Game 136: Indians 4, Mariners 2
by Ryan on Sep 5, 2010 8:19 AM EDT
in Game Recaps
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Mitch Talbot pitched his best game in months, giving up an unearned run on five hits in 6.2 innings. He was in control of at-bats, throwing quality fastball strikes early in the count and then going to his changeup (which looked really good) and slider after he got ahead in the count. I'm sure it didn't hurt that he was facing a lineup with LGFT Josh Bard hitting sixth, but his pitches looked livelier than in recent starts.
The key at-bat came in the sixth inning. Ichiro and Chone Figgins reached with two soft-hit singles, bringing up Russell Branyan with nobody out. Talbot got Branyan to swing and miss with a fastball up in the strike zone, and then retired Jose Lopez and Casey Kotchman to end the threat. Branyan would hit a home run later in the game, but it came with no one on.
Rafael Perez relieved Talbot in the seventh and allowed a run to score on an Ichiro single, and after getting out of the inning, allowed Branyan's homer and two more singles. Acta pulled him, bringing in Tony Sipp to face Kotchman and Bard. After Sipp got those two, he brought Chris Perez in to get a four-out save. I suppose with the Indians not leading much, he can use Perez for multiple-inning saves more often; had the Indians had a better record, and Perez more appearances, Acta wouldn't be doing this. Of course, had the Indians a better setup group, in either case, Perez would be strictly a one-inning guy.
| Highest WPA | Lowest WPA | ||
| Mitch Talbot | .245 | Rafael Perez | -.274 |
| PURE RAGE | .196 | Matt LaPorta | -.055 |
| Tony Sipp | .159 | Trevor Crowe | -.031 |
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Pure Rage since August (SSS):
14.1 IP, 8H, 2ER, 4BB, 17K — 10.67 K/9, 2.51 BB/9, 0.84 WHIP, 4.25 K/BB
Chris Perez? Really?
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Sep 7, 2010 2:57 AM EDT up reply actions
You can’t let actual performance cloud your understanding of what you’re seeing out there, V-Mart. A 1.36 ERA since he took over from Wood? 13 out of 14 saves? A 1.03 WHIP? 1 HR in 33 IP? 10.09 K/9? 1 of 12 inherited runners scoring? Bah. Joe knows. xFIP knows.
When did I say he wasn’t good since he took over from Wood? Nice strawman, brochacho.
LGT's resident moderate Yankee hating fan.
Also, do you prefer tERA? FIP? SIERA? It’s not like I found the one advanced statistic that puts Perez in a bad light for most of the year. They all do.
LGT's resident moderate Yankee hating fan.
Okay, you’ve not been specific, but you seem to have ruled out April, so CP since May 1: 1.65 ERA, 14/17 saves, 1.06 ERA, 4 HR in 49 IP, 9.37 K/9, 25 IR, 5 scored.
This is, to quote nick, “good.” This is, to quote you, “not.”
I’m with nick.
Who is ruling out April? The WHIP is only so low because of a flukishly low BABIP. Again, I am not saying he can’t be good or hasn’t been excellent recently, but he did not pitch well for most of the year.
LGT's resident moderate Yankee hating fan.
Stop wriggling. Nick suggested, after your first objection, that he has been “good” outside of a 6 inning stretch in April. Since he only pitched 6.2 innings in April, that must mean that Nick supposed “good” would be an appropriate adjective for CP since then. You then said, if the stenographer can read back the record? Yes, you said: “Of course not.”
You will get no semantic arguments from me if you suggest that his good 2010 season may be hard to duplicate in the future due to a low babip. Though I will point out that Mariano Rivera has a career 263 babip, with individual years of 212, 241, 219, 238 and, this year, 207.
My apologies, I thought he had pitched more in April, though it doesn’t really change my argument.
As for bringing up the best closer of all time as evidence of anything, I don’t know what to say. I’m sure you were the guy saying that Jeremy Sowers could maintain that ERA after his rookie year because Tom Glavine did it, too.
LGT's resident moderate Yankee hating fan.
Oh—and CP has a career 254 babip. By year: 274, 253, 255, 254, 239. So make your argument for a projected CP collapse.
Well, assuming I hadn’t said he wasn’t pitching excellently now, you could go with the flukishly low BABIP and even more flukishly low HR/FB. But since I did in fact say he has been pitching great for the last month and a half, I don’t foresee a collapse.
LGT's resident moderate Yankee hating fan.
Yes, though I could easily see him being excellent in 2011.
LGT's resident moderate Yankee hating fan.
Well, I’m happy to use “good” to describe CP’s career so far.
What is it about CP that FIP (or tERA or SIERA) doesn’t like? I’m surprised the low HRs and high Ks don’t cancel out the BBs. Or is weighing the career HR totals, which are high going into 2010? (Despite being a FB pitcher, by the way, he’s got a better than league average GIDP rate. Might be common with relievers in frequent runners-on situations, though.)
Well, FIP probably likes him the most. That’s because of the flukishly low HR rates, but he is still hurt by the awful control and very good but not amazing strikeout rate.
xFIP and to a much greater extent tERA and SIERA don’t like him because they factor in batted balls. Perez is an extreme flyball pitcher.
LGT's resident moderate Yankee hating fan.
xFIP is an interesting but clumsy stat.
If ERA is a bad stat for a reliever, why is it so great for a closer?
by Jay on Sep 7, 2010 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I’ll be honest, despite my own intuition based on ‘seeing’ Chris Perez being really good this year, I thought he was making a strong case by citing those metrics. But this point, it seems, is an interesting counterpoint.
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Sep 7, 2010 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Here’s some more stats.
Perez has 50 scoreless appearances out of 57. This is significant because, even relative to his low ERA, it shows that his 12 earned runs (and 3 unearned) have been concentrated in only six games, which is better than if they were distributed more evenly. (As a rule, a reliever can only blow the game once.)
He also has 41 appearances in which he allowed 0 or 1 baserunner. Granted, your BIP argument argues against this, but does anyone really think that Perez has served up a bunch of line drives that went right at our fielders? OUR fielders?
You’d have trouble persuading me that it’s likely that the Indians defense has been helping Perez, even with assistance from luck.
by Jay on Sep 7, 2010 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you are taking this to an extreme, the sabermetrics hubris. xFIP is dodgy, and even FIP is only an estimate. The idea that a HR is a “true outcome” is a lot more significant than the idea of a universal regression of HR/FB rates.
by Jay on Sep 7, 2010 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I assume it’s so until proven otherwise, The guys that defy the advanced metrics are the exception, not the rule.
LGT's resident moderate Yankee hating fan.
You’ve just stopped addressing the points that people are making now. It’s just coming across as orneriness at this point.
I wasn’t specifically answering his comment about the sabermetrics hubris?
LGT's resident moderate Yankee hating fan.
Well, sort of, but your last few responses have just been curt and dismissive, and decidedly less detailed than the ones you’re countering. You basically have these few stats that rate CP less well, and you’re stubbornly sticking to them without really justifying why the issues being raised aren’t really issues. Responding to two data-filled paragraphs with “it’s very probable” isn’t really reasonable.
by Logodaedalus on Sep 8, 2010 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
xFIP is an experimental toy, not an advanced metric.
You need to learn to distinguish between metrics which are estimated adjustments of what happened based on a set of theories about what biases performance … as compared to metrics that measure more precisely what actually happened.
by Jay on Sep 8, 2010 1:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Haven’t looked into them lately.
It’s a mistake to think that the raw performance data isn’t biased, but attempts to correct those biases are only estimates, and frankly, they’re pretty crude estimates. It’s important to understand them and keep a sense of perspective.
by Jay on Sep 8, 2010 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Talbot was awesome yesterday. Although he has been awful this year, I think with his stuff he definitely merits at least the first two months in the rotation next year. Not like we have anything better anyway.
LGT's resident moderate Yankee hating fan.
He has been awful this year?
I don’t think he was awful in the first half of the season, was he?
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Sep 5, 2010 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Seems like nobody ever cuts him any slack for being a rookie.
by Jay on Sep 5, 2010 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
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