Game 148: Royals 6, Indians 4
by afh4 on Sep 19, 2010 6:05 PM EDT
in Game Recaps
Email
PrintOn August 11, Josh Tomlin took the loss in Baltimore after a good, not great, pitching performance: 5 innings, 2 earned runs, and 10 hits. When that game finished, Tomlin's ERA was 2.96; since then, his ERA has been 6.05. There is, candidly, nothing to see here; with Columbus, Tomlin posted an MLE of 5.28 and, while MLE's are often confusing and troublesome, this one seems right on the money. In his first three starts, Tomlin gave up only 11 hits in 19.1 innings pitched; since then, it's 48 in 39.2 innings pitched. He's struck out only 33 batters in 59 innings this season. Tomlin's got one decent asset: he generally throws strikes, walking only sixteen men on the year. However, this is the kind of "good stat" that means nothing in context. It doesn't help to be around the plate if you're so hittable. Tomlin could nibble and walk guys and the results probably wouldn't be much worse than the repercussions of the current hit parade.
By now, I'm sure you've figured out that Tomlin pitched poorly today. The Tribe offense, reanimated by a visit to Kansas City, spotted Tomlin a 3-0 lead heading into the second. The lead was squandered and, after one of those weird death by paper cut innings, Tomlin somehow found himself down four runs-he managed to strike out the side while simultaneously giving up three singles, a walk, and watching Yuni Betancourt steal home. From there, he cruised into the bottom of the sixth, put two men on, and was relieved by Aaron Laffey. The Laff-Man, in his first appearance since July 19, gave up a two-run double to the big Hawaiian and then settled in to retire the next six batters in a row. Tale as old as time, Laffey's numbers look good (2 scoreless innings, after all) but he took the game from 4-3 to 6-3 and basically shut the door on any Indians uprising.
The whole "dead-arm Aaron" business wasn't on display today-Laffey worked up around 87 with his fastball, which is more or less his whole career, but there wasn't much separation with the change. He did get four groundouts, so perhaps that skill is reemerging.
With Carlos Carrasco pitching so well to end the year in Cleveland, it's a bit odd to look at Laffey and, to a much lesser extent, Tomlin and consider that we ever pondered the viability of a rotation built on these kinds of arms. The Indians infamous army of soft-tossers, commanded by General (T)Sowers and featuring enlistees Laffey, Scott Lewis, and David Huff, with Jeanmar Gomez and Josh Tomlin hanging around the recruiting office trying to bum smokes, has pretty much disbanded. I'm not sure any of these guys will ever pitch for the Indians again after next week; the smart money says that at least one of them will help fill out the rotation at some point in '11 or '12 but the fact that they might all be to the ether is startling. Pitching depth, waves of arms, whatever you'd like to call, it doesn't amount to much when the arms aren't any good.
Offensively, the Indians got 2 hits each from Marte and LaPorta and Choo hit his 20th homerun of the season. In 2007, five Indians went out 20 or more times; in 2008 the number was 3; in 2009 Choo hit the number on the nose as the only Indian to reach the 20 plateau and he will be the only Indian to do it again this season. Team homeruns, since 2007: 178, 171, 161, 116. Things are rotten in places besides Denmark, it seems.
The Indians are nearly done and hopefully can end the season by continuing their relatively strong play. They are 9-8 in September with a positive run differential, having won or split four of their last five series. Tomorrow they'll head to Minnesota to finish this final road trip and then will end with six straight at home against Kansas City and Detroit. Fourth place hangs in the balance, with the Indians currently holding a half game lead over the Royals. By the end of next week we'll know if Cleveland will pick fifth, sixth or seventh in the 2011 draft, a class supposedly loaded with talent, and the first draft of the Antonetti era. Onward and upward, fair Tribesmen.
72 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
For Tomlin, I am impressed that he has given the Indians ten respectable starts. It’s a positive story if he never makes another start.
I’m not sure how much he signed for but he was a 19th rd. draft pick that has never receiver much fanfare so I’m guessing it was probably slot money. He’s never sniffed a top ten prospect list. He wasn’t even a full-time starter in the minors during 2007 and 2008. He’s defied the odds.
But, your point is well taken. Any sort of future success seems unlikely, though I am comfortable with him being a depth starter and/or last guy in the pen.
Tomlin seems like a nice guy and it’s awesome he got to play in the majors for a bit-I don’t begrudge the guy his brief time in the sun.
I wrote that in a-recap a bit ago.
No question that he’s exceeded all expectations and filled a hole in a year where someone needed to. Kudos to Tomlin. I’m just preparing myself for whatever attitude is going to spring up around him from Cleveland faithful. I saw the “featured” P-D comment the other day was along the lines of “you have to respect what Tomlin’s done-he’s worked hard and thrown strikes and blah blah.”
Well, in the most global sense, sure I respect what Tomlin’s done. But I don’t have to respect or give much further thought to Tomlin’s performance.
None of that’s to refute what you’re saying. I see your point.
In a lost season like this, yours is by far the most important point. However, I think there is still room to appreciate things for what they are.
These days, I rarely read or converse about the Indians outside of this site. One of the perks, I think, is that it makes it less likely to build attitudes about players based on what idiots say about that player. Not that it’s hard for me to imagine how quickly Tomlin could receive much unwarranted attention.
The funny thing about a guy like Tomlin is that while he has probably had to have put in a lot of hark work and dedication to overcome his mediocre stuff, his arm hasn’t fallen off. That in and of itself requires a tremendous amount of luck.
I really don’t think he is. He’s firmly in camp with those bums: he’s never had a run like Sowers did, his numbers are going to end up looking a great deal like Huff or Zach Jackson or someone. Who is he demonstrably better than?
This. Tomlin’s mediocrity is a credit to him, but even moreso damning to a guy like Huff, who has been about exactly as good but with a lot more basic stuff and pitches to work with.
We’re talking about two guys, not an army. One first-rounder who shot up to Triple-A and is now struggling, and an nth-rounder who has accomplished a lot more than anyone ever expected him to.
This is about as lame an excuse to bash the front office as you’ve ever concocted — and that is really saying something.
The Indians infamous army of soft-tossers, commanded by General (T)Sowers and featuring enlistees Laffey, Scott Lewis, and David Huff, with Jeanmar Gomez</blockquote
Talk to Andrew about this. It’s not my Army.
Resident LGT results-oriented boob.
The truth?
- Sowers is a disappointment, no doubt.
- Huff is not a soft-tosser, unless there’s no group in between soft-tossers and power-pitchers.
- SLewis was an effective pitcher far beyond the average third-rounder who just couldn’t stay healthy, and if he tossed softly, it never impeded his effectiveness.
- Laffey, like Tomlin, is a major overachiever.
So this particular “cluster” of pitchers has been caused as much by overachievement as underachievement.
You’ve missed the point. All I said is there were a bunch of them and, at one point, a lot of speculation regarding filling a rotation with them. Their origin stories don’t speak to what I wrote. They only speak to your insistence on making this about the front office which, believe me, is a shocking turn of events for us all.
The only thing anyone disagrees about is Huff and, well, I don’t care much about the line between ‘soft’ and ‘medium’ tossing.
by afh4 on Sep 21, 2010 11:17 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Here’s how it relates to the FO’s drafting ineptness. All of these stiffs are products of the FO’s drafting skills. The results – as you’ve implied – speaks volumnes.
Resident LGT results-oriented boob.
Yes, thanks. None of us realize the front office was in charge of player acquisition. Maybe we should just re-title every single thread about anything related to the Indians team or player performance as “place to evaluate the front office via repetition of exact same phrases, terms and arguments that we have used in every other thread.”
Why not? The same exact technique was used to belittle Garko, or bolslter Marte.
Here’s my point – in case you missed it – the Indians are a bad baseball team and will continue to be a bad baseball team until the FO learns how to identify amature talent. All their smart trades won’t get us to the WS until they stop drafting light weights like Sowers and Huff and Tomlin.
Resident LGT results-oriented boob.
Why not?
Because it’s boring and tiresome to listen to a bunch of cranks repeat themselves ad nauseam.
While I agree with Jay, I’ll also add that the actions of one group of cranks do nothing to justify the later actions of a second group.
If you thought the Garko discussion was irritation that should make it even more obvious to you why the constant devolution of every topic into “Shapiro’s management/drafting/wardrobe has failed us” is irritating to others.
Personally, I like the wardrobe. But anyway…
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Sep 21, 2010 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I was thinking more along the lines of Bryan Bullington, Guillermo Mota, Oldberto, Jason Stanford, Jorge Julio, Brendan Donnelly, Brian Slocuimb, Tomo Ohka, Wilson Abreu (did I forget anyone?).
Tomlin throws strikes. He has a 1.9 BB/9 rate in the minors, and 2.4 so far in the bigs. Huff, on the other hand, averaged 2.4 in the minors and 3.2 in the bigs. And Huff is a headcase.
So you were thinking of relievers? And Stanford, who’s trajectory is actually a bit like Tomlin?
by afh4 on Sep 21, 2010 11:19 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Winston Abreu pitched 2.1 innings in Cleveland. Julio, 17.2. Donnelly, 13.2. Slocum, 19.2. Bullington, 14.2.
Jason Stanford actually posted a 3.61 ERA over 3 seasons with the Indians.
Your point is that he’s better than this handful of relievers the Indians never had anything invested in, including a bunch of guys who obviously are much better major leaguers than Tomlin. So he’s less “bum” than them? I guess Stanford is the best out of the lot or something. His ERA+ in his last season with the Indians is going to be a lot better than Tomlin’s will end up.
What does it even mean to say that Tomlin is less of a bum than Winston Abreu? I guess I should feel some measure of appreciation towards Tomlin because he’s prevented Winston Abreu from starting.
I said he was firmly in camp with the guys who’ve actually started for the Indians-Huff, Sowers, Laffey, et al-the guys who would actually take his innings or who have filled them over the last three years. And your response is that he’s better than relievers the Indians used for 25 innings three years ago. Well, yeah, maybe some of them, I guess. I don’t know what that proves but maybe he’s objectively better than Roberto Hernandez. Then again, maybe Hernandez could’ve lucked his way into a 5.00 ERA starting for a few weeks as well. Why not?
I don’t share your passion about Tomlin, so I can’t engage you in a defense of the relative merits of Bryan Bullington. Tomlin probably deserves to join the legion of bums—including Sowers, Laffey and Huff—some of whom are better than he is. But Tomlin throws strikes, seems coachable, and came with low expectations.
this, of course.
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Sep 20, 2010 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m torn as to whether to find this hysterical or disturbing.
"If Brown is the answer, then you’re asking the wrong question." - Ryan
by woodsmeister on Sep 20, 2010 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions
David Huff may be extremely disappointing, but I object to him getting lumped in with the soft-tossers. His average fastball this year was 90.6, which as a left-hander isn’t really that soft. That is the same average as Jonathan Sanchez, for example.
The difference in Huff’s ratios and Tomlin’s in the majors is pretty remarkable. Similar in Columbus I guess.
If it weren’t for Carrasco, Tomlin could win the K/BB title for our starters this year. That’s at least funny, right?
by dgcambridge on Sep 20, 2010 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions
You watch Huff, his fastball is soft. You watch Sanchez, his fastball is great. I’m not scouty enough to define it beyond that but I’ve got no problem with calling Huff a soft-tosser, even if it’s bordering on misnomer.
I’ve decided that Huff has the least deceptive fastball ever. Batters know when it is in the strike zone, and they swing and hit it. And they know when it isn’t going to be in the strike zone, and they let it go by.
Looked like Carrasco had that problem last year (and perhaps doesn’t this year?). Maybe this is something that can be fixed?
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Sep 20, 2010 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I was going to defend Gomez. But then facts and numbers and stuff.
Steel Nick
by nickjs21 on Sep 20, 2010 6:08 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Sowers and Huff are simply worse players than they were at ages 22/23. Maybe the same fate awaits Gomez, I don’t know. But I don’t think it’s a given.
Oh wait, Laffey too.
Couple of lessons learned over the last few years, for me, are:
- It isn’t as unlikely as you think that a breakout guy at 22-23 will substantially decline by 25-26.
- This is especially true of pitchers, whose raw stuff tends to reach its peak at 22-23.
Not coincidentally, the end of the injury nexus coincides with when raw stuff reaches its peak, i.e., both events occur as the arm’s physiological maturation has leveled off.
Excuse me, but what does any of this have to do with the DJ Cat up there?
by afh4 on Sep 21, 2010 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Isn’t 22-23 around the time when most major pitching prospects enter the major league fray? So does the decline begin already when they make their debut? Or are you referring only to certain pitchers who have a certain type of stuff?
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Sep 21, 2010 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not saying their decline begins at 22-23. I’m saying most reach their peak in raw stuff at that point. But the peak isn’t a moment that marks immediate decline after that point, and raw stuff is only one component of overall pitching ability. You can learn new pitches, more consistent mechanics, better control, even just keeping a cool head.
Raw stuff doesn’t improve much after 23 but it may not decline for many years either. But just as you can learn new things after that point, lots of other things can go wrong over that period, too — most notably, the sheer toll of pitching another 1000 innings.
Ah. Thanks.
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Sep 21, 2010 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Hopefully this is the last we see of Laffey. His one mediocre stretch has been parlayed into more chances than one would think possible.
I object to your narrative. We’ve had plenty of players on these teams who have rewarded multiple chances with horrible play, but Laffey’s not one of them. But maybe tuck that thought away, it might be true after 2012 or so, if he trends along with Huff and Sowers.
Aaron Laffey ERA+: 100, 101, 95, 89. WHIP: 1.33, 1.43, 1.62, 1.63. K/BB: 2.08, 1.39, 1.04, .1.00
That’s the consistent awarding of chances to a player who has consistently gotten worse. Laffey is actually worse than Sowers, demonstrably, and not much better than Huff. He’s setting the decline trend, not at risk of falling into it.
Your statements still don’t match the numbers.
Laffey has clearly been better than Sowers. An ERA+ in the 97-101 range has value here. Laffey has walked the razor’s edge between valuable and not, and this year he finally fell off. And his injuries made him miss time.
But Sowers and Huff have actually been bad. Huff has been bad both years. Sowers had his one good year and then three years where he pitched for over 300 innings (total) with an ERA+ under 80. 80!
Here’s WARP, if that helps,
Laffey 4 years: 4.3
Sowers 4 years: 2.1
Huff 2 years: -0.8
Ok, Huff sucks.
In 2009 Laffey threw 121 innings and Sowers threw 121 (for the ML club). Sowers whip was 1.50 to Laffey’s 1.61, Sowers walked and struck out fewer, Laffey allowed more hits. I’m really not seeing the big difference between the two.
Laffey had a pretty spectacular flame-out in September, which you may not be remembering. He had a 3.36 ERA over his first 20 games — 14 starts and 6 relief appearances. He allowed three runs or fewer in 11 of those 14 starts and never more than 5. Then, for some reason, he totally fell apart in his last five starts, producing an 8.53 ERA.
Now I’m not saying the last five games don’t count, but the point is that he showed he could be a pretty good pitcher over a sustained stretch of time. In fact, if you take it back to his 6th game in 2007, you get a stretch of 34 starts (and 40 games total) with a 3.69 ERA over 212 IP.
You can’t put together any stretch like that for Sowers without coming up a full run higher for his ERA.
We’re dealing with inning counts of 49, 94, 122, and 53. With samples that small, not only are the stats unreliable and volatile in general, but there really is a pretty slim difference between an ERA+ of 89 and 101. Not to mention, he’s been shifting back and forth between roles and sometimes battling injuries, too.
There is just no cause for concluding, and especially not with such confidence, that he is in decline or a bad pitcher.
His peripherals are all falling, his fastball is slowing, he can’t get groundballs, and he can’t even get outs in the minors. Other than that, you nailed it.
I will never, ever figure out how Aaron Laffey became such a polarizing figure.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Sep 22, 2010 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Again, a tiny sample is a tiny sample. You don’t get to cite peripherals, as though that means you’re definitely right about something, and blow off the question of sample size, which means you’re probably not right about anything.
You want to make the argument about his fastball slowing, his inability to get outs in the minors, then you’d have something. When you make it about the stats, though, you’ve got to give stats that are meaningful, not merely those that make you feel good.
It is a tiny sample, but it encompasses all the sample he’s given us. Combine that with the same disturbing peripherals in the minors and you get the picture of a pretty bad pitcher. The small sample doesn’t completely negate the fact that he’s been bad in every measurable way.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Let's Go Tribe
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
Featured Stories
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Giancarlo Stanton busts Marlins Park scoreboard with tape-measure grand slam (VIDEO)
- Baltimore’s tradition of fans shouting ‘O!’ during national anthem sparks interleague feud
- Chris Perez follows rant against Cleveland fans with even better rant against Cleveland fans
- Pitcher Clayton Richard gets key pinch single in 13th after coming in 0 for 16
- Livan Hernandez welcomes ball boy to the bigs with shower of sunflower seeds (VIDEO)
