Astros approached Indians on Carlos Lee, but too rich for Cle even with Houston paying half of...

Astros approached Indians on Carlos Lee, but too rich for Cle even with Houston paying half of contract

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I’m somewhat intrigued by this, because the more salary we take on, the less we have to give up in prospects, similar to the Lowe trade with Atlanta. Could Carlos Lee fill the need as a first baseman and sometime left-fielder?

Bill James projects him to hit for a .339 wOBA. The same wOBA he hit for this past season. He’ll be entering his age 36 season.

by hans on Dec 8, 2011 1:33 AM EST reply actions

Lee is tricky. But you have it right; not only in terms of the dynamic of a trade, but in terms of performance, he’s the Derek Lowe of hitters.

Like Lowe, he’s an aging player without much upside who has maintained his peripherals and who rarely misses time due to injury.

In 2011 he posted one of the best walk rates in his career (maybe because he was pitched around?), and he’s always controlled his strikeouts. If the Indians want to achieve more contact, he’s fits that bill. And he rarely is hurt.

But there’s a lot of questions here if the Indians can bridge the money gap. As an outfielder, his defense almost eliminates his entire offensive contribution. Except that in 2011, he somehow reversed a stretch of spectacularly unacceptable defensive seasons to post solid numbers, at least according to UZR. He’d make the most sense at first base, and UZR also liked him there. I’d be interested to know what scouts think.

For the last few years, he’s been among the worst baserunners in the league. LaPorta was nearly the worst last year, according to BP, so I guess there’s a net gain there.

Minute Maid park is kind to right handed hitters, but his home/road split the last few years isn’t anything significant. He also crushed lefties last year, but didn’t have such a huge split the year prior.

If he plays regularly in the outfield or if he doesn’t adjust to first base, he may not be worth more than a win. If the defensive gain is real as a first baseman, and his offense stays about the same, he’s probably worth somewhere around two wins. If we’re saying a win is worth $5M, there’s your $10M salary justification.

by xrickx on Dec 8, 2011 2:18 AM EST up reply actions

Are we talking Wins Above Replacement Player or Wins Above Matt Laporta?

by Chemo on Dec 9, 2011 3:11 AM EST up reply actions

These may be one and the same for the Indians right now, no?

by TKilbane on Dec 9, 2011 12:33 PM EST up reply actions

LaPorta was below replacement last season. Bill James’ system is projecting a bit of a dead-cat bounce for the guy, but I have no idea why. He sucked in 2010, too, so it’s not like he can regress upward.

by Jay on Dec 9, 2011 9:27 PM EST up reply actions

The too rich part could be the prospect cost, Lowe was had for nothing who knows what the full rebuilding Astros are asking for. While I would like El Caballo if they are asking for say Phelps plus some of our better pitching prospects I’d say the cost is too much.

by The Grimace on Dec 8, 2011 3:20 AM EST reply actions

Lee would be a bit of a risk. But if all they are asking for is Phelps plus a pitching prospect that sound like a decent gamble. The salary part sucks but if it’s only for one year.

Tough call.

by Cols714 on Dec 8, 2011 9:50 AM EST up reply actions