In defense of David Huff
by APV on Feb 8, 2011 12:03 AM EST
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PrintLooking at our sidebar poll, I see David Huff is the pitcher we would LEAST like to see in the Indians rotation in August. I have to object. But first, it is necessary to clarify the question a bit. There are many paths by which someone could end up in (or not in) the rotation by August - injury forced necessity, solid performance, or general organizational inertia. For example, I could say I least want to see Masterson in the rotation in August because I'd rather see him in the bullpen (I don't). As it turns out my vote went to Laffey. I like Laffey and always have, but there is only so much you can expect from a guy who was never a top prospect, struggles to maintain a mid-80s fastball, and after 320 innings in the big leagues has only marginally fewer strikeouts (155) than walks (128). I'm fine with Laffey as a bullpen swingman, but if he is in the rotation the only way he has gotten there is because of injury-forced necessity. Bad for everyone.
David Huff, most likely, could only be in the rotation in August if he has done something positive. That is how bad his 2010 was. But prior to 2010, Huff, unlike Laffey, actually was a decent prospect. Huff's 2008 included excellent stops at both Akron and Buffalo. Huff was a #1 pick. Following his 2008 campaign, Kevin Goldstein had these positives to say about him:
As a left-hander with outstanding command and control, Huff is often mislabeled as a pure finesse pitcher, but his stuff is also solid. He gained velocity throughout the year and was sitting at 90-92 mph in August while touching 94 with his fastball, which he locates with the precision of a surgeon. His best secondary offering is a very good changeup that features both deception and fade, and he also mixes in both a slider and a curveball to change the batters' eye level.
Even with his struggles at the major league level in 2009 and 2010, Huff has (based on fangraphs.com data) periodically shown an above average slider (in 2009) and changeup (in 2010). Huff's slider abandoned him last year, and he eventually abandoned it (usage dropped from 11% to 6.4%). Huff's pitch f/x data suggest he lost both control and movement on the pitch in 2010. Whatever happened, both of these pitches have been and have the potential to be above average major league pitches.
But of course we all know Huff's real sin is that he is a soft-tossing lefty. Although actually he is not. Ben Lindbergh put together the 2010 data a week ago and it turns out the average major league starting LHP has an average fastball velocity of just 89.4 mph. Huff's was an above-average 90.6 in 2010, up from 90.1 in 2009. If Huff can tweek his change and slider, regain some of his (excellent) minor league control, and figure out how to use his pitches more effectively, Huff can still be a major league pitcher. If he does those things, I would welcome him in the rotation in August, not fear it. And unlike the other pitchers in the poll, Huff being in the rotation in August stands the best chance of being a positive.
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I’ve always believed Huff needs a tick or 2 more on his fastball to be effective.
His average fastball, as you said, sat at 90.6 … and his average change at 81.6 … a 9 MPH difference.
I’ve always heard the best changeup pitchers have about 10-12 mph difference. I really think Huff needs to average about 92 to maximize the use of his change.
Could it be increased velocity that is the problem? I’m not pitcher, but doesn’t increased velocity on breaking balls often cause them to flatten out more? I mean, we’re only talking a 1/2 a mph on the fastball, but maybe the increase is more significant on the slider?
"Spring Training wins are good for the soul."
At least as of a few years ago, average MLB fastball (both sides, starters + relievers) was 91 and changeup 82. So it may very well be that Huff’s 9mph separation last year didn’t put him above average, but it is hard to pin his struggles solely on that either. Tim Lincecum has one of the best changeups in the game, and while a few years ago it was 11-12 mph slower than his fastball, last year it was just 7-8 mph slower.
Yes, I certainly don’t blame everything on this … I’m guessing location was also an issue. I’d have to dive deeper into the numbers.
It’s interesting you bring up Lincecum as a comp … as his changeup was about half as effective last year as it was in 2009.
Of course, Lincecum still has 3 “plus” pitches … whereas Huff only has his change as an out pitch. That’s why I feel the separation is more important to Huff.
by FallsTribeFan on Feb 8, 2011 3:30 PM EST up reply actions
He may throw slightly harder than the average MLB lefty, but the average MLB lefty is pretty squarely in the soft-tossing range. As we all know from first-hand experience, tons of lefties with sub-par stuff get innings at the major league level.
If you don't respect Aaron Laffey, I will fight you.
Haha, not at all. I’m just vehemently anti-Huff.
If you don't respect Aaron Laffey, I will fight you.
by Cap'n Snegiryov on Feb 8, 2011 9:00 PM EST up reply actions
The problem with Huff is that even though he has average or above-average velocity, he can’t throw his fastball by anyone, and if he doesn’t hit the black, he’s in big trouble. I don’t know what it is, but either he has no movement, he doesn’t hide the ball well, or he doesn’t throw on a downward plane (probably some combination of all 3), but I think it’s less telling to look at what the radar gun says and more telling what the hitters say with their swings.
The hope is that Huff can figure things out like Cliff Lee did, and possibly become a homeless man’s version of him. Huff has a smooth delivery and is a good athlete, similar to Lee. But what Lee did was make his fastball an amazing pitch – he learned to throw it more on a downhill plane, and with great command. His velocity also improved. He went from being incredibly hittable to being very tough to hit. Look at Lee’s fastball value in 2008…34.2! Lee didn’t become the pitcher he is now because he started to throw his cutter more (as I’ve read in some posts). In fact, he didn’t throw it any more often in 2008 than before (since the trade from Cleveland, he’s thrown it a lot more).
Huff has real poor fastball values these past two years (-13.8 and -11.3), and until that changes, nothing will really improve. Because it’s tough to survive in the big leagues if you are afraid to throw a fastball. But once that improves, your other pitches improve as well. Or at least, the hitters react to them differently because they’re worried about your fastball.
So while looking at the radar gun is fine, let’s see if he can do the other things required to make his fastball less hittable.
by TribeJay on Feb 8, 2011 9:19 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
I walk by a homeless man’s version of Cliff Lee almost every week. He’s mean, and cusses everyone who walks past.
I think we’re overlooking Huff’s biggest problem, or his greatest obstacle to success. It’s his head, not the plane on which he throws or the separation of his pitches. The Tribe has made uncharacteristically negative comments about Huff’s coachability, of his willingness to follow instruction. He’s a headcase, someone who thinks he knows better. There were, as I remember, many instances last year of his following his own counsel, to no good effect.
Which is basically what we were saying about Cliff Lee in 2007. Huff never had Lee’s scouting reputation as a prospect, however, despite being a first-rounder who put up a tremendous season in Triple-A.
by Jay on Feb 9, 2011 12:13 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Great points! There is an element of his physical pitches we are not measuring – hiding the ball, release point, or plane. Lincecum was pointed out above, but regardless of any pitch details we measure, the kid is nasty to face because batters don’t “see” the ball.
I agree he may not be coachable. The point of the article is that Huff has the physical tool (or had them with potential to get them back) to cover the ante of being a good pitcher. Can he make the necessary tweaks in his delivery and mechanics to do that? It’s certainly possible, and we will have that answer in August.
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge..." C. Darwin
by Spidey on Feb 9, 2011 7:21 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
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