The Non-Presence of Josh Willingham and the Premise of Standing Pat
It's become totally clear that the Indians are out on Josh Willingham (who is, as I'm writing this at 10:30 pm on 12/13, very close to being a Twin) and were never in on Michael Cuddyer. There are still other options floating around but most of the unsigned players carry significant contract demands (Carlos Beltran), significant performance concerns (Casey Kotchman), or significant baggage (Manny Ramirez). The Indians may still be in on a player from the latter two categories but, more and more, there seems to be a chance the Indians will either make a trade or enter the season with the roster more or less as-is and try to make a move if the team contends.
Zack Meisel, Jordan Bastian's second in command, has been making this point in various ways over the last few days:
I'd quibble with the idea that the free agent market is 'overpriced', only in the sense that I don't think it's relatively overpriced to its history. The free agent market is a difficult way to acquire talent on the cheap—you go seriously into the free agent market because you're ready to swing a big money stick and acquire guys that are close to proven commodities. This is, more or less, the approach of the Tigers, the Red Sox, the Yankees, and their ilk. It's certainly not a foolproof strategy but it's even more certainly not a strategy built on financial efficiency. It is, after all, an open bidding market.
Many other teams, like the Indians, try to operate on the periphery of the free agent market. They make moves to fill obvious roster gaps (hello, Jack Hannahan!), they attempt reclamation projects, and they hand out minor league deals with opt outs. When it comes time to seriously enter the market, to try to add a player that will be integral to the team's success, it's not surprising that they find the offerings unappetizing. The mechanics of the big money free agent market work against the philosophy that underpins the actions of all teams on a budget: get something for less than its worth.
One of the big leaps Meisel's making here is this: if the Indians want to contend, the front office feels that simply coming back full strength and evaluating is a legitimate plan. It's clear the Indians want to contend—they signaled that when they dealt for Ubaldo Jimenez and, even if they hadn't, they'd be fools not to try to contend. The division is in disarray and the Indians have a real chance to be the tallest lilliputians of the bunch.
Full credit to Meisel, he made this point before Mark Shapiro took to Twitter last night and reminded me why I like him so much. Shapiro was candid and charming, and answered people who didn't deserve his time. In his conversations, he basically made Meisel's point again. First, regarding the free agent market:
Free Agency is an inefficient market. Better to spend it on your own as they hit their prime
Then, regarding his own team:
Need to be healthy. Team is in its prime.
Pretty much the same story, huh? The Indians may well make a move on the trade market before the season, but my sense after reading through Shapiro's time line is that leadership is comfortable going to Spring Training with this team in its current form. The assertion isn't that the team is a finished work but instead that it has a fighting chance to put itself in a place where the front office can use its financial flexibility to patch the most glaring hole come July. Contrast this to the assertion that the team has to add a piece or else it's a poor imitation of a major league squad that doesn't really have a shot.
I don't know which of those two perspectives I hold but I appreciate Shapiro's candor. There's something buoying about the idea that this might actually be a team that can have a prime, that the majority of the roster is congealed into a living organism, one that might eventually learn to walk, run, and rise to the status of top-level predator, sniffing A.J. Burnett on the crosswind that blows across the Serengeti. I'll end it here, with what was Shapiro's best line of the night:
Does anyone know when the http://Cleveland.com blog comments under Hoynsie's columns replace[d] my Twitter feed?
150 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Of course I am not sure of who this mystery player is. I just think it’s a scary prospect to have weak hitting 1B and 3B, which is looking likely at the moment.
Hannahan won’t be the starter at 3b, if that’s what you’re suggesting. I think Lonnie gets the nod there, with a slash line (in the only month in which he played the majority of time) of: 279/295/465/760.
Obviously, pitch selection is still an issue for the Chiz, but that is something (unless youve got the Guiterrez syndrome) that will improve over time. If you told me his 2012 line would like something like 260/315/760 i’d say we’d take that….and that wouldn’t be far fetched, given his potential.
Course, i’m just spinning moonbeams. I’d really like a trade/FA acq to play 1st and make this a moot point.
"Mixed emotions. Rather see him hit PEDroia [with that pitch]. I don’t care if he is in the dugout"
by Gradysmanldy on Dec 14, 2011 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
what?
"Mixed emotions. Rather see him hit PEDroia [with that pitch]. I don’t care if he is in the dugout"
by Gradysmanldy on Dec 14, 2011 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
Fangraphs has 2012 projections using a model that James created:
that .348 should be a .248 by the way
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7571&position=3B
was about to say, .348/.302 would take a helluva lot of sac flies
by The Grimace on Dec 14, 2011 1:05 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
yeah, that was my thought too…..your franks are up where the beans are supposed to be
"Mixed emotions. Rather see him hit PEDroia [with that pitch]. I don’t care if he is in the dugout"
by Gradysmanldy on Dec 14, 2011 1:25 PM EST up reply actions
Pretty reasonable projection, with a BABIP of 280 that could improve. (he does have a silly gorgeous swing) I think in a full year of playing, as long as his numbers stay around there, he wont be the one dragging the team down. (I fully expect the OF and 1B to be that guy)
"Mixed emotions. Rather see him hit PEDroia [with that pitch]. I don’t care if he is in the dugout"
by Gradysmanldy on Dec 14, 2011 2:27 PM EST up reply actions
I agree, and think we have seen Hannahan’s career year at the plate already. I expect him to be a useful defensive player but not enough that it merits starting except for maybe when we really need the defense behind Masteron or Lowe.
The FO seems very averse to making the same mistakes twice. Maybe Willingham reminds them too much of Dellucci.
Am I the only one who found many of Shapiro’s tweets a little annoying? He comes across as a gib, talking-point mongering smarty pants even more in his tweets than in his interviews (where he comes across as the unholy spawn of Jim Tressel and Mitt Romney).
To put it bluntly, I don’t think Shapiro is a smart as he thinks he is. From my vantage point, he’s a very privileged prep-school kid who got his break because he had a father in the business. Period. Yes, he’s smart. But so are a lot of people. (In fact, to paraphrase William F. Buckley, I might rather see the Indians governed by the first 5 names in the LGT comment roll than by our current FO of Princeton and Georgetown alums.) Honestly, if Shapiro’s name was Mark Smith, he’d probably be managing a car dealership right now or, at best, be an accountant or something somewhere. (And I mean no disrespect to either profession.)
The 2004-2009 window he delivered hinged largely on the Colon trade, which was the result of unusual circumstances that won’t ever be repeated. If he was that great of a GM, he wouldn’t have just given away Phillips, for starters, and he would have been a good enough exec to not let Wedge piss away all but two years of that contention window.
Simply put, I don’t think an Ivy Leaguer talking down to fans in a blue-collar city like Cleveland is really the best image for a struggling team like the Indians. Cleveland fans have limited disposable incomes. Why should they waste them on a losing team with a condescending FO?
I like Acta. I like our players. (Well, except LaPorta.) I want to like Antonetti more than Shapiro. But I’m worried that these top-secret trade plans he’s touting are like Nixon’s secret plan for “peace with honor” in Vietnam. Even the casual fan knows that this team isn’t ready for prime time right now, particularly against Minn, Det, and a rising KC. Yes, if all of those “ifs” so well-outlined in APV’s new post go right for us — and if the other three potential contenders have some bad luck — Cleveland might find its way to the top of the central. But it’s hard to stomach the idea of going into next season counting on bounce-back years from Grady, Choo, Lowe, etc. to carry us into first.
Yes, I know baseball’s economics. Yes, I find the Cle.com people annoying. Yes, I want to scream at them that there’s no chance that a Mark Cuban-type angel owner willing to lose gobs of money on a team will ever come save the Indians.
But, as sad as it is to say, all of this makes me want to throw my logic out the window, put on my early-1990s Cavs stocking cap and my Dallas Cowboys Bernie Kosar jersey, hop in my car, and drive around until I find whatever Hooters or B-dubs the Cle.com crowd drinks at so that I can be surrounded by their righteous indignation and the comforting simplicity of their “Dolunz Cheep” mantra.
All I want is the FO to give me a few reasons not to do that. I loved the Lowe trade. Hell, I’d even like to see Jose Lopez in an Indians uniform, but as a Blake-style utility guy, not as our RH solution. I think most fans expect more, and I understand that. I do, too.
I can tell you this: Shapiro’s comments sure as hell aren’t increasing my love for the organization, and I suspect that’s true for some other fans, too. I know that Shapiro can’t really openly trash baseball’s competitive balance, etc. But can’t he at least say something more substantive than hiding behind B-school, Moneyball-style cliches?
by J83 on Dec 14, 2011 12:10 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
I don’t read him the way you do. He spent a couple of hours last night answering all kinds of questions, and not condescending nearly as far as he could have considering the quality of many. His answers are short, and thus might read glib, but he’s working within 140 characters. Lately, I consistently find Shapiro pretty candid, considerably more candid than he was as a GM and more candid than Antonetti is now.
As for the privilege discussion, that’s a can of worms as well as the story of this country. No one ascends to anywhere solely on merit, and there aren’t many good places for discussions of America, privilege, status, race, and education to go. I don’t find Shapiro to be particularly self-inflating, although I do understand why people might find him irritating—this is a very hard nation to live in if you want to try to reconcile these relationships or if you perceive yourself as on the outside of the system, or if you have a strong sense of social justice. Yes he comes from a life of remarkable privilege, no question. So do most, if not all, LGT commentators, especially when considering a global context.
I find what you wrote genuinely compelling, and I think you recognize the conflicting nature of it. It’s something I struggle with as well; I want to love sports but, intellectually, I know that doesn’t make sense. I want to hate Shapiro for failing to deliver the championship I want but, intellectually, I know that doesn’t make sense. I want to romanticize this idea of a common fan, but, intellectually, I know I couldn’t spend much time in that Hooters before people would loathe me as much or more than they loathe Shapiro.
by afh4 on Dec 14, 2011 12:46 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I’m a little worried about the notion that fans don’t deserve Shapiro’s time. I understand that there is a legitimate argument that sports teams are aloof from their fan base, but considering that the Prog was paid for in part by tax dollars, we’re all paying customers who aren’t yet satisfied with our product, etc. But I think it’s worse that he’s willing to take shots at cle.commers. Again, maybe they’re keyboard warriors, but I betcha a good portion spend money at the field. To insult them indicates an unbelievably level of oblivion, contempt, arrogance. Management should (and usually does) understand it needs to absorb criticism, not dish it back out to those who keep the lights on.
I’m afraid of a midseason pickup, because I’m struggling to understand what trade chips we have left. We leaned hard on our pipeline last year. I get that Willingham was probably one year too pricey, but I think I’m at the point where I’m just hoping like crazy Chisenhall breaks out if we stand a chance at a legitimate offense.
I think the cle.com crowd is incredibly small and not worth anyone’s time. The ‘fans’, as in the paying public, is not spending much time engaging in the cle.com discussion, I’d wager.
As for whether fans do or don’t deserve his time, my point is simply that he’s the only team president i know of who’s engaging in twitter conversations with a cross-section of his fanbase. Whether he, philosophically, is doing something special by doing that isn’t as important to me as the fact that it appears to be special in the broader context of sports.
Geez, are you gonna take up Chuck’s phony blue-collar mantle now? Do you feel that, ya know, ya kinda hafta?
I think, as Andrew suggests, that Shapiro does not conflate cleveland.com commenters with the fanbase or any significant portion of it. I think it’s a mistake for you to conflate the two, and a further mistake for you to assume that Shapiro does.
I bet they don’t spend crap, either.
by Jay on Dec 14, 2011 2:55 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
“Betcha” is off limits for you? Odd.
I think it’s a pretty tough sell to convince anyone that a Tribe exec mocking his detractors, even if you’re confident they aren’t buying tickets or merchandise (?? also an odd assumption), is a good move.
Eh, I just wouldn’t put myself in a position where I’m ragging on people who “call” themselves Indians fans.
I love this site, the mods, and each and every commentator platanically, but wouldn’t it be kind of bizarro hilarious if Cle.com were consistently lobbing grenades at LGT’ers?
Doesn’t that sort of happen every 10 months when Jay decides he’s going to go poke some bear?
I think you make a good point, but I also think the cleveland.com crowd is so far gone that it’s not applicable here. Shapiro didn’t make any kind of judgment on the cle.com comments, he just said his stream suddenly looks just like them. That we think it’s sort of funny, or inappropriate ragging, is a reflection of how we feel about that commenter group, not of anything Shapiro actually said.
Yeah, seriously, who cares? It’s neither funny nor unfunny. Morons making fun of smart people, not exactly a dog-bites-man story, now, is it.
No, other people have called us smart, too.
Of course, humble Chuck would never presume his own expertise about anything.
by Jay on Dec 15, 2011 12:50 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
And other people have called you dumb too. You only choose to emphasize the one evaluation.
Our best players wear suits.
Why are you even arguing such a ridiculous point?
The cleveland.com comment section is known for being full of idiots. It is the only thing that it is known for.
It’s hardly rediculous – or off topic for that matter. There’s all kinds of intelligence and it’s the rare person who possesses an all-encompassing intelligence. And here’s the point: Shapiro maybe a straight A student at one of the best business school in all of America. But he’s no judge of young baseball players. That’s the hole in his baseball GM skill set and it’s a fatal one.
Our best players wear suits.
by mauichuck on Dec 15, 2011 9:54 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Depends what you mean by “young.”
Shapiro’s gifts — whatever label you want to put on them — very obviously extend well beyond book learnin’.
My coverage of Shapiro’s failings at talent evaluation has been pretty thorough. You’re just beating one of your three dead horses … to death … again … and again … and again …
Yet every time we talk about the Indians lack of talent at 1B or RH hitting the one elephant in the room is Shapiro’s inability to acquire that talent in the draft – the most important avenue of player acquisition for the Indians
Our best players wear suits.
I must add …
If you have such a dim view of the company here, you really should leave. Probably should have a long time ago.
by Jay on Dec 15, 2011 12:35 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Anyone who would be dumb enough to take personal insult to Shapiro’s remarks will be the first one back on the bandwagon when the team’s winning.
Thus, I think Shapiro makes these measured remarks so as to not say “HEY YOU GUYZ ARE IDIOTS” but “I disagree with your point of view” and at the same time, earning points with people like me.
You are reading my signature.
Yeah, I know you’re right. Many of his comments were good, and I know twitter is a terrible communications vehicle. But the “inefficient market” and Hoynsie comments you quoted rubbed me the wrong way (albeit for different reasons), and the strained use of “brother” in some of his other comments, once again, reminded me of Romey’s “who let the dogs out” moment, or Sargent Shriver famous “courvoisier” order in a Youngstown bar in 1972. That weird mix of over-intellectualizing and informality is just, well, kind of awful for someone who’s supposed to be a big part of the team’s PR apparatus.
I know and agree that most of us are very fortunate, particularly relative to most in the US and world, and I know I wouldn’t care about Shapiro’s background if the team had won in 2007. But sitting here in 2011, reading his tweets about why we should more-or-less be happy with the same roster that was below-.500 last year (if we view Lowe as a Carrasco replacement), it’s nauseating and frustrating.
Good food for thought. I, without question, tend to go easy on Shapiro because of where I was educated and how I’ve spent a lot of my professional life. I don’t have much a radar for the over-intellectualizing—the term “inefficient market” is something I hear all the time, from work colleagues, friends, etc.
The sort of ‘code-switching’ he engages is interesting as well, and maybe most notable for his age. It’s not at all odd to see that kind of thing from all sorts of bloggers (notable examples are the Deadspin crowd, Spencer Hall)—those writers constantly switch between the kinds of codes that Shapiro does, depending on their forum, the topic, etc. That Shapiro does it sits differently though, as you point out. I can’t parse if that’s his age, his position, or what.
Oh, I’m a complete over-educated nerd with advanced degrees from a top institution. So I’m not trying go all anti-intellectual. Nor do I object to the academic terms themselves. But certain ones have become overused, even if Shapiro (usually) deploys them correctly. (I guess from Shapiro they read more like Malcolm Gladwell or the Freakonomics guys, none of whom I have much respect for, and my hatred of the whole Levitt, Slate.com, tnr.com “everything you thought you know is the opposite” pseudo-intellectual type of analysis knows no bounds.)
To me, the bottom line is that if Shapiro really took all that B-school crap seriously, he’d either A.) not hide behind jargon to make excuses for losing, since in business results are all that matter, or B.) be more honest about how small market teams are screwed by MLB (the way the Rays owner did recently, for example).
I guess I’m just not sure how much of what he says is just his poor attempt at PR and how much of it he actually believes. Either way, selectively deploying the jargon against understandably disgruntled fans is probably not the best way to go when many of those fans likely read it as poor spin-doctoring.
“be more honest about how small market teams are screwed by MLB”
Can’t do it. It sounds like whining and in a media market where the members outside of Pluto or The Bull don’t get it and haven’t written/spoken it, it would be remarkably self-defeating…
Would love to be wrong. According to my wife, it would only be the 234th time today.
by stuart dean on Dec 14, 2011 9:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
In 2004, the Indians also finished 80-82; here’s what Shapiro did that offseason:
There were 2 spots in the order that performed below league average, SS and RF; he let 37-year old Omar walk, replacing him with Jhonny, and shuffled Blake to RF, putting Jody Gerut on the bench. The new 3B was Aaron Boone, who they signed in June, 2004 to a 2 plus option year deal while he was still rehabbing from injury. Matt Lawton, with a year to go on his 4/$27m deal, was dealt for Arthur Rhodes (who was pretty good for the four months he stayed healthy). Grady moved into CF and Coco Crisp replaced Lawton in left. They signed Kevin Millwood to a 1/7m deal, but otherwise left the rotation alone; Scott Elarton got 31 starts in ’05, none of which I can visualize.
The FO behaved as if they had a contending team in the works, and they were right. Boone and Black lagged below league averages, but Hafner (9.4 RC/9), Peralta (6.7) and Victor (6.5) carried the club. Every one of the 5-man rotation got at least 30 starts and Wickman stayed healthy all year.
It seems like the FO thinks they have the makings of contention again—I haven’t read Shapiro’s tweets—despite there being more question marks with this team. I wonder if the FO is holding back this offseason in part to see which of the holes don’t mend—LaPorta? Sizemore? Brantley? Fausto? Maybe the minimal resources will be more effectively spent after that problems become obvious rather than guessing beforehand.
by YoDaddyWags on Dec 14, 2011 2:18 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
that is bizarrely the second time in two days that SS courvoisier comment has entered my life, in entirely different contexts. weird.
I like ex-Phillies prospects.
by Gradyforpresident on Dec 14, 2011 3:32 PM EST up reply actions
If we want to be as empirical as possible about this — and it’s something that’s hard to quantify — there are a few solid facts, including that social mobility has gone down in the U.S. and we’re now behind nearly every major western democracy (including, sadly, the once class-bound UK, according to some studies).
As far as more debated things where research is still evolving (and often just goes back-and-forth), something like IQ (if you even believe it’s a good metric — and there’s good reason to believe it isn’t) can explain a fair amount of the variance in different outcomes, but it doesn’t explain a whole lot of the variance in income after controlling for other factors like parent’s income, etc.
Intelligence, hard work, etc., all play a part in things, but privilege and plain old luck play too large a role, I think, for anyone who’d like to view outcomes as strictly merit-based. I guess in the context of this discussion, it means that we shouldn’t be too deferential too Shapiro just because he’s the GM and we’re not, which was sort of the point I was driving at in the middle of my too-long, too-emotional rant.
I’m sorry, you’ll have to define “social mobility.”
In my own experience, not tolerating failure also plays a big part. The about of success I have in a given pursuit is inversely related to the extent of failure I’m willing to tolerate.
Sorry about that. I should have specified that I was talking about income mobility. They’re often used interchangeably because income is easiest to quantify, but it’s not the same thing as a broader conception of social mobility and what people might mean by the term in everyday usage.
If you’re interested in a good study by mostly very well-respected (and politically moderate) scholars, check out Pew’s Income Mobility Project. It’s not perfect, but it’s pretty solid, and the second study (I think) in the series is nothing but international comparisons.
Here’s what I know as fact: I went to medical school with a guy who was in an orphanage for the vast majority of his childhood. He’s now one of the most respected docs in his field. He did it all – that would be from the day he started college until he finished his fellowship – by dint of his own intrinsic skills.
But then again, if Shapiro wasn’t Ron Shapiro’s little boy Markie he wouldn’t be where he is today.
Our best players wear suits.
This is such foolishness. Thousands of people come from backgrounds as privileged as Shapiro’s if not moreso. Hardly any of them are a GM by age 35 and a club president by age 45. These are extraordinarily competitive positions.
I mean, seriously, are we supposed to believe that John Hart and Larry Dolan were so desperate to impress an agent that they had to make his son the GM? Seriously, that’s your latest inane concept for hating on Shapiro?
And also … Executive of the Year. Twice. That award may not be justified in your mind, but it was justified in the eyes of his peers. So his peers felt that he wasn’t just there because of his background.
Of course, you have anointed yourself the expert on these things, so I’m sure you know better than they do.
by Jay on Dec 15, 2011 12:59 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Your usual problem staying on topic.
We are not discussing whether he’s a great GM. We are discussing whether he won his position primarily through privileged access or based on merit.
The fact that his peers see him as a superlative GM suggest that merit played a strong role in his hiring. Also, common sense suggests that.
The image of a spoiled, know-nothing rich kid sitting in the GM’s office is belied by the fact that his peers considered him the best at his job.
by Jay on Dec 15, 2011 12:40 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I fail to see how that’s off topic. You say that his awards show that he’s a great GM. I give you an example of how the baseball awards process is not a reliable indication of superior performance. So tell me again, how is this any less relavent than siting Shapiro’s awards?
Our best players wear suits.
The award shows that his peers feel, at bare minimum, that he isn’t some clueless beneficiary of nepotism.
This is not to say that his performance has been superior.
Again, it’s amazing that you have anointed yourself the expert on who’s a good GM, that you think you know more than his peers.
by Jay on Dec 16, 2011 12:12 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Here’s my source of expertise:
2009 65 and 97
2010 69 and 93
This just ain’t cuttin’ it. He maybe a better than average GM, but if we’re ever gonna win a WS we need someone better.
There smacked that dead horse one more time.
Our best players wear suits.
Hank Peters, President 1987-1992
1987: 61-101
1988: 78-84
1989: 73-89
1990: 77-85
1991: 57-105
1992: 76-86
World Series appearances: 0
Playoff appearances: 0
Winning Seasons: 0
is the Peters v. Shapiro debate becoming a yearly thing? And here should be chuck talking about the 70’s Orioles and the drafting of Thome & Ramirez
by The Grimace on Dec 16, 2011 11:40 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
There’s a difference between saying he wouldn’t be a GM if not for his family background and saying that’s the ONLY reason he got someplace. Opportunity is the prerequisite for demonstrating one’s ability, and it’s clear his father’s connections got him a foot in the door. I can’t speak for anyone else, but I’m not arguing that Shapiro is a dunce or a downright terrible GM. (In fact, I think he’s above average.)
Rather, my original point was that the way he comes across in man of his comments is a bit smug, and it’s generally not a great idea for a rich guy with lots of undeserved privilege and a job most people would kill for to make fun of a portion of his customers on twitter. That’s all.
I’m not defending the totally irrational, frothing-at-the-mouth cle.com crowd, either, but it’s still not good for the public face of the team to call them out. Not to mention that there are a lot of people somewhere between the cle.com-ers and the LGT-ers who are frustrated that 7-million-a-year bats are now out of the team’s price range and should have received more than just “market inefficiencies” talk from Shapiro as consolation.
Finally, I agree with Chuck that the executive of the year award is totally worthless. CEO pay is more-or-less set by one’s peers, and we’ve seen how that works out. Not to mention that everyone from Kenneth Lay to Alan Greenspan to Larry Summers have received similar accolades in their own fields.
So Shapiro’s performance is now equated to Ken Lay?
Seriously? He won an award but then his took the whole company down?
I think he’s simply chipping away at the use of “getting a peer given award” as a strong measurable support of a person’s abilities, not that he is drawing a direct correlation between the individual in the example and Shapiro.
Exactly. I said that I thought Shapiro was a good GM overall. So I’m not trying to compare him to Ken Lay by any stretch, just noting that peer awards or “(blank) of the year” awards are often not great measures of actual performance.
Once again:
We are not discussing whether he’s a great GM. We are discussing whether he won his position primarily through privileged access or based on merit.
My point is that “primarily” this or that is a moot point if access if the prerequisite for demonstrating merit. After all, we’ll never know who didn’t get that initial low-level job that Shapiro got, will we?
I’m presuming that he’s intelligent and hard working. But so are lots of people. You seem to be reading my comments all kinds of strange ways and assume I’m saying things I’m not. All I said was that I think he’s too smart for his own good (or thinks he is) if he believes it’s a great idea to be dismissive of fans on his twitter account. I mean, if he doesn’t like to interact with fans in a positive way, why start this whole social media initiative anyhow?
In my experience, this is not an argument worth having.
by afh4 on Dec 15, 2011 9:02 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
Agreed. I wasn’t trying to open this can of worms. It happens to fall broadly under the umbrella of stuff I’ve studied, but it’s only really worth having this type of discussion in a serious, empirically driven way — not casually.
And it doesn’t have much of a place in a sports discussion. Once again, my only point was that I didn’t like Shapiro taking pot shots at his customers and what I read (even though I now recognize others didn’t) as his general air of smugness and self-congratulation, which I was just saying is probably not wholly deserved. We can all agree to disagree on that point, I think, and hopefully move on to points of agreement — like hatred of Derek Jeter.
Yes. Perhaps unfortunately, depending on how the job market shapes up for me soon. I’ve been really lucky to land lots of nice competitive fellowships and funding thus, and consider myself a very fortunate person. But I can’t tell you how much I’ve had to think about luck lately hearing my slightly older peers inside stories of job search committees, etc. and all of the unpredictably, inexplicable things that lead to who gets the final offer.
I have a close friend on the academic job market right now. Seems harrowing. What’s your field?
by afh4 on Dec 15, 2011 9:25 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
I’m a bit paranoid about having my real-world, professional identity linked to social media stuff, considering that I’ll be on the job market. (Yeah, I know, that’s very paranoid — talk about learning from Nixon.)
So I’ll just say I’m getting a joint degree that falls broadly within the social sciences, and that I work on modern U.S. policy and politics, generally, and economic issues, more specifically.
Nice try, Dr. Tobin, but we’re on to you—all that Johnson and Kennedy stuff is a total giveaway. Nice job faking your own death, by the way. And good luck in your upcoming White House gig.
by YoDaddyWags on Dec 15, 2011 11:41 AM EST up reply actions
I have been on two search committees the past three years (after having spent three years on the job market)…there is a lot of luck. But that shouldn’t get you discouraged, it should just prevent you from getting discouraged when jobs you would like don’t come through.
Thanks for the kind, encouraging words. I’m trying my best to not get too discouraged, and I know I’m very lucky to be leaving a top institution with a good CV.
My plan is just to keep working my ass off, apply and hustle as much as possible when I’m on the market, and then pray that I don’t soon find myself filling out law school applications on my break at Taco Bell.
Frankly, it doesn’t seem to have much to do with your studies, but rather with a sense of guilt over your own privileged background or position. But guilt is not much of a basis for analysis — or even for making moral judgments.
Again, competition for these positions is extraordinarily fierce. We have seen, just in the past few years, the last vestiges of the “old baseball guy” nepotism fading out of the running. (Ironically, Chuck would have nicer things to say about that cohort, which is clearly more guilty of this type of complaint, because he morally favors old, crusty guys who aren’t good at math.)
So it’s not really appropriate to look at whole-population correlation of socio-economic status with socio-economic background, IQ, height, race or anything else. For one thing, the sample is far too small to draw meaningful conclusions. But the great point is that it is so vastly improbable for any one child to achieve one of these positions eventually that it is hard to draw any conclusion about it, except that a large number of things must all be working in that child’s favor.
Think about it: It’s easier to end up a U.S. Senator than a major league GM. And it shows! And a lot easier to end up in whatever job you’re seeking, however competitive it may seem from your present perspective.
It is reasonable to assume, given the scarcity of the job, that a high degree of meritocracy is involved. Even the guys we deride as big dummies, the Bavasis and Wades, are probably possessed of well above average intellect, even as their grasp of the game may have one or more significant and ultimately fatal flaws. (Indeed, many of the intellects in this very discussion probably could be described in similar terms.)
As a final but significant note, the Cleveland Indians organization in particular is seen across the industry not only as a model front office, but also as an incubator of outstanding executive talent. It has produced executives in a dozen different front offices over the past 20 years.
I ask you, is it reasonable to assume that a man produced by the first 10 years of that organization, and who rose to run that organization over the latter 10 years of it, is some kind of a mediocrity?
Or is it reasonable to assume that a couple of guys on this forum have let their prejudices get the better of them?
Okay. I don’t know what to make of your ad hominem line of argument here. Did you get a nuanced psychological reading of me and other commenters merely from reading a few posts of ours? Because I don’t know how else you’d understand my “guilt.” Honestly, I’m not trying to be a jerk, but as a moderator, shouldn’t you try to calm things down rather than writing things like that? Because the rest of your comment has some good points.
I agree with this:
But the great point is that it is so vastly improbable for any one child to achieve one of these positions eventually that it is hard to draw any conclusion about it, except that a large number of things must all be working in that child’s favor.
But it seems to contradict this:
It is reasonable to assume, given the scarcity of the job, that a high degree of meritocracy is involved.
Obviously, it’s an ecological fallacy to generalize from population to individual, particularly without knowing anything about the individual. Anonymous GM may have pulled him or herself up by his/her bootstraps and gotten everything totally based on merit. I was just saying that — based on what we know about Shapiro (his elite schooling, father in the industry, etc.) — many doors were opened for him that would have been closed for others. Is that such a radical idea? Because I do think it’s one that can be proven empirically. (Take a look at some of Deva Pager’s audit experiments of job seekers if you don’t believe me.)
Maybe part of the problem is that we might not be using “merit” the same way. I’m not saying Shapiro is a moron or can’t do the job. I never have. But I also don’t think that means that he would have ended up where he is had he come from a more modest background or that there aren’t others out there who are just as smart or hardworking as him who didn’t get the same opportunities. In fact, I’m sure some of them might be Indians fans.
Going back to the original point about his twitter comments, I think that it is easy for someone like Shapiro to sit in his position and take shots at stupid twitter commenters — but that doesn’t mean he should.
My point in bringing his background into this is that he might be a very smart person and a very hardworking person (and I never called him mediocre), but he’s also a very luck and, yes, privileged person. By definition, most of the people he was being dismissive of are far less privileged. And they’re also the customers for his business. So, yeah, that makes those particular comments not-so-smart of him, in my opinion.
Wanted to ask you this, how much do you take into consideration that Shapiro’s tweets may just suffer from being over scruitinized? In a sense, are we holding him up to some standard that is more ideal than realistic?
I mean look at the owner of the Cavs, he can’t go two months without some sort of negatively received tweet comment spouted off in a moment of emotional discontent.
Shapiro is human, like the rest of us, just that he has many many more eyes on his comments than either you or I. Not to mean that your comments aren’t falling into the healthy category of constructive criticism, though.
Your completely right. It was more the fact that he went out of his way to make the “Hoynsie” comment that annoyed me than anything else, and my initial rant was written with that emotion.
Mainly, I just though the smugness that some of his tweets conveyed were not-so-great PR for a public face of the organization, and I guess I also took it as a sign that Shapiro thinks he’s too smart to interact with “average” fans (even though the new media initiative is something he could obviously squelch if he doesn’t like it).
In retrospect, I would not have even gone down that path of talking about his background. But a little more humility on his part would go a long way in my eyes, and it probably wouldn’t have even crossed my mind.
I do think it’s funny, though, that if we were having the same conversation about Nicholas Cage, Gyweneth Paltrow, the Kennedy kids, the Bush kids, etc., there’d probably have been a lot less heat in this discussion.
To paraphrase Jay’s reply to Chuck above, I don’t think Shapiro is a “spoiled, know-nothing rich kid,” but I do think he’s a privileged, really smart rich guy who should no better than to risk alienating fans by insulting them or by dismissing their frustration over not winning a championship in their lifetimes as insufficient knowledge of business theory.
I think you have to be wary of drawing the parallel with Dan Gilbert. That’s Dan Gilbert’s public persona. He says crazy things. Then again, he doesn’t directly control the product on the court. I think fans are willing to let owners be a little crazy because they know most owners don’t play a large role in the actual team. GMs, on the other hand, are held to a more professional standard. I’m sure it is unrealistic to expect Shapiro to never tweet anything that could be taken the wrong way, but at the same time, that’s the job he gets paid to do.
"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway
by notthatnoise on Dec 18, 2011 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
I’m not sure GM’s are held to a more professional standard than the business man that tend to own the teams. Outside of Cleveland Dan Gilbert is a regular target to be chastised at any moment he tweets something that could be construed as “whiny, vindictive, etc.” And it makes the dumb national media.
I would also challenge you that the owner doesn’t directly control the product on the court (or field) any more than any other member of the organization. He sets the financial constraints/limits and also decides when to move beyond those limits in special occasions or not. This directly influences the work of the front office.
I don’t disagree with you, but the issue at hand was how this affects fans in our market. Most Cleveland fans like Dan Gilbert, even if they are embarrassed of him every now and then. The fact that he gets hammered nationally only enforces an “us vs. them” attitude.
Baseball is the only sport where the owner has a large impact on the product. Dan Gilbert isn’t allowed to spend what he wants on the Cavs, neither is Randy Lerner allowed to do so with the Browns. In the other major sports, there are surprisingly few owners who can’t afford to spend to the cap. I realize that in baseball that is drastically different, so maybe the Dolan’s would be held to a higher standard, but as it stands I’m pretty sure fans expect Chris Grant to act more professionally than Dan Gilbert.
"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway
by notthatnoise on Dec 19, 2011 4:27 AM EST up reply actions
Well, I’d say it doesn’t need to be an either/or situation. Fans would expect both Chris Grant and Dan Gilbert to act professional, (though as I write this I am reminded of the fans that call out for their owners/GMs to emulate their own emotions about the team, and said fans will scream bloody murder if they believe that the owner/GM is acting like he doesn’t care or accepts the poor play of the team, so who knows what the fans expect).
The upside is that Gilbert shows passion, which creates a connection with fans. Dispassionate, detached owners who you only glimpse from a luxury box during gametime don’t generate much publicity for the product.
The downside is that Gilbert really needs a filter that doesn’t muffle his passion — just his knee-jerk stupidity, and a subscription to MyFonts.com
You make a bunch of good points here, so I’ll try to respond in kind.
First, let me be clear that I only addressed your perspective because you yourself brought up your educational background and some of what you have studied. In Chuck’s case, I have read literally thousands of his comments in which he wears his working-class background as a badge of honor, in the mistaken belief that this gives him the moral high ground in any argument.
You have claimed not to be going “anti-intellectual” on Shapiro, but I would submit to you that his principal sin in this matter is that he is highly intelligent, well educated, professionally accomplished, and not adequately apologetic about those attributes. He isn’t going after people for being dumb or ignorant, he’s just not embarrassed to be smart or knowledgeable in his own line of work. And why should he be?
And the basis for seeing this as a sin — the bogus charge of “smugness” simply for being what he is, unpresumptuously and unapologetically — is basically anti-intellectual.
I’ve known Chuck for a few years now, and it is clear that he sees his education, professional achievements and abandonment of working-class Cleveland for Hawaii as some kind of a moral failing; that’s what his upbringing and personal code continue to bark at him through the decades. I don’t know you at all, and I apologize if I’ve made any great leaps in assuming your point of view.
It is true that my role as moderator is partly to keep arguments from getting personal, but again, I don’t think I’m the one who brought personal perspective into the discussion. I’m just calling BS on what I see as a BS argument, an area where I think I’ve led by example for six years. Having said that, I think your feedback on this is worth giving some more thought, and I will do that.
More below.
Well, just to be clear, I didn’t bring up that I study this stuff as a “you should listen to me”-type comment. Rather, mentioned it in a comment that was an apologetic agreement with someone else’s point that this was getting way out of hand. It was an aside meant to say “Yeah, of all people I should know it’s really dumb for me to have brought this up casually in this context.” I didn’t mean for it to come across any other way. (But to be lightly snarky, if you’re arguing that Shapiro doesn’t need to apologize for knowing a lot about baseball management, I shouldn’t apologize for knowing my field, right?)
Overall, though, I don’t really care about how my education plays into this and don’t expect you to do so, either. My larger points about Shaprio’s tweets have nothing to do with that.
I also said specifically that I’m not trying to be anti-intellectual as some sort of common-man badge of honor or whatever. But it is true that the more educated I become, the more nauseating I find it when smart people go out of their way to trash people they perceive to be less-intelligent than them. And — in my opinion, at least — it’s hard to read something like the Hoynsie tweet any other way. That’s not because I think nerds need to apologize, it’s because I think if you’re smart you don’t need to elevate yourself by trashing others. I found it distasteful that he insulted a segment of Indians fans (no matter how annoying you or I or anyone else might find them). It just seemed cheap, petty, arrogant, and below someone in his position.
I suspect that all most average fans know is that someone like Willingham would have made the team better. Maybe Shapiro thinks they should understand more. That’s fine. But, as I mentioned earlier, I think there were better ways for Shapiro to respond (or even to not engage in the discussion at all). There’s a huge middle ground between bowing down to stupid commenters because they’re potential customers and mocking them. That’s all. He could’ve used it as a “teachable moment,” if you will, not a mockable one.
One last point would be that I think we just fundamentally don’t agree on how meritocratic the market or the country is. My general viewpoint would be that in order for me to believe that people rise to positions (even high ones) mostly on merit, I would have to believe that there were almost no black people worthy of being managers, GMs, CEOs, professors, etc. for decades and decades. I’d also have to believe that the reason that only about 7% percent of kids who come from families in the lowest income quintile reach the top income quintile (while more than 37% of kids from the top stay there) is that the kids of poor people are inherently inferior. I don’t believe either of those things, and I think I have good reason for not believing them.
That being said, I’ll reiterate that I don’t think Shapiro is dumb, or that I’m smarter than him or whatever. (I’m reminded of John Lennon responding to the Jesus comment controversy: “I wasn’t knocking it or putting it down… I’m not saying that we’re better or greater, or comparing us with Jesus Christ as a person or God as a thing or whatever it is. I just said what I said and it was wrong. Or it was taken wrong. And now it’s all this.”)
I get where you’re coming from, Jay, and I’ve learned a lot of great stuff about baseball from LGT, in general, and your posts, in particular. But this might be one of those things that’s too close to personal experience and politics for even well-meaning people to agree on, and it’s obviously too far beyond a baseball comment to keep it going.
Are those income mobility numbers right? Because I’m actually kind of shocked by that 7%, shocked by how high it is. In the theoretically perfect meritocracy it would only be 20% (ignoring complicated impacts of nutrition, early eduction and so on that would likely reduce it).
I wouldn’t have guessed it would have been so high (nor the 37% so ‘low’). Not that it’s anywhere close to ideal, but I find that fairly encouraging.
by InfiniteMonkeyTypists on Dec 16, 2011 8:04 AM EST up reply actions
I don’t want to continue talking about this, since it’s obviously not baseball related. But I’ll just say that the bi-partisan Pew reports I was citing for those numbers are a fairly conservative estimate that I picked in order to give the most modest numbers. There are other studies that calculate estimates that look worse. Many studies don’t print mobility tables, but instead calculate intergenerational elasticities between parents’ and childrens’ incomes. I would argue that the most salient point is that international studies (see the second Pew study) show that the U.S. has either the lowest or second-lowest level of mobility among all western democracies.
Scarcity does not necessarily equate with needing a “high degree of meritocracy involvement”. More importantly, scarcity does not necessarily equate to value of the position or desirability of that position.
It seems that in your proposal that it is easier to become a U.S. Sentor than a MLB GM, you consider the whole of the population. I would argue that the position of GM/Team President of a MLB organization, though a dream job to any of us posting on this site, is not as a desirable position when compared to other fields where scarcity is not as limiting yet may provide better financial return such as being a CEO of a Fortune 500 company ( i mean there’s 500 hundred of them right? and they average around $11 million a year or so).
The point is not to dicredit that a person rising to the level of MLB GM is without merit, but that scarcity does not particularly correlate with the position requiring more merit vs. priveleage/oppurtunity. A better argument I would propose would be that the people with more merit will rise to the more desirable jobs, beyond that of MLB GM, thus though the MLB GM is more scarce than a F-500 company CEO, it is not a more desirable position.
None of this particularly addresses J83’s point (and as I write this I see he has responded to your post as well) regarding Shapiro’s particular path.
I would say that precisely the point is that (increasingly) GM positions go to people who might otherwise have been a Fortune 500 CEO (eventually). This is evidence of the high desirability of the position. Essentially, a large number of high-performing individuals have a passion for baseball that supersedes their desire for purely material benefit.
An interesting thing that is going on right now in Cleveland, for those not residing here, is that the town’s other major sports team, the Browns, just had their team president Mike Holmgren give a similar yet more extreme news breifing and has become a huge target (at least within the media venues) because of this derision towards segments of the fanbase/media that have not been supportive of the team more recently.
There was something along the lines of “you are either with us or against us” in it. In any case, Shapiro and the Indians are pretty safe from any media backlash for the time being, the Browns are doing a good job of taking on the brunt of that at the moment.
So they’re good for something after all?
I like ex-Phillies prospects.
by Gradyforpresident on Dec 15, 2011 5:50 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed.
"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway
by notthatnoise on Dec 18, 2011 11:49 AM EST up reply actions
I am very hesitant to enter anywhere near this conversation, but I can’t let this example slide. We get support from people outside our family. Just because he didn’t have a family, doesn’t mean he did it “of his own intrinsic skills.” Certainly he has a lot of skills, but I’m guessing a few folks at the orphanage, a few teachers, and probably a few others provided him with critical support along the way…support which if he hadn’t gotten, we wouldn’t be talking about him today.
by APV on Dec 16, 2011 9:05 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
No, if his name was Mark Smith he would be my uncle.
Also, I have to worry about KC (a year behind us in the cycle) and MIN (99 losses)?
This team has holes, but we aren’t up against the 27 JAs
What if...
by Danieldelamaiz on Dec 14, 2011 3:20 PM EST up reply actions
And if his name was Mark E. Smith, his tweets might be downright mystifying and acerbic, potentially alienating an entire generation of Tribe fans.
by DocNo on Dec 14, 2011 5:52 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I don’t think Shapiro’s entirely comfortable as a communicator or a chief, although I think he has gotten much better over time. He’s even less natural at it than Hart, who was at first a stiff public fellow in his own right. Hart improved to the point of being a bone fide Talking Head. Hart didn’t have Ivy League credentials, but he seemed much less down-to-earth to me. Definitely the kind of guy who fancies himself a man of good taste. Which is probably most GMs. I’ve never perceived Shapiro as one who is much concerned with Taste.
As always, I appreciate that Shapiro is ever-striving to improve his own game. I view him as someone who is gritty and a little awkward. an actual Clevelander at this point. The obvious difference might be that he doesn’t seem to care about other sports much.
The typical Clevelander is the same guy everywhere else: shops at Kohls, wears pleated pants, and eats B-dubs like you say… but when he does, he isn’t especially righteous about it. He comes and goes with one or two friends and nervously checks his blackberry half the time. This guy could easily be a younger Shapiro.
I wasn’t aware that there was anything secret about peace with honor. Nixon campaigned on ending the war, and later he fulfilled his promise.
And here I thought Nixon campaigned on “Low OPS With Honor, and a Lot of Caught Stealing.” Which promises he did indeed fulfill.

by YoDaddyWags on Dec 14, 2011 11:32 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Sorry. I wasn’t trying to start a political discussion or provoke any one group of people, as I hope my varied political references indicated. I’ll give you a little background on this, simply because it doesn’t really make anyone look very good. Here is a little bit on the so-called “secret plan.” In reality, Nixon didn’t have a plan, but there’s quite a bit of evidence that he illegally tried to stall LBJ’s peace talks in 1968, and that LBJ knew about it, but that he couldn’t act on it because he was illegally bugging Nixon’s associates (which is also covered in the previous links).
I only made the reference because it was one of those campaign promises that didn’t really come to fruition until 5 years later (if you view 1973 as the end of the war). So, as far as Antonetti, I was just trying to say that I hope he really DOES have a plan and that we’ll see it put into action sooner rather than later.
Sounds like the typically convoluted LBJ apologia. You academics. I’d like to read Caro’s biography of the man, but The Power Broker took me at least three months. Maybe in the next life.
Believe me, I didn’t think I was apologizing for LBJ by pointing out that he was doing what Nixon was run out of office for doing, and while Nixon might have sabotaged the peace talks in 1968, it’s not as if LBJ didn’t have chances to end things sooner.
Believe it or not, I actually kind of like both LBJ and Nixon, even if I think they were both seriously flawed men.
This was a long time coming.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Dec 17, 2011 11:19 PM EST up reply actions
And Godwin’s Law is proven once again.
"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway
by notthatnoise on Dec 18, 2011 11:54 AM EST up reply actions
Terrible trades
Maybe Shapiro should be reminded about the Lee and CC trade and what we got for them. Not the worth of what we gave up that’s for sure. How many times did he spend wasteful money on Jason Bere? Shapiro has not made many good deals toeards the end of his GM ship. As a matter of fact he may of cost us more.
by wagonboss727 on Dec 15, 2011 3:59 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe we should remind you of Choo or Asdrubal. Or Carlos Santana. Or Chris Perez.
Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.
well you can just as easily say he probably missed on his two biggest ones, the Lee and Sabathia deals.
And you can just as easily say that Shapiro has been so good at dealing middling players for superior talent that it might very well outweigh the mistakes he has made in trading hot commodities. Or maybe he has a history of being good at both, since you know, that is how we got Lee in the first place.
Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.
I like picking up hitting midseason, instead of over the winter. Midseason, the team can afford a much better hitter on a short term contract than the mediocre hitter available only on a multiyear deal in the winter. The winter market is best for depth signings, because most every other potentially contending team is busy trying to figure out how to sign Darvish or Fielder. Inefficient market, in other words, with value to be found on the depth side of the market and nothing but expensive heartbreak over in the high end free agent isles. Of course, it would be nice if our depth signings were not so depth, so that we could have a better shot at the hot start that I’d love to see.
I know sometimes it’s necessary, but there’s just something so extremely frustrating about always be on the outside looking in while other teams sign real free agents (and not just aging utility guys on minor league deals). I know Willingham isn’t great in the field, but he would’ve filled (or at least partially filled) a major need in the lineup and the fact that we couldn’t scrape together 8 million/season for him (when Travis will be coming off the books next season anyway) is frustrating. I trust the front office’s judgement, but I hate every offseason to be out of the discussion about free agents before it even begins. Even type-B free agents are usually prohibited to us. I’m not part of the DOLANZ R CHEAP crowd because I know the reality of the situation, but I wish we could, just once, be in play for some better-than-undesirable free agents. It seems like we’re always scrambling for cheap scraps after the big boys have eaten, and every year it gets harder to watch.
Oh well, we’ll still win the division next year. Go tribe.
For the inflated comments on this thread, I’m invoking Sayre’s Law. The only point I clearly understood after 138 comments was Jay saying “We got Kerry Wood.”
by Bogalusa Bomber on Dec 18, 2011 1:16 AM EST reply actions

by 















