2011 in Review: Fausto Carmona

 

Age 27 Season

2011 Salary: $6.1M

Service Time (est): 4.125

2012 Contract Status: Team Option ($7M)*

Options Remaining: 0

How Acquired: Non-Drafted Free Agent, 12-28-2000

If Opening Day was tomorrow: In the rotation (#4 or #5 starter).


*If option is exercised, 2013 ($9M) and 2014 ($12M) Team Options are available.

 

Repetroire (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Percentage Avg. Velocity
Fastball* 68.4% 92.5
Slider 13.3% 86.1
Change 18.4% 85.6

 

*Fausto throws both a four-seam and two-seam fastball, but both pitches are included in the same category.

2011 Transactions/Injuries

7-3-2011: Placed on 15-Day Disabled List (strained right quad)

7-18-2011: Reinstated from 15-Day Disabled List

 

Before I get into Carmona's season, a quick note on his contract. If the Indians decline the 2012 Team Option, Carmona would not automatically become a free agent, as Grady Sizemore would if the Indians decline the option on his contract. Fausto, believe it or not, only has a bit over four years of service time, so he would still be under the team's control. Doing that, though, would not likely save the Indians a lot of money, as the option would only raise his salary $900K from this year; going through the arbitration process would result in a contract pretty close to the option salary. Also, if Carmona does turn things around (I know, I know), the Indians would lose the opportunity of controlling him a year beyond free agent eligibility (2014). If the Indians are going to keep him, they might as well pick up the option.

Now for the performance. Carmona had some flashes of effectiveness, but also had some just plain awful stretches. One of the many awesome statistics found at Baseball-Reference is Game Score, which is a way of grading a start. Developed by Bill James, it starts with a score of 50 and adds or subtracts from that number depending on the good and bad things the pitcher did in the start. A Game Score of 50 would be equivalent to a Quality Start with a bunch of hits and walks, and a Game Score of 75 or greater represents a great start. Justin Verlander, for example, earned a Game Score of 40 or more in each one of his 34 starts this season, and had 13 starts with Game Scores greater than 70.

How did Fausto do? Here's a quick rundown:

Range Number
0-10 2
11-20 2
21-30 3
31-40 2
41-50 9
51-60 7
61-70 5
71+ 2

 

In other words, in 18 of Carmona's starts, he either gave up a lot of runs or didn't go very far into the game. In the former case, that meant the Indians had to outslug the opposition to win, something that was difficult to do with this year's club. In the latter case, that meant the bullpen needed to pitch at least 3 or 4 innings to keep the team in the game. Sometimes, his start removed any chance of winning, as was the case in his 7 starts with a Game Score of 30 or less. That's a lot of automatic losses.

So what does this portend for Fausto in 2012? I have no idea. His strikeout and walk rates were about the same in 2011 as 2010, when he was a perfectly good innings eater. He gave 22 home runs in 188.2 innings, a very high amount for a putative ground ball pitcher. I think his pitching mechanics are just difficult to maintain, and once they get out of whack, it takes a lot of effort to fix them.

If Carlos Carrasco were healthy, the Indians may have contemplated turning Carmona loose, but with the Indians needing innings in the rotation, I think they almost have to keep Fausto at $7M, especially with the option of controlling him for two seasons after that. Any decent starter on the free agent market is going to get $10M a season for 3 or 4 years, and while I think they'll look anyway, they need Carmona as at least a backup option. If they happen to land a free agent, they could probably still trade Carmona if they had to.

Year Age Tm Lg W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB Awards
2002 18 CLE-min Rk,A- 2 4 .333 3.14 16 11 4 0 0 1 80.1 91 36 28 4 11 0 42 1.270 10.2 0.4 1.2 4.7 3.82 BRL,MHV · APPY,NYPL
2003 19 CLE-min A,AA 17 4 .810 2.16 25 25 0 1 0 0 154.1 125 51 37 11 14 0 86 0.901 7.3 0.6 0.8 5.0 6.14 LCO,AKR · SALL,EL
2004 20 CLE-min AA,A+,AAA 10 10 .500 4.09 28 28 0 0 0 0 163.0 188 84 74 9 44 0 122 1.423 10.4 0.5 2.4 6.7 2.77 AKR,KIN,BFL · EL,CARL,IL
2005 21 CLE-min AA,AAA 13 9 .591 3.68 27 26 0 1 0 0 173.2 176 78 71 17 35 1 106 1.215 9.1 0.9 1.8 5.5 3.03 AKR,BFL · EL,IL
2006 22 CLE-min AAA 1 3 .250 5.53 6 5 0 0 0 0 27.2 28 21 17 2 8 0 28 1.301 9.1 0.7 2.6 9.1 3.50 BFL · IL
2006 22 CLE AL 1 10 .091 5.42 38 7 12 0 0 0 74.2 88 46 45 9 31 3 58 83 1.594 10.6 1.1 3.7 7.0 1.87
2007 23 CLE AL 19 8 .704 3.06 32 32 0 2 1 0 215.0 199 78 73 16 61 2 137 148 1.209 8.3 0.7 2.6 5.7 2.25 CYA-4,MVP-23
2008 24 CLE-min AA,A 1 0 1.000 1.00 2 2 0 0 0 0 9.0 10 1 1 0 0 0 5 1.111 10.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 AKR,LCO · EL,SALL
2008 24 CLE AL 8 7 .533 5.44 22 22 0 1 1 0 120.2 126 80 73 7 70 0 58 79 1.624 9.4 0.5 5.2 4.3 0.83
2009 25 CLE-min AAA,AA,A 3 3 .500 2.72 7 7 0 1 0 0 46.1 37 14 14 6 7 0 39 0.950 7.2 1.2 1.4 7.6 5.57 CLB,AKR,LCO · IL,EL,SALL
2009 25 CLE AL 5 12 .294 6.32 24 24 0 0 0 0 125.1 151 97 88 16 70 0 79 67 1.763 10.8 1.1 5.0 5.7 1.13
2010 26 CLE AL 13 14 .481 3.77 33 33 0 4 1 0 210.1 203 98 88 17 72 0 124 105 1.307 8.7 0.7 3.1 5.3 1.72 AS
2011 27 CLE AL 7 15 .318 5.25 32 32 0 0 0 0 188.2 205 125 110 22 60 3 109 76 1.405 9.8 1.0 2.9 5.2 1.82
6 Seasons 53 66 .445 4.59 181 150 12 7 3 0 934.2 972 524 477 87 364 8 565 92 1.429 9.4 0.8 3.5 5.4 1.55
162 Game Avg. 11 14 .445 4.59 37 31 2 1 1 0 192 200 108 98 18 75 2 116 92 1.429 9.4 0.8 3.5 5.4 1.55
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/5/2011.





Rk Gcar Gtm Date Opp Rslt Inngs Dec DR IP H R ER BB SO HR HBP ERA BF Pit Str StL StS GB FB LD PU Unk GSc WPA Exited
1 150 1 Apr 1 CHW L,10-15 GS-4 L(0-1) 99 3.0 11 10 10 1 5 2 0 30.00 21 88 59 13 8 7 8 5 0 0 1 -0.372 4t -23 0 out d8
2 151 6 Apr 7 BOS W,1-0 GS-7 5 7.0 2 0 0 2 4 0 0 9.00 25 109 64 22 8 11 8 1 0 0 75 0.435 7t 3 out tie
3 152 11 Apr 12 LAA L,0-2 GS-8 L(0-2) 4 7.2 4 2 2 3 6 2 0 6.11 30 118 70 20 14 14 7 0 2 0 66 0.074 8b 1-3 2 out d2
4 153 15 Apr 17 BAL W,4-2 GS-7 W(1-2) 4 7.0 5 2 1 1 5 0 0 4.74 25 101 61 11 14 13 6 2 2 0 65 0.219 7t 3 out a2
5 154 20 Apr 23 MIN L,3-10 GS-5 L(1-3) 5 5.0 7 6 6 4 1 0 0 5.76 25 85 49 12 5 13 7 2 2 0 26 -0.273 5b 3 out d5
6 155 24 Apr 28 KCR W,8-2 GS-7 W(2-3) 4 7.0 5 2 2 2 2 0 0 5.15 27 86 60 16 6 13 10 3 1 0 59 0.197 7t 3 out a6
May Opp Rslt Inngs Dec DR IP H R ER BB SO HR HBP ERA BF Pit Str StL StS GB FB LD PU Unk GSc WPA Exited
7 156 28 May 3 OAK W,4-1 GS-8 W(3-3) 4 8.0 5 1 1 1 5 0 0 4.43 29 96 64 20 8 14 9 3 0 0 72 0.359 8b 3 out tie
8 157 33 May 8 LAA L,5-6 GS-7 4 7.0 8 3 0 1 7 0 1 3.83 31 109 73 18 11 14 8 2 1 0 61 -0.138 7b 3 out d1
9 158 37 May 13 SEA W,5-4 GS-8 4 7.2 6 4 4 2 2 2 1 3.94 31 105 66 14 3 16 10 2 1 0 51 -0.248 8t 12- 2 out d2
10 159 41 May 19 CHW L,2-8 GS-5 L(3-4) 5 5.0 7 8 8 2 3 1 1 4.76 25 87 54 10 6 10 9 4 3 0 22 -0.407 5b 3 out d7
11 160 46 May 24 BOS L,2-4 GS-9 L(3-5) 4 8.0 5 4 4 1 7 1 1 4.73 31 108 73 21 11 14 8 5 0 0 62 -0.109 9t 1-- 0 out d3
12 161 51 May 30 TOR L,1-11 GS-4 L(3-6) 5 4.0 9 9 7 2 3 1 1 5.31 24 81 51 12 6 7 11 8 0 0 13 -0.372 4b 3 out d8
June Opp Rslt Inngs Dec DR IP H R ER BB SO HR HBP ERA BF Pit Str StL StS GB FB LD PU Unk GSc WPA Exited
13 162 56 Jun 4 TEX L,0-4 GS-7 L(3-7) 4 6.1 7 4 4 1 2 2 0 5.33 26 94 61 13 7 13 10 3 0 0 44 -0.095 7t 1-- 1 out d4
14 163 61 Jun 10 NYY L,7-11 GS-4 L(3-8) 5 4.0 8 6 6 3 2 2 1 5.71 24 93 45 13 3 9 9 4 0 0 21 -0.296 4b 3 out d6
15 164 66 Jun 15 DET W,6-4 GS-5 W(4-8) 4 5.0 7 4 2 2 3 1 0 5.60 26 103 63 16 9 14 7 2 0 0 42 -0.179 5b 3 out a1
16 165 71 Jun 20 COL L,7-8 GS-5 L(4-9) 4 4.2 9 7 7 2 0 1 0 5.98 24 81 52 12 4 11 11 4 2 0 16 -0.588 5t -2- 2 out d3
17 166 76 Jun 26 SFG L,1-3 GS-6 L(4-10) 5 6.0 7 3 3 3 4 0 0 5.89 28 107 71 15 14 13 8 6 0 0 47 -0.139 6b 3 out d2
July Opp Rslt Inngs Dec DR IP H R ER BB SO HR HBP ERA BF Pit Str StL StS GB FB LD PU Unk GSc WPA Exited
18 167 81 Jul 2 CIN W,3-1 GS-2 5 2.0 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 5.78 9 30 16 2 1 5 2 2 0 0 53 0.096 2b 3 out tie
19 168 95 Jul 18(2) MIN W,6-3 GS-6 W(5-10) 15 6.0 7 2 2 0 1 1 1 5.63 26 89 55 17 3 12 12 3 2 0 51 0.035 6b 3 out tie
20 169 100 Jul 25 LAA W,3-2 GS-6 6 6.0 4 0 0 3 3 0 0 5.34 24 100 61 18 9 6 12 6 1 0 64 0.363 6t 3 out a1
21 170 105 Jul 31 KCR L,3-5 GS-8 L(5-11) 5 7.1 6 4 4 3 2 2 0 5.31 30 96 63 15 4 13 12 5 2 0 49 -0.123 8t -2- 1 out d2
August Opp Rslt Inngs Dec DR IP H R ER BB SO HR HBP ERA BF Pit Str StL StS GB FB LD PU Unk GSc WPA Exited
22 171 111 Aug 6 TEX W,7-5 GS-7 5 6.1 6 4 2 1 2 0 1 5.19 29 89 60 13 5 14 11 7 2 0 50 -0.174 7b --3 1 out tie
23 172 115 Aug 11 DET L,3-4 GS-7 L(5-12) 4 7.0 7 4 3 2 6 0 0 5.12 30 110 70 14 16 11 11 5 1 0 53 -0.046 7t 3 out d1
24 173 119 Aug 17 CHW W,4-1 GS-9 W(6-12) 5 8.1 4 1 1 3 6 1 0 4.89 31 118 76 20 13 16 6 3 1 0 74 0.371 9b 1-- 1 out a3
25 174 124 Aug 22 SEA L,2-3 GS-6 4 6.0 6 2 1 1 6 1 2 4.76 26 109 71 19 16 7 10 4 1 0 59 0.133 6t 3 out tie
26 175 129 Aug 27 KCR W,8-7 GS-7 4 6.1 8 6 5 1 2 0 1 4.85 27 91 61 16 3 14 9 5 0 0 36 -0.337 7t 1-3 1 out tie
September Opp Rslt Inngs Dec DR IP H R ER BB SO HR HBP ERA BF Pit Str StL StS GB FB LD PU Unk GSc WPA Exited
27 176 134 Sep 1 OAK L,0-7 GS-7 L(6-13) 4 6.0 8 4 3 2 6 0 0 4.84 29 95 61 20 6 12 9 7 0 0 46 -0.109 7t 123 0 out d3
28 177 139 Sep 6 DET L,1-10 GS-2 L(6-14) 4 1.1 8 7 7 1 0 0 0 5.18 13 41 24 8 2 5 7 6 1 0 9 -0.410 2t -2- 1 out d6
29 178 143 Sep 10 CHW L,3-7 GS-6 3 5.1 6 3 3 2 4 0 1 5.18 25 103 63 12 10 7 11 3 2 0 46 0.006 6b -23 1 out a1
30 179 147 Sep 15 TEX L,4-7 GS-6 L(6-15) 4 6.0 7 6 5 5 3 1 0 5.26 29 104 54 13 7 11 10 4 1 0 34 -0.168 6b 3 out d6
31 180 152 Sep 20(1) CHW W,4-3 GS-6 W(7-15) 4 6.0 7 3 3 2 3 0 1 5.23 26 94 58 14 9 12 8 5 0 0 47 0.031 6t 3 out a1
32 181 159 Sep 25 MIN L,4-6 GS-7 4 6.1 7 4 4 1 3 1 0 5.25 27 101 64 9 9 14 9 2 0 0 45 -0.175 7t -2- 1 out tie
188.2 205 125 110 60 109 22 14 5.25 833
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/12/2011.
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