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2011 Attendance

I’m certainly not an economist or statistician, and I don’t have a thesis question in mind here. Rather, my intent is for these graphs to be a starting point for a discussion.

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It doesn’t take an economist to tell that when the team wins more often, more fans will attend. This didn’t happen last year, for whatever reason. The Indians’ record improved slightly, but fewer fans turned out (just under 1.4 million).

PECOTA thinks that, as of today, the Indians will win 74 games in 2011, a 5 win improvement from the year before. Now, I’m aware of the problems with using simple linear regression to predict what a 5 win improvement would mean for attendance, but I’m doing it anyway. The sellouts of a decade ago skew the results, but these do suggest a latent enthusiasm for the team; there are exogenous factors at work that might also improve things, so I’m keeping that 2001 data. 

This simple regression plots us at around 1.95 million fans in 2011 (the r-squared is, like, around .5). Yes, I think 1.9 million is a little high too, but a small bounce-back wouldn’t surprise me. I’m predicting  1.7 million attendees, and I'm completely making that up.

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Attendance elsewhere in the division is somewhat cyclical, but trending upward. The attendance trend for the Tribe is not good, and we’re subject to wild deviations from the mean.

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The Great Recession didn’t affect Cleveland’s other clubs too much at the box office, but the Tribe sure took a beating. I wish I had the time to adjust these figures for the relative costs to fans, which vary considerably between the different sporting events.

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This is strictly an estimate—my estimate! Be very, very skeptical of this graph, which is for discussion purposes only. I obtained ticket cost data from various internet sources, like ballparks.com and cleveland.com, and my results were incomplete, so I had to guess. The Cavaliers did pretty well in recent years, and although they sell fewer tickets (only 41 home games), they've tended to sell for 250% more on average (although the secondary market activities around Cavs tickets indicates that these are incredibly overpriced and due for a correction next season).

Clearly there are other revenues streams for the three clubs, but I think of tickets sold as a fair proxy for fan interest. Is it crazy to expect there be a shifting of fan interest this season? One of these clubs is due for a shock, and it isn’t the Indians. It isn’t the Browns, either.

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Cleveland is and always will be a football town.

I remember reading somewhere that the Indians are in the market for the “discretionary” or “fun money” and not the actual budget money from the household.

The Once and Future King

by FlaGators on Feb 21, 2011 10:58 PM EST reply actions  

Not so much 1996-1999.

by PBH on Feb 22, 2011 10:26 AM EST up reply actions  

And great article as well. Very informative and it is going to be interesting to see the numbers throughout the season.

The Once and Future King

by FlaGators on Feb 21, 2011 10:59 PM EST reply actions  

Not that informative, but thanks. I should have taken another 15 minutes to do something other than a linear regression, but I was on the clock. Hopefully I can fix that tomorrow.

I think I read that the Browns’ average ticket prices are the lowest in the league, but NFL tickets seem locked in a pretty narrow band. As affordable as Indians tickets come these days, the costs to the fans are still more or less in step with the league’s poorer half.

by jhon on Feb 22, 2011 2:29 AM EST up reply actions  

I mean, the league’s less expensive half.

by jhon on Feb 22, 2011 2:30 AM EST up reply actions  

Of course, ticket prices are just one piece of attendance revenues.

by Jay on Feb 22, 2011 9:52 AM EST up reply actions  

I’ve wanted to look more closely at fan costs, since tickets are only half of the revenue picture (if that much). The volume of people who attend baseball games over the course of a season will bring in a lot of food, drink revenue relative to other kinds of events, not to mention the increased exposure for the advertisers and strategic partners. And of course I’m leaving TV, web, merchandise, apparel, and transfers out altogether. I’m hoping for some input, and about to check out Shapiro’s chat…

by jhon on Feb 22, 2011 3:51 PM EST up reply actions  

I know you know this but the key with baseball is that you bring in revenue over what you pay to staff the stadium. Part of the issue the Indians run into, I suspect, is getting a large margin on concessions when there are 12,000 people in the park. I don’t know how the gameday staff is handled but I suspect the option to tell some of them to not show up exists and is exercised regularly. I don’t know if there’s a hidden cost on that, though

by afh4 on Feb 22, 2011 4:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah. I like the comparison graph between the other Central Division teams.

But yeah, I agree.

The Once and Future King

by FlaGators on Feb 22, 2011 10:02 AM EST up reply actions  

Shapiro is on WCPN for the whole hour right now talking about these issues.

I’ll link it when they put up the podcast.

by PBH on Feb 22, 2011 9:20 AM EST reply actions  

The podcast should pop up on this page around 1pm.

This NPR, not AM sportstalk, so it’s a bit more nuanced—but only a bit.

by PBH on Feb 22, 2011 10:24 AM EST up reply actions  

it’s up now.

You are reading my signature.

by rolub on Feb 22, 2011 11:38 AM EST up reply actions  

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