Daily Tribe News: October 30, 2011

by Ryan on Oct 30, 2011 8:35 AM EDT in News

Grady Sizemore is likely headed to the open market.

Indians likely to decline Grady Sizemore's option | indians.com: News

LakeCounty-Sentinel.com - Indians decline option on Grady Sizemore, making outfielder a free agent - 10/29/2011 " LakeCounty-Sentinel - "Lake County Ohio's online news source"

The Indians haven't made anything official, but the consensus is that they will decline Grady Sizemore's $9M 2012 Option. In Tony Lada's Sentinel story, he also reports that the Indians would like to keep Sizemore, but on a one year incentive-heavy contract. That's understandable, but now unless Sizemore really wants to stay with the Indians, he'll probably get a better deal somewhere else. Sure, he isn't getting $9M guaranteed by anyone else, but someone else with a lower risk tolerance will offer a multi-year deal.

The Indians have until three days after the World Series to make a decision on both Sizemore's and Carmona's option, so that would mean that Monday will be the deadline.

Cleveland Indians should take time to think before re-signing Grady Sizemore: Terry Pluto | cleveland.com

Terry Pluto begins his piece with a thought experiment: would the Indians spend $9M on Sizemore if he was a free agent and had played his entire major-league career with the Indians. I think the answer is no, and so does Pluto. The real question all along has been whether Sizemore would be willing to renogotiate his contract, but with the deadline approaching, that possibility seems to be going away. The Indians will have an exclusive window in which to negotiate with Sizemore, but usually once a player gets to this point, he's going to go out on the open market.

Fausto Carmona, in contrast, has been almost a completely different player. He's largely remained healthy, but he's been ineffective for long stretches, including much of last season. Still, the Indians are going to need innings, and Carmona's $7M option isn't a huge overpay for a starting pitcher. The other major factor is that Carmona does not have enough service time to file for free agency, plus his contract is structured so that the Indians could keep him through 2014 if he turns things around. With Sizemore, 2012 would be it.

Cleveland Indians sign catcher Luke Carlin to minor league deal | cleveland.com

Carlin played some with the Indians in 2010, and has had success at the plate from time to time in the minors.

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Comments

I understand that declining Sizemore’s option is the smart move. But I also think it is a mistake. MLB traderumors (!) actually has a handy recap of the Indians’ offseason outlook. In it, they say:

Sizemore offers more offensive upside than free agent alternatives

I think that is the crux of the issue. Is there a high probability of him returning that upside?…no. But it is a risk Cleveland needs to take.

by APV on Oct 30, 2011 1:22 PM EDT reply actions

I’m torn.

Whether it makes sense to cut ties with Grady depends on what the Indians will use that money to buy. And even if Cleveland has somebody targeted, it’s not certain that they can sign that free agent. Josh Willingham? Coco Crisp? David DeJesus? Cody Ross?

Is Grady a Lance Berkman or a Jermaine Dye type rebound candidate? I guess that’s the $9M question.

by xrickx on Oct 30, 2011 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions

I just don’t see us using that $9M on anything that excites me

by APV on Oct 30, 2011 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs

$9 million these days doesn’t buy what it used to.

by woodsmeister on Oct 31, 2011 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions

It can’t even buy you happiness. Close, though.

by YoDaddyWags on Oct 31, 2011 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions

Although I didn’t expect $5M of it to go to D Lowe right off the bat

by APV on Oct 31, 2011 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree.

Unless of course Grady just doesn’t want to be here anymore. But who knows? I think we’ve got to try to think of a creative way to bring him back. We need more “impact” talent all around the diamond.

by jhon on Oct 30, 2011 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions

It’s not that I don’t think there is a high probability, I think there is a very, very low probability.

"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway

by notthatnoise on Oct 31, 2011 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions

I’m in on the flyer that is Grady. I get the front office if they decline it, but we are one next injury from EZ or Trevor Crowe on a regular basis, with no hope/dream/twinkle-in-the-midnight-sky-Grady in the wings.

Just seems that $9 million would get you a similar risk profile that Grade offers, if we are shooting for high upside. I don’t know—I just think we have to be all-in next year, and Grady is only only guy who can possibly be stellar. We have question marks all-over. I’m ok with one more if it’s Grady.

I don’t agree with Terry Pluto’s analogy, that no fan would agree to a similar $9 M deal with a like free agent. I think the Tribe is married to Grady, so to speak. You don’t drop the sick wife with one year to live for greener pastures with similarly sick person (or mediocre mate). I think there is a history here that makes it somewhat worth salvaging. This case feels sui generis for me. I don’t mind being a little sentimental if it drops me on the side of Grady.

All thing being nearly equal, I guess I want to go to the dance in 2012 with the girl that brung me from 2004-2008, especially if it’s one last dance.

by Bogalusa Bomber on Oct 30, 2011 5:17 PM EDT reply actions

Why not wait to see what offers Grady gets? Why just overpay him from the get-go?

Also, you seem to assume that he wants to return. He doesn’t say much. Maybe he would prefer to play in Seattle or somewhere else. Do we want to pay $9M to a malcontent?

by palcal on Oct 31, 2011 1:34 AM EDT up reply actions

Yes, we can still overpay to keep him – just at less than $9 million.

by DixonCayne on Oct 31, 2011 6:46 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree with this, why not play it out and see where he wants to go and for how much. I know we all keep hearing about the one year incentive laden contract, but if he were available for 2 years at 9 million (4.5 per season) or 3 for 15,, wouldn’t that make more sense? Sure I love the idea of seeing grady out in Center, my daughters all love him, but we need to get the most out of our money, and for the past two years his salary could have been put to a better use than recovering from injury. I like the idea of a longer term contract that keeps him for a while, instead of a one year big money deal.

by AdaminFL on Oct 31, 2011 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions