Mike Chernoff's SABR Day Thoughts on the Tribe
by kanka on Feb 2, 2011 4:36 PM EST
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PrintThis past Saturdelqanday was SABR Day, and Cleveland's Jack Graney Chapter celebrated with a meeting in the press room of Progressive Field. One of the star guest speakers was Mike Chernoff, the new Indians Assistant General Manager. Chernoff is a 2003 Princeton graduate, where he studied economics and played baseball.
Chernoff's dad was in the back of the room; father and son have played a game of catch monthly for as long as the two remember. The elder Chernoff works in the Mets radio team, and the younger's career began as an intern with that very same team. Since then, Mike has worked his way up from Indians intern to Indians AGM. Here are his thoughts on this year's team.
- The front office expects to contend and suprise ahead of schedule, like it did in 2003 and 2004.
- Carlos Santana will start season, and in fact should be ready ready at start of spring training.
- Chernoff compared Matt LaPorta to the Cliff Lee of 2007-2008 - a player struggling with injuries and inconsistencies who spent some time in the minors and was poised for a breakout.
- Because of all the time Asdrubal Cabrera lost to injury last year, his return is like a "new acquisition" for the team.
- Other teams call all the time for Michael Brantley as their CF.
- Shin-Soo Choo is an elite RF, but "don't tell his agent I said that."
- Austin Kearns was re-signed as insurance in case Grady Sizemorecan't play every day at the start of the season. (Kearns would play left field with Brantley moving to center.
- Jason Donald and Jayson Nix are in the mix at third, with Luis Valbuena at second.
- Second and third base are the biggest holes right now, but also the biggest positions of strength in the future.
- It would be unrealistic to start Lonnie Chisenhall in the majors without more time in AAA, but Chis may prove the team wrong in spring training.
- Understandably, the team gets a lot of calls about Chisenhall.
- Cord Phelps is ahead of Jason Kipnis right now, but both have similar star power.
- The second half of the season was much better than the first for the Indians, especially the pitching.
- Fausto Carmona, Justin Masterson, Mitch Talbot, and Carlos Carrasco are set in the rotation. The fifth spot will go to one of the guys from last year, or a free agent.
- The Indians have 10-12 available bullpen arms who are young but good.
- The front office, who has struggled putting together an effective bullpen in the past, has determined that they need to get tons of guys with flexibility (options), so they can swap parts in and out as needed.
- Bryce Stowell, Josh Judy, and Zach Putnam are all candidates for a bullpen spot.
- Travis Hafneris still productive, but not a "seven day" (everyday) player. He's most effective against righthanders, so hopefully playing Pronk against righties and Kearns/Shelley Duncan against lefties will give the combined production of a top five DH.
- Mike Hargrovewill have a variety of roles with the Tribe, on the field and off. For example, he will be an instructor at spring training. He also will serve as a liason between the front office and fans, both by spreading the team's message to the fans, and by relaying fan feedback to the team.
- For what it's worth, the business and baseball departments are now more closely tied to each other.
Chernoff also fielded a few questions:
- A SABR member asked why Manny Actaseemed so distant and reserved. Chernoff was a bit surprised, as he sees the manager as an open door guy with the team and the community. As an example, Chernoff noted that Acta is often out on the field with a fungo bat in his hands. Personally, I'd side with Chernoff on Acta - an aloof manager wouldn't be out enjoying Snow Days.
- Another question was asked about Valbuena. Chernoff didn't sugar coat things, saying that, "It's not like you're sitting there saying he's terrible, and I'm sitting there saying, 'Oh wow this is great!'" He said that the team sees a player that is still young and has tools, with a good minor league track record and one option left. If they get decent defense and good power out of him, he'll stick around. If he plays like last year, he won't just be off the field, he'll be off the team.
- Someone asked about Hafner's shoulder. Chernoff said that the shoulder is in the best condition it's been in in three to four years, but Hafner still needs to work on it constantly.
- There was a very good question about psychological tools employed by the team. The Indians do have an on-staff psychologist that meets with the players regularly. Scouts notice players' makeup on and off the field. And all potential draftees are given a psychological test.
- One questioner mentioned the concerns about Drew Pomeranz's throwing motion. Chernoff said that because of the injury risks, the Indians may consider fast-tracking Pomeranz to maximize what they can get out of him.
- Alex White is the farthest along of any minor league pitcher. He'll start in AAA, but may reach the majors this season.
Chernoff kept referring to the Indians as a small market team, so there were a few questions about that.
- He said that the mid-90s were essentially a perfect storm of consequences (my words, not his) that allowed the team to have such a high payroll. The stadium was brand new, the Browns were gone, and Cleveland's economy was doing well. Now, the stadium is one of the oldest in the league (There were cherry pickers parked outside the stadium in several locations for renovations), the Browns are once again the most popular team in Cleveland, and the economy hasn't been great for anyone in the area.
- The quote of the day from Chernoff: "Really? The Angels can just take on the entire Vernon Wells contract?"
- Someone asked how the Indians can go from small market to middle market. Chernoff really didn't have an answer, except to say that if the Indians aren't bringing in money in ticket sales, they can't put that money into payroll. He did say the team was working to figure out why Cleveland finished behind teams like Pittsburgh and Kansas City last year when the Tribe has had more recent success than those two clubs.
- Chernoff said the best way to handle free agent attrition was to focus on trade returns and diversify the "portfolio" of players gotten back. He pointed out that Casey Blake was signed as a 29-year-old minor league free agent, and the Indians eventually got Carlos Santana back for him.
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One questioner mentioned the concerns about Drew Pomeranz’s throwing motion. Chernoff said that because of the injury risks, the Indians may consider fast-tracking Pomeranz to maximize what they can get out of him.
I find this to be the most interesting comment. I talked last year a bit about a more aggressive organizational approach towards pitchers. It’ll be interesting to see how Pomeranz gets handled in 2011.
I’m excited knowing that Haf’s shoulder is feeling good. If this guy can relax and stop overcompensating, he can flat hammer the ball. He can carry this team on his back.
You didn't get me down, Ray.
He can carry this team on his back.
That probably wouldn’t be good for his shoulder
by APV on Feb 2, 2011 5:52 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
I am never, ever getting excited about Hafner until we trade him.
by Jay on Feb 2, 2011 8:50 PM EST up reply actions
I’m making a mental note of this comment. I sincerely hope you regret saying it. Pronk of ‘05-’07 may be gone, but Hafner can still be a productive member of this team.
I just want to believe.
Lots of good stuff here. Thanks for posting. If the Indians are ahead of schedule to contend, it begs the question: what was the original schedule?
by afh4 on Feb 2, 2011 6:15 PM EST via mobile reply actions
The Indians have been in a drop/add period for about 3 years
by APV on Feb 2, 2011 8:26 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
I think the goal this time was 2012. The last time the team rebuilt, their goal year was 2005. But in 2004 they won 80 games and finished 3rd in the Central. I assume the team is looking for similar results this year – just enough to prove that it’s reasonable to think they will push for the division title next year.
Don’t want to parse your recollections too hard (and you sharing them is very appreciated) but if 2012 was the contention goal then surprising would mean contending in 2011.
I think the fact that they have these internal schedules is…a bit odd. I can’t decide how I feel about it.
If the team can’t compete every year (as ownership claims), at least it’s nice to know there’s a plan in place. In this case, I’m assuming that plan was to compete one more time before Sizemore’s contract ran out. Having Santana, Kipnis, Chisenhall, and White in the bigs next year (presumably) will certainly help.
“Claims?” Is there some alternative theory under which a club like the Indians can compete every year?
Sizemore was a six-win player for a few years, and I’m sure the Indians felt a few years ago that they would manage more than one contending season out of that run. It’s rarely well advised, however, to build a club’s plans around the contract of any one player — and in any event, Sizemore is no longer one of those players.
I agree that the Indians really can’t compete every year, but I didn’t want to start a firestorm by just coming out and saying it.
That was just my guess as to the Indians plan. Maybe it was a few years ago, when Sizemore was still an effective player. I’m no expert, which is why Chernoff is the 29-year-old AGM and I’m the 29-year-old bank IT guy.
I think the Tribe had the right plan, and should have competed in 2006, as well as 2008. That would have been a four year run.
Cleveland will always have a thin margin for error and three things killed it. Injuries to key players, no infusion of impact players from the draft and underperformance from players from which we couldn’t afford underperformance. Injuries included Hafner, Adam Miller, Sizemore and Victor a little too. Cleveland can’t afford to have it’s impact players get hurt or underperform. I’m under no illusions. I think it will always be that way. We will never have the resources to compensate for that.
Just for kicks, imagine if Hafner stays the 2005 Haftner, Sizemore doesn’t get hurt, Lee performs in 2006 and 2007 like he did in 2008 (why not, no excuse other than he didn’t get it), and Adam Miller became the stud we thought. (Really, was it too much to ask for ONE draft choice to pan out in ten years. Not asking for a lot!). Give me a pass on the crappy bullpens, I’m on a roll…
That’s why I kinda sorta think we could be pretty good if we just get lucky on the re-emergence of talent. Once a team puts three plus impact hitters in a line-up, the world changes.
With a non-producing draft, the holes piled up. If holes can pile up.
by Bogalusa Bomber on Feb 9, 2011 4:54 AM EST up reply actions
We don’t have it currently, but it’s not out of question that one of our prospects turns into an impact hitter.
I don’t think it’s too hard to imagine LaPorta becoming an impact hitter, though I wouldn’t bank on it at this point obviously. Then one of Sizemore or Cabrera make up the other .5 of a hitter.
"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway
Please Lord, let the the 28 year old Sizemore turn into the 25 year old Sizemore. He’s not old, he’s just been injured. I’m not asking Trevor Crowe to turn into Sizemore, just Sizemore into Sizemore.
by Bogalusa Bomber on Feb 9, 2011 5:24 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t necessarily think it will happen, I just wouldn’t be too surprised if it did.
"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway
I would be surprised if Sizemore returns to form—he’s quite a few years removed from it. Cabrera less so. LaPorta, who knows what’s up with him? Sometimes I think his hips will keep him from doing anything.
Quite a few years? He’s exactly 28 months removed from it.
Grady’s performance problems have been correlated 100% with injury issues. Those issues are serious and not to be waved off as irrelevant, that much is certain. But if he can overcome those issues, there is zero reason to think a player won’t perform just as well at 28 as he did at 25 — if not better.
I won’t be the least bit surprised if he’s a six-win player (prorated) for the second half of the 2011 season.
I don’t intend to revive a Sizemore argument, but here is a reason to think a player won’t perform just as well at 28 as he did at 25: he plays a physically demanding position and has been beset by various injuries over the past two seasons. His career year occurred when he was 23. The trend has not been good.
I don’t agree that Sizemore’s performance problems correlate exactly with injury. He started swinging for the fences. His doubles have dropped, and his hitting deteriorated.
And, besides, his knee injury is serious. I don’t think he’ll be much in 2011, and by 2012 he’ll be 29, more than three years removed from glory.
To Jay’s point, I don’t think age is an issue, but you’re right, Grady became a dead pull hitter (and a less valuable offensive player) before his injury.
But the fact is he lost a year right when he needed to make some adjustments. He’s young enuf where he can pick up where he left off, but nobody knows what he’ll bring this year, including him.
It’s a big question mark in the clubhouse going into 2011 – Acta and the players are looking to Grady as a former performance leader, and nobody knows how its going to play out.
I’m sorry, but this “career year at 23” trope is tired and unsupported by the facts.
Here’s the most reasonable way to characterize the fluctuation in Sizemore’s performance from age 22 to 25: Insignificant. The differences in his performance are simply tiny in the scope of normal seasonal fluctuation, for any player at any stage of their career.
So and possibly mcrose have a highly unscientific narrative about how he’s changed his swing, and the raw data appears to support your presupposition. You see a trend, and you think he changed the way he was swinging.
Here’s what I see: .334, .339, .333, .290. That’s his BAbip in those four seasons — note the drop in Grady’s luck just when you say his swing changed. And this: 123, 134, 131, 137. That’s his wRC+ in those four seasons.
In short: With fluctuation in the results this minor, it is far more reasonable to assume that Grady’s hitting ability was essentially the same for all four seasons — rather than your idea, which is that one of the best all-around athletes in the game was going downhill from age 22 to age 25.
In shorter: Your theory is deeply at odds with historical trends, and bears a high burden of proof, and you don’t have the data.
And finally: This idea of “removed from glory” is ridiculous even in concept. Grady is the glory. He is not closer to it or farther from it. It’s not like he needs to get healthy and then go find the glory somewhere that he left it, at some enormous distance which you somehow measure in years. (Is the light of his age 23 glory going to be six light-years away once he turns 29? Is that how this space-time glory-distance thing works?)
If he can get healthy — again, a huge “if” — he’s a great ballplayer in his physiological prime, and the results more than likely will bear that out.
by Jay on Feb 10, 2011 8:55 AM EST up reply actions 5 recs
• You may be tired of the career-year trope, and I’m kind of weary of it myself, but the facts support it: Sizemore’s best season to date has been 2006. 2008 came close, but no cigar. (RC/g was 7.8 in 2006 and 7.4 in 2008.) Are these numbers close? Yes. Insignificant? Maybe. Will he surpass this? Perhaps. But 7.8 is higher than 7.4. Obviously, nobody knows what will happen in the future, but when I look at centerfielders who hit well in their 30s (Jimmy Wynn, Bobby Murcer, Vernon Wells) none of them had Sizemore’s history of injury.
• Historical trends: look at Grady’s doubles. Sizemore won’t hit 50+ doubles again. Look at hits. Plate appearances. There is a historical trend and it does not suggest improvement.
• I will acknowledge that I have embraced a nonscientific narrative about Sizemore’s hitting. When I look at the hit charts from 2006 and 2009, I see patterns, and I am influenced by what I want to believe. I suspect that you, too, as a scientist, proceed from a certain narrative (i.e., Sizemore shall rise again).
• Did Jhonny Peralta have his career year at age 23?
• Sizemore is not “one of the best all-around athletes in the game.” He was in 2005 and 2006 but he sure isn’t any longer. I believe your fandom colors your thinking here.
• It’s weird to disavow his injury by saying “if he’s healthy.” That’s the whole point: it’s likely he won’t be healthy ever again. In the old days his knee injury would have ended his career. You can’t negate the accumulative effect of injury on his play.
• “Glory” is a rhetorical word. I’m betting Grady won’t become an impact-hitter for the Indians. The longer he goes without putting up big numbers, the less likely he will put up big numbers.
Everywhere on Grady’s body there’s an angle, Jhonny has a gentle arc. I don’t think the two are even remotely comparable cases.
Come on, four billion!
by Joel D on Feb 10, 2011 11:26 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Must be?
The guy is a third-round draft pick. Would it be so shocking if he became a star?
The statement can also be taken as a moderate estimation of Kipnis’ ceiling. Remember, one of these guys is a natural infielder, and it’s not Kipnis.
by Jay on Feb 2, 2011 8:58 PM EST up reply actions
I believe it was meant as a joke. Surprising revelation, though. Cord is 6’2", Kipnis is 5’10".
by APV on Feb 2, 2011 9:08 PM EST up reply actions
He did say the team was working to figure out why Cleveland finished behind teams like Pittsburgh and Kansas City last year when the Tribe has had more recent success than those two clubs.
The Princeton boys are a little out of touch with their market. The team has done a lousy job of marketing itself to Clevelanders. They’ve allowed the narrative to be about the Dolans, about poor-mouthing, about hand-wringing. And then they expect their market to understand. Be rational, people! Shapiro is no Bill Veeck. Bruce Drennan is more in touch with Cleveland than the FO.
Based upon conversations I’ve had with Hoynes and others, the media is not receptive to anything other that this gibberish. Pluto gets it but nobody else does.
Yeah, but it is beyond the media, it’s the marketing itself. The media lazily (though probably smartly from an economic sense) just panders to its perceived market and fashions its focus on what “stokes the fire” amongst its readership. The PD has this issue up and down its sections, not only the sports sections.
I was about to post the same thing. The marketing of the team and it’s players (unless they simply just gave up on such a thing) has been pretty terrible. If the statement is true that they are “working to figure out” why they ended up so low in attendance, than that just furthers the point that they are out of touch with understanding how to create positive buzz around the team.
For me, signing a Buck instead of a Milledge is one of many examples of not “understanding how to create positive buzz around the team.”
Yeah, I know, but that’s what we’re left with isn’t it? Are we supposed to get excited about Hannahan and Buck? And also, I’d like to have more guys on the team who don’t remind me of Trot Nixon. Admittedly, my Milledge crush is borne on the wings of limited viewing opportunities and a very promising age 22 season that I haven’t been able to shake.
Don’t underestimate what trading away 2 Cy Young award winners in their prime can do to the casual fan’s morale. Fair or unfair, I think the trades, and the lack of young, exciting major league ready talent they received in return, have a lot to do with the poor attendance.
Also, the Dolans are cheap.
by millionairesrow on Feb 3, 2011 3:17 PM EST up reply actions
Chernoff said that because of the injury risks, the Indians may consider fast-tracking Pomeranz to maximize what they can get out of him.
Um, wow?
Yeah, what the heck does that mean? They think he’s going to have a short career so promote him as fast as possible? Any attempt to alter a guy’s development path based on a prediction of future health or injury seems inherently flawed to me.
This is a sabermetric supported idea. Whereas position players get better during early years of development, pitchers stuff tends to start off at its best and degrade over time. They might add a new pitch, refine a pitch, or learn how to pitch better, but their basic stuff can really just get worse with usage. So for pitchers, the quicker you can get their stuff to the majors the better off you probably are. For the Indians, Adam Miller is the best example of this. He probably had a quality enough fastball and slider to be in the bigs by his second full year in the system….but the Indians worked to perfect his style and give him an offspeed pitch in the minors. Then he imploded.
by APV on Feb 2, 2011 8:29 PM EST up reply actions
Then it should be applied evenly across the board, right? I just don’t think any prediction of a particular guy’s longevity holds much water. Not enuf to stick him in the big leagues before he’s ready. If anything, it would add to the likelihood of injury if his mechanics aren’t smoothed out yet and he starts overthrowing to compensate.
Then it should be applied evenly across the board, right?
Only if you think the team doesn’t believe it can draw any relationship between individual mechanics, body type, history and health.
by APV on Feb 2, 2011 9:48 PM EST up reply actions
It’s possible the FO learned something the way the Reyes story played out. The Cards turned and burned him probably because they profiled him to be the type of pitcher whose value would flame out quickly. A team like Cleveland that depends on restocking by trading established vets before they go FA, cannot maximize value in that way with a pitcher whose value has a likelihood to flame out prematurely.
You didn't get me down, Ray.
Pomz has yet to throw a professional pitch in a game. I hope they’re smart enuf to realize any particular development path needs a bit more evaluation at this point.
I can understand both Chernoff and the rest of the Indian’s brass saying their #1 draft choice could very well be on the fast track once he starts his pro career, just like White the year before. To chalk it up to concerns about his future health just strikes me as a little off base. As in premature.
Just now, I dug in to some comments from observers of Pomeranz"s motion. There isn"t a consensus whether his motion would lead to arm problems. The pitch in question, his knuckle curve out pitch, has so many differences to more orthodox curve ball approaches that it may lead to less stress on his arm than conventional curve ball releases. This could be much ado about nothing.
You didn't get me down, Ray.
Pomz himself says he throws it more like a fastball, that he doesn’t use the pronation (or whatever grip/motion it is) that is usually associated with bending a pitch.
My immediate reaction was, “cool, less stress on his arm”. Not that I would know how much stress his usual motion causes…
And I guess that’s why Chernoff’s statement stood out. How can there be any consensus on the guy when our own coaches, at any level, aren’t even familiar with him yet?
It’s not clear how much effect any team ever really has on any pitcher’s longevity.
That being the case, you have to utilize them while you can.
I am DEEPLY skeptical that any organization has the ability to create the kind of longevity that eventually results in a Colon/Sabathia/Lee trade. I think you have to get lucky in terms of longevity, even to the extent that your scouting is delivering on pure quality of play.
They try to correct mechanics all the time when they think its detrimental or not efficient, or both. And they’ll spend a good bit of time doing that if they think it’ll help, holding a pitcher at a certain level, or making him concentrate on certain pitches.
This is kind of the reverse scenario we’re talking about, pushing a good pitcher thru the system to “get all they can out of him”?
Adam’s right; we’ve been talking about this for 2-3 years already.
You don’t play games with promoting pitchers or holding back their service time. The attrition is too high.
by Jay on Feb 2, 2011 8:59 PM EST up reply actions
It sounds like the Indians are making an internal valuation regarding a guys likelihood to run into injury problems.
by APV on Feb 2, 2011 9:09 PM EST up reply actions
When drafting, ‘conservative’ teams focus on college pitchers rather than high school pitchers partly because they’re closer to the injury nexus, right? Given that assumption, Chernoff’s comment about Pomeranz strikes me as bizarre. If the FO views him as a greater-than-average injury risk, why draft him in the first place? Obviously his upside could outweigh the injury risk, but you’re taking a college pitcher to try to minimize the injury risk (partly). Why make that comment in public, anyway?
by cleveland teamer on Feb 3, 2011 5:33 AM EST up reply actions
I’m all for fast tracking. The only caveat being that, once they get to the majors, we don’t Dusty-Baker them.
by Bogalusa Bomber on Feb 9, 2011 5:07 AM EST up reply actions
Is it realistic to think they can fast track a SP who doesn’t have a refined off speed pitch?
by millionairesrow on Feb 3, 2011 3:19 PM EST up reply actions
I’ve been fascinated by the difference between how Cleveland handles its pitchers versus how my other favorite team, Oakland, handles its own. Oakland is very push-em-up-and-through-damn-the-consequences, while Cleveland seems to be almost overly cautious.
I wonder how a guy like, say, Rich Harden could have faired in the Indians system, you know? He made his ML debut at 20, with basically a pitch and a half, was spectacular briefly, essentially exploded into a string of injuries, and has since spent more time on the DL than in the rotation in his career. Could he have very well been Oakland’s Adam Miller?
Could he have very well been Oakland’s Adam Miller?
Total batters faced at the big-league level
Rich Harden: 3566
Adam Miller: 0
It’s an interesting question. It does seem like the Indians got caught up somewhat in the idea that they could truly manage pitching injuries, and it may be that they vastly overestimated how possible that is, and in particular how many marginal wins you could get out of that approach.
Shapiro made a major initiative of revamping the club’s medical processes back around 2004. It’s reasonable to think they needed 5-6 years to figure out if there was any serious flaw in their assumptions. They have had some success in this area.
Thank you. I was just sitting listening to Chernoff talk, and once I realized the wealth of information he was giving out, I picked up a pen and started writing as fast as I could.
Yes! Thank you. Why can’t Hoynsie do that? Your overview was really illuminating.
by Bogalusa Bomber on Feb 9, 2011 5:09 AM EST up reply actions
We’ve got a small fleet of all-glove 3rd basemen in the lower minors. Why not install one of them at 3rd until Chisenhall is ready. I don’t think you ever see this kind of thing any more, but, aside from 40 man considerations I’m not sure why. Is it that the team is worried that you might ruin that player’s chance of “developing” an offensive game? We used to see all-glove guys in the majors all the time, although usually (exclusively?) at shortstop, players who eventually even developed adequate offensive games in the majors— Vizquel, Ozzie, a host of other shortstops over the years.
An all-glove guy in the minors may not be serviceable in the majors yet. Especially at 3B.
I think you also well underestimate the effect on the rest of the team and organization if the front office allows a guy to stay in the lineup batting .150 or whatever, and give a major promotion to someone clearly not based on merit.
Also, those guys you are probably talking about, Bellows and Urshela, have value in and of themselves that you are likely flushing down the toilet by rushing them through the system.
Is that necessarily true? Ozzie Smith OPS’d .623, .522, .589, .549 his first four years in the league before progressing to his eventual level around .700. He jumped from lower A to the majors.
Vizquel: .534, .593, .593 (age 22-24) before making his offensive jump.
I don’t know that Asdrubal’s career really suffered for being in AAA a year earlier than many would have liked.
I know comparing Bellows and Urshela to these three is ridiculous. I’m just saying that other defensive players have been brought up early and learned offensive skills in the majors.
Just an idea.
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