Game 139: Indians 6, Angels 1
Is it time to update the conventional wisdom on Justin Masterson? Perhaps. It's true, he came into the season with serious questions as to whether he could get lefties out, and consequently whether he didn't really belong in the bullpen. It's true, he did little to quiet those concerns in the first half of the season, or at least, what successes he had came in fits and starts and accompanied by occasional setbacks. And it's true, finally, that he went through some kind of brutal period in July and August that made it possible, briefly, to compare his effectiveness as a starter to David Huff's.
These things are also true, however. Masterson has pitched at least five complete innings in his last 19 consecutive starts. (Yes, there have been a few ugly starts, but he hasn't really shredded the bullpen in months. That alone makes him more than a fifth starter.) Masterson has an ERA of 2.95 for his last seven starts, and he's now pitched three quality starts in a row, with 15 strikeouts to go with six walks. Tonight, he held five lefty batters to five hits, one of them an infield single, none of them for extra bases.
At this point, there should be little doubt that Masterson will get several more months and probably the entire 2011 season to show what kind of ceiling he has as a starter. It is hard to imagine what he could do to change that in the two remaining starts he's like to get this season.
The Indians' action came almost entirely in the 6th. Hafner led off by hammering the ball just barely over the fence in right, which is always nice to see. He had roped a double earlier, making this one of those games where you start to daydream about what it would be like to see Hafner "all the way back" someday. Despite vague impressions, Hafner has not really taken off at any point this season, and outside a rather prolific three-week stretch in May, he really hasn't hit much better than Ryan Garko used to hit. Given his defensive uselessness, his only real edge over Garko is his baserunning — and the daydreams, of course.
Later that inning, Brown hit a little bloop to left, which is what he's supposed to do, I guess. Then Donald and Valbuena both worked Francisco "Not K-Rod" Rodriguez for walks, which is what the Indians like to see out of their middle infielders, so they did what they were supposed to do, too. And then Lou Marson caught a hanging slider and sent it deep into the seats in left field, which is what he's supposed to do.
Wait. Wait wait wait wait.
Lou Marson hit a grand slam? Why, yes, yes he did. In fact, he gunned down a couple of guys at second base tonight, too — and he now has as many home runs for the season as Kelly Shoppach, and four more doubles. Yes, he does.
A couple days ago, Jason Knapp had his fourth start for Lake County, and the line didn't look good, 4 ER in 3.2 IP. The line is deceiving though. Despite struggling early with control, Knapp struck out seven of the first 14 batters, with only one batter managing to get the ball out of the infield. Things fell apart after that, there was a passed ball and a walk and a couple of singles, and then some random middle reliever let three of Knapp's runners to score, despite coming in with two outs. Them's the breaks, I guess.
My point? Cliff Lee is having a pretty good week so far — and for that matter, so's Victor Martinez. We won the game, too. Am I supposed to make a big deal out of that? Because for once, the Indians made it feel kind of routine.
| Highest WPA | Lowest WPA | ||
| Justersonster | .226 | Jayson Nix | -.105 |
| Travis Hafner | .133 | Matt LaBoras | -.037 |
| Sweet Lou Marson | .132 | Scot-Soo Boras | -.035 |
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Masterson has an ERA of 2.95 for his last seven starts, and he’s now pitched three quality starts in a row, with 15 strikeouts to go with six walks. Tonight, he held five lefty batters to five hits, one of them an infield single, none of them for extra bases.
Just when I thought I was out…
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Sep 8, 2010 6:06 AM EDT reply actions
[Marson] now has as many home runs for the season as Kelly Shoppach
AND as many career grand slams as Jeet. Congrats, Looooouuuuuuu.
by JulioBernazard on Sep 8, 2010 8:40 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Let’s give it a few years before we get too positive about the trade.
by Roger Dorn on Sep 8, 2010 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I am really confused by the Nix hate. His batting line in Cleveland is .260/.310/.465, which in a down offensive year for a middle-infielder is pretty damn good. His defense has been at times brutal, but most of that brutality (and all of his errors in Cleveland) has been at 3B. This shouldn’t be too surprising as he had only logged 12 major league games at 3B prior to this season, so he is doing a lot of learning on the job. Assuming he gets more reps in the off-season and spring training at 3B and SS and improves his defense there a bit, he has shown himself to be a pretty valuable utility guy with some pop.
Exactly. If Crowe hit like that, he’d be on the front of the media guide next year.
My point with Nix is that if he only has two “plus tools” – defense and power – that might be enough for this team. And if I was feeling snarky, I’d point out that those are a nice counterbalance to our usual two “plus tools” – minor league walk rate and age.
My point with Nix is that if he only has two "plus tools" – defense and power – that might be enough for this team.
I’m sorry, it sounds like you said defense was a plus tool for Nix.
Steel Nick
I agree. Most folks probably think of me as a Marte booster, but I see Nix as an asset, even though he’s going to shove Marte out of the organization entirely. So make of that what you will.
It’s amazing how nobody cuts him any slack on playing third base, which he did for only nine games in his entire minor league career — and possibly most of those not even as a starter. It’s not an easy position, and when exactly was he supposed to have learned it?
My sense is that the front office is evaluating his physical tools over there, seeing if he has the potential to play well there, not his skills, which he couldn’t possibly have developed. He hits well enough to start at second base and clearly to be a utility infielder.
by Jay on Sep 8, 2010 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m going to need a scout’s eyes on this one, but I don’t see a physical tool that he’s displayed to suggest third base is a position he can be average at. For one, he’s not quick to grounders—for all the praise of a diving stop he made last night, there was a triple he gave up Monday night that should have been stopped, and so far that’s the norm.
It’s all well and good that the front office is experimenting in a lost season, but so far there’s no reason to believe he’s a better third baseman than Garko is a right fielder, or Crowe is a second baseman.
Steel Nick
Question is whether he gave up the triple because he lacks the talent, or because he lacks the experience to position himself, read the ball off the bat, and react more or less instantly.
2B is definitely tougher than 3B, but 3B is not easy, and it’s not an “easier version” of shortstop. It has specific plays and angles that take some getting used to.
Hey! Guess what I realized last night! The wrong team is going to advance in the bizarro league playoffs. Is that something you can overturn?
No, but take comfort in knowing that your team was the worst this year and for that, in true Bizarro fashion, do not congratulate you for that.
The playoffs were always going to be a problem that there is no system to remedy.
In fantasy football, you can assign point values to items to make bad things more valuable. In baseball, you cannot — leading to having to finish LAST to “win” the league.
So you won!
Only LaPorta and Choo were in their presumed 2011 spots in this game: Marson filled in for Santana, Asdrubal was resting, our left fielder played center and our utility guy (s) played everywhere else. So, Justersonster really did indeed earn a big WPA score in this game.
our left fielder played center
Um, I kinda think that guy is our center fielder
And LaPorta still looks so awkward jogging to first. That guy is not 100%.
Asdrubal Cabrera has been between average and poor at SS depending on who you ask; Jhonny Peralta is certainly below average at 3B as is Matt LaPorta at 1B and Jason Donald, the backup SS. Luis Valbuena has been solid at second base. It’s certainly not a good infield, but blaming all of Masterson’s issues on it would be too much.
Um. I am not sure I agree with any of this except the bit on Jhonny, but I really can’t believe Valbuena has been good at 2nd. Have I been missing the games where he doesn’t look bad?
That’s just Fangraphs’ trademark SSS extrapolation.
If you don't respect Aaron Laffey, I will fight you.
by Cap'n Snegiryov on Sep 8, 2010 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
There have been more comments about Cabrera’s substandard fielding at short. Now there is speculation that he would be better at second.
… again, as nearly all major leaguers would be.
If you want to talk about nothing, maybe you should talk about consistency.
by Jay on Sep 8, 2010 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Eh? So to suggest that Cabrera may not be Ozzie Smith at short—that he may not be a plus defender—is meaningless? I am afraid I don’t get the consistency comment. Are you saying it would be appropriate to mention Cabrera’s inconsistency in the field? I think the latest talk has more to do with range.
It would be great if we had a good defensive shortstop on the roster to move Cabrera to 2nd, but we don’t.
Now there is speculation that he would be better at second.
This statement means nothing. “Now there is speculation” — whose? “He would be better at second” — well, who wouldn’t be?
It’s just a totally unsubstantive seeding of doubt and negativity.
by Jay on Sep 8, 2010 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well, I didn’t make it up, if that’s what you’re suggesting. I can’t find any reference in Pluto or Hoynes, which leads me to suspect I heard Hamilton talk about it recently. It’s hardly unsubstantive, and has nothing to do with the “seeding of doubt.” I’m not the one who has suggested Cabrera has been a defensive disappointment.
I should have clarified – your comment didn’t strike me as negative. Not sure why it would be interpreted it as such. It makes perfect sense that a player could be better suited to a position other than the one where he currently plays.
Instead I was pointing out how common are doubt and negativity more broadly.
From, Ben
Pluto:
6. Not much is said about this, but Asdrubal Cabrera has ranked very low in terms of range at shortstop. He’s at 10th out of the 11 regular American League shortstops in terms of zone rating. Other services rank him near the bottom in range. The Indians believe he can become an average defensive shortstop, but he’s not showing it now. So the left side of the infield is a mess. When Jason Donald played short, he was worse than Cabrera. Of 50 total shortstops ranked by fangraphs.com in terms of range, Cabrera is No. 42. Donald came in at No. 50.
I thought he was supposed to be above average.
And when we first traded for him, didn’t they say that he was an excellent fielder, but the knock on him was that he might not be much of a hitter? Did he lose ability or his same abilities are viewed differently now, or did I misinterpret something?
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Sep 8, 2010 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
He was a very young but good prospect. His bat had not caught up to his overall prospect status so he got tagged “glove-first” by people who didn’t know how to read the situation.
At least, that’s my guess. Additionally, anyone who can play as many games in the majors at SS as Asdrubal, and come up as one as a 20 y/o in AAA, is probably going to get called “slick defensively” or whatever because he’s just obviously very good and very young.
I guess I’m missing your point, unless it’s one so obvious I can’t believe you’re belaboring it. Behind all your rhetorical feints, you’re avoiding the issue, which is the reassessment that Pluto says has been going on about Cabrera’s defense at short. “The Indians believe he can become an average defensive shortstop…”
I am skeptical of the way Pluto characterizes the Indians’ thinking on this (and many other subjects). I am also skeptical of the way you characterized his take. So I am just pretty unimpressed overall.
I knew from the start that this came from a stray Shapiro comment. You posted it in another thread a few days ago. Now, you bring it up again but keep it vague for the purpose of exaggerating it.
by Jay on Sep 9, 2010 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Exaggerating? Moi? I was vague, sure, because at the time I didn’t recall the source. It probably was a stray comment by Shapiro, but you’re boxing with a shadow here, while ignoring the point: Cabrera may not be a plus defender at short.
I didn’t make that point up, but if you wish to continue to talk about the way I presented it rather than address that point, I’m willing to oblige you.
I might think they are, but the more popular opinion is that they are still noisy and unrefined, questionable but not outright shams.
Defensive metrics may be a sham, but there’s still such a thing as better and worse, stats or no stats. It’s just a little hairier to identify.
by Jay on Sep 9, 2010 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Assuming that “plus” means more than just a little above average, I’d even say he probably isn’t going to be a plus defender at short and he definitely hasn’t been one in a couple of years. So he has his work cut out for him.
So I don’t even dispute that point. There is something of a gap, however, between that point and the point where it’s implied that the Indians are looking for a way to move him to second base. Given the sardine can of reasonably good talent collecting at second base, that is almost certainly not the case.
If the Indians have done one thing consistently, it’s push players to become solid defenders at their most challenging position. If Cabrera has let his speed and reflexes go, then switching him to second base is not even that great of a solution — he likely won’t be above-average there, either.
The best solution, and the one the Indians historically are inclined to take, is to assume that his natural talent is more or less what they thought it was … and get him to work harder at it.
by Jay on Sep 9, 2010 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions
You’re right about that being the Indians’ strategy, and it seems wise. The Indians seem to have no one more capable of playing shortstop than AC, so why not push him there?
I didn’t mean to imply that the Indians are looking to move him to second, just that they supposedly realized he might be better suited there. If they had a “real” shortstop, they might move AC to second. But they don’t have anyone better suited.
The presumption of natural talent, though, can be problematic. Wasn’t that what happened with Peralta?
Maybe the Indians have been fighting the last war with regard to second base. After the failure of Barfield, they have loaded up on second base prospects. But are there shortstop prospects?
Here are the guys in the Indians organization who logged the most time at SS this season:
Juan Diaz (A+, 129 games, I think he is viewed as average to above-average defensively)
Carlos Rivero (AA, 107 games, has remained at SS, but had an atrocious season at the plate)
Casey Frawley (A, 98 games)
Ron Rivas (A+, 66 games)
Josh Rodriguez (AAA, 59 games)
That is not a lot to offer on the horizon.
by APV on Sep 9, 2010 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think the second base loading-up had much to do with Barfield, nor do I think they have been collecting second basemen at the expense of shortstops. I do think that:
- They are always looking to collect skill position players.
- The more skillsy the better, so that second basemen are a good find but shortstops are even better.
- Shortstops of reasonable all-around competence are more scarce than second basemen.
- Every shortstop would be an even better second baseman.
- Most guys who play shortstop decently are more valuable overall at that position than if shifted to second, and finally,
- Asdrubal is still squarely one of those guys.
Again, keep in mind that there is no reason for confidence that Asdrubal’s defensive issues are specific to playing shortstop. It may well be that whatever his problems have been, they will follow him to second base, and if he can fix them well enough to play second base well, then he’d still more be valuable at shortstop.
Two more salient notes here. One, I am not going to go to the mat completely for the concept of positional value, because the delta between 2B and SS is just not all that gigantic. This is about righting the player first and then utilizing him well once righted. Two, the above is sound reasoning in the abstract, and given that we have a TON of other second base options, it becomes a truism.
by Jay on Sep 9, 2010 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with this. Good point about AC’s defensive issues not necessarily being specific to shortstop. Jhonny was a good example of that.
Yes. As it turns out, I may have been the one who was being too vague.
by Jay on Sep 9, 2010 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions
As I remember, a few days ago I was commenting on Cabrera’s offensive decline, not his defense. His poor hitting is attributable to injury, most likely. But as I’ve been watching him this summer I’ve been surprised at some of the plays he didn’t make. I found myself reconsidering my opinion of his glovework. Maybe it has to do with his weight, or conditioning, but he doesn’t seem to be as flawless as I had remembered thinking him.
I love Seinfeld!
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Sep 8, 2010 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Hmmm. . . . I didn’t realize that Masterson was left-handed.
If you don't respect Aaron Laffey, I will fight you.
by Cap'n Snegiryov on Sep 8, 2010 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Indeed… ugh.
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Sep 8, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Also, as the commenters point out, not a single mention of Masterson’s platoon split.
If you don't respect Aaron Laffey, I will fight you.
by Cap'n Snegiryov on Sep 8, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
The comments balance out the article to make the page informative overall. Should Masterson develop a secondary delivery/windup for when he faces lefties?
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Sep 8, 2010 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Interesting note. Masterson has stopped being an insane groundball pitcher these last couple months. Whether it’s just statistical variance or something significant, I have no idea.
LGT's resident moderate Yankee hating fan.
Possibly a change in the way he’s pitching lefthanders specifically?
by Jay on Sep 8, 2010 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Random thoughts:
- Having a catcher who throws out runners the way Marson does is very nice.
- LaPorta is either hurt or not useful at all. He got all of a pitch last night and drove it to the fence. Marson did better than that.
- Nix made a very nice diving stop on the line – neither Jhonny nor Martey make that play.
- Droobs is a better 2B than SS.
- Masterson is simply pitching a lot better than earlier in the year.
“Droobs is a better 2B than SS”
But he’s a better SS than.. imaginary guy who would replace him there.
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Sep 8, 2010 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Yep. I’ve pretty much always thought he was more natural at 2B, but was the best SS we had.
He’s generally been solid at short, but recently he’s been a little too casual on plays – using a flip throw to first that needs to be scooped rather than setting and making a stronger overhand throw. Even that wrong call the other night when he brushed the bag with his foot – he had time to make it cleaner or even throw to first for the out. Instead he made a flashy play that made it a tough (bad) call for the ump.
Well, I would be too if my third basemen are prone to breaking my arms.
by emd2k3 on Sep 9, 2010 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Two nights ago the Angels broadcasters tossed out a comment allegedly from Scott Boras saying the Tribe should work out an extension with BLC. Surprised? I was, since Boras famously likes to use annual arbitration for milking as close to free agent market value as he can get. Other than a sphynx-ian Boras quote from the PD saying not much of anything, I couldn’t even find a print reference to whatever the announcers thought they had heard him say. Of course, Choo is older than many players getting to arbitration and his free agency years won’t come until he’s already in decline, so perhaps Boras is just being realistic in this one case. Who knows, but it’s nice to know that (whatever mechanations Boras uses) we have both Choo and Cabrera under our control for three more years.

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