Hector Rondon, Human Caution Sign

by afh4 on Dec 8, 2011 12:35 PM EST in Analysis

As Bastian tweeted (and Adam fanshotted), Hector Rondon has a fractured elbow, the same one on which Tommy John surgery was performed in 2010. I have no idea what the nature of this injury is, or if the two injuries are conceivably related but regardless of how he fractured his elbow Rondon will not pitch full-time in the high minors again until, optimistically, late summer, 2012. Even if his health issues are all resolved at that point, the odds against Rondon ever playing at a high level again have to be incredibly long—he was considered a pitcher who needed time to work on secondary offerings and two years away from the game can't be good for his development.

At his peak, Rondon was one of the top prospects in the Indians system, and Adam wrote about him often. The RHP out of Venezuela featured a mid-90's fastball and dominated AA at 21, impressing the scouting-types: BA, Keith Law and Kevin Goldstein. In his 2009 wrap-up of the Indians system, Goldstein tagged Rondon as a potential three-starter with room for more, and the BP annual was similarly optimistic:

...Rondon can touch 95 mph with his fastball, but walked more than two batters just once in 27 appearances in 2009...Although he's immediately in contention for a starting spot in the rotation come 2010—it's a pulse-optional battle royale—the likely scenario is that he'll be back at Columbus to work on his secondary offerings. Since he's so often around the plate, he needs better breaking stuff to change batter's eye levels...

Hector was began 2010 in AAA and immediately went all to pieces, suddenly exhibiting a totally untenable HR rate, despite never having had any issues with the long ball previously in his career. Rondon's career is a pretty clear inverted parabola—he marched up one side of the mountain and then, mirror image, fell right off the other.

Year	Age	Tm	Lev	ERA	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	HBP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2006	18	Indians	Rk	5.13	11	11	0	52.2	62	34	30	6	3	32	8	10.6	1.0	0.5	5.5	10.67
2007	19	Lake County	A	4.37	27	27	0	136.0	143	78	66	13	27	113	11	9.5	0.9	1.8	7.5	4.19
2008	20	Kinston	A+	3.60	27	27	0	145.0	130	63	58	12	42	145	10	8.1	0.7	2.6	9.0	3.45
2009	21	2 Teams	AAA-AA	3.38	27	25	1	146.1	143	61	55	11	29	137	7	8.8	0.7	1.8	8.4	4.72
2009	21	Akron	AA	2.75	15	13	1	72.0	60	23	22	3	16	73	3	7.5	0.4	2.0	9.1	4.56
2009	21	Columbus	AAA	4.00	12	12	0	74.1	83	38	33	8	13	64	4	10.0	1.0	1.6	7.7	4.92
2010	22	Columbus	AAA	8.53	7	7	0	31.2	48	32	30	12	10	33	2	13.6	3.4	2.8	9.4	3.30
2011	23	Mahoning Valley	A-	3.00	2	2	0	3.0	3	1	1	0	0	2	0	9.0	0.0	0.0	6.0
6 Seasons				4.20	101	99	1	514.2	529	269	240	54	111	462	38	9.3	0.9	1.9	8.1	4.16
AAA (2 seasons)			AAA	5.35	19	19	0	106.0	131	70	63	20	23	97	6	11.1	1.7	2.0	8.2	4.22
A (1 season)			A	4.37	27	27	0	136.0	143	78	66	13	27	113	11	9.5	0.9	1.8	7.5	4.19
AA (1 season)			AA	2.75	15	13	1	72.0	60	23	22	3	16	73	3	7.5	0.4	2.0	9.1	4.56
Rk (1 season)			Rk	5.13	11	11	0	52.2	62	34	30	6	3	32	8	10.6	1.0	0.5	5.5	10.67
A- (1 season)			A-	3.00	2	2	0	3.0	3	1	1	0	0	2	0	9.0	0.0	0.0	6.0
A+ (1 season)			A+	3.60	27	27	0	145.0	130	63	58	12	42	145	10	8.1	0.7	2.6	9.0	3.45

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/8/2011.

There was a lot to like in Rondon and when Tommy John ended his 2010 season there was an inevitable impulse to explain his poor AAA performance with his injury. As the mantra goes, though, injury isn't a positive indicator. As recently as June, Adam was reminding us to not forget Hector but, at this point, that might be the prudent course of action. At the same time, Rondon is still just entering his age 24 season, meaning he could come to 2013 Spring Training as a 25 year old with a decent fastball and some history of success.

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