Game Twelve: Angels 4, Indians 3 (12 Innings)
by Ryan on Apr 14, 2011 1:36 AM EDT
in Game Recaps
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PrintTribe pitching has turned several low-scoring games into wins, covering for some offensive ills. The winning formula up to this point generally has been that the Indians score early, the starter holds that lead, and the bullpen finishes things off. The script was flipped this time, and although the Indians came back late to tie the game, the tie score was extended long enough for the Indians' weakest link to enter the game.
Carlos Carrasco pitched a fantastic game, aside from a three-batter stretch in the fourth inning. Howie Kendrick led that inning off with a double, and Asdrubal Cabrera's unforced error allowed Kendrick to score all the way from second. A quick walk followed, and then Carrasco made a mistake on the middle of the plate to Torii Hunter. An early lead thus quickly became a 3–1 deficit.
Cabrera's error was similar to Milton Bradley's wild throw earlier in the road trip. Kendrick was cruising into second when Asdrubal received the throw from the outfield. Cabrera threw to second base, perhaps intending to catch Kendrick rounding the base, but not only was the throw wild, the person covering the base (Matt LaPorta) was not expecting a throw. With no backup set up, the ball went into the first base dugout, meaning Kendrick could walk home. Two more earned runs scored in the inning, so perhaps Kendrick would have scored anyway. Or maybe Carrasco would have pitched much differently to Abreu and Hunter with a runner at second. Whatever might have followed, it was a dumb throw.
The Indians clawed back into the game over the next several innings. Michael Brantley just missed tying the game in the fifth with a run-scoring double, high off the right-center wall. Shin-Soo Choo drove in the tying run with a grounder that could have been a double play, but because pitcher Scott Downs tipped the ball with his glove, the Angels could only get one out.
That's the way the game stayed until the 12th inning. The first three relievers out of the bullpen (Sipp, Pestano, and Chris Perez) were just about perfect, but Chad Durbin got into trouble in the 12th inning and couldn't get out of it. With one out, he gave up a single to Vernon Wells. Then he made two critical mistakes: walking Alberto Callapso, and throwing a wild pitch to allow both runners to advance. Mark Trumbo was walked to set up a force at any base, but Jeff Mathis got the ball deep enough into the outfield to score the winning run on a walk-off sacrifice fly.
The middle of the Tribe order again was largely silent. Choo, Santana, and Hafner managed one hit and two walks between them; while Hafner has been at times a major offensive contributor, neither Choo nor Santana has done much at the plate in the first 12 games of the season. Though a lot of other things have gone right, these two players must to get on track in order for the Indians to keep winning.
| Highest WPA | Lowest WPA | ||
| Brantley | .433 | Durbin | -.376 |
| Sipp | .190 | Hafner | -.271 |
| Chris Perez | .182 | O Cabrera | -.242 |
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Besides the noted error by Asdrubal, there were a couple of big errors on the basepaths. Choo getting picked off of third base and Everett breaking for home on the bouncer straight to Callaspo at 3rd were both critical errors that cost us dearly in a close game. These are the little things that didn’t happen much during the winning streak.
On a positive note, I think Pestano, Perez, Sipp & Perez are becoming a borderline dominant back end of the bullpen. Add Smith to the mix to match up with tough RH batters and this is a huge area of strength.
Everett played that by the book. He stays at 3B, and there’s a runner at third with two outs. He breaks for home, either he makes it or there are runners at first and second with one out. The run expectancy jumped from 0.34 to 0.88 by breaking for home.
How does “breaking for home” fit into the expectancy table? Wouldn’t you have to know the probability of being safe at the plate to calculate the difference?
Worst case scenario, he breaks for home, gets retired, and the expectancy jumps to .88. Best (reasonable) case scenario, he scores under any set of circumstances and we have a run. Breaking for the plate at the very least makes your RE .88 and quite possibly garners an actual run.
The persuasion is not inherent in the lobster.
If Everett was so far off the bag and the ball was hit hard enough, then maybe he didn’t really have the opportunity to get back to 3rd at all.
However, this is not a situation that calls for direct reading from the run expectancy chart. There are too many variables in play to be able to declare with certainty the outcome of Adam breaking for home or getting back to the bag. With Brantley and Asdrubal running, there’s a decent chance that the DP is not successfully turned.
Also, and maybe most importantly, the game was 3-2 angels in the 8th inning. In that situation, total run expectancy may be dwarfed in importance by the value of just getting one run home.
I love run expectancy charts too, but don’t be a slave to them. They are best used when talking about walks, bunts, steals, etc. I highly doubt that Everett broke for home because he wanted to stay out of the DP. It is much more likely that I underestimated the fact that he was hung out to dry and actually didn’t have the option to get back in time.
I just don’t think it was a critical error on Everett’s part. Breaking for home there is such SOP, I doubt that was even Everett’s call to make.
I will confess that I originally didn’t even think of the run expectancy chart when evaluating Everett’s move because I doubt that was even a factor in his decision.
Is it really SOP? If you are at 3rd with no outs and bases are not loaded, I was always taught to make sure the ball at least gets to the middle infield (if they are playing back) before breaking. I would say breaking for home in that situation with the ball hit straight at 3rd base is anything but standard procedure.
With runners at first and third, it absolutely is SOP. If you stay put, they can turn a double play.
Just to make the illustration clear, the risk is that you end up with a man on third and two outs. Your chance of scoring even one run at that point is about 26% — basically, it’s the batting average of the next batter — and your chance of scoring two or more runs is basically nil.
That situation is worse than ending up with one out and men on first and second, at which point there are quite a few ways to score one run and scoring two or more is less of a remote possibility.
Yes, plus you have the possibility of extending the rundown and ending up with runners at second and third. You force them to come home with the throw, otherwise, you score the run.
I think that scenario is unlikely. The fringe positive outcome to hope for is the botched rundown, which results in at least one run and men at second and third. If the runner from third is thrown out, it’s very unlikely the runner from first ends up on third in the process. He’s just too far away.
Not that unlikely…perhaps you’ve ignored the way the Tribe has executed defensive run-downs the past few years… ;)
Those were the bad old Wedge days. Whole different team now. Completely different. Couldn’t be more different. Surprised it even has the same name. Really, really different.
by Jay on Apr 15, 2011 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
As FredOx says, Everett played that the way he should. That’s Baseball 101. The Angels just did a nice job of completing the rundown before the other runners could advance to second and third. Of course, they advanced on the wild pitch later.
Speaking of that wild pitch, Ryan, Choo’s bouncer would not have been a double play, since runners were on second and third at the time.
Everett would have been out even if he had not broken for home as the ball was hit pretty hard and he had a decent lead.
by stuart dean on Apr 14, 2011 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions
The combined line of those four guys in 21 innings
5 hits
0 runs
0 HR
6 walks
19 strikeouts
Wow.
by InfiniteMonkeyTypists on Apr 14, 2011 8:51 AM EDT up reply actions
The loss shouldn’t fall squarely on his shoulders, but how long is Durbin’s leash? I thought the signing was weird and unnecessary then, and it only perplexes me more now. All signs pointed to Herrmann going down for Smith’s return before this loss, but how many times can Durbin falter in meaningful moments? I’m not suggesting Herrmann is any better, but he’s at least younger.
I just hope Durbin is offering some quality veteran leadership to the rest of the guys. Maybe he’ll come around.
Got to actually watch this game in its entirety, and I have some thoughts…
Carrasco was really good, but from the end of the second inning through the 4th, he was awful. Manning and Underwood did a nice job of picking out that he was making an emphasis on staying closed in his delivery, which is his number one problem. Early, he was great. Then he got away from that, and it turned ugly for a time through the order. But then he got it back. Again, a very good outing.
It’s often speculated that Carrasco has a mental toughness issue in that he melts down on the mound and that creates big innings. That may be, but I also think it just might be a situation where he gets out of whack mechanically, and when he doesn’t keep that front shoulder closed, it leads to huge problems. That is more apt to happen from the stretch, where he may be rushing to the plate. You may argue that not keeping his mechanics sound is a mental issue, but I don’t think it’s exactly right to make that assumption. That’s all I’m saying.
There was a game a few years ago that Hafner struck out multiple times against Santana, all against that slider down and in. I think it was in 2007, but I don’t have the time to look for it now. Santana did the same thing against Hafner yesterday. Though he wasn’t alone, Hafner looked awful.
This bullpen might be really good. Sipp continues to look great, and he’s throwing that changeup/splitter in hitter’s counts now. And Pestano just blew people away. I don’t know that Howie Kendrick knew he was before yesterday, but he knows now.
Yeah, they should have won the game. But on the bright side, it’s nice that they went 12 games into the season before you could say that.
by TribeJay on Apr 14, 2011 8:10 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I really like this bullpen too. Everyone is playing so well.
Carrasco is looking shaky at times, but thats understandable for a 24 year old with 12 total mlb starts coming into the season. Even though he looked okay up here in 2010, I was kinda pessimistic about him. Outside of the first game, I have been very pleasantly surprised with him. An ERA under 3 the last 2 starts is still nice for a guy with Carrasco’s experience.
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
Carrasco is looking shaky at times, but thats understandable for a 24 year old with 12 total mlb starts coming into the season
Carrasco does not get enough credit for being 24 years old…
by stuart dean on Apr 14, 2011 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Different context.
Other pitchers with similar age and experience as Carrasco are described as, young, learning, unpolished or raw while Carrasco is described as immature with whisperings of mental weakness.
by stuart dean on Apr 14, 2011 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions
I know, I was being a bit absurd. But I think this "he’s only 24 business’ will get old soon.
Other guys, like Michael Pineda are younger.
Michael Pineda is going to be really, really, really good. I like Carrasco a lot but he’s not on that level.
by Gradyforpresident on Apr 14, 2011 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
It will get old if by the end of the year he is not pitching well or in 2012. I think more importantly, he has very little mlb experience and once he gains experience, its much harder to excuse age.
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
Carrasco=/=Bob Feller
We will get nowhere if we keep comparing every single pitcher to Feller
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
and how did that work out for him?
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
the point was more that Nuxhall came up at age 15, posted over a 67 ERA, and didn’t play until he was 23. That stint at 15 didn’t do him much good.
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
I knew the Nuxhall thing was sarcasm, I was trying to counter with a joke but I have no idea where fwembt was going with that.
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
Seems like Carrasco has a body language “problem” — that is, it’s not a real performance problem, it just looks like a problem — not unlike Jhonny Peralta’s. He looks shaky, but I’m not sure that he is. There’s nothing really shaky in his numbers from this game. It’s not like he’s the first guy to give up a dinger to Torii Hunter.
Yes, his performance so far has not been a huge issue. His body language looks shaky but its possible some of that could go away once he gets more adjusted to mlb batting.
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
My point is that it doesn’t really matter if his body language changes, it only matters if he’s effective.
After giving up the home run to Hunter, he retired 11 of his last 13 batters, including five groundouts and two strikeouts, allowing only two singles. If he “lost it” at some point during the game, it seems clear that he got it back. That’s my takeaway from the game, and from your assessment as well.
Which would go against some of those scouting reports. Someone with bad makeup wouldn’t be able to show that kind of resilience and fight back.
Also worked back from a few 3-0 counts
by Gradyforpresident on Apr 14, 2011 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
"I want to be playing at the end of October or the end of September -- not just at the beginning of April." —Grady
"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway
by notthatnoise on Apr 15, 2011 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
we could trade for Miguel Cabrera and we could finish your dream O Cab to A Cab to M Cab. And we could always resign Jolbert to play 3B.
I bet the Cleveland Cabreras logo would look even more racist.
"I want to be playing at the end of October or the end of September -- not just at the beginning of April." —Grady
With the caveat that it’s a Carlos Carrasco highlight film, he looked to have a decent amount of swagger coming off the mound on a couple of those swinging strikeouts. Did he look markedly different when things weren’t going well, or are people just seeing what they’re looking for?
The persuasion is not inherent in the lobster.
I never saw any video of the guy in the minors, but I’ve never noticed any body language issues or mental breakdowns since he’s been in the majors.
"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway
by notthatnoise on Apr 15, 2011 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
The positive remains the pitching (until the 12th, that is – anyone who says that Durbin is no worse than Herrmann has been watching a different set of games).
This offense, however, has a tendency to go thru multi-inning stretches of complete futility, and this game was one long example of that. Looking forward to Grady’s return – regardless of who currently looks lost at the plate, LF has been a black hole this entire young season, and will be the single biggest positional improvement available in the near term.
The single most important thing that would improve the offense is if the middle of the order would start getting on base more, and I don’t know that Grady would help much there. Getting into May and June might just be the solution to that problem, at least as far as getting better production from the middle of the order.
At least our pitching is getting us through the first part of the season without the team setting an anchor (a losing record in April) that will retard our competitiveness for the rest of the year, like the last couple of years, and I think that despite our predictable stretches of futility that is an encouraging sign.
I realize its not exactly your point, but its kind of amazing how far Grady has fallen off the radar if he’s not considered a distinct upgrade from Kearns.
As far as I can tell from reading the tea leaves, Grady will be in the lineup sometime next week.
Grady’s career OBP is .363 and Kearns is .352 (he was at .351 last season). My thinking is that Grady will take a bit of time to get back to his normal numbers. He’s obviously an offensive upgrade at some point, but maybe not right away.
But, as you noted, the real point isn’t that Grady versus Kearns needs to be decided, it’s that our middle of the order hitters aren’t getting on base or hitting for power yet (except for Hafner, who’s been productive but streaky). They will do so, I’m confident, and when they do hit with more consistency I think the offense will be less streaky and more productive.
He’s also got .55 points of slugging on him, and he plays CF?
by Gradyforpresident on Apr 14, 2011 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I.e., Brantley shifts to left which improves the defense. It’s more than just an offensive upgrade, it’s a team upgrade.
by Gradyforpresident on Apr 14, 2011 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, he’s an offensive upgrade in power (which is what I meant by “he’s obviously an offensive upgrade”- sorry to have been vague). But if a problem is OBP (and I think it is) then he doesn’t help all that much, even when he’s tuned up.
Is this splitting hair? The problem is run scoring, not OBP. Slugging helps that.
by Gradyforpresident on Apr 14, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Of course, but OBP isn’t the only thing which is important. A marginal improvement in OBP doesn’t outweigh a significant decrease in SLG. He was simply saying that OBP isn’t everything.
by Buckeye Brad on Apr 14, 2011 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks, I tried to keep comment full of in-depth analysis and without any “fluff” that reduces the level of discourse.
by Buckeye Brad on Apr 14, 2011 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions
That was a joke based on a discussion he and I had yesterday.
by Buckeye Brad on Apr 14, 2011 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions
The problem is run scoring, not OBP. Slugging helps that.
You don’t think this sounds the least bit silly?
by rockemsockem on Apr 14, 2011 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions
No. He’s saying that we need to improve run scoring through any method and improving either OBP or SLG would do that. I think he meant that problem wasn’t specifically OBP and that’s the only thing we should worry about.
by Buckeye Brad on Apr 14, 2011 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I should say, I understand what you’re are saying and I agree. I just didn’t get that out of the original statement.
by rockemsockem on Apr 14, 2011 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Grady’s career OPS+ is 122 compared to Kearns’ 104. Last year was Kearns’ 2nd best year (tie) in OPS+ at 117 and that is still less than Grady’s career average. Lets assume that grady only comes back to slightly better than ‘09 form. Thats not particularly good for him, but thats still an OPS+ of 110, better than Kearns’ average and almost as good as Kearns was last year.
There is a good chance he is an offensive upgrade considering history. He is also a very clear upgrade on D, posting a higher UZR last year when hurt than Kearns did and he is a much better asset on the basepaths.
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
you haven’t seen bross’ diatribes on DBN yet have you. This is a short answer for him.
by talonk on Apr 14, 2011 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
yep. hard analysis, is it that out of the ordinary?
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
I think all defensive metrics should be taken with a grain of salt, and using one based on a 33 game season really shouldn’t be part of any “hard analysis” in my opinion.
But which of them will hit .300/30/100?
by VA tribe fan on Apr 14, 2011 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I just went back and read the end of the game thread, and that saddens me more than a little bit. I get that it’s an emotional, type-before-you-think sort of environment, but aren’t we better than that?
I do hate Chad Durbin, however.
Durbin was brought to this team to do exactly what Manny Acta brought him in last night to do. He performed adequately in that role last year on the major league level last year. He has a track record of success much longer than Herrman or Germano. The question really is why Durbin instead of R Perez, and the answer is that Hunter and Wells both bat right handed and Callaspo is a switch hitter. We all know that Raffy is not a matchup lefty, but Acta played the percentages and Durbin failed to do his job.
I have no problem with what Acta did with the bullpen last night. Yes, he could have sent Rage out there for another inning, but why take chances with your closer in game 12? Last year, Perez went more than one inning in 6 of 63 appearances last year, with only one appearance for as many as 2.0 innings. He could have left Pestano in, but Pestano hasn’t gone more than an inning yet in his major league career. Again, it’s game 12. Vinnie came in and did what he was supposed to do. Sipp went 1.2, his longest outing of the season. The most we really ever want Sipp to do is 2 innings.
I don’t believe the failure in this case was Manny Acta’s. The failure is Chad Durbin’s.
"I’ll happily embrace elevated hopes if that is the price to pay." - APV
On Twitter at @grantgw - sports and Cleveland and Columbus stuff
by woodsmeister on Apr 14, 2011 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
It’s all nitpicking. I don’t think anybody gave Durbin enough credit for striking out Youkilis on 3 pitches when he relieved Talbot in the 5th of that 2nd Boston game. But since then, he was shaky in the next Boston game. He was awful in the last Seattle game. And he was awful last night.
I just wish Manny would have gone to Hermann in the 12th because if he blows the game, then hey, maybe there’s another data point that Hermann should be sent down. Now I’m not so sure. Manny didn’t help him with the pitchout call to be fair, but it looked like we were going down anyway.
he got a guy out. The best hitters in the world get out 60% of the time.
"I want to be playing at the end of October or the end of September -- not just at the beginning of April." —Grady
Just so I’m clear: you’re not comfortable cutting Durbin any amount of slack, right?
The persuasion is not inherent in the lobster.
He performed adequately in that role last year on themajor leagueNational League level last year.
Once Durbin loaded ‘em up, I’d have liked to see Raffy P there.
by JulioBernazard on Apr 14, 2011 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t see what the 12th game thing has to do with it. Whatever you think of the move, CPerez had only thrown 11 pitches and was going to get a day off regardless. Those facts can’t be escaped.
I’m not saying Acta should be excoriated over this, but at the same time, let’s not act like he was forced into replacing CPerez. He chose to replace him. He could have had CPerez face the two righties and then bring in RPerez to turn around the switch hitter (and continue into the 13th).
At that moment, or WE is 37.6% per Fangraphs. I think it’s actually lower than that. In order to win, we need to score one run in the top of the 13th and hold the Angels scoreless for two innings. I think, in Acta’s view, maybe this game was not as close as the tie score suggested. Maybe it doesn’t warrant the most high-leverage handling.
So I think the charge that Acta gave up on the game, while exaggerated, may not be that far off the mark. I think the view at this point is, we’re a longshot to make it through another two innings without allowing a run, so if we can win this with the Chad Durbins of the world, awesome. If not, live to fight another day.
And they were eleven pretty stress-free pitches, no?
by JulioBernazard on Apr 14, 2011 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Someone had commented that repeatedly warming up in the bullpen also stresses the pitcher’s arm. I don’t if that was an issue last night, but it may be worth considering.
Sadly, I missed the game, so I don’t know about any fast half-inning. I don’t really follow your question anyway.
A comment in the game thread, which I read after the game ended, seemed to indicate that Chris Perez had warmed up to pitch several times. I assume this would be from the 9 inning on, in case the Indians got a lead.
I assume that warming up = throwing = stress on the arm.
Warming up throws by no means cause stress comparable to in-game pitches. I’m not saying it doesn’t count, but basically, it doesn’t count.
You have no more idea this is true than the rest of us. I’m interested to hear from the guys who pitched at a higher level than Little League, though.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Apr 15, 2011 6:31 AM EDT up reply actions
That leaves me out! But I have heard things through the years that lead me to believe (perhaps incorrectly) that being ready to pitch is significant. I imagine warming up unnecessarily as equivalent to 1/3 of an inning. I’m sure it also makes a big difference if that’s warming up last night or fifteen minutes ago. I expect warming up several nights in a row would be almost equivalent to having actually pitched those nights.
I made it all the way through college, and my experience was that it affected everyone differently. I had something of a rubber arm, so I didn’t mind throwing three days in a row, going through a couple cycles of warming and sitting, or chilling on the bench during a long inning. Other guys had to stay warm between innings or they’d either lose the plate or tighten up and hurt themselves. We had a couple of guys in college who would go down to the pen between innings to soft toss just to stay loose. I don’t know how much of that was physical and how much was mental though. Everyone is different; a starter obviously is able to sit through several offensive innings. Some guys bag it if they have to sit down more than once. I don’t know how it affects Perez or – just as importantly – how Acta thinks it affects Perez.
The persuasion is not inherent in the lobster.
I had this thought. Could it be that beyond a certain point there may be a diminishing returns situation for an extra innings win which results in taxing your bullpen heavily? That is, hoping to luck through an inning with Durbin is a better idea than risking Perez (however minimal the risk), especially with an offense that had looked purely incompetent.
by Gradyforpresident on Apr 14, 2011 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
True, but I don’t think Acta looked at those 11 pitches in a vacuum. Perez warmed up in the 9th, then didn’t come in, warmed up in the 10th, came in and got the last out, sat, went out and pitched the 11th, and sat again. My guess is that Manny was pretty reluctant to have him come out and throw in a third separate inning, a) for health reasons, and b) that he isn’t used to doing that.
I am skeptical that there is much difference between coming out three times and coming out twice, given the same number of pitches. We’re not talking about even a 20-minute sit-down here. Was it even five minutes?
I don’t think FredOx implied the fault was Acta’s. I do not fault Acta at all. Durbin was the veteran and its too early in the season to lose faith in a veteran who has been very solid in this role the last few years.
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
If I can speak for myself, I tend to take the long view of bullpen and general pitcher management. The issue isn’t really whether Manny Acta should have put Chad Durbin in the 12th, or left Chris Perez in for parts of three innings or left Carrasco in for another inning. The issue is how he manages the pitching staff generally, something that will be clear as the summer goes on, but is a silly thing to think about on April 14th. The Angels won on Tuesday night by leaving Haren in for a complete game, but that may in the long run be a poor choice (248 pitches in 8 calendar days), even though they won the game.
My problem is the level of vitriol leveled at Acta based on whether the team comes back from LA 8-4 instead of 9-3.
fair enough.
I would say that the 248 pitches in 8 days would be much more damaging to the angels in the long run than this one loss we had against them in extra innings.
I guess I wasn’t there for the gamethread so i didn’t catch the vitrol, but I agree it is not deserved. He played the calculated move with the veteran.
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
I think there was a bit of an over-reaction to the over-reaction. It was a tight game that went on for a long time, and there were questionable non-moves that are valid to discuss and criticize without making it a thumbs up/down on Manny.
Personally I really like him, and still do. I just thought he didn’t make all the moves he could to win the game. I don’t think there was a single person (Tribe fan, at least) who watched the whole game and nodded in approval when Durbin stayed in with the bases loaded.
Or didn’t scratch their head on the pitchout call previous to that.
I am very sorry to have caused all this angst. You should all be made aware that I returned home, turned on the game and was greeted with 2B/2-base error/walk/home run. I finally came to my senses and switched the game off, after which the world returned to its proper axial rotation. So this whole thing should be treated as a 3-0 victory capping a glorious road trip. Now you will have to excuse me, as I must find a Lake County Captain to offer up in sacrifice.
were questionable non-moves that are valid to discuss and criticize without making it a thumbs up/down on Manny
Yes. We have to be able to critique and to consider mistakes, or else what are we doing here? This isn’t the damned pep squad.
by Jay on Apr 14, 2011 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
/sheepishly folds garish sweater, puts in drawer
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Apr 14, 2011 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions
But it’s a game thread reaction. It doesn’t count the same, just like warmup pitches.
by Jay on Apr 15, 2011 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
This is a good point.
A manager can do more harm by not trusting his players than by trusting them. If Acta has a guy on the staff, he should play him. To refuse to use a guy handicaps the team by one roster position, robs the organization of the value of the contract and puts too great a strain on the other relievers.
Is one night’s decision going to have all those negative effects? No. But to consistently mistrust your guys is a recipe for disaster. When management gives you a player, you’re forced to use him, even if you would prefer not having him. The only question then is how best to use the arm.
In any case, putting a reliever in during the 12th inning of a game in mid-April simply can not be all that bad of a decision.
also, think about the harm he can do with saying on april 14th “I don’t trust you already”. Is not playing durbin in this situation any different than pulling choo because he is hitting sucky? maybe a little, but they are still somewhat the same. Its too early to give up on players.
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
if you’re eric wedge you leave that guy you don’t like in the bullpen to study his old Yale textbooks, or in the dugout to perfect his domino-playing.
"I want to be playing at the end of October or the end of September -- not just at the beginning of April." —Grady
Lose 2, Win 8, Lose 2 …. so we should definitely win the next 8. Amirite? /sarc.
Another tough loss, but the season is still off to a great start. Before we left on the road trip, I think any of us would have taken a 4-2 record. And we weren’t theat far removed to having a 6-0 record.
Let’s get home, take care of the Orioles (weird only a series home stand), then take to the road again.
True story, yesterday I had a professor tell me “We don’t know where this meteorite comes from and can’t figure out how it formed, but isn’t it pretty?”
"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway
by notthatnoise on Apr 15, 2011 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions
I should add this guy is one of the foremost experts on meteorites and mars rocks in particular, and we regularly spend large amounts of time discussing how pretty rocks are.
"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway
by notthatnoise on Apr 15, 2011 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Admitting ignorance is not a bad thing at all. More people should do it more frequently.
by 9James on Apr 15, 2011 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
That would seem to be a pretty good definition for an Amirite.
by stuart dean on Apr 15, 2011 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
But that pitchout was an awful idea. Squeeze plays aren’t easy to do. If they’re gonna try it, make them pull it off.
by Gradyforpresident on Apr 14, 2011 1:34 PM EDT reply actions
Time to barbecue Chad Durbin. He hasn’t pitched well. He is a liability. Maybe he is trade bait for the Tribe to draw in more talent. But if he continues to pitch like this he will be slag metal. They need to send him on his way now.
Don’t see it happening any time soon. Small sample size, other guys have options, and Durbin was given a ML contract. I’d say June at the earliest, unless he is just absolutely terrible.
He’s been that thus far. The rest of the bullpen has been fairly stable. He is the erratic one. Almost as bad as Jensen Lewis is when he is off.
Right, but 12 games into the season, and how many has he pitched in? Has this front office ever made that kind of reactionary move based on that many games?
Although I’m not defending the move, I thought it was more a reflection of his spot in line when they needed a roster spot than an indictment of his pitching.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Apr 15, 2011 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Right, I’m just saying it wasn’t reactionary to his being a gascan. Oldberto received 26 inexplicable innings.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Apr 15, 2011 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Nothing against you specifically but I always love posts like this. Your entire post is about how bad Durbin is yet you want to trade him for “talent”.
I don’t even think the Mariners are in play on this one right now.
I’m not saying that I would trade him for talent. I’m saying that the Tribe might have him for that reason. I believe in production. If a guy produces good fruit then you have a positive situation. IF not then something needs to happen with him. The Indians have guys that can step in and play immediately from a reliever stand point.
While I don’t imagine Durbin will be going soon, I get the feeling that Actanetti may have a quicker draw when it comes to jettisoning relievers than Wedgiro.
by Gradyforpresident on Apr 14, 2011 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Let’s go back further. Who wants to talk about Hank Peters?
Besides you, Chuck.
"I want to be playing at the end of October or the end of September -- not just at the beginning of April." —Grady
by westbrook on Apr 14, 2011 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I can’t speak for anyone else here, but your post at the beginning of this mini-thread makes you really difficult to take seriously.
The persuasion is not inherent in the lobster.
1996? You mean the year when all John Hart could scrape up was a rotation that averaged an ERA+ of 114? That bum only got guys who averaged an ERA+ of 129 in 1995. Sickening.
This is probably a case where it’s better to use the median ERA+ of the starting 5—which is like 121 in 1995. It would be nice to recompute the staff ERA+, but then who has time for that? The entire pitching staff had an ERA+ of 123 in ‘95. One could argue that our pitching was better than our hitting that year (it just wasn’t as good as the Braves’ pitching, which incidentally had a total staff ERA+ of 125).
The pitching during Hart’s tenure was usually a little better than average, with staff ERA+’s of 99 (1991), 97 (1992), 96 (1993—a train wreck of a rotation), 107 (1994), 123 (1995), 113 (1996), 99 (1997), 107 (1998), 103 (1999), and 102 (2000).
During Shapiro’s tenure, we saw 97 (2001), 90 (2002), 105 (2003), 91 (2004), 117 (2005), 101 (2006), 112 (2007), 96 (2008), 84 (2009), and 90 (2010).
What will we get in 2011? Pitching is the key.
It’s actually really easy to compute a staff ERA+, or at least to get a very close estimate. First, you compare the ERA and ERA+ of all Indians pitchers to get a close estimate of the league ERA for the weighted park environments in which that specific team competed. The formula is:
Team ERA+ * Team ERA / 100 = 123 * 3.83 / 100 = 4.71
4.71! (Hey, 1995 offensive levels … wussup.)
Okay, next we just compute the aggregate ERA of all the starters. Not so hard, you just take the sum all their earned runs (368) and the sum of all their innings pitched (838). Multiply times 9, and we get an ERA of 3.95 for the five starters.
4.71 / 3.95 = 1.19 … so that’s a 119 ERA+.
Incidentally, our 3.95 is a little lower than the “as starter” team split for the 1995 Indians, which is 4.21. That’s because our number includes relief appearances by our six main starters — six from Ogea and one each from Clark and Hill — and it doesn’t include spot starts by Grimsley (2), Lopez (2) or Roa (1), and especially the ten disastrous starts from the 38-year-old Bud Black (6.85 ERA).
I don’t agree with this, but I do like the choice of “barbecuing” him as the means to the end.
by hans on Apr 15, 2011 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I know one cannot get too excited. But Chad Durbin didn’t pitch all that well during the spring. And at times he has stunk up the place. During the winning streak just about everyone contributed. Chad did get himself into trouble in one game but it didn’t hurt the outcome. Off hand just from the bits and pieces I’ve seen, Cleveland needs to stick to fundamental baseball. The pitching looks for the most part to be fairly decent. Top to bottom. They do need seasoning. And the bats may need Jobu. Then again they may not. I’m interested in seeing what Sizemore and a more consistent Travis Halfner can do.
Hafner has hit the ball better this season than in a long time. In fact ever since the 07 ALCS he just hasn’t had the drive on the ball. I was wondering was he hurt and didn’t say anything. But if he can hit at least 20 hrs I’d be happy. It would help the offense.
Things that have already been covered on this site very exhaustively:
1. The decline of Travis Hafner
2. The general non-existence of “consistency” in baseball.
I miss FJM.
I was thinking the same thing when reading the “more consistant” comment. I wondered what Ken Tremendous would say about that (of course, you can still hear him, aka Michael Shur, discuss baseball on Joe Posnanski’s podcasts).
by Buckeye Brad on Apr 15, 2011 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Or you could read him right here on SBN, although he hasn’t been around Neyer’s new thing for a while.
I know one cannot get too excited.
Time to barbecue Chad Durbin. He hasn’t pitched well. He is a liability. Maybe he is trade bait for the Tribe to draw in more talent. But if he continues to pitch like this he will be slag metal. They need to send him on his way now.
The persuasion is not inherent in the lobster.
I’m just going to start quoting Jay to people:
So next time a player makes one little mistake, kindly STFU with all your brilliant roster moves and manager-firing advice.Of course, that quote was in direct reference to Barfield and Wedge, but whatever.
I’m just going to start quoting Jay to people:
FredOx, aka Minion
"I’ll happily embrace elevated hopes if that is the price to pay." - APV
On Twitter at @grantgw - sports and Cleveland and Columbus stuff
by woodsmeister on Apr 15, 2011 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not really sure what is wrong with what I’m saying. But apparently you feel like there is a problem. If you have an real issue with me. Say it please. I can understand if you disagree with what I’m saying. I think we can talk about this because we like the same team. But if you plan on ridiculing me because of what I believe then that is going to take us nowhere.
My problem is that we’re 12 games into the season and you want to “barbecue” Chad Durbin. Then you say that you know not to get excited, but then you repeat the same basic idea about cutting bait on Durbin for what basically amounts to a third of a game. We disagree on this issue, but I don’t dislike you personally. If you continue to bring the same CleCom combination of knee-jerk visceral ignorance posing as analysis and inflexible affection for your chosen stand in spite of evidence to the contrary, that may change. For now, I just see you as a guy who is irrationally passionate about Chad Durbin.
The persuasion is not inherent in the lobster.
Some of this is an inherent problem joining an established community. We’ve had certain conversations over and over again, which is something you wouldn’t necessarily know. So, for example, we have little patience for people who don’t assess a hitter more deeply than batting average and RBIs (aka Idiot Stats), or who talk about clutch hitting (which, for the most part and in the long run, doesn’t exist) or consistency (ditto). Statements such as “Player X sucks. We should trade him” fall into this category as well – now that Bavasi is gone, there aren’t any teams that are not capable of better analysis than a bunch of amateurs on the internet.
Now, it is always possible that junkballer hates you personally. Maybe you ran over his dog or something. But it is more likely that you’ve fallen into the sinkhole of Things We Are Sick Of. You’ll be OK, as long as you take constructive criticism in good spirits and don’t praise Derek Jeter.
by FredOx on Apr 15, 2011 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
There are some things I just don’t know. So I apologize for my ignorance. I know baseball is a very stat driven game. There are some stats that make my head spin. But I feel as though Junkballer could come across better than what he/she has. I’m open to listening to a new point of view. I may not agree with it. But I’m open to listening to it and responding with a good conclusion. And I’ll try to conform to the rules. Like I said I’m not here to make trouble. If it is at all possible for you to bear with me, I would appreciate that.
Durbin’s Twitter: “The team fought too hard yesterday…for me to give it away so easily. Time to dig down deep and start executing. This team is too good”
by Gradyforpresident on Apr 14, 2011 7:02 PM EDT reply actions
Nice that he cares. Yeah he sucked and might not add much all year but I like this attitude.
Len Barker Perfect Game Attendee
by PortlandVinny on Apr 14, 2011 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Why isn’t that part of the LGT tweet window?
by JulioBernazard on Apr 14, 2011 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I suggest a new tag line “This team is too good”
by 9James on Apr 15, 2011 8:28 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
from another thread, I propose this Asdrubal quote, “I feel more strong.”
The players are believers, that’s for sure.
Or from the CBSSports.com article linked earlier
How about that for a cool 2011 motto? The Cleveland Indians: We’re surprised when we lose.
Sounds like a brand new tagline for the front page of LGT to me. “It can get soupy” needs updated.
"I’ll happily embrace elevated hopes if that is the price to pay." - APV
On Twitter at @grantgw - sports and Cleveland and Columbus stuff
by woodsmeister on Apr 15, 2011 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree. We need a new tagline and that one is perfect.
by Buckeye Brad on Apr 16, 2011 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
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