Transactions: A Busy Halloween

by Ryan on Nov 1, 2011 7:07 AM EDT in Transactions

Declined Grady Sizemore's 2012 Team Option ($500K Buyout)

Exercised Fausto Carmona's 2012 Team Option ($7.0M)

It made sense to decline Sizemore's option. He hadn't been able to stay on the field in his last three seasons, and he's not going to get near that amount in guaranteed money on the open market. What once would have seemed a foregone conclusion to pick up turned into a foregone conclusion to decline. Multiple knee surgeries and other injuries have not only kept Sizemore out of the lineup, but also put into question his future as an everyday position player. If you can't stay on the field, talent doesn't mean much, and although I believe the talent is still there, he's now going to have to prove that he can play a full season. There will no shortage of teams interested in taking a flier or even offering a multi-year deal on Sizemore, as he's only 29 years old and more than enough power to play in a corner.

Those are the hard facts, but there's also an emotional side to this as well. In 2004, when he first appeared in the majors as a 21-year-old, the sky seemed the limit. He hit .289/.348/.484 as a 22-year-old and was only going to get better. He won the first of what would probably by many Gold Gloves in 2007. He was a joy to watch both in the field and on the base paths. And he was durable; in his first four full seasons, he appeared in at least 157 games. After the 2008 season, it seemed that we were watching the beginnings of a Hall of Fame career, and he was only going to get better. And he was going to be in an Indian for the next four season, presumably through a good portion of his prime.

Then, the injuries started to happen. He made his first trip to the DL in late May of 2009, and also missed much of September of that season. Then, the major knee injuries happened, and the 2010 and 2011 seasons were almost total washes. Still, even with three seasons' worth of major injuries, declining a $9M option was difficult, because even with reason telling you that it was the right thing to do, you still believe that the magic isn't gone.

Traded LHP Chris Jones (A+) to the Atlanta Braves for RHP Derek Lowe (Braves to pay $10M of Lowe's $15M 2012 Salary)

Th reasoning here makes some sense. The Indians needed another starter, and the free agent pickings were slim to say the least. Derek Lowe is not the pitcher he once was, but he has been durable, and the Indians aren't counting on him to be one of their best pitchers. They have a lot of young starter depth (though more quantity than quality), so they also don't have to count on Lowe making 30 starts. Lowe is probably more Jack Morris than Dennis Martinez at this stage of his career, though; although his FIP (3.70) was actually pretty decent everything else (loss in velocity, increase walk rates) points to an aging pitcher that isn't going to bounce back. He's also going to be pitching in front of a below-average to poor infield defense, and in a much tougher league. I'm not expecting much, but if he gives the Indians 150 innings and 20 starts, he'll be worth $5M and a marginal prospect.

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Comments

I’m giving us a 3 for 3 on Halloween.

With or Without the H

by johnf34 on Nov 1, 2011 8:11 AM EDT reply actions

Personally, I’m glad I kept my Halloween expenses under $12.5M

by APV on Nov 1, 2011 8:28 AM EDT reply actions

How about maybe trading a couple guys like Hermann and Huff for Nyjer Morgan?

Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic. - Robert S. Wieder

by jerseywahoo on Nov 1, 2011 2:00 PM EDT reply actions

I still would rather target Mayberry Jr from the Phillies. This is provided Brantley can stick in center though.

by talonk on Nov 1, 2011 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Mayberry? He’s not a serious talent. If he wasn’t named Mayberry, you wouldn’t even know about him.

by Jay on Nov 1, 2011 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions

What isn’t to like about him? He is no longer a top prospect entering his age 28 season, but he hit 273/341/513 130 OPS+ last year in 296 PA.

That is just a skosh better than our OF last year (sans a healthy Choo of course). You do realize that Duncan was our most productive OF last year at 123 OPS+ and that is because he had a fantastic finish. Even if there is an upgrade in the move to the AL, I’d expect Mayberry to post around a 110-115 OPS+.

He isn’t arbitration eligible until 2014 and not a free agent until 2017. He doesn’t have a job with the Phillies next year with Domonic Brown, Victorino and Pence in the OF.

by talonk on Nov 1, 2011 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Considering that the Phillies need a closer, sending Chris Perez there way seems to make sense. But it looks like they’re not planning to start Brown next year. It doesn’t quite make sense to me, but maybe they just undervalue him? Brown was rumored to be going everywhere for just about everyone at the deadline, including a 1-for-1 swap for Beltran. Maybe those were just wild rumors, but Philly also might be switching into the same desperation mode that the Yankees seem to every few years now that they’ve built an expensive team that didn’t win, and consequently the possibility of breaking in a rookie is irrationally seen as a huge liability.

by J83 on Nov 1, 2011 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Well if that is the case, do they want to put Mayberry out there too? He is not a rookie, but not a seasoned player either.

Ibanez became a FA, so maybe they’ll target Cody Ross or Willingham as a one year stop gap until Brown is ready?

I am not proposing sending Chris Perez for him, but maybe Herrmann and Zeke? They need a bullpen arm and they could use a fourth OF. I’d love to throw Crowe in there, but I doubt he has much value at all.

by talonk on Nov 1, 2011 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Why would any team put any value in Herrmann, Carrera, or Crowe? These guys are the very very definition of replacement level, at best.

by callmrplow on Nov 3, 2011 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions

It’s just aiming low as upgrades go. We traded them Ben Francisco, you want to get the same kind of guy back now?

by Jay on Nov 1, 2011 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions

As option A heading into the offseason, it’s probably not a good idea, but he probably would be one of the top 3-4 options on this team right now, which would have some value.

by callmrplow on Nov 3, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions

He is no longer a top prospect entering his age 28 season

Let us be clear: HE WAS NEVER A TOP PROSPECT.

Well, maybe at the moment he was drafted, but never after that. He was 23.5 when he graduated to Double-A, and he wasn’t good there. By the time he hit Triple-A, he was approaching non-prospect status and his 25th birthday. He was a marginal Triple-A player at age 26.

This guy is a spare part. You want to pick him up to add some depth, in lieu of a guy like Fukudome, I guess that’s okay. But why not target a guy like Brown instead?

by Jay on Nov 1, 2011 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions

HE WAS NEVER A TOP PROSPECT

Which is precisely the kind of player we should be trying to find on the cheap. If he isn’t a top prospect, he isn’t going to cost a ton. And just based on the numbers, he is already better than anyone else we have, except Choo. Now will he continue those numbers? Maybe, maybe not. But wouldn’t you be willing to trade a spare part like Raffy for him? If he doesn’t pan out, its no big loss. But if he sustains his 2011 numbers, we make out pretty decently. I don’t see the big risk, especially since we don’t have any upper level OFs ready right now.

I like Brown, who wouldn’t, but he is going to cost a lot more talent. And we really don’t have the upper end talent to get a prospect like Brown.

by talonk on Nov 2, 2011 2:31 AM EDT up reply actions

To be clear, he hasn’t been ANY kind of a prospect for two years.

I would rather take a flier on a toolsy guy who’s had trouble breaking in. This guy, he’s like all those too-old prospects we let go who occasionally get a start for Toronto.

by Jay on Nov 2, 2011 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions

What kind of toolsy guys are you thinking of? Give me some examples so I have an idea.

by talonk on Nov 2, 2011 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions

travis snider

I like ex-Phillies prospects.

by Gradyforpresident on Nov 3, 2011 1:45 AM EDT up reply actions

Interesting .. he was fantastic in AAA in 09, 1094 OPS (Albeit in the hitter happy PCL). He is young enough to still be a prospect, but was awful in 2011 (in mlb): 225/269/348 65 OPS+.

The main problem I see with him isnt that he bit hard in 2011, it is that he bats LH. Our assumption right now is that Grady isn’t coming back, right?

If we acquire Snider, our entire OF would be LH batters. Actually even with Sizemore that is true too. I’d much rather pursue a RH OF for next season, just to even the lineup a little.

Our projected lineup with Grady or Fukadome coming back would be 6 LH batters, 2 Switch (Drrobs and Carlos) and RH LaPorta (?). I’d like to see at least one more RH bat.

by talonk on Nov 3, 2011 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions

Need to balance out the rotation so the clubhouse doesn’t list.

by FredOx on Nov 3, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions

If we could get half a dozen guys in the lineup who could actually hit, I wouldn’t give two pints of crap what side of the plate they swung from.

by Joel D on Nov 3, 2011 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Brown, for one.

by Jay on Nov 4, 2011 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions

And what do you propse we trade to get him?

by talonk on Nov 4, 2011 1:36 AM EDT up reply actions

Perez?

by Jay on Nov 9, 2011 8:27 AM EST up reply actions

I don’t think Raffy would be enough. If you meant Chris, well it seems they are hellbent on acquiring Papelbon, etc. So I don’t believe Chris Perez is going to entice them enough either.

by talonk on Nov 10, 2011 7:29 PM EST up reply actions

I’m imagining a larger deal on both sides.

by Jay on Nov 11, 2011 12:37 AM EST up reply actions

Exactly. If Philly is going to be trading outfielders, you have to get Brown. If not, then there’s no reason to make a deal with Philly. There are better young bats than Mayberry stuck behind established stars elsewhere that the Indians could target.

by J83 on Nov 2, 2011 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions

Would love to hear what these targets may be.

by talonk on Nov 2, 2011 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

I’m not going to make wild predictions. But the Reds, for example, already have the Votto/Alonso issue. Brandon Belt was bounced around by SF, as was Jerry Sands by LA. I’m picking the cream-of-the-crop guys, here, and there are surely others that people with a broader knowledge of the minors would point out off the tops of their heads. But the pendulum seems to be swinging back a bit in the direction of teams willing to deal good prospects, and most of the suitors for the big-name bats this off-season have young hitters who are going to be displaced if they land those bats. Those MLB-ready prospects should be the Indians focus.

Granted, I do see your point about Mayberry if we can really get him for cast-offs like Hermann or whoever, but I doubt that’s going to happen. On the other hand, if we’re talking about dealing the Perezes or other significant parts, the aim should be higher. And, well, if the (wild?) speculation that the Indians might want to sell high on Droobs is correct, then the aim should be even higher still.

by J83 on Nov 2, 2011 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions

To emphasize the point about Mayberry’s 2.5 WAR 2011 year likely being a fluke, he only posted an above-.800 OPS in the minors in one season: 2006 in mid-A ball. There’s a really high risk we’d be buying way, way high on Mayberry, when we should be doing the opposite with a higher ceiling bat.

by J83 on Nov 2, 2011 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions

I totally understand that Mayberry’s minors numbers don’t look all that great.

But each and everyone of those high level prospects you have named is going to cost us what little top end talent we still have (do we have any?). Would a Donald/Huff help in those deals? Maybe, but only if they were smaller pieces. To get a ML ready young OFer is going to cost us a Chisenhall, a Kipnis, C Perez or like you said Droobs (most likely one of them and perhaps a smaller prospect). {the only reason I mentioned Raffy is that he is due for a decent arbitration bump this year]

Do we really want to to make that huge of a change based on a top level prospect who may or may not pan out when we are trying to make a run at a division title in 2012?

My rationale for trying to get Mayberry wasn’t because he was a “name” like Jay thinks. But rather treat him like a non roster invite. He probably wouldn’t cost a lot to get, and if he pans out, we are all the better for it. If he doesn’t we really haven’t lost much since most of the talent we do have is in relief.

As is noted below, the FA list is pretty weak. But we may have to resort to that type of pickup. I just don’t see any trading pieces to retrieve a top OF prospect back. But I am also not the prospect guru like APV or Jay either. Maybe they’ll have better insight.

by talonk on Nov 2, 2011 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Obviously, it would be hard to deal Kipnis or Chiz to get one of those top guys. But, then again, it might might be something the FO would do if they think just plugging Donald or Hannahan into there makes sense.

But I can say without hesitation that I would be happy to send both Perezes and Huff or whatever borderline #5 starter you can think of if the Indians got a top-10 hitting prospect back in return, because then we’re not only talking about the hitter but the money saved by dealing two relievers at peak value. I would be really, REALLY surprised if we could swing a deal like that, but who knows? All it takes is one team…

by J83 on Nov 2, 2011 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m going to miss Grady, and I hope there’s some way we can rework a contract so he can come back, because a healthy Grady (big IF i know) makes this lineup much better.

I guess I’m happy to see Fausto back, but he is very frustrating to watch at times. He’ll have days where he goes 8 scoreless innings, is a groundball-strikeout machine, and makes hitters look silly. Then he’ll go give up 7 runs in 3 innings the next night.

by tr1betime on Nov 1, 2011 4:55 PM EDT reply actions

Then he’ll go give up 7 runs in 3 innings the next night.

He was probably tired from going 8 innings the night before.

by Matt in LA on Nov 1, 2011 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions 7 recs

Easy rec.

by Joel D on Nov 2, 2011 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions

They filled in the rotation here with a durable pitcher, which is the most important thing probably, and he’s a guy who we can hope still has passable skills (which would be a bonus). I like it.

I wonder if Derrick Lowe’s reasonable price will mean the Indians now have some money to spend on a first baseman (or a left fielder) with some pop? Then I would really like this trade.

by MTF on Nov 1, 2011 5:34 PM EDT reply actions

who did you have your eye on? Cot’s has the 2012 list up.

The OF on there that could be targeted might include Dejesus, Gomes, Kubel? I honestly have no idea.

by talonk on Nov 1, 2011 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Those 3 names make be want to vomit.

Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.

by USSChoo on Nov 1, 2011 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

That’s a mediocre list. It looks like another winter of trade effort, and perhaps we can get lucky. I wonder what the Marlins would want for Mike Stanton, their RH power hitting OF’er… Our entire bullpen? Paul Cousineau was hoping for Mike Morse last year, and he’d still be a good choice; I wonder if the Nationals would consider trading him.

When Fielder and Pujols decide where they are signing there will be some first basemen available in turn.

Time for the Hot Stove to get warmed up.

by MTF on Nov 2, 2011 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Based on nothing, my gut says keeping Fausto and ditching Grady should have been done in reverse.

My watch is broken... it's stuck on Tribe Time
#suckitLaw

by Turkmenbashi on Nov 1, 2011 7:46 PM EDT reply actions

Emotion might say that, logic suggests the Indians made the right decision.

As Ryan pointed out, all of Grady’s talent, whatever is left, doesn’t mean much if he can’t stay on the field. Fausto has stayed on the field for the most part, and while his inconsistency is maddening, you’d be hard-pressed to find a pitcher who throws a gem every so often for that price or less. Also, the Indians were almost forced to pick up Carmona’s option (or more accurately, keep Carmona) with Carrasco being out for all of 2012.

Personally, it wouldn’t shock me to see Grady out of baseball within the next few years, much like Darin Erstad disappeared, and for much of the same reason – too many injuries in too short of a time “ages” the player quickly, resulting in him becoming pretty much of a bench player or presence, and not much more. Maybe Grady’s health rebounds, but it seems, quite often, once you experience these nagging injuries for a 2-3 year period, it seems that those nagging injuries continue to hound most players throughout the rest of their careers, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Grady also falls in that trend as well.

The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

by indiansfan on Nov 1, 2011 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Darin Erstad was 36 when he disappeared.

And did you know he was a punter in college!

by callmrplow on Nov 3, 2011 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Erstad was more like 27 when he disappeared. OPS+ 137 at 26, then the following:
82, 86, 72, 97, 87, 57, 68, 78, 58.

by Bogalusa Bomber on Nov 3, 2011 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Personally, it wouldn’t shock me to see Grady out of baseball within the next few years, much like Darin Erstad disappeared

by callmrplow on Nov 4, 2011 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions

But there is a big difference. Erstad didn’t decline—he never was really that great to begin with.

He had two so-so seasons, OPS+ of 112 and 114, then a comically bad season of 72 (72!!), before his .375 BABIP “breakout” season of 137. Then he became who he always was.

by Bogalusa Bomber on Nov 5, 2011 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions

I think it’s pretty clear he was saying that Erstad was out of baseball, not that he wasn’t very good. I wouldn’t dispute that.

by callmrplow on Nov 7, 2011 9:34 AM EST up reply actions

i have a dark feeling deep in my gut that grady is going to have a good year this year if he’s with another team

by tr1betime on Nov 1, 2011 8:39 PM EDT reply actions

But not if he’s with us?

by Jay on Nov 1, 2011 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions

That wouldn’t be a dark feeling.

by callmrplow on Nov 3, 2011 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Aramis Ramirez

I wouldnt mind seeing him in an Indian uniform but I know that its wishful thinking. Especially with the development of Chisenhall and probably the asking price from Ramirez.

BREAKING NEWS! Apple is releasing a special edition LeBron James iPhone. Problem is it only vibrates b/c it has no RING!...

by siejecy on Nov 1, 2011 9:00 PM EDT reply actions