Is There Historical Hope for Matt LaPorta?

by afh4 on Dec 5, 2011 5:07 PM EST in Analysis

Similar to the exercise with Lou Marson from this morning—who is Matt LaPorta similarly to historically? We're looking for players with very little defensive value who have really struggled to hit in their young careers. This list is players who:

Have played since integration (Matt LaPorta does)
In their first five seasons posted OBP's under .310 (LaPorta is .304), SLG under .400 (LaPorta is .397), and OPS+ under 100 (LaPorta is 93).
In their first five seasons played at least 250 games (LaPorta has played 269) and recorded those first 250 games between the ages of 23 and 28 (LaPorta was 24-26). I've intentionally left out younger players.
Played 60% of their games at 1B or DH (LaPorta has played 200/246 at 1B).

Rk	Player	G	OBP	SLG	OPS+	From	To	Age	PA	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OPS	Pos	Tm
1	Todd Benzinger	601	.302	.383	87	1987	1991	24-28	2234	99	12	46	134	376	.255	.685	*3/978D	BOS-CIN-TOT
2	Tommy McCraw	534	.301	.351	92	1964	1967	23-26	1647	57	13	27	119	208	.241	.653	*3/789	CHW
3	Dan Meyer	387	.295	.377	87	1976	1978	23-25	1431	50	9	32	84	112	.253	.673	*3/7D	DET-SEA
4	Jim Spencer	376	.299	.372	94	1970	1972	23-25	1347	46	6	31	88	149	.250	.671	*3/7	CAL
5	Dick Nen	361	.289	.336	82	1963	1968	23-28	913	23	3	21	77	152	.224	.625	*3/7	LAD-WSA-CHC
6	Carlos Martinez	342	.300	.379	91	1989	1992	23-26	1178	51	6	19	48	161	.270	.679	*3/5D7	CHW-CLE
7	Kevin Young	321	.292	.368	73	1992	1996	23-27	989	46	5	21	65	201	.235	.660	*3/59D7	PIT-KCR
8	Rick Leach	316	.306	.336	78	1981	1985	24-28	743	33	6	7	67	88	.237	.643	*3/9D781	DET-TOR
9	Rocky Nelson	281	.297	.336	67	1949	1952	24-27	803	27	12	6	56	32	.242	.633	*3/7	STL-TOT-BRO
10	Chuck Harrison	279	.302	.352	87	1965	1969	24-28	958	39	6	15	74	128	.242	.654	*3	HOU-KCR
11	Matt LaPorta	269	.304	.397	93	2009	2011	24-26	1008	51	2	30	81	206	.238	.701	*3/7D9	CLE
12	Jim Traber	254	.279	.355	78	1986	1989	24-27	873	21	0	27	56	114	.227	.634	*3/D79	BAL

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/5/2011.

As with Lou, the news is not great. This entire list went on to produce, charitably, less than 10 quality major league seasons as hitters. Many of the players on this list had essentially no career after that first exposure. What stands out to you? Can anybody make a compelling argument for handing LaPorta another pile of ABs?

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Comments

:’(

I'm storming your castle on my steed, m'lady.

by CoyG Biv on Dec 5, 2011 5:11 PM EST reply actions

I can’t back it with hard stats, but I know my visceral reaction is that I’m 100% tired of watching Matt LaPorta play baseball.

by Joel D on Dec 5, 2011 5:15 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

Let’s just send him to Pittsburgh now

"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl

by world dictator on Dec 5, 2011 5:17 PM EST reply actions 2 recs

Thanks for posting these, it’s helpful to have some context.

If those guys are indicative of the quality of LaPorta, and I see no reason not to believe that, he should start planning for his career after baseball.

I came at it from a different direction and ended up in the same crappy neighborhood. Looking at all post-expansion era players who spent 60% of their time at any of 1b/3b/rf/lf/dh, accumulated 800-1200 plate appearances through the end of their age-26 season and had an OPS+ of 75-95. 24 guys, including LaPorta.

Eighteen didn’t amount to anything; that is, they finished their careers with fewer than 3000 plate appearances and had an OPS+ less than 100 (Paul Dade sighting! Karim Garcia! Tony Tarasco!)

Three (Randy Bush, Kevin Young, and Jerry Hairston, Sr.) had some slight success. Young had a couple of good years mid-career, but finished with a 95 OPS+ in 4351 PA. Bush managed to eke out a 102 OPS+ in 3480 PA by almost never facing a lefty (a 478 career OPS in only 119 PA against southpaws). And Jerry Hairston, father of Jerry Hairston and Scott Hairston, brother of John Hairston, and son of Sam Hairston, had a long career full of pinch-hitting appearances, amassing 2023 PA of 102 OPS+.

A grand total of three players had any real success. One, Shane Victorino, is currently active, and is really a centerfielder not a corner outfielder. He’s got 3629 PA of 104 OPS+ and a broader base of skills than LaPorta. David Segui (son of Diego) managed 5449 PA of 110 OPS+. Finally, a representative of another great baseball family, Matty Alou achieved the most, garnering 6220 PA with an OPS+ of 105 and two all-star appearances. Once again, a totally different skill set than LaPorta.

It really doesn’t look good. There is a precedent for somebody like him turning into an acceptable player (or maybe a precedent for somebody who is actually an acceptable player managing to perform as poorly as he has through age 26), but just barely. An upside of a 10% chance of matching David Segui is not the kind of thing you want to hear.

by InfiniteMonkeyTypists on Dec 5, 2011 6:37 PM EST reply actions 4 recs

I say we wrap up all of Matt’s future PAs in a box with a pretty bow and put it under Todd Benzinger’s Christmas tree with a note that says, “Do Not Open. Ever.”

by YoDaddyWags on Dec 5, 2011 6:57 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

LaPorta is obviously a personal vortex of suck, but I do recall him starting off last season not sucking entirely. Through the first week of June (48 games) LaPorta was hitting .255/.326/.478 with 8 HRs. He was walking in just under 10% of his plate appearances. All in all…not awful. From that point forward he was a different, far more brutal to watch, player. For the rest of the year (59 games) he hit .241/.275/.356. He stopped walking (< 3.5%) and stopped hitting for power (3 HRs). I went back through the boxscores and game recaps to see if he was hit by a pitch or if there was any mention of an injury around that time and found nothing. Maybe it was just a slump he never got out of….or maybe he just sucks.

by APV on Dec 5, 2011 7:51 PM EST reply actions

the most notable thing around that time is the possibility that Alexi Ogando stole LaPorta’s mojo

by APV on Dec 5, 2011 7:56 PM EST up reply actions

I like this explanation best.

"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway

by notthatnoise on Dec 5, 2011 11:35 PM EST up reply actions

LaPorta was hitting .255/.326/.478 with 8 HRs.

All I see from this is a very poor batters eye from a position that should be one of the stronger OBP% positions.

by hans on Dec 5, 2011 10:20 PM EST up reply actions

After last season, his closest comp on B-Ref was Pete O’Brien and while that seemed to be a pretty stunning indictment of his ceiling, I’d love for LaPorta to be Pete O’Brien for the next few seasons.

by The DiaTriber on Dec 5, 2011 7:58 PM EST reply actions

Good eye. #9 comp on B-Ref similarity score for Pete O’Brien – David Segui. #9 comp for David Segui – Pete O’Brien. Bilateral symmetry never lies.

by InfiniteMonkeyTypists on Dec 5, 2011 8:43 PM EST up reply actions

The only way to put a positive spin on LaPorta is to use his injuries as a positive indicator. And of course we don’t do that, not for a player who has never put it all together and only rarely stayed healthy.

by Jay on Dec 5, 2011 8:18 PM EST reply actions

I wonder how many of his comparables had a minor league line anywhere similar to his. That’s the only reason he’s still around in the first place.

It seems to me that he has a 30-35 HR season in him, but it would be rather irresponsible to give him the opportunity to do so at this point.

by TKilbane on Dec 5, 2011 8:54 PM EST reply actions

AAA (3 seasons) AAA .400 .553 .953 (biggest stretch, age 24)
AA (1 season) AA .279 .386 .539 .924 (most of it age 23)

by APV on Dec 5, 2011 9:03 PM EST up reply actions

oops…a .313 batting average was dropped from the AAA line

by APV on Dec 5, 2011 9:04 PM EST up reply actions

Karim Garcia has a 922 OPS in 10 years at AAA, including a 959 this year. Holy cow, Karim Garcia is still active! Maybe that is the solution to our Matt LaPorta problem.

by InfiniteMonkeyTypists on Dec 5, 2011 10:04 PM EST up reply actions

Well he couldn’t be any worse (badda bing!)

by hans on Dec 5, 2011 10:22 PM EST up reply actions

I think we should, if we have to, overpay to get him.

by YoDaddyWags on Dec 5, 2011 10:27 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

I think, when we talk about Karim Garcia, that the term “overpay” will be quite relative.

by hans on Dec 5, 2011 10:37 PM EST up reply actions

Anything but Marson, amirite?

by Jay on Dec 6, 2011 1:50 PM EST up reply actions

It really sucks that LaPorta hasn’t panned out. He was highly rated by scouts and had the stats to back it up. Maybe he will put it together still.

by Cols714 on Dec 5, 2011 9:25 PM EST reply actions

Just a thought, but I think that the concussion he got in the Olympics (hit in the head by a fastball), has had ramifications to this day.

Editor at Alligator Army, a place that doesn't, you know, glorify concussions.
GoGators82 said it best: "Dollar Store cheap!"

by FlaGators on Dec 6, 2011 3:38 PM EST up reply actions

Or … he just sucks!

There doesn’t need to be a reason.

by Jay on Dec 7, 2011 8:44 AM EST up reply actions

That is true.

Editor at Alligator Army, a place that doesn't, you know, glorify concussions.
GoGators82 said it best: "Dollar Store cheap!"

by FlaGators on Dec 7, 2011 8:46 PM EST up reply actions

I will commend the organization for letting Mr. LaPorta prove without much doubt that he doesn’t deserve another gift wrapped opportunity to be a major leaguer, by letting him have the 1B position almost all to himself for the majority of last year.

by hans on Dec 5, 2011 10:23 PM EST reply actions

Matt LaPorta started 89 games at 1b last year. Carlos Santana started 63. While technically, that is a majority of games started at 1b by LaPorta, it is hardly having the position all to himself.

by woodsmeister on Dec 6, 2011 11:03 AM EST up reply actions

LaPorta started 56 of the first 68 games of the season, before going on the DL in mid-June. He was on pace for 524 PA with a 733 OPS.

By the time he went on the DL, he had already started to play himself out of an everyday spot, with a 636 OPS over his last six weeks. When he came back in July, it was more of the same, 663 OPS while making 20 starts in 26 games.

Through August 6, he started five times per week, and he was terrible. He was more of a half-time player for the rest of August, hit even worse and was demoted at the end of the month.

It’s not a perfect opportunity, no, but blocked more by health than anything else. Five starts a week, plus the occasional pinch-hit, certainly should be considered a full-time job, and he had that for the first four months of the season.

by Jay on Dec 6, 2011 2:05 PM EST up reply actions