Game 109: Red Sox 6, Indians 2
Josh Tomlin is now three starts into his major league career. All three starts have been good, but, he's not a pitcher I'm prepared to embrace without reservations. Tomlin's pitched 19.1 major league innings and in that time he's struck out 13, walked 4 and, here's the part that bugs me, recorded 34 flyball outs versus only 17 groundball outs. This ratio, of 0.5 GB:FB, is really bad-it's the worst among guys who've appeared for the Indians as starters (yes, worse than Huff), it'd be the worst among all qualifying AL starters if he qualified and it's not all that different than the admittedly more tenable 0.76 he put up in Columbus. I don't think his major league stats thus far mean much except that they reflect what we'd already learned at Columbus: he lives in the air, a place that few, if any, pitchers with his mediocre stuff can survive.
Tomlin appears to do some things really well: he spots his fastball on the corners and low in the zone, his breaking ball appears surprising serviceable and everyone involved with Cleveland is falling all over themselves praising his makeup. I don't want to bury the guy and as long as he's performing, great. He's faced three superior offensive teams and handled each with aplomb-maybe we're watching the birth of the next Kevin Slowey: an effective flyball pitcher.
Tonight, Tomlin pitched brilliantly early on, retiring the first ten Red Sox he faced. He ran into a heap of trouble in the fourth when he gave up a single to Scutaro and, after retiring David Ortiz to get the second out of the inning, walked Victor Martinez and J.D. Drew. This brought Adrian Beltre, who's doing wonders for the "contract year" argument for the second time in his career, to the plate. Tomlin left a fastball down the middle and Beltre obliged him, delivering a grand slam. This erased Cleveland's 1-0 lead, which had been earned on a Shin-Soo Choo tater to center, and gave Boston's starter, Daisuke Matsuzaka, all he would need to win the game.
Dice-K, perhaps the only player in the league who's nickname exists exclusively as a phonetic explanation of his real name (what else could it be? Matsuzaka hasn't been a true strikeout artist since his first year in America), cruised tonight, using his 4-seam fastball 62% of the time and dialing it up to 95 mph on a handful of occasions. The Indians hitters looked generally clueless against him and he gave Tito Francona, still wearing those Ben Franklin glasses and his favorite red warm-up top, eight strong innings. After the Red Sox stretched their lead to 6-1 by beating up on Frank Hermann, who the league seems to have figured out to some degree, Francona tried to steal the last three outs of the game by using the husk of what used to be shut-down reliever Hideki Okajima. Okajima had plans of his own and gave up a run and left two on before handing the game to Jonathan Papelbon. Papelbon had two outs to record and, after exposing Andy Marte's bat speed as less than adequate, he made things interesting by walking Shelley Duncan to load the bases, allowing Trevor Crowe to come to the plate and represent, at least metaphorically, the tying run. Things were briefly tense, at least for those not "in the Crowe know", before Crowe did what Crowe does (well, besides take terrible routes in the outfield) and struck out.
Apparently, Michael Brantley will be joining the Indians tomorrow and manning centerfield and the leadoff spot for most of the remaining schedule. This is not a moment too soon, as Crowe has again shown exactly what he can bring to the table for Cleveland: not a great deal. He has been terrible in many ways but his 475 OPS against lefthanders deserves special mention. I have no idea if Brantley is prepared to be in the majors either but he's responded well to his demotion and his 817 OPS in Columbus is already significantly better than Crowe's 761 in the same environs, as an older, assumedly more sagacious, man.
In ephemera, two things ought to be remembered. The first is that, just hours after I was boldly proclaiming that he could never play the outfield, let alone move around the grocery store without a Rascal, Jordan Brown played left field in Fenway with no incident. He wasn't required to make any plays but, still, Acta is willing to trot him out there. The other footnote to attach to this game is that Acta, with 3B coach Steve Smith suspended for telling Tito Francona his favorite red warm-up top looked like a mumu, coached 3B himself. He didn't do a whole lot but he looked cool as hell out there.
So, the Indians finish their road trip at 4-3 and are now 12-9 since the break, having faced all contending clubs. They'll welcome the Twins, Orioles and M's (GRUDGE MATCH OF THE FAILED SABERMETRICIANS!) before heading back out on the road.
Highest WPA
Lowest WPA
Choo
.086
Trevor Crowe
-.159
Shelley Duncan
.027
Josh Tomlin
-.129
Luis Valbuena
.025
Lou Marson
-.100
And now, if you aren't devoted to Tom Hamilton to the extent that it will upset you, a little Tom Hamilton analysis:
The Good Tom Hamilton: In the bottom of the 8th inning, after watching David Ortiz, upon taking a called strike, enter into his customary elliptical orbit away from and then back towards homeplate, expressing his disgust with the call through slow-motion locomotion, Hamilton remarked that the home plate umpire must not have received the memo from MLB offices that detailed how any pitch that a Boston Red Sox hitter takes is automatically a ball. Go get 'em, Tom.
The Bad Tom Hamilton: In the top of the 8th inning, Hamilton made no effort to hide his admiration for the Red Sox starting staff, gushing that they had "5 legitimate aces", hitting each syllable in "legitimate" hard with his radio voice, letting us know that this statement was no snow job. In between expressing his excitement for the upcoming Fenway ritual of belting out Neil Diamond's "Sweet Caroline" (seriously), the five pitchers Hamilton was trying to induct into the hall of fame are:
Jon Lester: 146.2 IP/144 ERA+
Clay Buchholz: 111.0 IP/170 ERA+
John Lackey: 140.2 IP/98 ERA+
Daisuke Matsuzaka: 89.2 IP/105 ERA+
Josh Beckett: 66.1 IP/78 ERA+
Boston's five starting pitchers are very good. Two of them have, in fact, performed like legitimate aces and of the five, it's not a bad bet that some pair of them will perform like legitimate aces next year as well. However, the staff has been beset by injuries (like many old media guys, Hamilton never seems to have grasped that health is a skill), Lackey appears to be in a straight up decline phase, and Matsuzaka and Beckett have never been quite as good as their most vocal fans would like you to believe.
None of this is to disparage these guys or the staff as a whole-it's one of the best in the AL. It's just to express a little frustration about how Hamilton allows himself to get sucked into the mythos of the Red Sox and the Yankees and ends up saying things that are not only plainly wrong, they're hyperbolic to an extent that there's a level of willful ignorance at play. Some admiration for well-constructed non-Cleveland clubs is appropriate but Hamilton's fawning is not only tiresome, it's also often false.
The Absurd Tom Hamilton: In cautioning about getting too optimistic about Carlos Santana's upcoming knee surgery, Hamilton said, "If the good Lord had made our knees to be better with surgery, then every time a baby was born it would be having knee surgery right away, and I'm not seeing many infants having knee surgeries."
The best I can make of this is that Hamilton is imagining a world in which the Almighty wants us all to have our knees modified in a specific way and so, instead of just modifying our bodies using divine powers (I know, I know), S/He communicates to the leading, earth-bound, medical authorities that infants ought to have their knees operated on at birth.
Whatever, Hamilton. At least you're not Rosenhaus.
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his 475 OPS against lefthanders deserves special mention
Wow. I had no idea his splits were this bad.
It sure is nice to have multiple guys here who can write—in completely different ways—great recaps.
Acta should have wore the hat in woodsmeister’s avatar instead of a batting helmet.
I will say this for Tomlin though, his fly balls aren’t hit hard.
I’m glad that Hammy’s weird knee comments got ridiculed, because damn was it silly. Not even considering the cost of knee surgery.
Ring Lardener was the H.G. Wells of baseball.
by afh4 on Aug 6, 2010 8:09 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Thanks Andrew, but Lardner’s work was on another planet. And he did it on a typewriter; if I didn’t have use of the edit button, the recaps would read like Jack Keefe’s missives.
Pretty sure he didn’t have another day job, though.
by Jay on Aug 6, 2010 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Crowe waits a split second on that inside fastball and it was a tie game. He knew it was coming, just got too anxious.
The disparity between the Marte and Duncan AB in that last inning is so telling. Marte could not for the life of him spit on those splitters and Duncan didn’t even budge.
Truth. Those ABs were very interesting. Crowe’s approach was fine for the first four pitches, but after the pulled foul ball you could see frustration form upon his brow as he lurched with wild-eyed anger at a pitch beyond the zone.
Eulogies for the ninth:
Valbuena – defiant
Duncan – stoic
Crowe – tragic
Marte – comic
From, Ben
Valbuena “defiant”? What the hell? He went down like a sleepy manatee.
by MTF on Aug 6, 2010 8:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Nickname alert: Valbuena = Sleepy Manatee?
"If Brown is the answer, then you’re asking the wrong question." - Ryan
It was a defiant manatee.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Aug 6, 2010 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Who said we’re not?
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Aug 6, 2010 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn’t listen to the game, but under The Good Tom Hamilton, I’m pretty sure you forgot that he probably called an excellent game, as he does night in and night out. Painting a vivid, real-time, and detailed picture of the action as it happens on the field, with multiple actors moving at once, is a skill I don’t think 30 men in the sport have.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Aug 5, 2010 11:23 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
And I know Suzyn Waldman doesn’t have it.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Aug 5, 2010 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
There’s a warning right before the jump! Telling you not to read it!
Kidding, but I don’t and haven’t ever particularly gotten the Hamilton love. I think he’s solidly above average, I think, and I do agree that his basic game calling is his strength. But his weaknesses in evaluating players statistically and in filling any kind of dead air are both things that bother me, a lot.
I don’t want this to turn into “Let’s list his pros and cons,” but one thing I appreciate about Tom, and I mean this in all honesty: He knows more about our prospects than anyone on the radio in Cleveland. And he’s the play-by-play guy. Half the post-game guys/analysts/whatever you want to call them—that goes for TV as well—barely know who Chisenhall is, let alone Kipnis or Phelps.
Actually, nevermind, this is turning into an indictment of the rest of those guys. Which is well-earned.
Steel Nick
By the way, excellent summary. I actually thought it was by Ryan for most of it. And I mean that in the best of ways.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Aug 6, 2010 6:06 AM EDT up reply actions
What play-by-play announcers are good at discussing the statistics?
I’m not saying Hammy is any good at the stats; I just don’t know if an announcer can speak to the masses in these terms.
Personally, I’ve grown to appreciate Hammy as one of the best- he pulls no punches and rips on the home team as much as the opponent. While most announcers toe the company line, Hammy is a free speaker. I really think that is something that sets Tait, Hammy, and Donovan apart.
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge..." C. Darwin
by Spidey on Aug 6, 2010 8:36 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Knowing Matsuzaka is not an ace doesn’t require a degree from Fangraphs.
by afh4 on Aug 6, 2010 8:48 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
Not failing to know Matsuzaka is not an ace doesn’t require a lack of not having a degree from Fangraphs.
by Logodaedalus on Aug 6, 2010 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Does he still call Sunday Indians games on Channel 4 or has that unfortunate experiment played itself out, yet?
My primitive mind can't grasp these concepts.
Good. What a train wreck he was. I only caught a couple of games that he called but I remember thinking that it didn’t seem like he really even knew or liked baseball. He’d use completely out-of-place verbs like, “He obliterates one into left field for a solid base hit!”
My primitive mind can't grasp these concepts.
If the ball were truly obliterated—that is, destroyed utterly of all trace, indication, or significance—the left fielder would be unable to field the ball, and the runner would presumably have an inside the park home run, not a solid base hit.
This was Jhonny’s preferred method of hitting them.
by YoDaddyWags on Aug 6, 2010 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I love Hamilton as a play-by-play guy; I don’t tune in to hear his analysis and I basically disagree with a good portion of it. He should probably keep his medical opinions to himself until he gets a chance to run them by Will Carroll. The key to enjoying Tommy is to focus on the narrative and not get bogged down in the little things like the definition of a “legitimate ace.”
Come on, four billion!
He should probably keep his medical opinions to himself until he gets a chance to run them byWill Carrollan actual doctor.
Fixed.
"If Brown is the answer, then you’re asking the wrong question." - Ryan
Has your “real doctor” had three books published? Didn’t think so. Game, set, match to Carroll.
Come on, four billion!
Did you read any of Carroll’s tweets immediately after Santana’s injury? Carroll is all about instant speculation. He has a great deal of knowledge, and he’s certainly willing to share it, but he often tends to express it before all the facts are in. I’m willing to stipulate to Carroll’s knowledge of sports injuries and how they can affect an athlete’s performance – that is his area of expertise and he’s carved out a nice niche for himself there, but only after a diagnosis has been made by an actual doctor. Sometimes his early speculation is frightening and should be taken with a major grain of salt.
"If Brown is the answer, then you’re asking the wrong question." - Ryan
Has your "real doctor" had three books published?
many of them have published journal articles.
I have been complimented many times and they always embarrass me; I always feel that they have not said enough.
by notthatnoise on Aug 6, 2010 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
The response left me wondering if there was ambiguity in what I said, so I took a moment to clarify.
Come on, four billion!
Well this doofus has had three books published also. Next time you have a heart attack, give him a call.
Resident LGT results-oriented boob.
Guess you’re saying you don’t like his book(s).
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Aug 6, 2010 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I am with you. I want the radio guy to be entertaining and keep me current on the game even if I don’t agree with his assertions. Hamilton can legitimately get me excited during a big play, which I don’t think I can say for many other announcers.
"I spoil a lot of people with my play." -Lebron James
Red Barber famously had a two-minute egg timer that he brought to games with him to remind himself that people were constantly tuning in to the game and that he needed to constantly remind people of the score and situation (inning, runners on base, etc.) every two minutes. Hammy gets on digressions where he forgets to give score and situation, and it is extremely frustrating if I’ve been at a meeting, or running errands, to wait and wait and wait before finding out game status. Somebody needs to get Hammy a two-minute egg timer.
"If Brown is the answer, then you’re asking the wrong question." - Ryan
Ha. He sort of gets a pass on this because he followed Herb.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Aug 6, 2010 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Herb’s been out of the booth since 1997. Hammy has had 13 years now to exhibit some professional development regarding score and situation.
"If Brown is the answer, then you’re asking the wrong question." - Ryan
by woodsmeister on Aug 6, 2010 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
I disagree. The best announcers—pace Red Barber—are those who ramble and digress and take listeners far offtrack. Herb Score and Phil Rizzuto and Harry Caray are good examples of this sort of broadcasting. If I need the score I look online. I want to hear about a parking-lot incident Scooter had in Toronto.
If I need the score I look online.
Not when Herb Score, Phil Rizzuto and Harry Caray were calling games, you didn’t. There’s got to be a happy medium, some combination of provider of information and befuddled old man.
I grew up in Toledo, pre-cable and pre-internet. In the mid- to late- 80s, WFRO Fremont carried Indians games and they came in crystal clear. But many seasons I had to rely on good weather to get me even a shred of a signal from WTAM. So in those days, I remember listening to Ernie Harwell a lot on WJR. I think he’s a good example of that happy medium. Vin Scully’s radio version is another example. When he was calling the Game of the Week I always felt he was a little too anecdotal and that really wasn’t him.
My primitive mind can't grasp these concepts.
I don’t have the Internet in my car.
"If Brown is the answer, then you’re asking the wrong question." - Ryan
by woodsmeister on Aug 6, 2010 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
To be clear, I meant that he gets a pass from most Indians fans, not that he deserves one.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Aug 6, 2010 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions
In the top of the 8th inning, Hamilton made no effort to hide his admiration for the Red Sox starting staff, gushing that they had “5 legitimate aces”, hitting each syllable in “legitimate” hard with his radio voice, letting us know that this statement was no snow job.
What was even more irritating with this is how he spent airtime immediately before Choo’s solo blast excoriating Matsuzaka for being a stubborn and inconsistent waste of money. For laughs, he then asserted that you’d be far better off buying with a Toyota instead as far as dropping big money on trustworthy Japanese imports was concerned. After this setup, Choo’s HR seemed like an almost impossibly perfect punchline.
To hear Hammy do a seemingly complete about-face on the subject two hours later definitely caught me off guard.
“If the good Lord had made our knees to be better with surgery, then every time a baby was born it would be having knee surgery right away, and I’m not seeing many infants having knee surgeries.”
I was staring at my receiver, probably looking rather confused and thinking “did he really just say that?” I love me some Hammy, but that was pure crazy.
--
"Most players will tell you that even when they're 100%, they're not really 100% ... if that makes sense."
I like what I see in Tomlin. His first three starts have been against contending teams, and he doesn’t seem fazed by them at all. I’d like to see more ground outs from him, though. His three starts are a small sample size, though, so we’ll just have to see how he continues to pitch.
I hope Brantley does better this time around.
Agreed on all points. This:
M’s (GRUDGE MATCH OF THE FAILED SABERMETRICIANS!)
…really tickled me.
I wish Acta had worn one of his fedoras, fine be damned.
Steel Nick
for the heck of it, google imaged “manny acta fedora”
result #2:

THERE IS A MANNY ACTA BOBBLEHEAD?
Also! #7: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/dcsportsbog/mannybigtrain1.jpg
An image of mine comes in at #14: http://cdn3.sbnation.com/fan_shot_images/68359/parrtay.jpg
The Washington Post picture is incredible. It’s of course Acta wearing Jean Paul Gaultier at Fashion Week last year.
From, Ben
turns out most of the pics that come up are from the same article (worth a read). His Burlington Coat Factory shout out matches what he told Castro this year.
I grew up listening to Marty Breneman and Joe Niekro call Reds games on nights when 1100 wouldn’t come in. As a result of that, I can’t imagine ever criticizing Tom Hamilton. Those two made a complete mockery of the game of baseball.
I wouldn’t say that on a Reds blog. Marty Brennemen is virtually the major of Cincinnati and Joe Nuxhall is in the pantheon with all the rest of the dead baseball gods.
"If Brown is the answer, then you’re asking the wrong question." - Ryan
…(like many old media guys, Hamilton never seems to have grasped that health is a skill)
Old media guys, I think, tend to view health as a skill. One often hears players described as “injury prone,” or unable to “stay healthy,” even when many injuries are random and beyond the control of players.
Also, Mr. Hamilton has a point about surgery, even if it dismays those who are sanguine about Santana’s prospects. If it were such a good thing everyone would have it done.
Maybe Tommy John is a better comparison than infants.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Aug 6, 2010 6:08 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think it’s accurate to paint the situation as Hamilton telling us something we don’t want to hear about Santana’s knee surgery. Firstly,
his point is so obvious that if Hawk Harrelson made it, no one would dare try to give him
any credit. Secondly, the reason the comment is being highlighted is not because I’m sanguine about Santana’s joints, it’s because a detour into deity-inspired surgery stands out in the context of a baseball game.
by afh4 on Aug 6, 2010 8:14 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The knee thing sounds like a legitimately stupid thing to say. But I agree with Ryan’s earlier comment. Over the course of 162 games you’re going to blurt the occasional absurdism. And as far as analysis goes, I just don’t think the crossover from announcers and columnists and beat writers in mainstream media outlets who rely on sabermetrics and peripheral statistics to speak to the masses has happened yet. I’m not going to hate on Hammy for talking baseball like my dad when most of his listeners are, well, like my dad. That doesn’t make him right when he says Dice-K is an ace, but I’ll bet it makes him what he is. Which is to say, when he’s at work he’s not reading BP thinking about whether or not he should link the great story he just read about the merits (or lack thereof) of UZR to his like-minded buddies on LGT.
My primitive mind can't grasp these concepts.
Tomlin is looking like a very solid pitcher. Number 3 upside, I think.
LGT's resident moderate Yankee hating fan.
Also, as bad as his GB% has been, he’s still sporting a 4.35 xFIP. Not great, but not terrible either. And more strikeouts are definitely on the way.
LGT's resident moderate Yankee hating fan.
I like his strike-throwing ability, and he’s athletic. He has a sneaky fastball, but he doesn’t really have any sharp breaking pitches…so I’m not sure why you’re so confident about the strikeouts.
In the fourth inning last night, it was the first time I saw him pitch scared. And you saw what happened. If he stays away from that, he has a chance. If he has those lapses from time to time, he won’t make it.
the important thing is it only lasted one inning. he was great after he had trouble, and that grand slam is pretty much a worst case scenario. If he has one bad inning every 3 starts, that’s fine by me, I’m just not sold he can keep doing it, mostly because of the strikeouts and fly balls.
I have been complimented many times and they always embarrass me; I always feel that they have not said enough.
actually I take that back, 13 Ks in 19 innings is ok.
I have been complimented many times and they always embarrass me; I always feel that they have not said enough.
by notthatnoise on Aug 6, 2010 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
His swinging strike percentage is 11% right now, which is excellent. None of his pitches are very good, but luckily he’s got 6 of them.
LGT's resident moderate Yankee hating fan.
Doesn’t having six pitches make you an ace?
by Logodaedalus on Aug 6, 2010 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Today’s stats have a way of ruining all the fun. Tomlin pitched two fine games (one against the evil empire), which would have been cause for hope & happiness years ago. But now we have GB:FB, so any excitement can be swiftly dampened.
The issue is not harshing the buzz here, the issue is sustainability. Can a pitcher with his tendencies repeat these results, over and over again once big league coaching staffs compile a book on him? On those nights when he doesn’t have pinpoint control, I worry that he’ll get destroyed – his margin for error is extremely low.
"If Brown is the answer, then you’re asking the wrong question." - Ryan
I’m not doubting the stats – just observing how they change the enjoyment of the game. Maybe your hopes are eventually crushed, but at least you had hope.
The scathing effects of a skeptical, rational culture on our superstitious lives…
by DPS on Aug 6, 2010 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Maybe your hopes are eventually crushed, but at least you had hope.
I guess I need you to explain to me why false hope is a positive thing.
Come on, four billion!
if you never had hope, you’d feel bad all the time, at least with false hope you felt good at one point.
I have been complimented many times and they always embarrass me; I always feel that they have not said enough.
by notthatnoise on Aug 6, 2010 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions
That changes the argument though. Hope is not a bad thing, but I think false hope is. I hope things go well for the Indians, but I prefer to base that on the more probable developments rather than, say, slating Beau Mills at a corner infield position for the next ten years. I’d like my hopes to be based in reality; willful false hope is the apogee of foolishness.
Come on, four billion!
As long as it doesn’t affect your decisions, I think it’s okay. I mean, you certainly don’t want the people who are actually running the team to have it, and you don’t want it if you’re planning to gamble, but as a fan? Isn’t optimism (on a variety of time scales) what makes it all worthwhile?
by Logodaedalus on Aug 6, 2010 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m not saying that hope is bad. Optimism is a good thing. I’m cheering for what I recognize is an extremely unlikely event; I even wrote a fan post about it. What I’m saying is that either keeping yourself ignorant of facts that would temper your hope or willfully ignoring those facts during your day-to-day experience is foolish.
To get back to what DixonCayne said, why is it so bad that we would acknowledge that Tomlin’s GB:FB is cause for concern? We realize that his current ratio makes his current level of success extremely difficult to sustain; why should that “ruin all the fun”?
Come on, four billion!
No one said it was bad to acknowledge the stat or good to ignore it. I’m merely observing how today’s use of stats has changed fan enjoyment.
Baseball should be fun, shouldn’t it? We’d like to be excited by Tomlin’s next start and his next year’s starts. But knowing that continued success is unlikely, your enthusiasm is lessened. I accept that’s how it is today, but it makes the sport less enjoyable.
I think we fundamentally disagree on this point. More information, whether it portends good or bad for my team, makes me enjoy the game more, not less.
Come on, four billion!
by Joel D on Aug 6, 2010 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I disagree. Having more and better information doesn’t take away my enjoyment at all.
Besides, you could also turn this around the other way — maybe we have a pitcher with a bad ERA but the “advanced” stats show that he’s actually pitched pretty well and he’s just been unlucky, so he should be expected to improve. Wouldn’t that mean that today’s use of stats actually increased your fan enjoyment?
More stats doesn’t necessarily mean the information has to be good or bad for your team, just better.
. . . says the man from Columbus.
I think there’s an argument to be made that a bit of unwarranted optimism makes following sports more fun. Which is not to say we shouldn’t make rational assessments too.
by Logodaedalus on Aug 6, 2010 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
I think there’s an argument to be made that for all the information we still have at our disposal, unwarranted optimism runs rampant more or less undiminished and undeterred.
by Jay on Aug 6, 2010 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Comparing 2010 AL average (top line to follow) with your 15 most prolific flyball starters with K% below 18 (second line, below) and your 15 most prolific groundball starters with K% below 18:
IP H/9 R/9 ER/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
9 8.92 4.51 4.19 0.98 3.26 6.79
9 9.77 5.04 4.74 1.19 2.83 5.97
9 9.05 4.35 4.06 0.87 2.83 5.46
So there’s legitimate concern about those FB, low K guys. Four Tribesmen in the low K/high GB list, by the way. But you knew that.
It goes the other way, too, though. The numbers can show that a good start was even better, or a bad start wasn’t really that bad.
by Jay on Aug 6, 2010 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions
I kind of feel like a pitcher could be league average just by throwing 85 and never walking a batter. I thought Sowers was going to do that for a little while, but he walked more and more batters each year and then transmogrified into Jello. Or something.
Tomlin’s going to give up some homers with those ratios, but I think the question is whether he can come back after the homers and keep throwing strikes, or if — like Sowers — he’ll nibble at the corners and look terrified. He did a good job rebounding from Beltre’s blast last night, so that’s a good sign.
That’s even confirmed by other sources, as well.
by JulioBernazard on Aug 6, 2010 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
“allowing Trevor Crowe to come to the plate and represent, at least metaphorically,the tying run.”
I chuckled at that.
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
Do they record stats on what % of flyball outs are line drives or hard-hit balls?
It has looked like most the hitters have not been able to make good contact off Tomlin. Against Beltre he made a mistake pitch, but if he can limit those and exhibit good control, maybe he’ll pitch ok. (He also lost ability to throw strikes against the batters leading up to Beltre in that inning).
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
Like Chuck, I’m looking forward to a future when we can do statistics on the three parameters of batted balls: (1) angle from left to right, (2) angle from up to down, and (3) the horizontal component of velocity. Good hitters will tend to have high values for (3) and values of (2) that range roughly between zero and 45º. Good pitchers can make up for low strikeouts with soft air contact (low values of (3)) and/or ground balls (negative values of (2)).
I bet once we measure these things directly, strikeouts will seem less important, because we’ll be able to reduce the noisiness of BABIP.
by Logodaedalus on Aug 6, 2010 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I am not a fan of noise.
I have been complimented many times and they always embarrass me; I always feel that they have not said enough.
by notthatnoise on Aug 6, 2010 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Sounds like a good idea.
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Aug 6, 2010 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Do they record stats on what % of flyball outs are line drives or hard-hit balls?
Yes. 16.1% have been line drives.
It has looked like most the hitters have not been able to make good contact off Tomlin.Agree.
Scratch that, sort of. 16.1% of batted balls have been liners.
53.6% have been fly balls.
so… 16.1÷69.7=23%
Ultimately, the question with Tomlin is going to be whether he can (1) avoid walking people, because he’s not going to be erasing runners with GIDP and (2) keep balls in the air from becoming balls in the stands. Maybe he can add an old-timey windup, so my Paul Byrd flashback can be complete.
So far, his walk rate (5.6%) has been below average (8%). In the minors, it was generally in the 5-7% range. His HR/BIA has been declining since peaking at 8.7% in Kinston two years ago. In his three big league starts, it’s been 5.4%, again under the league average of 6.5%. You can take the averages how you will – we think he doesn’t strike people out, but he’s ever-so-slightly above average at that, too.
Same link: JLew back to Columbus. Sheesh. So much for rewarding him for manning up the other night.
My primitive mind can't grasp these concepts.
Hey, if he wants to stick with the big club like Tomlin, he needs to learn how to transfer that aggression to beating up bar patrons at the minor league level.
by KoolAidMan on Aug 6, 2010 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Has this been quoted elsewhere? Castrovince tweet:
The real Chris Perez just told me he’s a big fan of @PureRage_Perez. ~ Me too.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Aug 6, 2010 5:31 PM EDT reply actions 4 recs
Ha! Awesome!
--
"Most players will tell you that even when they're 100%, they're not really 100% ... if that makes sense."
I think my favorite part of this is that Perez now knows his nickname—Andrew’s invention from the Gimenez quote, which makes it an LGT original—and he’d be the kind of guy (I hope I hope) to make a sleeveless T that he wears around the clubhouse* saying “Pure Rage.”
*By clubhouse I also mean public charity events.
Steel Nick
Until then, that role belongs to Chris Perez, who showed, in catcher Chris Gimenez’s description, pure rage with runners on the corners and none out Tuesday night against the Yankees. Gimenez said Perez is fearless. He let out a primal scream when he struck out Mark Teixeira for the second out of that inning and did what Gimenez called “Jeter fist pump” when he got A-Rod to ground into a force out to end it. “I get fired up watching Perez,” Gimenez said.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Aug 7, 2010 1:49 AM EDT up reply actions

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