The OTHER Pitcher The Indians Lost
In the past couple of seasons, the Indians have traded away two all-star pitchers: Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia. This is well-trod ground, obviously. However, just before the 2009 season, the Indians dealt another guy who suddenly looks pretty good: Edward Mujica. When he was in Cleveland, Mujica shot through the minor leagues quickly and then--actually, I summarized this for the Indians Annual just before the 2009 season:
In 2005 and 2006, Mujica looked to be a master of what matters most for pitchers: preventing runs. He ended 2006 with an ERA of 1.92 between Akron, Buffalo, and Cleveland, having not allowed a single earned run over his first 46 innings in 2006-but he went on to post a 5.84 ERA over 2007 and 2008. Mujica's numbers were always a little off for a dominant reliever; he never got many strikeouts or groundouts and he always gave up too many fly balls. Pitchers who can't get strikeouts or groundouts usually have trouble surviving, since every hard-hit ball has a chance to be a home run. After the past two seasons, Mujica's 2005 and 2006 increasingly look like an extraordinary run of good luck-the fly balls just stayed in the park for 130 straight innings. With an average fastball, change, and curve, he never had the stuff to sustain those numbers. Mujica is out of options, so if he doesn't make the major league bullpen out of spring training, he'll have to pass through waivers before he report to Columbus. Clearly, Mujica is not a great bet to break camp with the club. Unless he domnates in the spring, look for him either to be claimed by a desperate NL team or to squeak through waivers and pitch in Columbus.
And, sure enough, Mujica was with San Diego to start 2009 via some kind of "conditional deal", a move that was a product of the roster crunch. At the time, we said it would be a PTBNL but, at this point, I can't determine that one was ever received. Regardless, as right as I was about Mujica's future destination, I appear very wrong about his ability to be an effective reliever.
Eddie never went back to the minors with San Diego and, in 2009, performed adequately. He still didn't look like any great shakes (7.3 K/9, 4.0 K/BB, 0.62 GB/FB) but he took advantage of his cavernous homepark, to the tune of a 2.94/5.18 home/road ERA split, and became a legitimate member of the middle of a major league bullpen.
2010, however, has been a different story. Mujica has found the strikeouts I was pining for (66 K's in 63.0 IP), totally eliminated BB's (6 on the year) and, though he's still much better at home than away (2.29/4.23 home/road ERA), he's suddenly a high leverage guy. His BB/9 is the second best in the majors among relievers and his K/BB is number one in the majors, just ahead of Rafael Betancourt.
Of all the things that get the CleCom hackles up, this little tale of redemption seems to have slipped through the cracks. I'm not sure Mujica's improvement is 100% real-he still lives in the air and he's going to have to keep that strikeout number up and the walk number down to remain the good not great reliever he's become. Still, his inherited-score% with San Diego over the last two seasons is about 20% and, in San Diego's improbable (and sputtering) run towards the playoffs, he's a key player. And, hey, he was in ESPN the magazine (p. 47 of Sept 20 issue)! So, here's to you, Ed. It's hard to really fault the Indians for shipping you out but I'm hoping like hell some of the less charming Indians fans don't figure out where you went.
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Yeah, I still check up on Eddie from time to time, and wonder if we would’ve had the same success had he stayed in Cleveland. Like you say, tho – hard to find fault anywhere, and I’m glad he;s doing well.
Wonder if he still has the nickname Ed “The Body” Mujica? Always liked him for the self-deprecating moniker.
Ifi t were anywhere else but SD, I might care a little bit. It’s really hard to give the FO a hard time on this guy. For the amount of turnover this bullpen saw from 2007-2009, it’s tough to think of many other guys that have had more chances (maybe Lewis or Perez?).
Considering how the first few months of the 2009 season turned out (for him and our team), it’s almost assured that Eddy Moo would have been shoved out the door early on when he struggled.
So, traded in early April or DFA’d at the end of May .. I think the end result would have been the same.
Things I won’t be worrying about:
- marginal relievers who underperformed in Cleveland overperforming for one, or several seasons on an NL team in pitcher friendly park
Well, I wouldn’t put too much stock in 25 games in a hitter’s season, and I’m not gonna put too much stock in this, either.
I think more speculation than claims, but I’m sure that I’ve overstated the case for or against something or someone at least a few times. My being wrong then doesn’t make you right now.
The methodology is that looking at splits for a reliever over a partial season ought to be taken with an entire pound of salt.
There are so many different opinions about which numbers are meaningful! And then, of course, what they mean.
From, Ben
I wonder also about the difference between speculation and claim. Would you say the difference is in intent or interpretation? Or does it inhere in language?
These questions might be moot. But maybe they help create a common ground.
From, Ben
The difference is hubris.
The overly eager amateur sabermetrician says, “The numbers say this! Any other conclusion is foolish, and exceptions will be extremely rare!”
The person who actually grasps statistics says, “Dude, it’s 100 PA. It may be suggestive of something, and it the context of historical trends may align with it as well, but nobody should ever be making any confident claims with only that amount of data to support it.”
When Austin Jackson got off to a really hot start this year (for about a month worth of at bats), there were a lot of articles written about how he was due to collapse. Sure, his average came down a bit since then, predictably, but overall he’s been a pretty decent singles-hitter this year and maintained his average at around .300 for most of the season.
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Sep 12, 2010 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
“Maintained his average” … not sure why I even care about batting average anyway, but when you talk about “maintaining,” that’s cumulative.
He batted .371 over his first 30 games. Over his last 103 games, he’s batting .283. That’s fine, but it’s not really “maintaining” jack. The real problem is that his slugging, predictably, plummeted from .508 (first 30) to .385 (last 103) — again, not cumulative, because what can we really learn from cumulative?
If he’s going to slug .385, he’s going to have a tough time staying in the majors.
Yes.
The excuse for strikeouts is when you balance them with XBH, because it’s that kind of swing that’s going to generate both.
Jackson is leading the league in strikeouts with 3 HRs.
Steel Nick
This “leading the league in strikeouts” thing bothers me a bit. It always annoyed me when people would use Sizemore’s top 5 status in strikeouts as some sort of evidence of his sucking. Leadoff hitters that remain healthy are going to be near the top in plate appearances.
Granted, Jackson’s K%, 27.9% is probably unacceptable going forward if he wants to maintain his current production.
However, Jackson is having a really nice season for a 23 year old and while his BABIP will surely drop, it’s also reasonable to expect him to cut his K%, up his BB%, and/or increase his power.
Those people talking about Grady’s striekouts were idiots. We’re not idiots.
Grady hit 85 HR over three years. He was Top 10 in WAR four years in a row. He didn’t have to worry about improving his hitting.
I don’t know where you got the idea that a batter will improve his K/BB magically as he gets older.
Let me be clear, Jackson is not in Sizemore’s league. That seems pretty obvious. My point in using Sizemore was that raw strikeout totals are much less effective when discussing a hitter than his rate.
Raw numbers are often helpful, but I don’t see how they serve a single purpose in this case.
As to your other point, based on observation, it seems that guys with a track record of success and the tools that Jackson possess are able to make improvements.
Given his numbers in the minors, I don’t think we are going to see big improvements either way in his BB/K rates, but I could see him making minor improvements in one or both categories.
Prodigious contact hitters who are relatively young in the minors often develop higher walk rates at higher levels — Sizemore himself did this, although he was rather young. But the reason this sometimes happens is because it’s an unusually good batting eye that is producing very high averages to begin with. I don’t see much reason to think Jackson is one of those guys.
I also am not aware of any age-curve type of progression that has hitters cutting down on strikeouts at higher levels. The only time you see a hitter cut down on strikeouts is if he fundamentally alters his approach, and then turns out to be extremely talented to a level previously undetected. In other words, it’s very much the exception and not the rule.
If Austin Jackson were playing for the Indians, we wouldn’t be so dismissive of his hitting.
Also, I agree about cutting down on strikeouts. It rarely happens, though we see players suddenly blossoming into higher K rates (see Sizemore).
Ok, so it should have said “maintained his average around .280 for most of the season.”
Was he ever more than a singles hitter in the minors?
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Sep 14, 2010 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions
So, basically there is no possible way for Mujica to prove he is for real in San Diego. His home stats are meaningless because it’s Petco and his road stats are meaningless because of SSS. Awesome.
LGT's resident moderate Yankee hating fan.
Flukishly low BABIP this year, too (career 302; this year, 230). Of course his numbers at Petco will be looked at askance, because it is the best pitcher’s park in baseball. When he’s away from Petco, he still puts up remarkable BB/K numbers, but it’s hard to ignore the HRs. In his 2 years in the NL, not at Petco (and throwing out two starts on the road last year in which he got battered), he’s gone 61.1 IP, 58 H, 31 R, 28 ER, 15 HR, 8 BB, 50K; 4.11 ERA. 55 games in relief, 37 unscored on. 39 inherited runners, 11 scored, a 28.2% mark. His numbers suffer because every year he takes one for the team, giving up 3 or 5 runs in the 8th of a blowout loss.
He’s not been bad, but I wouldn’t get bitter about it.
I’m not bitter about it, because like Archer, who by the way is probably a top 10 pitching prospect now, he never really showed signs of being this type of guy here.
The HR’s are obviously high on the road, but even with them, he has still been a good pitcher away from home. Also, isn’t it a bit unfair to cite his HR total but dismiss his BABIP? I feel like if you’re in the crowd that thinks a guy can control one of those stats, then you’re in the crowd that thinks the other stat can be controlled, too. I myself am not sure where I stand on this part of the issue.
LGT's resident moderate Yankee hating fan.
Here’s a little BABIP study of the 20 AL relievers this year with BABIPs at 250 or less (and a minimum of 100 ABs). Over the last 10 years, they’ve collectively had 96 seasons with 100+ ABs as relievers. 40 of those saw BABIPs under 250 (41.7%), 32 between 250-289 (33%), 6 in the 290s (6%), 5 from 300-309 (5%) and 13 310 and up (14%). 5 of the 20 have career BABIPs below 250, and the other 15 are all below 290. So in total, 75% of the seasons were below league average in BABIP, while 100% of the pitchers were below league average for their careers.
AL BABIP has ranged from 292-304 over the last decade, with a 297 average.
So here’s one little batch of numbers that suggest that BABIP may be predictable. Brian Fuentes, of this group, comes pretty close to Mujica’s numbers: 4 seasons of BABIPs ranging from 298-350 before getting 264 and 247. After that, he had 2 league-average years, and then the 235 he has for 2010.
There may be extensive BABIP studies out there. I haven’t looked at high-BABIP guys yet to see how frequently they dive below 250. And I haven’t looked at HR/FB, so I don’t know how predictable those numbers might be.
Do we need to separate out the guys who changed roles as relievers by becoming closers for some seasons and not others? Could the role of closer possibly be a variable that is relevant to BABIP studies of relievers? I can’t exactly point out why it would be, however I would suspect and hypothesize that it is such a variable, if I knew how to test the hypothesis and demonstrate it true or false.
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Sep 14, 2010 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions
I feel that in the 9th inning, people tend to make poorer contact. If that’s crazy and incorrect, I’m ok with it being pointed out.
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Sep 14, 2010 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions
During the pregame festivities at Rockies home opener this year, I was watching Betancourt and Mujica joke around, and then realized that I was probably the only one in the stadium who thought that was interesting.
Anyway, he occasionally showed good K numbers in the minors, so maybe this is some hope for our current pitchers who have seen their K/9 drop by 3 or 4 on graduation. Hopefully? Please?
Your piece does remind me of this, though. And this “quote” from Shapiro in particular:
Shapiro was talking about a conversation with Kevin Towers (SD GM) and said something along the lines of, “Kevin was saying, ‘you guys are trying to cut down from 27 or 28 to get to 25 – we’re trying to get up to 25 from 17 or 18.’” To which Mark said, “that’s not good, Kevin”. I laughed (on the inside).
I’m not really laughing on the inside or the outside now.
It’s a tad bit ridiculous if we’re going to dismiss every single pitcher that pitches well in Petco.
LGT's resident moderate Yankee hating fan.
IN
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
PETA-CO
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Sep 14, 2010 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions

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