Early Weekend Six-Pack (2/17/2011)
by APV on Feb 17, 2011 5:00 PM EST
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PrintThe opening week of spring training would not be complete without an opening edition of the early weekend 6-pack for the 2011 season. This week I'll briefly address the big questions heading into camp.
1. Who's on second, what's on third?
Like a confused middle-schooler, the Indians seemingly have no clue what to do at second base or third base. That several, if not all of the potential candidates (O. Cabrera, Nix, Valbuena, Donald, Phelps) are being looked at for both positions only adds to the confusion. Paul Cousineau, Anthony Castrovince, Jordan Bastian, Terry Pluto, and our very-own Ryan have all commented at great length on the topic, so I'm not going to repeat their discussions here. Consider this a cheat sheet for considering the various possibilities. I'm assuming Asdrubal at SS, LaPorta at 1B, and Santana at C in every scenario:
Scenario #1 Scenario #2 Scenario #3 Scenario #4
Donald – 2B Donald – 3B Donald – 3B Donald – UI
Nix– 3B Nix – 2B Nix – UI Nix – 3B
Cabrera – UI Cabrera – UI Cabrera – 2B Cabrera – 2B
Valbuena – AAA* Valbuena – AAA* Valbuena – AAA* Valbuena – AAA*
Phelps – AAA Phelps – AAA Phelps – AAA Phelps – AAA
Scenario #5 Scenario #6 Scenario #7 Scenario #8
Donald – UI Donald – 2B Donald – AAA Donald – AAA
Nix – AAA* Nix – UI Nix – 3B Nix – 3B
Cabrera – 2B Cabrera – 3B Cabrera – 2B Cabrera – 2B
Valbuena – AAA* Valbuena – AAA* Valbuena – AAA* Valbuena – UI
Phelps – 3B Phelps – AAA Phelps – UI Phelps – AAA
Scenario #9 Scenario #10 Scenario #11 Scenario #12
Donald – AAA Donald – 2B Donald – 2B Donald – AAA
Nix – AAA* Nix – UI Nix – AAA Nix – 2B
Cabrera – UI Cabrera – cut Cabrera – cut Cabrera – cut
Valbuena – 3B Valbuena – AAA* Valbuena – UI Valbuena – UI
Phelps – 2B Phelps – 3B Phelps – 3B Phelps – 3B
* = possible cut
Create your own as well. Depending on how you are counting, this is only about 1/3 of the choices.
2. The bell tolls for thee
As you may notice above, there are a few too many infielders in camp, especially when you add in Everett and Hannahan. With Chisenhall and Kipnis set for regular duty in Columbus, even if guys are willing to accept a minor league assignment (where the option exists), there isn't enough space. The three guys who I could see as possible mildly surprising cuts would be Nix, Valbuena or Orlando. For the record, I think Valbuena has the nicest smile:
(Dan Mendlik/Cleveland Indians)
3. Need to wear shades...
...because the future is bright. Al Ciammiacella's top 50 prospect rundown over at The Cleveland Fan is definitely worth more than a passing look. Tony Lastoria's on-going rundown is also a great source of information, including videos of most of the Tribe's top prospects.
4. A crow, a buck, and a guy named Zeke walk into a bar...
The most significant other positional battle in camp figures to be the reserve outfielder role. Assuming Choo, Brantley and Kearns make it through camp healthy, they seem like locks. I am going to guess that Sizemore starts the season with a little extra time in Goodyear, meaning the Indians will need a reserve outfielder, and presumably one who can occasionally man CF. For this we have the incumbent, Trevor Crowe, and the two newcomers, Ezequiel Carrera and Travis Buck. Shelley Duncan is also an outfielder, of course, but should he make the team it will be in a different capacity. The best season, statistically, from each of the three candidates are listed below:
- Travis Buck: 2007 - MLB, .288/.377/.474, .347 BABIP (2011 Pecota -.238/.315/.368)
- Ezequiel Carrera: 2009 - AA, .337/.441/.416, .411 BABIP (2011 Pecota - .246/.312/.319)
- Trevor Crowe: 2008 - AA/AAA, .302/.381/.485, .360 BABIP (2011 Pecota - .246/.305/.341)
Buck has the best power potential and has achieved success at the highest level. But he is also most removed from that success, owing to injuries over the past several seasons. In fact, Buck has never shown any sustained period of health. Carrera has the best pure speed and on-base abilities (and defense, likely), but is the most likely to be completely mastered at the plate. Crowe says his elbow was hurting him from the All-Star break onwards last season, but now feels great after off-season surgery. I'd be more encouraged if July wasn't his best hitting month in Cleveland. My vote would be to give the spot to Buck if he is healthy, with Carrera at AAA. If Buck isn't healthy, I say push Carrera to the bigs even if he is used primarily as a defensive replacement and pinch-runner (he's already on the 40-man roster).
5. A fifth of whiskey and a fifth starter
Suddenly, the imminent signing of Jeremy Kevin Bonderwood seems less imminent. Antonetti as quoted this week as saying, "We plan to proceed with the guys we have in camp. If an opportunity presents itself, we'll take a look at it." I've already talked about Huff, I can't imagine there is much to say about Anthony Reyes, and Tomlin and Gomez are what they are (though I think Gomez has more potential to surprise with this upside). Looking at the 40-man roster, Zach McAllister and Corey Kluber appear slated for Columbus to start the season, leaving Joe Martinez, acquired from the Pittsburgh Pirates back on January 4th for a PTBNL or cash. Martinez, most famous for breaking his skull on a Mike Cameron line drive while pitching for the Giants, seems like depth starter material or a possible bullpen conversion if he remains on the 40-man. Comparing the group ("m" indicates minor league numbers):
| mERA |
mK/9 |
mBB/9 |
ERA |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
|
| Huff |
3.27 |
7.7 |
2.4 |
5.84 |
4.4 |
3.2 |
| Reyes |
3.55 |
9.3 |
2.3 |
5.12 |
6.3 |
3.7 |
| Gomez |
4.24 |
6.6 |
2.9 |
4.68 |
5.3 |
3.4 |
| Tomlin |
3.20 |
7.8 |
1.9 |
4.56 |
5.3 |
2.3 |
| McAllister |
3.51 |
7.0 |
2.4 |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
| Kluber |
4.24 |
9.3 |
3.5 |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
| Martinez |
3.58 |
7.3 |
2.0 |
6.16 |
5.1 |
3.8 |
Given his durability (180 IP last season) and ability to throw strikes, I see Tomlin as the favorite for this spot. Reyes, if he looks healthy, would seem to be the wildcard. The total collapse in K/BB numbers for all of these guys between the minors and majors should be a warning to us all. The talent gap between AAA and the big leagues is considerable.
6. Bullpen scrabble
Chris and Raffy Perez, Joe Smith, Tony Sipp seem like bullpen locks. Jensen Lewis, Vinnie Pestano, Frank Herrmann and Aaron Laffey seem to be the most likely players to join that group when camp breaks. When you factor in NRIs however, the different permutations of bullpen options becomes too large to ponder. So instead, I offer you a ranking of the Indians relief pitchers (currently on the 40-man) based on the Scrabble score of their last name:
- Judy, Laffey & the Perez bros. - 15 points
- Herrmann - 13 points
- Smith - 10 points
- Pestano - 9 points
- Lewis & Sipp - 8 points
- Todd - 6 points
Bonus minor league scrabble!
- Bryson - 11 points
- Stowell & Putnam - 10 points
- Espino - 8 points
Even Scrabble is disappointed by Jess Todd.
7. Bonus shot for luck:
A cheatsheet shot of Goodyear, for those of you heading down to AZ to catch the Tribe. If you find yourself wondering why the Indians/Reds facility is in the middle of nowhere, head East and North.
(courtesy of Google Earth)
When all is said and done, I'd be happy with the roster projections Castro put together yesterday.
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Also, in an attempt to steal my thunder, the Cleveland Indians announced their very own six-pack offering this afternoon
The beers pictured on this post are two of the worst in human existence.
by JulioBernazard on Feb 18, 2011 11:10 AM EST up reply actions
Of all the recurring features on this site, the Early Weekend Six-Pack holds a special place in my heart. When I was just trying to figure out what the big deal about LGT was, it was one of the things that kept me coming back to read and finally post.
Come on, four billion!
You’d do that for me? That’s the service that keeps people coming back to LGT long after the trendy crowd has left Fear The Sword.
The persuasion is not inherent in the lobster.
I wish I had a picture of the Chief Wahoo pumpkin my wife carved out for me back in our days of living in Western New York. Looked exactly like the Chief. Your avatar is great.
by kennesawmountainwahoo on Feb 18, 2011 4:34 PM EST up reply actions
The problem is that each players is fairly limited at this point.
-Cabrera has played almost entirely his whole career at Short. I am inclined to put him at UI, but I like his bat, solid speed, and clutch ability. I would like him at 3rd, but I dunno if he has the arm for 3rd, or the range for short anymore.
-Nix has been pretty awful whenever made to play 3B. Unless he is working a lot in the offseason on this, I want him nowhere near there. Its 2nd Base or down to AAA with him.
-I feel the same with Valbuena as with Nix. However, Nix definitely wins out with offense.
-I really like Donald too at 2B. Obviously, the problem is too many 2Bs
-Cord Pelps has nice offense, but like everyone else, hasn’t really played much 3B.
there are 2 scenarios I like;
a) Nix improves his fielding at the hot corner. He has the natural arm to be solid there, maybe he just needs more experienc
b) Chisenhall emerges. Yeah, thats how down I am on everyone else.
I guess if I had to say, I would go
3B- Nix
2B-Cabrera (suits his limited SS range and limited SS arm)
UI-Donald
AAA-Valbuena
AAA-Phelps
I really don’t like this, but I think its the best option. You also get the best offensive players out there.
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
My preference would be:
3B – Donald (grooming for future super-UI role)
2B – Phelps (see what we’ve got for 1/2 – 3/4 of a season – ie. until Kip is ready)
UI – Cabrera (steady hands to fill in when either of the above slips or ACab needs a break – thus potential regular playing time)
Nix – AAA (possible cut)
Valbuena – AAA (possible cut)
I just want to believe.
I would like that honestly. Like I pointed out at the bottom, I really don’t like it, but I feel like its the best option at this point. Spring training might change things, but I am not sure if phelps is totally ready to play in the majors (though he had a good season in c’bus).
I think a lot of this will depend on what we see in spring training.
-How does Pehlps hit mlb pitching?
-who gets reps at 3B? Donald or Nix? and which one looks better defensively?
I honestly wouldn’t mind is nix was cut. If they think donald can play 3B at least as well as him, I am for it. Never been enamored with him on offense and he was not at all good defensively at 3B
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
Cabrera:
You like his bat (2010 OPS: .657 – in NL hitters park no less) and his “clutch ability” (Career OPS with bases empty/men on base/men in scoring position: .718/.716/.665)
Yikes
“Liking his bat” is very relative. If we had anyone who was proven or competent, I would say he should be a UI. The problem is, Donald is a .245 hitter with an average eye and no pop, valbuena can’t hit, and Nix is a guy with pop but with no contact.
I would like to put faith in Chisenhall or Phelps, but that would be way to optimistic imo.
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
I think this would be an appropriate place to invoke the “average age curve”. Donald hit .253 last year with .125 ISO in his first 296 ML at bats so I think it would be very inaccurate to call him definitively anything at all, let alone a “.245 hitter with no pop.”
With O. Cabrera, we are talking about a 36 yr old SS with already declining badly #’s. If he performs better than his last 3 yrs at all, it can not be anything that the Indians take credit for “knowing” would happen.
yeah. I am not going to dispute the fact that he is a pedestrian offensive player. However, Valbuena was just horrific last year at the plate, and Jayson Nix is marginally better than Donald (2 points higher OPS+, a bit more power) but Donald has more speed on the basepaths. I would say Donald is a bit better of a fielder than nix.
Really, between all 3 its a tossup but its all about opinions on which ones will be better and overall preferences as a player.
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
This is my belief too. going on stats alone its somewhat of a tossup but I am more willing to put my eggs in the Donald basket.
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
I really don’t get what you mean.
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
When a guy has a short major league track record and a long minor league track record, the minor league numbers are far more predictive of his future big-league performance.
Long live LaPorta!
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Feb 23, 2011 3:49 PM EST up reply actions
My main point was that I think its inaccurate to look at all the candidates and assume they will all perform exactly as they have in the past. I’d say Donald is the most likely to progress as a player and perform better than in the past, followed by Valbuena…. and then farr, farrrr down the line, Nix and really no sane evaluator would expect Cabrera to perform any better than he has recently.
Changing subjects slightly, the more I look at the situation, I’m beginning to see less and less of a purpose for Nix here. It seems as if the organization is trying to fit him into the Casey Blake mold of career path/usefulness going forward and I don’t see it. He’s beginning to be one of those guys that is just blocking the maturation and evaluation of young guys and giving only marginal power upside in return… one of those, ‘take us from 76 to 77 wins’ type of players that really do nothing to get us closer to a championship.
Nix has power, and the Indians are prudent to see if he can play. Look at what he did for the White Sox.
Nix with White Sox:
.214/.297/.382…. so good that they cut him… what exactly am I supposed to be looking at?
Well, OK then.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Feb 22, 2011 6:04 PM EST up reply actions
I agree that Donald is the most likely to progress. Even if Valbuena progresses some, he still may not be a viable option considering how bad he was last year. I was not going 100% on performance last year, but trying to use it as part of a predictor for 2011 production
I do also agree that it seems like Nix doesn’t really have a place.
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
The 4th column is cut off after the names for me. I can’t really tell 1/4 of your alignments.
I just want to believe.
Strangely enough, it expands compared to the scrunched up view on the main page. It cuts off into the Virgin Atlantic ad to the right.
I just want to believe.
I’m not sure if this would help, but try switching to “wide” view using the box in the upper right.
"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway
by notthatnoise on Feb 18, 2011 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
Willie Martinez. Where is Willie Martinez?
by Bogalusa Bomber on Feb 18, 2011 7:41 PM EST up reply actions
Donald should start somewhere, wherever he’s best defensively. He’s being underrated on here
by Gradyforpresident on Feb 20, 2011 10:02 AM EST reply actions
If not start, at least be a UI that plays 100-110+ games and gets 450+ PAs. Basically what he did last season, but expanded so he is on the field more.
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
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