Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

While You Were Sleeping

As the season winds down, our collective gaze wanders. There are other things to do, children to put onto schoolbuses and slot receivers to be drafted. Compounding the problem, rosters expand and results suddenly seem to mean less. However, as the most astute among us have already noticed, a number of suns are peaking out from behind the nimbus for the Indians. 

  • You can hardly be any better than Chris Perez is right now. In a banner year for pitchers,  Perez's 1.91 ERA is, perhaps, overstating his case a little bit. It's "only" 15th among relievers. Still, bear in mind that Chris Perez is only 24 years old, a pitcher still developing. His progress has been evident this season and manifests in his season statistics. Since participating in the bullpen explosion in New York on May 31 (hey, all the other kids were doing it!), Perez has posted a 1.17 ERA, gone 14/15 on save attempts, struck out a batter per inning, and held batters to a .506 OPS. On the season, Perez has a 206 ERA+, the best for a regularly used Indians pitcher since the brothers Raffy both went nuts in 2007.  The young fireballer has exclusively used his plus fastball (94.5 mph on average) and effective slider (83.3 mph) to great enough effect that he could be traded for ten Mark DeRosas at this point. This is, as far as I can tell, the most clear cut "win" for the Indians in a trade since Choo or Cabrera. 
  • The note about ERA+ above is a little bit misleading; there are some strange exceptions (Anthony Reyes' magically lucky 34.1 IP in 2008, for instance) and, in fact, there's a strange exception on this staff. Justin Germano has now pitched in 16 games for the Cleveland Indians and has an ERA+ of 333. Germano, a player the Indians brought to camp after he spam emailed a bunch of MLB teams, will have to battle to sunstain big league success (none of his peripherals inspire a ton of confidence) but he's been a lot of fun, mostly because of the novelty of his sub-70 mph overhand curve. At a minimum, the Indians found an effective long reliever at no cost in a year where they really needed an effective long reliever. Optimistically, they've added another arm to the bullpen mix for next year and may have found a major league reliever. And, of course, Germano is LGT's first exclusive interview since that guy was selling Cy Young's house
  • Michael Brantley has made good on a portion of his minor league promise since his full time return to the big leagues in early August. Following his reinsertion into the lineup, Brantley has commanded the plate (16:9 K:BB),  hit respectably (.299/.346/.393) and played centerfield at a level that Trevor Crowe can't approach. Brantley still has a long way to go toward valuable major league regular: he must maintain the incremental progress he has made and add power. However, at just 23 and having gone 8/10 on stolen bases this season, he's inspiring a lot of optimism. 
  • Many of the Indians top prospects finished their regular seasons with their stocks some form of "up": Nick Weglarz, Lonnie Chisenhall, Jason Kipnis, Jason Knapp, and Carlos Carrasco all appeared to make significant strides this year and, perhaps more importantly, only one of those guys is below AA. With his late season push (which is no flash in the pan), Carrasco will almost certainly be a favorite to make the Indians rotation out of ST and Chisenhall, Kipnis and Weglarz will all have a chance to contribute in Cleveland if they perform well in Columbus. On top of this, Chun-Hsiu Chen has forced his name into the Indians very tippy top prospect discussion with his bonkers season split between Lake County and Kinston. Everything didn't go well down below this year (Nick Hagadone tries to wave the shell of Hector Rondon's arm at us but he can't control it) but more went well than we could've reasonably hoped. 

And, now, a little minutiae, in honor of the best MLB beat guy anywhere. 

Star-divide

  • When Luis Valbuena, a lefthanded batter, arrived to man second base for the Indians, one of the big questions was if he would ever be able to hit lefthanded pitching or if he would be forced into a platoon role. Valbuena has definitively answered this question in two ways. First, he's shown that he does not need to be platooned, he needs to be kept from playing at all. Secondly, he's smashed lefthanded pitching in 2010. Seriously. He has a career minor league split of just 664 OPS versus lefties yet, for Columbus in 2010, he posted a 1096 OPS against lefties, with 3 HRs in only 36 ABs. And, for the really nuts part, he's done an 899 OPS against lefties in 2010 at the major league level. The problem, of course, is that he's done nothing against righties. This is all a small sample size gambit but it's strange enough to warrant mentioning. Shouldn't there be greater hope that Valbuena, who's never struggled to hit righties at any level, would be able to relearn how to do the most natural thing in the world for lefties, hit righties? 
  • It's been speculated that the aforementioned Michael Brantley's inability to pull the ball will eventually be his demise in the major leagues. Well, I don't know how to parse this chart by date or anything, but it certainly looks like he's showing the ability to pull the ball in 2010 at Progressive Field. 
  • Shin-Soo Choo has taken a lot of heat for being a Boras client but does it seem reasonable that Boras, with his seemingly endless resources, might have been the obvious fit for a guy who might need to stand up to an entire nation? If any agent could find a way to keep Choo out of the South Korean military and in the majors, I'd imagine it's Boras.
  • Am I the only one who always votes "100" on the Indians fan confidence poll? 

Comment 55 comments  |  0 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

More from Let's Go Tribe

Transactions: The Streak Continues

Feb 2012 by Ryan - 30 comments

Transactions: Indians Sign Kotchman

Feb 2012 by Ryan - 84 comments

Swing, Michael, Swing

Jan 2012 by APV - 38 comments

Where the wins come from (v.2012)

Jan 2012 by APV - 16 comments

A Brightly Lit Alley Dead Ending

Dec 2011 by afh4 - 24 comments

Comments

Display:

Chen’s A and A+ results in each offensive category were strangely consistent with one big exception – he more than doubled his walks.

by dgcambridge on Sep 9, 2010 3:26 PM EDT reply actions  

Also! Tyler Holt. I’m just going to keep throwing his name out there.

by dgcambridge on Sep 9, 2010 3:28 PM EDT reply actions  

Holt was the key player in LC’s taking of their first playoff game.

by afh4 on Sep 9, 2010 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

And just curious, what does a major league center fielder hit?

[wait, I’ll look]

by dgcambridge on Sep 9, 2010 3:29 PM EDT reply actions  

MLB CF Last year: 749

Can’t find this year’s number. Not that it really matters, but I’m sure that number is available somewhere.

by dgcambridge on Sep 9, 2010 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

730 this year.

CF and 3B levels tend to be right around the overall league average for all positions.

by Jay on Sep 9, 2010 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks. For future reference, where did you find it?

by dgcambridge on Sep 9, 2010 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

B-Ref has league-wide batting and pitching and fielding stats … and splits. The links are at the top of the standings on the homepage. Once you go into the splits for either league, you’ll see a link at the top to jump to the other league’s, or to all-MLB.

by Jay on Sep 9, 2010 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Brantley’s been a nice story these past few weeks. It would be nice if LaPorta were following a similar trek of gradual improvement.

by Toxicadam on Sep 9, 2010 3:32 PM EDT reply actions  

Or any type of trek of any improvement.

by Jay on Sep 9, 2010 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hadn’t we all decided that ERA for judging relievers wasn’t particularly useful?

Also, something tells me Matt Packer will be a top guy for us very soon,

LGT's resident moderate Yankee hating fan.

by Joe. on Sep 9, 2010 3:33 PM EDT reply actions  

I don’t find ERA to be totally in the “wrong” column. Whenever a full time closers ERA is under 2, it’s good. Whenever anyone’s ERA is around 1 for a substantial stretch, it’s excellent. Also, I checked all of Perez’s other numbers (IS%, etc) to see if there was any reason to ding him and I didn’t think so. So, when I write, I use the number that actually means something to me and others in terms of a comparable baseline.

by afh4 on Sep 9, 2010 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

I see no one’s willing to take on Joe’s Matt Packer vs Chris Perez challenge.

Well played sir.

by dgcambridge on Sep 9, 2010 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well the walk numbers are bad, except for lately. Also, I don’t see his HR rate anywhere near sustainable.

LGT's resident moderate Yankee hating fan.

by Joe. on Sep 9, 2010 3:37 PM EDT reply actions  

13 of his 26 walks came in only 4.1 IP. You take those out and he’s walked 13 in 52.1 IP, or, a 2.24 BB/9, a good not great number. You take out the one intentional BB in those appearances, you’re at 2.07, an excellent number. Seems pretty easy to explain as a young pitcher who’s occasionally lost his concentration/release/confidence.

His HR/FB of 5.8% is not exceptionally good for an elite reliever.

When a guy scouted as a shut down closer shows up and starts performing like one, I’m going to believe a lot quicker than I will for Frank Hermann. Perez was supposed to be this good when he got his head cleaned out.

by afh4 on Sep 9, 2010 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

13 walks in 4.1 innings?! That’s … impressive.

In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).

by V-Mart Shopper on Sep 12, 2010 3:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

The idea about Boras being the man for the job against South Korea is both incredibly interesting and kind of funny. I never thought of it that way.

by ahowie on Sep 9, 2010 3:40 PM EDT reply actions  

In honesty, we should sic him on North Korea.

by emd2k3 on Sep 9, 2010 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

He’d announce that the Brilliant Comrade, Kim Jong Eun, had signed a 10-year deal with the Yankees.

by odradek on Sep 9, 2010 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Win-win.

Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile

by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Sep 10, 2010 6:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

I’ll be starting my minor league recaps in early October…lots of positive stuff this season, though.

by APV on Sep 9, 2010 4:05 PM EDT reply actions  

I’m not sure I know how to read Brantley’s hit chart either. But it does seem like he pretty rarely drives the ball in the air to right field. Obviously he has his 2 HRs that way, but if you look at his fly outs, there is a real R/L imbalance. That said, the chart also seems to suggest he takes it up the middle a lot…and I think that has to be good. As an additional caveat, I fell in love with Beau Mills because of his 2008 hit chart and the way he was able to drive the ball to all fields. How’s that working out for me?

by APV on Sep 9, 2010 4:12 PM EDT reply actions  

Looking back:

Boo. I’m always confused when people say that Brantley doesn’t pull the ball. I think he pulls it on the ground all the time. Good things happen when he lifts the ball.

by dgcambridge on Jul 8, 2010 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions

He’s lifted the ball harmlessly into the left fielder’s glove four or five times already.

It’s just a matter of the best choice being somewhere between the extremes. The Indians want him to turn on the ball middle, middle-in, because he’ll never hit for power going the other way. It’s a tough balance, because you want him to use the whole field and, especially against lefties, hit the ball the other way. Still, Brantley, although he’s fast and left-handed, shouldn’t be in Mike Redmond mode just yet.

by xrickx on Jul 8, 2010 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions

and

Seems like he pulls the grounder or loops one to the opposite field. I want to find the data though.

by dgcambridge on Jul 19, 2010 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions

That chart is consistent with our observations. He can pull the grounder hard to the right side, but most of his flies to left are pretty harmless. But just one fly out to right at Progressive Field.

(side notes: Andrew, I think you lost the “h” on the “http” in the hit chart link; and is there really no hit chart option for all stadiums?)

by dgcambridge on Sep 9, 2010 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, there is no “all stadium” option I saw. Which is really stupid. I’ll fix the link.

by afh4 on Sep 9, 2010 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

He still stays inside the ball for the most part, but since he’s come up I’ve noticed a big difference in him getting the bat head out front. He’s not pushing everything to LF. Frankly, he looks real good. He has turned on inside pitches since he’s come back up. He has a big frame, and I think he can develop some pull power (~ 10 HR?). Two of the three homers he’s hit have been no-doubters.

by TribeJay on Sep 9, 2010 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is what I keep telling myself. 6’2, 200lbs, 23 years old. I refuse to believe that a guy of that size, still probably growing, is a slap hitter.

by gte619n on Sep 10, 2010 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

See Hargrove, Mike.

Resident LGT results-oriented boob.

by mauichuck on Sep 10, 2010 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

I donno Chuck, I don’t really expect much from our managers in the OPS+ department.

by gte619n on Sep 10, 2010 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

With Brantley’s speed? I’ll take it.

by rockemsockem on Sep 10, 2010 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

I keep telling myself that, too, I just wish some scouts would tell myself that.

by Jay on Sep 10, 2010 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

if it is at all encouraging, Brantley’s GB% isn’t that high. It’s high, hovering right around 50% for most of his career, but that isn’t exactly Trevor Crowe MLB territory.

by APV on Sep 10, 2010 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t mind if he legs out a bunch of infield singles, I’m watching his ISO.

by Jay on Sep 10, 2010 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

I just figure his ISO isn’t going to go up without elevating a few more balls

by APV on Sep 11, 2010 9:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

“Still growing?”

That part I don’t understand. You mean he’s lifting weights? I’m pretty sure puberty ends long before age 23.

In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).

by V-Mart Shopper on Sep 12, 2010 3:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not sure how old you are, but most males continue to develop physically well into their 20s, adding upper body muscle and lower body bulk. A 30-year-old man does not look like he did at 19. This is why most major league hitters end up hitting more home runs in the majors than they had in the minors — minor league doubles become major league home runs.

by Jay on Sep 12, 2010 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hm. So there is hope for me yet! (mid 20’s).

I did get more muscular in my early 20’s, but I assumed that was because I never lifted weights before and suddenly started then.

In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).

by V-Mart Shopper on Sep 12, 2010 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh my — I forgot all about that guy who was selling Cy Young’s house. Legit lol when I read the mention of it above.

And check out that related video of Jhonny on the Brantley highlight!

by westbrook on Sep 9, 2010 6:27 PM EDT reply actions  

Andy Petitte is pitching in the Eastern League playoffs.

by afh4 on Sep 9, 2010 7:11 PM EDT reply actions  

Checking in our our playoffs:

Kinston 0-0 in the 4th.
Columbus down 1-0 in the 5th.
Lake County down 4-0 in the 6th.

All together we’ve got 5 hits, all singles.

by dgcambridge on Sep 9, 2010 7:53 PM EDT reply actions  

Columbus also trailing SWB 5-2 in the #-of-players-in-the-lineup-born-before-1983 contest.

by dgcambridge on Sep 9, 2010 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

I am 100% confident that I’m a fan, if that’s what you’re asking.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 9, 2010 11:01 PM EDT reply actions  

That is how I’ve decided to interpret the question as well. 100% confident, every time.

by Jay on Sep 9, 2010 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

I just want us to all vote 100 every time, so that the powers that be at SBN are forced to confront the fact that Cleveland fans are “100% confident” in their team. I mean, I don’t even know what I’m confident they’ll do but, hell, I’m 100% on it.

by afh4 on Sep 10, 2010 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

Is the SBN Cleveland “fan confidence poll” totally stupid? Like 100% stupid?

by odradek on Sep 10, 2010 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I did that at least once. I even thought I noticed a trend, thinking “everyone must also be doing this!” Then the trend stopped and started to come down again (think around Santana’s injury) and I probably stopped voting.

My self-confidence isn’t exactly soaring right now so maybe I should start voting 0% based on that.

In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).

by V-Mart Shopper on Sep 12, 2010 3:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

It may be too late, but I don’t think the Tribe should give up on Valbuena. This was a guy who OPS’d .714 in 103 games last year as a 23-year-old. This year he has some bizarre splits: in 121 plate appearances both home and away, he has been appalling at Progressive Field: .124/.217/.162, for a .379 OPS. Much of this derives from a .154 BABIP. On the road he isn’t great, but he’s a lot better: .238/.333/.324. He’s looked terrible at the plate, in a total funk. Maybe something is going on at home.

by odradek on Sep 9, 2010 11:44 PM EDT reply actions  

There’s a difference between giving up on a player and simply awarding a position and at bats to someone who performs better. Valgood (remember the good?) will be in the mix for the UT spot, but Donald pretty much has the lead for 2B going into next year.

Not that Donald is a lock – 2B going forward is still up for grabs. Phelps and Kipnis will both be at AAA next year, and the position is one of the few that has good depth and will be hotly contested going forward.

It’s not a question of writing anyone off – like Marte at 3B, its a question of taking advantage of opportunities.

by mcrose on Sep 10, 2010 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think, especially with the Brantley/Valgood guys, that we’re expecting guys to come up at 22/23 years old and go 800+. I mean, there is a happy medium between OH MY GOD PERENNIAL ALLSTAR and Greg Larocca.

by gte619n on Sep 10, 2010 10:48 AM EDT reply actions  

I loved Greg LaRocca, at least virtual Greg LaRocca, he was a beast for me in High Heat 2002.

by The Grimace on Sep 10, 2010 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Just wanted to point this out, thanks to Aaron Gleeman: After a 2-HR game last night, 23-year-old Colby Rasmus has an OPS+ equal to Grady Sizemore’s 2006 (133), when he was also 23. And not only has LaRussa been benching him, but he will probably be traded if LaRussa stays next year.

It’s nice to have tangible things to fuel my longtime dislike of LaRussa.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Sep 10, 2010 12:09 PM EDT reply actions  

The STL newspaper revealed this past Sunday that Rasmus had requested a trade earlier this year, so there is definitely potential for this to happen.

by Roger Dorn on Sep 10, 2010 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Now we know who Wedge aspires to become.

by westbrook on Sep 10, 2010 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Now if only he can learn the part about managing a bullpen and picking an otherworldly pitching coach.

by xrickx on Sep 10, 2010 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Constantly updated Indians news, lots of in-depth analysis, live in-game discussions — and more fanatical and thoughtful Indians fans than every other web site combined.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Dsc01731_small
Some quick questions for the locals
Etat_small
Eric's 2012 Cleveland Indians Projections...
Its_alive-fstn_small
Oswalt > Carmona/Heredia
Topps1978-332f_small
Indians by the Numbers — #24
Avatard_small
Nickname Seeks Indian — "Country Peach Passion"
Avatard_small
Nickname seeks Indian vote — "Fridge Magnet"
Topps1978-332f_small
Indians by the Numbers — #23
Small
Seriously Go Get Carlos Peña Now
Avatard_small
Indians by the Numbers — #22
Avatard_small
Nickname Seeks Indian: "Fridge Magnet"

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Featured Poll

Poll
Will Matt LaPorta be on the opening day roster?
Yes
59 votes
No
140 votes

199 votes | Poll has closed

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

Indians depth chart heading into spring training (from Acta's twitter account)
Cleveland reliever Vinnie Pestano had the highest fastball swinging-strike...
Oakland Out-Winnercurses MLB for Cespedes
Indians Sign Jon Garland
A look back at the last Tribe arbitration hearing
MLB.COM Tribe Top 20
Jared Goedert is Puddin Head Jones
Chisenhall v.  Hannahan
After watching Lindor in the Fall Instructional League, I have very little...
Coming off of an optimistic 80-82 season, is this the Indians window to win?  

See full post on Beyond the Box Score

+ New FanShot All FanShots >


Managers

427px-nap_lajoie_1913_small Ryan

Dosequisman_small Jay

Editors

3444ant_black_small APV

47b8dd28b3127cceb64839d9746800000026102bauwjrq3za_small afh4