Using What You Have: Jason Donald at 1B
by afh4 on Dec 4, 2011 9:00 AM EST
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As we talked through the other day, the Indians are reportedly in the market for some right-handed hitting, especially some that can play at either 1B or a corner OF slot. Bastian raised the possibility that Jason Donald could play that role in the outfield, at least part time, and that makes sense. Donald's bats from the right side, and his career line against left-handed pitching is .328/.405/.481; in limited action last season, that line was .377/.424/.525. Donald's benefited from an elevated BAbip against LHP in his career and he's only got 131 career major league ABs in that split, and his minor league line doesn't show a player who's always devoured lefties. At the same time, Donald's been a capable offensive player pretty much his entire minor league career, and Occam's razor says we can assume he's going to hit LHP better than RHP if he's able to stay healthy in the majors.
At the same time, Matt LaPorta, a left-handed right-handed batter, has struggled, to say the least, in becoming a major league first baseman. There's not much to like about his major league line, and his numbers against RHP aren't exactly terrific: .246/.304/.421. Still, compare that to his line against LHP: .211/.303/.326.
I think Donald should be getting regular at-bats against LHP next season (and more, if they can be found), and LaPorta probably should not face LHP. There are a number of moving parts here: Shelley Duncan is a RHB who has, at times, hit LHP pretty well; LaPorta and Donald have the profiles outlined above; Carlos Santana needs to play every day, but likely needs to see time at 1B to keep fresh; Lou Marson has hit miserably against RHP, less so versus LHP.
The idea of playing Donald in the outfield is likely born out of keeping 1B open for Santana against RHP. It's going to be interesting to see if Donald also sees some time at 1B, this season. The key question might actually be who is better in the outfield, Duncan or Donald? Imagine the Indians are facing a LHP, Santana won't be catching, and Hafner is hurt (hard to imagine, right?). Which of these alignments do you prefer?
DH: Santana
1B: Duncan
LF: Donald
or
DH: Duncan
1B: Santana
LF: Donald
or
DH: Donald
1B: Santana
LF: Duncan
or
DH: Santana
1B: Donald
LF: Carrera/Sizemore/Brantley etc
or
DH: Santana
1B: Duncan
LF: Carrera/Sizemore/Brantley etc
I'll admit this isn't exactly a fascinating exercise, and it's complicated by Brantley, Carrera, and any additional OF signings, as well as how many ABs they try to find for Hannahan (assuming he returns). I just thought I'd throw this question out there because I can't shake a trio of feelings:
1: I'd rather play Donald than Duncan in 2012, pretty much whenever possible. Donald has a lot greater potential value and I think he might be a better hitter anyway.
2: Duncan's not great in the outfield, but he's played out there his whole life. I don't have a lot of confidence that Donald's going to be better out there than Duncan, and certainly he's not going to be better than one of the actual outfielders.
3: I'm confident Donald, even though he's never been there, would probably be as good as any of the first basemen, right away. He's been a well regarded infielder his entire career.
4: Kipnis and Cabrera should play as close to every day as possible.
For me, I'd rather see Donald logging time at 1B while Santana DH's and either an actual outfielder or Duncan patrols the corner. That strikes me as the best combination of hitting and fielding. I'm not enthralled by the idea of watching Donald stumble around out there and I suspect he could play 1B better than Santana right away. This isn't a great line of thinking for Duncan, who's going to struggle to find time if the Indians follow this line of thinking and find an extra body for the outfield (Fukudome?).
I'm likely missing some obvious issues here—let me know what they are.
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At the same time, Matt LaPorta, a left-handed batter,
LaPorta is right-handed, though it’s still no excuse for his split against RHPs.
But now we know why he’s been so bad, trying to hit righty all this time.
by YoDaddyWags on Dec 4, 2011 9:12 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Probably depends if you carry a third catcher on the roster or not.
by kennesawmountainwahoo on Dec 4, 2011 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
This. If we don’t pick up a true 1B and Lou proves himself particularly useful at the plate for any stretch of time this season and if Hafner is healthy (biggest if), we would want all 3 sticks in the lineup. Not likely, sure, but I like to play the if game.
Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.
Why do people here think that Lou marson is useful at all? His line last year was .230//.300 /.296
That’s awful. It’s so much easier to stick Santana behind the plate and get a 1b that can hit better than LaPorta.
Everybody has holes in their offense; last year Detroit got minus oWARs out of their third baseman and their right fielder; their starting OF combined for 3 oWAR (the Indians got 2.9 out of Brantley, Sizemore and Choo). LaPorta’s miserable offense was not redeemed by any facility with his glove; Marson, who is a lock, I tell you, to put up at least a 0.4 oWAR, has terrific defensive skills; I think the team could carry him, with some Choo resurgence.
But as I say below, I’m warming up to Kotchman.
They could carry them, but they don’t have too. Marson is definitely a decent backup catcher with good defense. The thing is though is that the two positions that the Indians really need to fill are 1B and OF. Those are traditionally the easier positions to find decent players at. That’s really all I’m arguing for.
Yes, it’d be great to find young long term solutions for those positions, but if they can’t, they should get a veteran who can hit more than LaPorta. Not hard to do.
I think I’d be OK with Donald at 1b if they can’t find anyone else though.
Marson hit left-handed pitching in 2010 and 2011. He also may be among the best defensive catchers in the league, and there’s no doubt about that when it comes to his throwing.
Marson playing against LHP isn’t a bad thing. For a team who has a bunch of left-handed hitters with platoon splits, having a few Marson’s throughout the lineup for near the league minimum seems fine.
by xrickx on Dec 4, 2011 12:52 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
LaPorta is awful and will be lucky to even make the team this year. While Donald is not a bad idea, it’d be so much better if they just go and grab a 1B that can hit. It shouldn’t be that difficult. Kotchman is sitting right there. Go get him.
Kotchman isn’t much to write home about. He hit last year, but doesn’t really have a strong history. He is at the right age to breakout, but I’m not convinced.
Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.
Ugh. They only need a marginal upgrade. Kotchman would be more than enough. LaPorta and Marson CAN NOT HIT.
Kotchman had a.335 BABIP in 2011. His career BABIP before 2011 was is .268.
Part of the explanation is that he hit a few more groundballs in 2011 than in previous seasons. Otherwise, his BB/K rates and his LD% were right around his career averages.
If When he loses 50 points off his BABIP, you are not going to want Casey Kotchman as your first baseman, at least not for the price that I’m sure he is commanding as a free agent.
All concerns, but he’s still a much much much much better bet than either
1. Matt LaPorta
2. Having Lou Marson as your starting catcher.
Even if he loses 50 batting average points which I don’t think is likely, maybe some loss or maybe he’ll be just as good, he would still be an upgrade.
In 2010, Kotchman hit .217/.280/.336 in 414 ABs. LaPorta last year in 352 ABs hit .247/.299/.412.
You do realize that Kotchman, only one year ago, put up a season that was .100 points of OPS worse than what LaPorta did last year?
If Kotchman were able to reproduce what he did last year, sure, he makes sense. But we also don’t know what are his contract demands.
I think you’re winning me over here, if they’re not going to follow my brilliant advice about Santana. Notwithstanding the poor results of Jack Z’s decision to emphasize defense, it would be a pleasure to watch a guy who can pick it, and my suspicion is that the results on pitching performance could be dramatic.
Jack Z’s plan did not fail simply because he constructed a team full of players who know how to use their glove. It failed because those players also take their gloves, rather than a bat, into the batting box.
We’ve talked about it here before. The Indians have not aligned their infield defense to support their, or any, pitching staff., especially up the middle. I’d support a first baseman who could field, but I’d prefer an average first baseman who can hit. I just don’t have the slightest clue who that player should be.
I don’t think he’ll hit any better than LaPorta, and he’ll be paid more money to do it.
"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway
by notthatnoise on Dec 4, 2011 2:44 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
What does it take to convince LGTers that LaPorta stinks? How bad does he have to suck before you figure it out?
I’m not completely sold on Kotchman either, but they are not going to run LaPorta out there again.
Not really. I just don’t understand why anyone would want a starting lineup that includes Lou Marson and Matt LaPorta when there are options out there. There is no need to start a 1B with a .300 OBP.
We also seem to be thinking that we need to get good value or a young player when really a veteran stopgap would be just fine. Even if we have to overpay.
Who here has said they want to start LaPorta and Marson at the same time?
Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.
The concern with Santana as a catcher is lost time due to injury. Here’s a quick and dirty study about the difference between catching and playing first base. I went back to find a cohort of the most recent catchers who did something like Santana did this past year—which was put up 4.2 oWAR in 658 PAs at age 25. The group I found going back over the last 18 years or so who established themselves as young and effective starters were Todd Hundley, Mike Piazza, Javy Lopez, Ivan Rodriguez, Jason Kendall, A.J. Pierzynski, Victor Martinez and Jorge Posada. In the five seasons after the establishing one, they all did pretty well, kept their jobs, played a lot. Collectively, they averaged 468 PAs per season.
I then assembled a cohort of first basemen who similarly established themselves as effective starters by their mid-twenties. This cohort was Derrek Lee, Mark Texeira, Albert Pujols, Todd Helton, Carlos Delgado, Ryan Klesko, Jason Giambi and Mike Sweeney. They also all did well, kept their jobs and played a lot. To the tune of 639 PAs per season.
Over five years, which is the Indians period of control over Carlos Santana, the first base cohort averaged 856 more PAs than the catcher cohort. A Santana at first base is likely to compile about 21 oWAR in the next five years, without figuring additional improvement; a catching Santana is likely to put up 15. A Santana-Marson combo is thus probably good for 23.5 oWAR, minimally. Kotchman in his career has amassed 3.4 oWAR. He had 3.1 last year, and a 2.0 in 2007, but he’s also put up 0.1 and a 0.3. If he puts up that 1.5 or so average, you come close to the minimal expectation of the Santana-Marson duo, with by all accounts great defense at first and Santana’s middling catching skills.
I have vacillated about which route I’d go. The more time between now and the last time I actually saw Marson bat, the more I like him as a starter. But then the idea of a 3 oWAR, good OBA, good defense first baseman—best case scenario Kotchman—is certainly enticing, if other busybodies would stop with the BABIP already. At any rate, I’d say that contemplating starting Marson isn’t dumb.
by YoDaddyWags on Dec 4, 2011 11:50 PM EST up reply actions 9 recs
If I could rec on mobile, I would. This is what makes this site go when it’s really humming. I don’t necessarily agree, but it’s cogent and compelling.
by afh4 on Dec 5, 2011 12:21 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
Marson is a guy seriously in need of a sit-down with a hitting coach. While his hitting numbers superficially improved last year, he was in many ways as horrendous or worse than a year ago. As a minor leaguer, he has pretty much been a line-drive, contact, plate discipline machine. With Cleveland last year, he struggled mightily in the contact department, particularly on pitches outside the zone (which to his credit, he did a good job laying off of). If Marson could elevate his average and OBP to something like his minor league numbers suggest, .275/.350, a 2/3:1/3 split between him and Santana, with Santana seeing the bulk of his time at 1B, would seem pretty nice.
by APV on Dec 5, 2011 7:26 AM EST up reply actions
No. Any catcher that has an OBP of 0.300 not a starter. Santana is a good catcher, the Indians are going to contend for the next couple of years and carrying a crappy catcher when it is not all that hard to find a 1B who can hit at least a little bit is not smart.
They are only going probably have Santana until is he hits free agency anyways, why not get all the use out of him that you can when your team is built to contend?
Lou Marson, starting catcher. Right.
A crappy (hitting) catcher with elite defense isn’t all that hard to find? You do realize that not all catchers that can’t hit are automatically elite defenders, right?
Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.
Once again. Think about the situation. You can either have a decent defensive catcher who can hit really well in Santana and go find a 1B who has an OBP above .300
Or, you can start the supposedly awesome defensive catcher who can’t hit at all in Marson and move Santana to 1B where his offense is much less impressive at a position that it is usually easy to fill with at least a non-black hole type of hitter.
That’s it. It’s so easy that anyone can figure out the correct move. Instead though, you want to see Lou Marson starting catcher 2012.
Keep Santana at catcher, go find a 1B who is not a black hole. Even if you overpay for him. It’s so simple, quit trying to make it complicated.
I’m always wary of claims of simplicity; not much is simple in this world. As has been noted, there’s nobody advocating for LaPorta here, and the Marson arguments are speculative. It’s absolutely fitting that a gimlet eye be cast upon Kotchman, or any potential FA signing, and those plumping for specific FA solutions, or for in-house solutions, would do better for their argument if they took the time to actually craft one.
Five AL teams won 90 or more games last year: Boston, Detroit, New York, Tampa and Texas. Here’s the average Runs Created per 27 outs (RC/9) of their collective lineups, from top performer on down; next to it, the Indians equivalent:
1. 8.2 / 5.9 Hafner, DH
2. 6.9 / 5.5 Santana, C
3. 6.5 / 5.4 A. Cabrera, SS
4. 6.1 / 4.7 Choo, RF
5. 5.7 / 4.5 LaPorta, 1B
6. 5.0 / 4.4 Hannahan, 3B
7. 4.4 / 4.2 Brantley, LF
8. 3.9 / 4.0 Sizemore, CF
9. 3.4 / 2.8 O. Cabrera, 2B
50.1 / 41.4
We know that 41.4 runs is wholly inadequate, but we also see can foresee improvements for 2012: OCab is gone; Kipnis put up a sparkling 6.7 RC/9. That’s a four run improvement; if you want to practice moderation in all things, perhaps we should expect a three run improvement. Choo averaged 7.7 RC/9 before last year; let’s pencil him in to recover two runs over last year’s 4.7. Suddenly, you’re in at 46.4. But I wouldn’t plan on anything more out of Brantley and Sizemore, and you could certainly see regression from ACab and Hafner; and, based on the rigors of the position, we could reasonably expect a deterioration from Santana, who had over 600 PAs last year. Kotchman put up a 5.9 for TB last year; could he do it again? Maybe.
If one took the positional revamping route, you might see this:
1B 6.0 Santana
2B 5.0 Donald
SS 5.0 ACabrera
3B 4.5 Hannahan/Chisenhall
LF 6.0 Kipnis
CF 4.0 Sizemore/Brantley
RF 6.7 Choo
C 3.0 Marson
DH 5.5 Hafner/Duncan
That’s a 45.7 total, with some upside. I’m wondering if any FA money would be better spent on pitching, given the volatility of the Tribe pen.
by YoDaddyWags on Dec 5, 2011 11:33 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
You are overthinking this.
1. Find a 1B that can hit a bit – should be easy, especially when you are replacing terrible hitters in Lou Marson and Matt LaPorta
2. Keep Santana at catcher where he would be one of the best hitters at catcher while providing decent defense.
I really can’t believe we are even arguing about this.
Matt LaPorta and Lou Marson can’t hit, let’s find someone that is better than them to play 1B, shouldn’t be hard considering how bad they hit.
You can never overthink things in the off season, can you? Another way to go would be to get a free agent catcher with some pop, but, sadly, Minnesota seems to have snagged the best one, Ryan Doumit, a solid 5 RC/9 guy, for $3 million.
I agree with your main premise that 1B is the easiest position to find relatively cheap, adequate stop-gap production, and therefore sets up nicely for us. But your don’t-think-just-throw-FA-money-at-the-problem is much more of a Yankee line of thinking. Even if we end up going the FA route, thinking outside of the box and exploring every possible solution is both necessary for a team in a market such as ours, and in my mind, a lot more interesting as well.
Sophistry! A weaker argument is not a strong one. Don’t make this harder than it is.
Santana… should be catching. He’s a very very good player, but we need him behind the plate. That gives us the potential to have both a.) a good hitting catcher and 1baseman instead of b.) just a decent hitting first baseman.
Yeah, Marson throws some guys out. And OPS+ 68. If you think that is acceptable, AT ALL, god help the businesses you’re all trying to run.
Of course it’s acceptable. You’re mixing up your arguments. If we didn’t have Santana, we wouldn’t necessarily be that concerned about the catcher spot.
by Jay on Dec 7, 2011 8:46 AM EST up reply actions
Negative ghostrider. Marson is only acceptable if you have either a perfect line up everywhere else or massive holes everywhere else. (Oh, wait…)
Thinking about this lineup without Santana means we’re only getting above average production out of our middle infield. I think I just threw up in my mouth.
The reason it’s great to have a hitting catcher is the obvious: it increases your overall offensive capacity. It means you get production out of 1b (which is an absolute given among any decent team) and catcher, instead of just 1b and an automatic out.
Artificially limiting a rare opportunity to increase your overall lineup strength by sticking your good-to-great catcher at 1b where he suddenly becomes very average and then giving yourself an automatic out with Marson is just… well, that thought is beyond my skill to heal.
You keep operating under some strange idea that I don’t want to go get a 1B, which is not and has never been the case. You need to stop projecting and start listening. I have also not once said that solution is for Santana to be the full time 1B. Never once. I just don’t think Kotchman solves your problem. I said that. And I said Marson can be useful starting every 4th or 5th day.
Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.
I would be perfectly fine with a veteran stopgap. That is not what Kotchman is.
"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway
by notthatnoise on Dec 4, 2011 10:10 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
It’s easy to say we should overpay. Less so after you see how much we’d have to overpay.
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Dec 5, 2011 12:27 AM EST up reply actions
I would be.
"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway
by notthatnoise on Dec 4, 2011 10:10 PM EST up reply actions
LaPorta sucks too. I never said otherwise.
"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway
by notthatnoise on Dec 4, 2011 10:09 PM EST up reply actions
aren’t you the guy who complains about the Pomeranz fanshots? And then posted Kotchman’s name 7 times in 4 days…
by westbrook on Dec 5, 2011 12:57 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Off topic: I have seen Yonder Alonso names tosses around a little (very little, I think it was just one article on Baseball Ref.). He put up some pretty good numbers last season in limited action…I am not what it would take to get him though. Would you give up something like Chun Chen and Tomlin? I think Tomlin was a name the article tossed out.
Until his cup of coffee last year, the book on Alonso was a first round pedigree but a general consensus that his bat would be solid but unspactacular at first base. He hit better in two months in Cinci than he ever had in the minors. Goldstein said last year that he’s more likely a “second division starter.” He cannot hit left handed pitching. He’s also merely average with the glove and not an asset on the bases.
There’s value there, but two good months in the major leagues seems to have people thinking more of him than just prior to his call up. I guess the question is whether his improvement is sustainable. Given what Cinci has invested in him, I think it costs more to acquire him than he’s worth.
I wouldn’t think Cinci has interest in a fly ball pitcher like Tomlin.
It would also be OK to get him. We don’t need value these next two years, we need guys to be better than what we have at positions that we are weak at.
You raise a good point, though, that clubs like SF and Seattle are going to have more interest in a guy like that. “More” being a relative term of course.
by Jay on Dec 5, 2011 5:22 PM EST up reply actions
Yonder Alonso in the International League – 2011 (Age 24)
.296 BA / .374 OBP / .486 SLG / .860 OPS with 12 HR, 24 2B in 409 PA
Cord Phelps in the International League – 2011 (Age 24)
.294 BA / .376 OBP / .492 SLG / .868 OPS with 14 HR, 25 2B in 434 PA
That may be simplifying things a bit much (and Alonso was certainly better in MLB last year), but count me as one that is less than enamored of Alonso as a 1B solution for 2012, or anytime.
by The DiaTriber on Dec 6, 2011 9:26 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
he’s a solid prospect
I like ex-Phillies prospects.
by Gradyforpresident on Dec 6, 2011 10:13 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Well, if he has a weight problem, I don’t think I would want him.
Fear the Fedora.
by MooneysRebellion on Dec 7, 2011 8:13 AM EST up reply actions
So was Matt LaPorta. Actually, much more so.
by The DiaTriber on Dec 7, 2011 10:21 AM EST up reply actions
I think we can safely say that Gradyforpresident is trying to turn “solid prospect” into a meme for “basically worthless.”
See discussion here.
Hadn’t seen that. GFP’s comment went right over my head.
by The DiaTriber on Dec 7, 2011 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
it should, right? he plays skill positions
I like ex-Phillies prospects.
by Gradyforpresident on Dec 7, 2011 9:57 AM EST up reply actions
You can’t damn a first basemen with weaker praise than “offensively capable in the minors.” If we don’t acquire a first basemen we are absolutely, 100% screwed in 2012.
who is on 1st base!
It is not rocket science people; If Kipnis was a outfielder before he was switched to 2nd base
then Indians would be far better served with Kipnis in LF, and use Donald at 2b.
Why they want to convert a 2basemen to outfield when they already have a natural outfielder
who was just converted to 2b. Put players in there natural positions instead of making them play out of position! And Santana stinks at 1b, poor defense…If he is not going to catch then DH him.
G
There’s a logic to it, but Kipnis is not really a professional LF is he? It’s certainly an easier conversion than Donald but, then, I think my opinion is to avoid these conversions at all with our current roster.
by afh4 on Dec 5, 2011 12:14 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
Personally, I think it’s pretty stupid if they try to convert Donald to the outfield. Donald is going to play when whoever of the three non-firstbaseman infielders gets injured this season. He’ll also get at-bats in a reserve role throughout the year and/or to specifically spell Chisenhall vs. LHP. To assume this team will go without injuries to its starting players is foolhardy. Find an outfielder to play the outfield, and enough with this moving guys out and into the infield at the major league level.
Agreed. Donald’s value is in his handedness and his versatility. The fact that he can log time at 3rd, 2nd, and SS and still hit at an average rate gives the Indians something they haven’t had (sans Baboo) in ages. It’s not a question of IF he will play major minutes, but WHEN he will be necessary to spell each player as they get nicked up with minor injuries. (Praying SS and 2B stay healthy, but not holding my breath)
I’m not sure where the depth at OF is coming from, but there is currently no solution like Donald for the outfield. It needs to be addressed far more than the 1B issue, given the injury history out there.
"Mixed emotions. Rather see him hit PEDroia [with that pitch]. I don’t care if he is in the dugout"
They have worked hard in getting him converted to 2B, with still room to go. His future with the team is 2B and until he proves he isn’t useful enough as a full time 2B starter, which he hasn’t yet done, he stays right there at 2nd. What is the point of floating the guy you really want to keep around the diamond when you can do so with someone you want to shop to other teams?
Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.
Agreed. Donald’s value is in his handedness and his versatility. The fact that he can log time at 3rd, 2nd, and SS and still hit at an average rate gives the Indians something they haven’t had (sans Baboo) in ages. It’s not a question of IF he will play major minutes, but WHEN he will be necessary to spell each player as they get nicked up with minor injuries. (Praying SS and 2B stay healthy, but not holding my breath)
I’m not sure where the depth at OF is coming from, but there is currently no solution like Donald for the outfield. It needs to be addressed far more than the 1B issue, given the injury history out there.
"Mixed emotions. Rather see him hit PEDroia [with that pitch]. I don’t care if he is in the dugout"
Adam Dunn had an OPS lower than Lou Marson last year. Ouch.
Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.
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