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2011 Indians, Against The Odds

Here is a look at how the Indians 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Indians games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4800 which translates to an expected win total of 77.77 games.  If you do the same for my simulation of each Indians game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4764 or 77.18 wins.  The Indians actually went 80-82 on the season.  Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Indians were the largest favorite to win.

Star-divide

RankDateAway SPHome SPAwayHomeFaveFave Win PercCLE Win PercSim CLE Win PercWinning TeamAway RunsHome RunsTotal Runs
1 08-23-2011 Blake Beavan Justin Masterson SEA CLE CLE 67.213 67.213 69.018 CLE 5 7 12
2 09-23-2011 Carl Pavano Justin Masterson MIN CLE CLE 64.789 64.789 64.03 CLE 5 6 11
3 08-28-2011 Bruce Chen Justin Masterson KC CLE CLE 63.834 63.834 68.593 KC 2 1 3
4 05-13-2011 Doug Fister Fausto Carmona SEA CLE CLE 61.832 61.832 51.101 CLE 4 5 9
5 09-25-2011 Liam Hendriks Fausto Carmona MIN CLE CLE 61.686 61.686 58.699 MIN 6 4 10
6 08-26-2011 Felipe Paulino Ubaldo Jimenez KC CLE CLE 61.014 61.014 59.245 CLE 1 2 3
7 08-27-2011 Danny Duffy Fausto Carmona KC CLE CLE 60.707 60.707 60.879 CLE 7 8 15
8 08-22-2011 Jason Vargas Fausto Carmona SEA CLE CLE 60.552 60.552 57.223 SEA 3 2 5
9 04-28-2011 Kyle Davies Fausto Carmona KC CLE CLE 60.396 60.396 55.575 CLE 2 8 10
10 07-30-2011 Felipe Paulino Justin Masterson KC CLE CLE 60.239 60.239 59.945 CLE 2 5 7
11 06-08-11 Carl Pavano Justin Masterson MIN CLE CLE 59.92 59.92 61.338 MIN 3 2 5
12 08-12-11 Carl Pavano Justin Masterson MIN CLE CLE 59.92 59.92 58.056 CLE 2 3 5
13 08-23-2011 Anthony Vasquez Zachary McAllister SEA CLE CLE 59.839 59.839 59.188 SEA 12 7 19
14 09-21-2011 Mark Buehrle Ubaldo Jimenez CHA CLE CLE 59.596 59.596 57.14 CHA 8 4 12
15 04-26-2011 Luke Hochevar Justin Masterson KC CLE CLE 59.432 59.432 63.992 CLE 4 9 13
16 09-19-2011 Charles Furbush David Huff SEA CLE CLE 59.1 59.1 61.11 SEA 12 6 18
17 06-18-2011 Paul Maholm Carlos Carrasco PIT CLE CLE 58.678 58.678 60.288 CLE 1 5 6
18 06-06-11 Scott Baker Josh Tomlin MIN CLE CLE 58.592 58.592 57.14 MIN 6 4 10
19 06-19-2011 Jeff Karstens Justin Masterson PIT CLE CLE 58.592 58.592 68.043 CLE 2 5 7
20 06-17-2011 Kevin Correia Josh Tomlin PIT CLE CLE 58.506 58.506 62.764 CLE 1 5 6
21 08-10-11 Rick Porcello Ubaldo Jimenez DET CLE CLE 58.42 58.42 53.679 CLE 3 10 13
22 08-13-2011 Brian Duensing Josh Tomlin MIN CLE CLE 57.537 57.537 49.334 CLE 1 3 4
23 05-01-11 Phil Coke Justin Masterson DET CLE CLE 57.447 57.447 57.192 CLE 4 5 9
24 09-18-2011 Justin Masterson Carl Pavano CLE MIN CLE 57.082 57.082 55.9 CLE 6 5 11
25 09-24-2011 Scott Diamond Mitch Talbot MIN CLE CLE 57.082 57.082 56.15 CLE 6 7 13
26 07-31-2011 Kyle Davies Fausto Carmona KC CLE CLE 56.989 56.989 56.65 KC 5 3 8
27 04-27-2011 Jeff Francis Josh Tomlin KC CLE CLE 56.803 56.803 55.316 CLE 2 7 9
28 08-31-2011 Rich Harden Ubaldo Jimenez OAK CLE CLE 56.616 56.616 61.714 CLE 3 4 7
29 07-24-2011 Edwin Jackson Justin Masterson CHA CLE CLE 56.522 56.522 54.806 CHA 4 2 6
30 06-07-11 Francisco Liriano Carlos Carrasco MIN CLE CLE 56.427 56.427 57.81 CLE 0 1 1
31 04-17-2011 Brad Bergesen Fausto Carmona BAL CLE CLE 55.654 55.654 47.302 CLE 2 4 6
32 09-16-2011 Ubaldo Jimenez Kevin Slowey CLE MIN CLE 55.654 55.654 48.572 CLE 7 6 13
33 07-29-2011 Jeff Francis Carlos Carrasco KC CLE CLE 55.457 55.457 56.499 KC 12 0 12
34 08-09-11 Doug Fister Justin Masterson DET CLE CLE 55.257 55.257 53.247 CLE 2 3 5
35 05-10-11 Andy Sonnanstine Josh Tomlin TB CLE CLE 55.157 55.157 51.152 CLE 5 4 9
36 08-18-2011 Justin Masterson Phil Humber CLE CHA CLE 54.649 54.649 55.49 CLE 4 2 6
37 08-29-2011 Brandon McCarthy David Huff OAK CLE CLE 54.442 54.442 53.269 CLE 1 2 3
38 07-10-11 Brett Cecil Carlos Carrasco TOR CLE CLE 54.338 54.338 60.03 TOR 7 1 8
39 05-16-2011 Josh Tomlin Kyle Davies CLE KC CLE 54.023 54.023 47.18 CLE 19 1 20
40 06-22-2011 Jason Hammel Josh Tomlin COL CLE CLE 53.811 53.811 53.992 CLE 3 4 7
41 09-02-11 Justin Masterson Bruce Chen CLE KC CLE 53.596 53.596 56.281 CLE 5 4 9
42 06-02-11 Dave Bush Carlos Carrasco TEX CLE CLE 53.488 53.488 52.744 TEX 7 4 11
43 09-05-11 Doug Fister Ubaldo Jimenez DET CLE CLE 53.162 53.162 50.827 DET 4 2 6
44 09-06-11 Rick Porcello Fausto Carmona DET CLE CLE 52.941 52.941 51.115 DET 10 1 11
45 08-30-2011 Trevor Cahill Jeanmar Gomez OAK CLE CLE 52.941 52.941 52.94 CLE 2 6 8
46 06-04-11 Derek Holland Fausto Carmona TEX CLE CLE 52.719 52.719 46.584 TEX 4 0 4
47 06-20-2011 Juan Nicasio Fausto Carmona COL CLE CLE 52.267 52.267 56.092 COL 8 7 15
48 04-30-2011 Rick Porcello Alex White DET CLE CLE 52.153 52.153 43.49 CLE 2 3 5
49 09-22-2011 Phil Humber Jeanmar Gomez CHA CLE CLE 52.153 52.153 48.93 CLE 2 11 13
50 05-06-11 Justin Masterson Tyler Chatwood CLE LAA CLE 52.038 52.038 54.616 LAA 1 2 3
51 04-20-2011 Justin Masterson Luke Hochevar CLE KC CLE 51.923 51.923 55.421 CLE 7 5 12
52 09-17-2011 Jeanmar Gomez Anthony Swarzak CLE MIN CLE 51.691 51.691 47.66 CLE 10 4 14
53 07-08-11 Jo-Jo Reyes Mitch Talbot TOR CLE CLE 51.574 51.574 50.534 TOR 11 7 18
54 05-17-2011 Carlos Carrasco Sean O'Sullivan CLE KC CLE 51.22 51.22 53.608 CLE 7 3 10
55 07-09-11 Brandon Morrow Josh Tomlin TOR CLE CLE 51.1 51.1 47.377 TOR 5 4 9
56 04-18-2011 Carlos Carrasco Kyle Davies CLE KC CLE 51.1 51.1 48.452 CLE 7 3 10
57 04-21-2011 Josh Tomlin Sean O'Sullivan CLE KC CLE 51.1 51.1 49.687 KC 2 3 5
58 07-16-2011 Carlos Carrasco Alfredo Simon CLE BAL CLE 51.1 51.1 46.855 BAL 5 6 11
59 09-01-11 Gio Gonzalez Fausto Carmona OAK CLE CLE 50.86 50.86 49.904 OAK 7 0 7
60 07-14-2011 Justin Masterson Jeremy Guthrie CLE BAL CLE 50.86 50.86 52.112 CLE 8 4 12
61 05-22-2011 Edinson Volquez Carlos Carrasco CIN CLE CLE 50.617 50.617 48.734 CLE 4 12 16
62 06-29-2011 Carlos Carrasco Zach Duke CLE ARI CLE 50.617 50.617 47.213 CLE 6 2 8
63 05-21-2011 Homer Bailey Josh Tomlin CIN CLE CLE 50.495 50.495 42.665 CLE 1 2 3
64 07-06-11 Phil Hughes Justin Masterson NYA CLE CLE 50.249 50.249 53.982 CLE 3 5 8
65 04-16-2011 Jeremy Guthrie Josh Tomlin BAL CLE CLE 50.249 50.249 42.366 CLE 3 8 11
66 07-22-2011 Gavin Floyd Carlos Carrasco CHA CLE CLE 50.249 50.249 52.643 CHA 3 0 3
67 04-01-11 Mark Buehrle Fausto Carmona CHA CLE CLE 50 50 53.153 CHA 15 10 25
68 09-24-2011 Brian Duensing David Huff MIN CLE CLE 50 50 50 CLE 2 8 10
69 04-15-2011 Zach Britton Justin Masterson BAL CLE BAL 50.249 49.751 55.631 CLE 2 8 10
70 08-24-2011 Felx Hernandez Josh Tomlin SEA CLE SEA 50.249 49.751 50.613 SEA 9 2 11
71 07-17-2011 Jeanmar Gomez Mitch Atkins CLE BAL BAL 50.495 49.505 42.496 BAL 3 8 11
72 05-20-2011 Travis Wood Alex White CIN CLE CIN 50.617 49.383 40.236 CLE 4 5 9
73 07-07-11 Carlos Villanueva Zach McAllister TOR CLE TOR 50.86 49.14 47.66 CLE 4 5 9
74 05-30-2011 Fausto Carmona Jo-Jo Reyes CLE TOR TOR 50.98 49.02 47.345 TOR 1 11 12
75 09-20-2011 Dylan Axelrod Zach McAllister CHA CLE CHA 51.456 48.544 52.02 CHA 5 4 9
76 09-11-11 Ubaldo Jimenez Zach Stewart CLE CHA CHA 51.807 48.193 52.145 CLE 7 3 10
77 04-29-2011 Max Scherzer Jeanmar Gomez DET CLE DET 51.807 48.193 43.601 CLE 5 9 14
78 05-12-11 James Shields Justin Masterson TB CLE TB 51.923 48.077 56.414 TB 7 4 11
79 07-15-2011 Josh Tomlin Jake Arrieta CLE BAL BAL 52.267 47.733 47.6 CLE 6 5 11
80 09-20-2011 Gavin Floyd Fausto Carmona CHA CLE CHA 52.267 47.733 49.93 CLE 3 4 7
81 07-20-2011 Josh Tomlin Nick Blackburn CLE MIN MIN 52.494 47.506 45.011 MIN 5 7 12
82 08-21-2011 Ubaldo Jimenez Rick Porcello CLE DET DET 52.494 47.506 44.725 DET 7 8 15
83 04-19-2011 Jeanmar Gomez Bruce Chen CLE KC KC 52.719 47.281 47.452 KC 4 5 9
84 04-09-11 Justin Masterson Doug Fister CLE SEA SEA 52.941 47.059 42.905 CLE 2 1 3
85 05-11-11 David Price Carlos Carrasco TB CLE TB 52.941 47.059 46.397 TB 8 2 10
86 06-01-11 Josh Tomlin Kyle Drabek CLE TOR TOR 53.162 46.838 48.632 CLE 13 9 22
87 07-19-2011 Justin Masterson Francisco Liriano CLE MIN MIN 53.162 46.838 44.675 MIN 1 2 3
88 05-03-11 Fausto Carmona Tyson Ross CLE OAK OAK 53.271 46.729 44.238 CLE 4 1 5
89 06-03-11 Alexi Ogando Justin Masterson TEX CLE TEX 53.38 46.62 49.463 TEX 11 2 13
90 04-10-11 Josh Tomlin Erik Bedard CLE SEA SEA 53.38 46.62 43.587 CLE 6 4 10
91 05-18-2011 Justin Masterson Jake Peavy CLE CHA CHA 53.38 46.62 56.623 CHA 0 1 1
92 07-27-2011 Ervin Santana David Huff LAA CLE LAA 53.488 46.512 49.266 LAA 3 1 4
93 05-23-2011 Clay Buchholz Justin Masterson BOS CLE BOS 53.596 46.404 52.237 CLE 2 3 5
94 08-16-2011 Ubaldo Jimenez Gavin Floyd CLE CHA CHA 53.596 46.404 49.514 CHA 7 8 15
95 04-03-11 John Danks Justin Masterson CHA CLE CHA 53.917 46.083 52.549 CLE 1 7 8
96 04-23-2011 Fausto Carmona Brian Duensing CLE MIN MIN 53.917 46.083 42.405 MIN 3 10 13
97 07-04-11 A.J. Burnett Josh Tomlin NYA CLE NYA 54.023 45.977 46.382 CLE 3 6 9
98 04-24-2011 Carlos Carrasco Carl Pavano CLE MIN MIN 54.023 45.977 44.855 MIN 3 4 7
99 07-01-11 Justin Masterson Bronson Arroyo CLE CIN CIN 54.442 45.558 50.874 CLE 8 2 10
100 05-19-2011 Fausto Carmona Gavin Floyd CLE CHA CHA 54.442 45.558 45.729 CHA 2 8 10
101 06-21-2011 Jhoulys Chacin Mitch Talbot COL CLE COL 54.442 45.558 42.685 COL 4 3 7
102 06-24-2011 Carlos Carrasco Jonathan Sanchez CLE SF SF 54.442 45.558 44.194 SF 3 4 7
103 07-18-2011 Fausto Carmona Scott Diamond CLE MIN MIN 54.442 45.558 45.481 CLE 6 3 9
104 04-02-11 Edwin Jackson Carlos Carrasco CHA CLE CHA 54.545 45.455 47.961 CHA 8 3 11
105 04-08-11 Carlos Carrasco Jason Vargas CLE SEA SEA 54.545 45.455 38.596 CLE 12 3 15
106 07-25-2011 Dan Haren Fausto Carmona LAA CLE LAA 54.649 45.351 44.798 CLE 2 3 5
107 07-18-2011 David Huff Anthony Swarzak CLE MIN MIN 55.056 44.944 44.73 CLE 5 2 7
108 09-03-11 David Huff Luke Hochevar CLE KC KC 55.556 44.444 49.403 KC 1 5 6
109 04-11-11 Mitch Talbot Tyler Chatwood CLE LAA LAA 55.556 44.444 48.592 CLE 4 0 4
110 08-05-11 Ubaldo Jimenez Derek Holland CLE TEX TEX 55.654 44.346 39.56 TEX 7 8 15
111 09-04-11 Jeanmar Gomez Jeff Francis CLE KC KC 56.236 43.764 45.159 CLE 9 6 15
112 05-24-2011 Josh Beckett Fausto Carmona BOS CLE BOS 56.236 43.764 43.819 BOS 4 2 6
113 06-15-2011 Fausto Carmona Brad Penny CLE DET DET 56.236 43.764 42.873 CLE 6 4 10
114 07-26-2011 Jered Weaver Josh Tomlin LAA CLE LAA 56.236 43.764 43.995 LAA 2 1 3
115 06-05-11 C.J. Wilson Mitch Talbot TEX CLE TEX 56.616 43.384 40.8 TEX 2 0 2
116 06-25-2011 Justin Masterson Matt Cain CLE SF SF 56.616 43.384 44.727 SF 0 1 1
117 08-19-2011 Josh Tomlin Max Scherzer CLE DET DET 56.616 43.384 38.821 DET 1 4 5
118 06-26-2011 Fausto Carmona Madison Bumgarner CLE SF SF 57.173 42.827 35.729 SF 1 3 4
119 09-26-2011 Ubaldo Jimenez Doug Fister CLE DET DET 57.173 42.827 37.233 DET 0 14 14
120 05-29-2011 Justin Masterson Jeremy Hellickson CLE TB TB 57.537 42.463 49.098 TB 0 7 7
121 09-10-11 Fausto Carmona Phil Humber CLE CHA CHA 57.895 42.105 43.834 CHA 3 7 10
122 08-20-2011 David Huff Doug Fister CLE DET DET 57.895 42.105 36.74 DET 1 10 11
123 05-04-11 Josh Tomlin Trevor Cahill CLE OAK OAK 58.42 41.58 35.747 OAK 1 3 4
124 06-28-2011 Josh Tomlin Daniel Hudson CLE ARI ARI 58.592 41.408 39.417 ARI 4 6 10
125 08-17-2011 Fausto Carmona Gavin Floyd CLE CHA CHA 58.592 41.408 45.686 CLE 4 1 5
126 09-08-11 David Huff Gavin Floyd CLE CHA CHA 59.184 40.816 44.645 CHA 1 8 9
127 04-13-2011 Carlos Carrasco Ervin Santana CLE LAA LAA 59.432 40.568 43.149 LAA 3 4 7
128 04-06-11 Daisuke Matsuzaka Mitch Talbot BOS CLE BOS 59.839 40.161 44.413 CLE 4 8 12
129 07-05-11 C.C. Sabathia Carlos Carrasco NYA CLE NYA 59.92 40.08 38.525 NYA 9 2 11
130 04-05-11 Josh Beckett Josh Tomlin BOS CLE BOS 60 40 43.816 CLE 1 3 4
131 05-08-11 Fausto Carmona Dan Haren CLE LAA LAA 60 40 37.764 LAA 5 6 11
132 07-02-11 Fausto Carmona Homer Bailey CLE CIN CIN 60.08 39.92 38.137 CLE 3 1 4
133 06-10-11 Fausto Carmona Ivan Nova CLE NYA NYA 60.08 39.92 35.452 NYA 7 11 18
134 09-13-2011 Justin Masterson Matt Harrison CLE TEX TEX 60.08 39.92 39.497 TEX 4 10 14
135 06-16-2011 Mitch Talbot Max Scherzer CLE DET DET 60.707 39.293 36.966 DET 2 6 8
136 05-27-2011 Josh Tomlin David Price CLE TB TB 60.861 39.139 36.721 TB 0 5 5
137 09-09-11 Jeanmar Gomez Mark Buehrle CLE CHA CHA 61.014 38.986 41.569 CLE 8 4 12
138 05-25-2011 Jon Lester Mitch Talbot BOS CLE BOS 61.165 38.835 42.666 BOS 14 2 16
139 09-07-11 Justin Verlander Justin Masterson DET CLE DET 61.464 38.536 50.378 DET 8 6 14
140 09-27-2011 Jeanmar Gomez Max Scherzer CLE DET DET 61.464 38.536 35.551 DET 6 9 15
141 04-12-11 Fausto Carmona Dan Haren CLE LAA LAA 61.686 38.314 40.533 LAA 0 2 2
142 09-28-2011 Zach McAllister Rick Porcello CLE DET DET 61.686 38.314 36.155 DET 4 5 9
143 08-04-11 Justin Masterson Erik Bedard CLE BOS BOS 61.905 38.095 39.417 CLE 7 3 10
144 05-31-2011 Mitch Talbot Brandon Morrow CLE TOR TOR 62.049 37.951 37.707 CLE 6 3 9
145 08-07-11 Josh Tomlin Colby Lewis CLE TEX TEX 62.121 37.879 39.669 TEX 3 5 8
146 06-12-11 Josh Tomlin Freddy Garcia CLE NYA NYA 62.477 37.523 36.738 NYA 1 9 10
147 06-13-2011 Carlos Carrasco A.J. Burnett CLE NYA NYA 62.477 37.523 40.524 CLE 1 0 1
148 08-03-11 Carlos Carrasco Tim Wakefield CLE BOS BOS 62.756 37.244 40.002 BOS 3 4 7
149 07-03-11 Mitch Talbot Mike Leake CLE CIN CIN 62.825 37.175 35.763 CIN 5 7 12
150 05-05-11 Jeanmar Gomez Brett Anderson CLE OAK OAK 62.825 37.175 29.743 CLE 4 3 7
151 06-14-2011 Justin Masterson Justin Verlander CLE DET DET 63.031 36.969 41.892 DET 0 4 4
152 05-07-11 Alex White Jered Weaver CLE LAA LAA 63.168 36.832 31.944 CLE 4 3 7
153 06-27-2011 Mitch Talbot Ian Kennedy CLE ARI ARI 63.168 36.832 37.798 CLE 5 4 9
154 08-01-11 Josh Tomlin John Lackey CLE BOS BOS 63.37 36.63 35.597 CLE 9 6 15
155 04-07-11 Jon Lester Fausto Carmona BOS CLE BOS 63.37 36.63 41.229 CLE 0 1 1
156 05-28-2011 Carlos Carrasco James Shields CLE TB TB 63.437 36.563 42.216 CLE 7 3 10
157 08-11-11 Justin Verlander Fausto Carmona DET CLE DET 63.57 36.43 39.687 DET 4 3 7
158 09-14-2011 David Huff Derek Holland CLE TEX TEX 64.476 35.524 32.251 TEX 1 9 10
159 06-11-11 Mitch Talbot Bartolo Colon CLE NYA NYA 65.812 34.188 31.734 NYA 0 4 4
160 08-06-11 Fausto Carmona C.J. Wilson CLE TEX TEX 66.887 33.113 28.391 CLE 7 5 12
161 09-15-2011 Fausto Carmona Alexi Ogando CLE TEX TEX 69.231 30.769 33.437 TEX 4 7 11
162 08-02-11 David Huff Josh Beckett CLE BOS BOS 71.347 28.653 28.358 BOS 2 3 5

Comment 10 comments  |  6 recs  | 

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WOw, this is great work. I wonder why Masterson was such a big favorite all the time against Pavano.

by johnf34 on Nov 14, 2011 9:57 AM EST reply actions  

Sure, I can rec this.

by westbrook on Nov 15, 2011 7:28 PM EST reply actions  

Does this mean I should or shouldn’t bet on baseball?

by DixonCayne on Nov 19, 2011 9:17 AM EST reply actions  

I think it means that we should give Xei our money and anticipate 1000% returns.

by jhon on Nov 19, 2011 9:10 PM EST up reply actions  

haha, I got a good laugh. I can probably break even your money, which is about the same you could do making interest in the bank. But betting on baseball is quite the roller coaster ride considering the slim margins there are in each game. A team favored to win a game at 60% is considered a solid favorite, but that is still almost a coin toss.

by Xeifrank on Nov 20, 2011 12:43 AM EST up reply actions  

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