A Better Sort of History: Carlos Santana

by afh4 on Dec 6, 2011 8:01 AM EST in Analysis

Yesterday, the long odds that Matt LaPorta and Lou Marson faced as they try to construct major league careers were outlined—this was not a pleasant undertaking. So, I decided to go looking for a more optimistic set of historical comps. What better place to start than young Carlos Santana, the Indians switch-hitting, mashing catcher. Here's what I wanted:

Played 180 games or more in his first two seasons (Santana is at 201), post integration
Played predominantly catcher, to the tune of 60% of his games during his first two seasons (Carlos went 135/201)
Really hit in his first two seasons, OBP over .340 and SLG over .440, as well as OPS+ over 120 (Carlos' career line is .244/.362/.459, with a 128 OPS+).

By far the most stringent requirement here is that the player arrives on the scene raking, as Santana did. If you allow players to use their totals over their first three, four, or five seasons, you expand Santana's comp list to players like Alex Avila, Mike Piazza, Mike Napoli, and Roy Campanella. With that in mind, who are Santana's comps by these criteria?

Rk	Player	HR	OPS+	OBP	SLG	G	From	To	Age	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OPS	Pos	Tm
1	Carlos Santana	33	128	.362	.459	201	2010	2011	24-25	850	702	107	171	48	2	101	134	9	162	3	0	11	18	8	3	.244	.821	*2/3D	CLE

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/6/2011.

That's the whole list. What about just as a hitter?

Rk	Player	HR	OPS+ ▾	OBP	SLG	G	From	To	Age	PA	2B	3B	BB	SO	BA	OPS	Pos	Tm
1	Frank Thomas	39	179	.453	.547	218	1990	1991	22-23	940	42	5	182	166	.321	1.000	*D3	CHW
2	Albert Pujols	71	154	.399	.586	318	2001	2002	21-22	1351	87	6	141	162	.321	.984	7/539D6	STL
3	Eddie Mathews	72	145	.366	.541	302	1952	1953	20-21	1274	54	13	158	198	.274	.907	*5	BSN-MLN
4	Mitchell Page	38	145	.380	.490	292	1977	1978	25-26	1171	53	15	131	190	.296	.870	*7/D9	OAK
5	Mickey Mantle	36	143	.377	.497	238	1951	1952	19-20	1012	48	12	118	185	.294	.874	*89/5	NYY
6	Wade Boggs	10	141	.431	.470	257	1982	1983	24-25	1066	58	8	127	57	.357	.900	*5/3D7	BOS
7	Ryan Braun	71	140	.350	.588	264	2007	2008	23-24	1155	65	13	71	241	.301	.937	*75/D	MIL
8	Curt Blefary	45	140	.376	.469	275	1965	1966	21-22	1069	37	7	161	129	.258	.845	*7/93	BAL
9	Will Clark	46	139	.359	.521	261	1986	1987	22-23	1046	56	7	83	174	.299	.880	*3	SFG
10	Frank Robinson	67	138	.378	.543	302	1956	1957	20-21	1345	56	11	108	187	.307	.920	*7/83	CIN
11	Jeff Bagwell	33	137	.377	.440	318	1991	1992	23-24	1347	60	10	159	213	.283	.818	*3	HOU
12	John Kruk	24	137	.405	.463	260	1986	1987	25-26	854	30	4	118	151	.312	.869	3/79	SDP
13	Alvin Davis	45	136	.386	.469	307	1984	1985	23-24	1355	67	4	187	149	.286	.855	*3/D	SEA
14	Tony Conigliaro	56	135	.345	.520	249	1964	1965	19-20	1030	42	7	86	194	.278	.865	*9/78	BOS
15	Josh Hamilton	51	133	.370	.538	246	2007	2008	26-27	1041	52	7	97	191	.300	.908	*8/9D7	CIN-TEX
16	David Wright	41	133	.371	.524	229	2004	2005	21-22	940	59	2	86	153	.302	.895	*5	NYM
17	Mike Stanton	56	132	.344	.525	250	2010	2011	20-21	997	51	6	104	289	.261	.869	*9/8D	FLA
18	Eddie Murray	54	131	.345	.475	321	1977	1978	21-22	1356	61	5	118	201	.284	.820	*3D/75	BAL
19	Evan Longoria	60	130	.355	.528	279	2008	2009	22-23	1179	75	2	118	262	.277	.883	*5/D6	TBR
20	Jimmie Hall	58	130	.340	.500	305	1963	1964	25-26	1133	41	8	107	213	.271	.840	*8/79	MIN
21	Darryl Strawberry	52	130	.340	.487	269	1983	1984	21-22	1075	42	11	122	259	.254	.827	*9/8	NYM
22	Orlando Cepeda	52	129	.349	.517	299	1958	1959	20-21	1291	73	8	62	184	.315	.866	*3/75	SFG
23	Wally Joyner	56	128	.357	.492	303	1986	1987	24-25	1327	60	4	129	122	.288	.848	*3	CAL
24	Bobby Bonds	41	128	.346	.451	239	1968	1969	22-23	1069	35	11	119	271	.257	.798	*98	SFG
25	Carlos Santana	33	128	.362	.459	201	2010	2011	24-25	850	48	2	134	162	.244	.821	*2/3D	CLE
26	Adam Dunn	45	126	.391	.493	224	2001	2002	21-22	962	46	3	166	244	.253	.884	*7/93D	CIN
27	Hank Aaron	40	125	.347	.499	275	1954	1955	20-21	1174	64	15	77	100	.299	.846	79/4	MLN
28	Harry Anderson	40	125	.355	.493	258	1957	1958	25-26	1036	49	10	95	156	.286	.848	*7/39	PHI
29	Ichiro Suzuki	16	123	.385	.441	314	2001	2002	27-28	1466	61	16	98	115	.336	.826	*9/D8	SEA
30	Hideki Matsui	47	123	.371	.477	325	2003	2004	29-30	1375	76	3	151	189	.292	.848	*7/8D	NYY
31	Ken Griffey	38	123	.350	.454	282	1989	1990	19-20	1172	51	7	107	164	.284	.805	*8/D	SEA
32	George Scott	46	122	.348	.449	321	1966	1967	22-23	1322	39	14	128	271	.273	.796	*3/5	BOS
33	Andrew McCutchen	28	121	.365	.459	262	2009	2010	22-23	1146	61	14	124	172	.286	.824	*8	PIT
34	Miguel Cabrera	45	121	.352	.497	247	2003	2004	20-21	1031	52	4	93	232	.285	.850	79/5D	FLA

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/6/2011.

I think the Indians might have something in Carlos Santana.

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Comments

Speaking of our good hitters…I wonder if the Indians would consider a Choo trade. Obviously it would require getting something closer to 2010 rather than 2011 value for him, but given his unwillingness to sign a long-term deal he is just a year-to-year asset who could probably benefit from changing his surroundings after last season. He also might net some legitimate, near major-league ready talent in return.

by APV on Dec 6, 2011 9:57 AM EST reply actions

I wouldn’t trade him this year. Our OF is bad enough as it is.

by Cols714 on Dec 6, 2011 10:04 AM EST up reply actions

You made my morning sad.

Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.

by USSChoo on Dec 6, 2011 10:10 AM EST up reply actions

Wait, your handle doesn’t stand for “u should swap Choo”?

by cleveland teamer on Dec 7, 2011 4:03 AM EST up reply actions

It might, apparently.

Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.

by USSChoo on Dec 7, 2011 9:15 AM EST up reply actions

Unless they’re getting major league outfield help in return I can’t see them doing it. If at the trade deadline we’re out of contention, maybe we go for it then.

"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway

by notthatnoise on Dec 6, 2011 11:04 AM EST up reply actions

Choo to the Marlins for Morrison and Sanchez?

by TheDanimal on Dec 6, 2011 11:11 AM EST up reply actions

No way are we going to sell low on the guy.

by Jay on Dec 6, 2011 1:42 PM EST up reply actions

My hypothetical was based on not selling low on him. And I think there is ample evidence that GMs look beyond a player’s most recent performance at this point.

by APV on Dec 6, 2011 1:47 PM EST up reply actions

Combination of injury issues, personal conduct issues and performance issues … I think most any GM will want to see Choo play like an All-Star again before valuing him like one. This is just common sense.

by Jay on Dec 7, 2011 8:27 AM EST up reply actions

Also, am I reading that Pujols defensive line right? He played first base, third, shortstop, left field and right field (and DH) in his first few seasons?

He’s a regular Ryan Garko.

by TheDanimal on Dec 6, 2011 11:12 AM EST reply actions

He played two innings at SS in ’02. I need to see video of that.

And here I thought a cat jumped on Andrew’s keyboard.

by JulioBernazard on Dec 6, 2011 11:29 AM EST up reply actions

He also played 2B for 3.1 innings in ’08.

by JulioBernazard on Dec 6, 2011 11:31 AM EST up reply actions

I know he played 3B for a game or two in either ’10 or ’11.

Speaking of that Pujols character…

Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Marlins’ 10-year offer to Albert Pujols is worth over $200 million.
If there was any doubt before about Miami’s level of interest, it can be put to rest now….

by westbrook on Dec 6, 2011 12:45 PM EST up reply actions

I see they’re following that “new stadium” strategy that worked so well for the Twins and Tigers!

by Jay on Dec 6, 2011 1:43 PM EST up reply actions

oh, but this is different—they had no fans beforehand!

by westbrook on Dec 6, 2011 1:58 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Good point.

by Jay on Dec 7, 2011 8:27 AM EST up reply actions

Each of these comments made me laugh.

by Roger Dorn on Dec 7, 2011 1:01 PM EST up reply actions

Bizarre that the Mets and White Sox are dumping salary this offseason, while the Marlins and Blue Jays may be the among the biggest spenders.

by Ryan on Dec 6, 2011 5:01 PM EST up reply actions

…goeth before the fall…

by stuart dean on Dec 6, 2011 8:31 PM EST up reply actions

Not only no other catchers on the list, but no SS or 2B either.

by InfiniteMonkeyTypists on Dec 6, 2011 12:43 PM EST reply actions

hawt.

"Mixed emotions. Rather see him hit PEDroia [with that pitch]. I don’t care if he is in the dugout"

by Gradysmanldy on Dec 6, 2011 3:18 PM EST up reply actions

Except Pujols, of course.

by Joel D on Dec 6, 2011 7:37 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs

Mitchell F-ing Paige – TINSTAHP

by stuart dean on Dec 6, 2011 8:32 PM EST reply actions

If the Marlins sign Pujols, would anyone here want to be in on Gaby Sanchez?

by emd2k3 on Dec 6, 2011 9:01 PM EST reply actions

i would be all over that

by tr1betime on Dec 6, 2011 9:41 PM EST up reply actions

Fangraphs has Sanchez as a 3 win player in 2011 and a 2 win player in 2010. I’m surprised to see that while he’s been somewhere between Ryan Garko’s 2007 and 2008 seasons with the bat in terms of wRC+, he provides some value with the glove and on the bases. He’s 28 years old, so it’s not as if he’s a core player.

He’s a nice player to bring up in your own system, and a definite improvement over LaPorta. But at what cost? And he can’t really afford to lose any power, base running ability, patience, or defensive value, or else the little things that give him value are absent.

by xrickx on Dec 6, 2011 10:57 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

This.

by westbrook on Dec 6, 2011 11:04 PM EST up reply actions

There were 11 players that qualified as “1B” that posted a higher WAR (via Fangraphs) than Sanchez last year:
The list, in order, is:
Miggy
Votto
Gonzalez
Prince
Pujols
Teixeira
Santana
Morse
Carlos Lee
Konerko
Cuddyer
Gaby Sanchez

Given the acquisition costs associated with the other names on that list, Sanchez looks pretty appealing, even as just a “definite improvement” over LaPorta, particularly given that Sanchez is under club control through the 2015 season, the same level of club control that the Indians have over LaPorta.

by The DiaTriber on Dec 7, 2011 8:45 AM EST up reply actions

I really have to agree. He’s good and cheap. The fact that he’s not really good seems like splitting hairs.

Getting back to xrickx’s comments, if he’s 28, why are we especially worried about decline? If anything, he’s likely to get more patient and may even have a late-career power surge.

by Jay on Dec 7, 2011 11:04 AM EST up reply actions

Bigger bust: LaPorta or Marte? GO.

I like ex-Phillies prospects.

by Gradyforpresident on Dec 7, 2011 11:49 AM EST reply actions

LaPorta.

Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.

by USSChoo on Dec 7, 2011 12:18 PM EST up reply actions

Marte, If you are a Braves fan.

by emd2k3 on Dec 7, 2011 1:15 PM EST up reply actions

I am, most decidedly, not a Braves fan.

Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.

by USSChoo on Dec 7, 2011 2:06 PM EST up reply actions

Marte. Younger and played a harder position. However, LaPorta was highly drafted so I can see the arguemnt.

by Cols714 on Dec 7, 2011 2:36 PM EST up reply actions

I think LaPorta’s ceiling as a hitter was enough higher than Marte’s to meet or exceed the difference in positional and defensive value.

Certainly much more was invested in LaPorta. For all the high hopes for Marte, all we paid for him was Coco Crisp’s arbitration years. Less, in fact, given that the rest of the trade was intended to sweeten our side of the deal. He probably wasn’t signed for much as an amateur. Contrast with LaPorta, who was a serious bonus baby and eventually traded more or less even-up for the incumbent Cy Young winner.

by Jay on Dec 8, 2011 10:59 PM EST up reply actions