Game 123: Tigers 5, Indians 2
by afh4 on Aug 21, 2010 11:57 PM EDT
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The Indians lost again today and, frankly, you can probably imagine how it went. Max Scherzer was able to dominate with only a few hitches in his giddyup-he's a pitcher with plus stuff who struggles when you're patient and can tee off on mistakes. The Indians aren't particularly good at anything as an offensive club, let alone patient or mistake-punishing, so their performance was correspondingly uninspiring.
Tribe starter Josh Tomlin finally got the trouble he'd been flirting with in the majors, getting bounced after 7 hits, 5 runs, 2 BB's and 6 innings. I'm open to someone with scouting knowledge convincing me that Tomlin's a player to watch but his major league numbers are classic Fangraphs-Branded Fool's Gold. You don't succeed if you don't miss bats or get groundballs. Tomlin seems like a nice guy and it's awesome he got to play in the majors for a bit-I don't begrudge the guy his brief time in the sun. However, it's going to end sooner, not later. Notably, whoever's playing Indians' beat guy today (Alex DiFilippo, no disrespect intended) said of Tomlin:
Tomlin gave up two runs in the first inning, a single run in the fourth and two more in the fifth. He looked off his game, as his velocity and command appeared to be out of sync.
I guess the MLB At Bat numbers play this out a bit, as he worked from 83-89 with his cutter, sinker and four-seamer but, honestly, I'm not sure we should expect Josh Tomlin to remain in any kind of sync. There are very few interesting things happening with the Tribe right now, especially with the resurgent Michael Brantley back on the shelf and the formerly resurgent Matt LaPorta now just insurgent, acting in opposition of his own modest success. I'll try to highlight a couple of items of wonder, though:
- Travis Hafner, for all the crap he still takes in Tweetletown, is, actually, fine when he plays. Hafner's OPS readings by month (starting with Mar/Apr) are 664, 909, 761, 839, 984. Overall OPS is 809. DH ain't what it used to be (or maybe it never was what I thought it was) and, while Hafner's contract and health status make him something southwest and opposite of the word "valuable", his production is not in and of itself infuriating. Your 2010 Indians: not inherently infuriating-only infuriating in context!
- Giovanni (vany?) Soto went again tonight for Lake County and he was not special; however, he's struck out 27 in 27 IP for the LC Captains and, while he's got a bad homerun problem right now, appears to be more than fair value for Jhonny Peralta and his sub 700 OPS. Peralta, for his part, isn't carrying any grudges and has done nothing to hurt the Indians in this series. Anybody else think Peralta might be an NRI somewhere next year?
- We might as well start arguing about what's in Chun-Hsiu Chen's craw in his ID photo (early reports indicate "Ryan GoleskI's career") because he's officially nearing the center of the radar screen. He had another big night tonight, with a walk and a double, he's improved his plate discipline in the transition from A to A+ and he's going to finish the year having smoked two levels from a key defensive position (though who knows if his career at catcher will last).
- If you haven't heard, Jason Knapp made his full-season debut for the Indians yesterday. He was everything advertised, fanning 7 in just 4 IP while not surrendering a hit. Knapp, still just 19, has the potential to change the Indians minor league landscape substantially with a healthy 2011. The Indians have long lacked in impact arms among their pitching prospects, instead stockpiling pitchers who rely on precision and guile until they reach the major leagues, at which point they fail miserably while relying on precision and guile. I wrote just a few days that Carrasco has an impact arm and he, along with Knapp and Justin Masterson, were seemingly acquired in direct response to the Indians lack of "nasty." Knapp is the crown jewel of this whole endeavor, at least from what we've heard. If you want to get yourself excited in anticipation of having you dreams crushed, here's your pre-injury quote:
Finally, let me just ask the Indians personally, if y'all are going to be this bad can you at least be spectacular in some way? Donald, can you yell at Tomlin in the dugout? Valbuena, are you willing to leak a report about Andy Marte mocking Acta's hats? Hafner, can you explain, in detail, what you do with all your money and why you deserve it?
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Tomlin Shmonlin. Who cares. Anything we ever out of this guy as Coach Finstock in Teen Wolf said… would be “cream cheese”.
My point is more LaPorta. He guesses more at the plate than Casey Blake ever did. The half swings? The deep slumps? I thought this guy was supposed to have the “high floor”. The way he swings down on the ball? I have close to zero confidence on this guy. Anyone who actually sees a decent future with this guy, I’m all ears. Not to mention his first base defense. I sit stunned at the guys we’ve been trotting out to 1B who feel like they need to range right on a grounder in the hole and then not make it back to the bag, not knowing that even a below average 2B-man can get to that ball. Garko… now LaPorta. Isn’t that defensive reflex kind of innate?
I know Jay has remarked (I think anyway) that the offense should be all right down the line. Why is this again? I probably have rose-colored hate glasses on LaPorta but what do we have exactly? A bunch of 750 OPS no-field middle-infielders? Choo is a Top Ten in the majors talent of course. We’re relying on… a post micro-fracture surgery Sizemore. A supposedly fully recovered Santana. A 400 plate appearance if we’re lucky no power 800 OPS Hafner. That was a fantastic “fill in the number” plate appearance stretch by Brantley before he turned his ankle over swinging the bat. I guess I’m not seeing it.
We’re still miles away from contention. In the middling AL Central.
While we’re making comparisons to Blake, I want to take my Nix one one step further: Hammy said tonight that he takes a ton of called-third strikes. And I realized “my god, he’s right—JUST LIKE BLAKE!”
READ THIS COLETTI
Yeah, once pitchers figured out not to throw fastballs middle-in, Nix has had absolutely no clue. I know that Acta stated that one of the reasons why they wanted to look at him more is that he was considered one of the top 50 players when he entered the draft (I don’t know if this is true), but objective and subjective analysis shows me that he doesn’t have the bat-to-ball ability to be a good hitter. He’s too reliant on pitchers making mistakes.
Jay is wrong about the offense. It’s a problem, though not as big a problem as not having a starting rotation. The young Tigers’ pitchers have been impressive, even if Porcello is in retrograde, but the Tribe rotation doesn’t augur well for a parade down East Ninth anytime in the next three (or four) years, even if Chuck becomes general manager or president of baseball operations.
I agree that it’s a problem right now, all I’ve said is that it’s a problem that the current regime (dating back to 1991 one could argue) has dealt with effectively, and pretty consistently.
You’ll see.
Historically, Shapiro’s teams scored runs, but not for the past two seasons. I think the team figured it had the offense covered and focused developmentally on pitching. Then Hafner disappeared, Grady fell off the cliff, Peralta diminished, Victor left, and suddenly you have no one left who can hit. Add in the lack of development from Valbuena, LaPorta, Brantley, Crowe, Marson, etc. and you have a seriously deficient offense.
Well, the ball jumps off LaPorta’s bat. That’s one thing. To me, he’s a bit too aggressive, though his walk totals haven’t been horrible. But I think he’ll settle into being a .280/.350/.500-ish kind of player, but he won’t get to that point until 2012. And I think his defense is greatly improved from a year ago, this week’s hiccups not withstanding. Of course, about anyone would look good in comparison to Branyan.
I’ll be shocked if he slugs .500 regularly. He’ll struggle to reach .350 OBP, too. He guesses too much, lots of in-between swings. Perhaps this trait goes away as he becomes more comfortable, but I’m not sure he hits .270. I’d guess—and this is if he’s a success—.260/.340/.450. He may be one of those guys who impresses everyone with how the ball jumps off his bat, because that certainly is impressive, but he may not have sufficient contact skills to demonstrate his abilities on a regular basis.
By no means is a 790 OPS a success for a first baseman.
You are basically saying his upside is Franklin Gutierrez, without the legs.
If you’re trying to scare me with that comp, you’re not. I was about to add “not good for a first baseman” so you wouldn’t come up with your stock variant on positional value, but I figured, aw, that’s not really necessary, is it?
I’m not sure that’s his level, but I think Tribejay, who is very perceptive in these matters, may have overestimated Matola. Everyone is intrigued with the way the ball jumps off his bat. But that’s not enough.
I have no real criticism for what you’ve said, I just wanted to make clear how negative of a projection you’ve made.
I am just dreading another round of neo-Garko appreciation. I say, this guy basically sucks, Chuck says, but he’s the best hitter on the team!, big snoozefest.
Which might still make him unworthy of being in a major-league lineup, at a non-skill position. You see what I mean? It’s already tedious.
It is tedious, you’re right. But Trevor Crowe is unworthy of being in a major league lineup. But there he is. And what is the option? Shutting down? The point is: Absent any options, he plays even if he’s unworthy.
I’d be more concerned with the whole “guesses too much, lots of in-between swings” stuff if his K rate was high…but it isn’t. His walk rate has improved this year. He’s hit well in the minors. He was a top-10 draft pick. I just don’t see the reason to be that down on him because he’s been in a slump.
I don’t think he’s a big-ceiling guy, but I’m pretty confident he’ll be a productive RH bat. The Tribe will need it, since in two years he’ll probably be the only RH bat (along with two switch-hitters) in the lineup.
I’m sure I’m down on him more because he is in a slump. His numbers in Columbus were impressive, but he’s had nearly 500 PAs in the bigs.
It’s possible he won’t be in the lineup in two years. He already has 513 plate appearances in the major leagues. .244/.310/.393
Not many players get 500 PAs in a row. Is Matola that exceptional that we must grant him these indulgences?
Hell yes he is. #7 overall pick in the draft, highly regarded enough to be the centerpiece of a deadline deal for the reigning AL Cy Young.
And let’s be serious here, how much of an indulgence is it, really, on the 2009-2011 Cleveland Indians?
You could make the case that this particular rebuilding phase depends a lot on Matola.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Aug 26, 2010 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions
I understand that there aren’t any other options when it comes to a righthanded bat. So I don’t begrudge the plate appearances. But to disregard LaPorta’s appalling play so far—.244/.310/.393 in 513 plate appearances, surely not the numbers of a “#7 overall pick,” “highly regarded…centerpiece”—and suggest if he just got all those 500 plate appearances in a row he’d be okay, is too generous. Injury surely screwed him up, but I’ve seen enough of him now to wonder if he is ever going to hit well enough to be a major league starter, let alone a solid player.
Just wait, once the season ends he’s going to come out with a revelation that he’s been playing with two broken limbs and the front office preferred that he play through it.
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Aug 26, 2010 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
So I don’t begrudge the plate appearances.
Leaving us not much to scrape over, but let’s try anyway …
But to disregard LaPorta’s appalling play so far—.244/.310/.393 in 513 plate appearances, surely not the numbers of a "#7 overall pick," "highly regarded…centerpiece"—and suggest if he just got all those 500 plate appearances in a row he’d be okay, is too generous.
a. I don’t disregard the numbers.
I disagree that those are “surely” not the numbers of an elite hitting prospect … sometimes a guy just takes a while to adjust, and he has played hurt at least part of the time, too. It’s not a Josh Barfield or Brandon Phillips-style four-month unmitigated disaster, it’s at least slightly more complicated than that.c. Still, I don’t assume that all would be better had his opportunity gone more smoothly and/or continuously.
Incidentally, I disagree with Manhat that Matola is especially pivotal to this rebuild. He’s here to be a Konerko, not a Sizemore.
I do have my doubts about him, too, however.
Absolutely love the opening paragraph.
The radio fellas said on a couple occasions that Hombin’s velocity was markedly down tonight—and it’s a problem he’s always had late in seasons—and the reason he’s often been relegated to the ’pen.
Also! What’s up with that CP54 tweet? Is it really him? Because I don’t like it.
Going back in his previous comments re: surgery, it looks like it really is him. Looks like he made similar comments near the end of last season.
Do you blame him?
by supermarioelia on Aug 22, 2010 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions
No, but it doesn’t make me happy that our closer looks forward to the offseason.
Bothers me less than Huff’s %&$@ though—that’s for sure.
Less time for hunting, fishing, and demolition derbies during the season.
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Aug 22, 2010 1:53 AM EDT up reply actions
I was thinking about Jhonny—how he could go from making serious money in 2010 to being a minimum (or close) NRI in 2011. But I have to believe somebody in the NL will sign him to a contract and put him on their 40.
Re Valbuena – I don’t know about the ring finger, but his middle finger looks awfully swollen.
Hafner has a 983 OPS at home this year and .888 ops against righties. Maybe he should be platooned and not face a single lefty ever again.
Not sure I understand much of anything you said about Chen.
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
Yeah, I’m no sure I understand what you were trying to say about Chen, either.
Nice job, Andrew. A great write-up almost compensates for a terrible game. Almost.
by ken from alexandria on Aug 22, 2010 7:52 AM EDT up reply actions
I think he is saying that as a young catcher with pretty great hitting numbers, Chen is someone who should be talked about a lot more. I haven’t crunched all the numbers yet, but I think you are going to find he ranks very highly in my off-season list. It is hard to get a sense of how well he works with pitchers as a catcher given his youth and international language issues…but he is certainly a possibility to make a future position transition for Santana more palatable.
Andrew, I think you’re right about Tomlin. As mentioned above, his velocity looked down tonight. I think he can be a good pitcher if he is able to maintain his stuff and be a strike-thrower. But there’s probably a major question about the first point. If he doesn’t have his best stuff, it will be tough to survive.
I think the last couple of years has shown that when Hafner’s shoulder is feeling good, he’s still a good hitter. But he’ll have a few good games in a row and then go through a stretch where he can’t get around on the fastball. We’re about 4 years into this thing, so I’ve pretty much given up hope of him being productive for a full year.
Next, check out the DiaTriber’s Lazy Sunday with our 2000 to 2007 Mirabelli regime draft record. I knew it was bad but PC’s breaking it down by WAR was a new level for me.
“Tony Sipp: 0.3 (0.5 as an Indian)”
Whom else did Sipp play for?
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Aug 23, 2010 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I noticed many other things you wrote, too. This was the only thing I pointed out in this thread on LGT. Was it simply a typo? I’ll admit I’m not exactly an expert in the WAR stat or how it works.
There’s really not much to say because, strategy or no strategy, we won’t know if the 2008-2010/2008, 2010 drafts are any more or less successful than past drafts until the results are in. And they are certainly not in yet. Likewise we did not judge the success or failure of picking Sowers based on his dominance of AA.
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Aug 24, 2010 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions
And if anyone did, it was premature evaluation, so to speak.
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Aug 24, 2010 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions
And just to be clear, it was not my intention to imply anything negative about your article as a whole by pointing out that minor detail about sipp.
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Aug 24, 2010 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions
No worries. I’m just pissed that I missed it.
by The DiaTriber on Aug 24, 2010 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions
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