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Game 38: Indians 19, Royals 1


This one could have simply been explained by the Kyle Davies start, but things were actually more interesting than that.

For those who don't know, Kyle Davies is probably the worst regular starting pitcher in the big leagues. Despite having a fastball that reaches 95 mph and 139 starts under his belt, Davies has a career 78 ERA+. Last season, in one of the best seasons for pitching in a long time, he posted a 5.34 ERA over 32 starts (good for a 78 ERA+). He made 22 starts in 2009 with similar results. To my estimation, the only reason why the Royals continue to trot him out was that he has "good stuff" and that they don't have anyone better in the minors (though that seems hard to believe).

But a funny thing happened on the way to the expected blowout. No, the blowout still happened, but most of the damage didn't come off of Davies. He left the game with a shoulder injury after pitching to four batters; his velocity was well off, and he had given up a line shot to first and three walks. Kansas City manager brought in Nick Adcock, and he almost got out of the jam; he struck out Travis Hafner on three pitches. and got ahead of Orlando Cabrera, but Cabrera blooped a single in front of Jeff Francouer to plate the first two runs of the game.

Star-divide

Adcock would pitch into the third before being replaced by...tomorrow's starter. The Royals had been rained out the day before, so Vin Mazzaro would be pitching on normal rest. The idea was to have Mazzaro go six innings so that the Royals bullpen wouldn't be burned out at the beginning of a long stretch of games without an off-day, with the club calling up a starter for tomorrow's game using the roster spot freed up by Davies going on the DL. It seemed like a logical plan, and if Mazzaro had a good outing, the Royals could even have had a chance to come back to win the game.

But after a quiet third inning, things took an historic turn. In the fourth and fifth innings, Mazzaro gave up 14 runs. 9 of those runs came with two outs in the fourth inning; the Indians batted around with two outs, with only one walk in that stretch. There was a Travis Hafner double (three runs), a Granpabrera single (one run), a Travis Buck single, a Matt LaPorta double (two runs), a Jack Hannahan single, and a Michael Brantley three-run homer.

Incredibly enough, Mazzaro came out to pitch the fifth. After all, he was in the rotation, so theoretically he could have gone a couple of innings more. He got Shin-Soo Choo to fly out, then allowed the next four batters to reach before Ned Yost mercifully pulled him. His final line: 2.1 innings, 11 hits, 14 earned runs, 2 strikeouts, 2 walks. Joe Posnanski notes that no reliever had given up that many runs in the game since World War II. And all 14 of those runs were earned, which is probably an all-time record for a reliever. So those of you watching the game were watching history.

Meanwhile Josh Tomlin did his usual thing. He went six innings, and could have gone at least an inning more, but what was the point by the time? He allowed one run on five hits, walking nobody and striking out one. I'd guess that the Royals weren't as locked in at the plate as the game went on, but then again, pitchers often have trouble with pitching with that big a lead. Tomlin was supposed to start Sunday's game, and had even warmed up for it before the game was called. But he didn't show any adverse effects; he looked like he always did. He shut down a decent lineup, one that he's faced quite a bit in his short major-league career.

Before the game, Grady Sizemore was placed on the 15-day Disabled List, and Travis Buck was recalled to take his place. Assuming that the diagnosis is still a bone bruise, I think it's a prudent move; there's no sense in rushing Sizemore back to the lineup at this point, and I think the Indians wanted to bring back Buck and to prevent Shelley Duncan from making any more starts in the outfield. Buck went 3-for-6 in the blowout, and should be playing over Austin Kearns, who is likely a week or two from a DFA.

 

20110516_indians_royals_0_medium

via www.fangraphs.com

 

Highest WPA Lowest WPA
Tomlin .156 Choo -.031
Granpabrera .114 Hannahan -.022
Brantley .108 Hafner -.007

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Comments

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If we DFA Kearns & keep Buck, are we short a RH bat?

by stuart dean on May 17, 2011 7:04 AM EDT reply actions  

I don’t think so. At least not as long as Duncan is around. Also, while nearly all our interesting bats in Columbus are left-handers, this is where Phelps being a switch-hitter becomes more valuable. Jared Goedert is the other RH bat hanging around the upper minors.

by APV on May 17, 2011 7:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

Eh, is Phelps’ bat really a viable replacement for Kearns’?

by Jay on May 17, 2011 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

Since the Tribe traded Kearns last year, here’s his line over 175 PA:
.210 BA / .314 OBP / .283 SLG / .597 OPS with 7 extra base hits in those 175 PA

Replace “Phelps” with a lot of names, and yeah…“a viable replacement for Kearns” doesn’t presuppose a huge level of production.

by The DiaTriber on May 17, 2011 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

Kearns in the two years prior to initially joining the Indians in 2010:
.209 BA /.320 OBP / .312 SLG / .633 OPS with 28 extra base hits in 568 PA with the Nats

by The DiaTriber on May 17, 2011 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

So, the one thing that is not like the other is Kearns’ line with the Tribe in 2010 – .272/.354/.419?

"I’ll happily embrace elevated hopes if that is the price to pay." - APV

On Twitter at @grantgw - sports and Cleveland and Columbus stuff

by woodsmeister on May 17, 2011 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

Taken together, I think you may have a point.

Separately … 175 PA is not much of a sample, but then again his BAbip over that period is .313, slightly higher than his career number, .304.

The two years prior, he was playing hurt as far as we know. As you know, I’m no fan of the “injury defense,” but Kearns isn’t a prospect and apparently has been healthy since joining the Indians 15 months ago, so it seems appropriate here.

Still, as I said, taken together, I would agree that one can’t just give Kearns the benefit of the doubt with respect to his 773 OPS with the Indians last year. On the other hand, since it’s hardly clear-cut, I don’t see why we wouldn’t keep him around until/unless we have a 40-man crunch.

by Jay on May 17, 2011 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

Normally I would say keep Kearns around and send Buck to AAA when Sizemore comes back, but I think the upside of Buck (long-term) combined with the Indians being in contention (short-term) in my mind makes Kearns expendable. He’s not the primary right-handed pinch-hitter (Duncan does that), he’s not a late-inning defensive replacement (all three of the regulars are better defenders), and by the time Sizemore is back it will be almost June, the time when clubs start evaluating their rosters seriously.

Now if Buck doesn’t hit during the next 7-10 days, then the Indians could justify it and push off their final decision. But if Buck hits, it’s going to be awfully hard to justify sending him back to the minors. Regardless of what Kearns does, he’s going to be a free agent at the end of the year. There’s no upside in enduring another month of poor production.

by Ryan on May 17, 2011 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions   2 recs

Nice summary. Well played.

by Seattle Tribe Fan on May 17, 2011 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Should we weigh more heavily the annoyance of carrying essentially two DHs in Hafner and Duncan?

I respect Duncan’s popularity in the clubhouse and his average production, but should we take it for granted that Kearns should be the one to go?

Has Jason Donald played a little OF?

by jhon on May 17, 2011 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

No, but Valbuena has been playing outfield in Columbus. Rodriguez has a lot of OF experience as well.

"I’ll happily embrace elevated hopes if that is the price to pay." - APV

On Twitter at @grantgw - sports and Cleveland and Columbus stuff

by woodsmeister on May 17, 2011 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think we’re talking about the major leaguers here.

by Jay on May 18, 2011 5:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

has donald played a little?

no

by Brick. on May 17, 2011 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

we have 5 OFs I see on the team (duncan is 1b/dh/of so I’m not technically including him—wait, has he played 1b? guess not): Grady, Brantley, Choo, Buck, Kearns. I think all four of those guys are better than Kearns defensively

by Gradyforpresident on May 17, 2011 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

He has, in fact played first this season.

by ahowie on May 17, 2011 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

We don’t seem to be lacking for positional coverage or flexibility, even with 1.5 DH guys.

by Jay on May 18, 2011 5:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

Regardless of what Kearns does, he’s going to be a free agent at the end of the year. There’s no upside in enduring another month of poor production.

Regardless of what the club does with Buck, he’s not going to be a free agent at the end of the year. There’s no downside to demoting him.

Having said that, I think you’ve convinced me that what Kearns is offering has become superfluous on the roster.

by Jay on May 18, 2011 5:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

Just curious… seems like you’re on record as saying Phelps isn’t considered that important by the organization (I could be wildly misquoting you here, so apologies upfront, remembering some game thread I think), should be considered behind Donald, you mentioned what Lastoria DIDN’T say about Phelps defense, etc. Thoughts on his eventual path in the AAA glut?

by cheech99 on May 17, 2011 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

This from recent BA overview of perhaps overlooked prospects having good starts:

Phelps lacks the arm and range to be an everday shortstop, but a scout who saw him said he plays the position sure-handedly enough to serve as a utilityman. His ability to switch hit will add further to the versatility that will likely pay off eventually in a big league job.

They say the obvious, that second and third are his best positions. I’ve watched him at SS a little and he made plays. He looks better at SS than Kipnis does at 2B in my short time actually seeing them, I’ll say that.

I’d say that Donald is the better defensive player, has more ML experience, and earned the shot to be called up first for at least the UT spot, but hey – he’s not the healthy one right now.

by mcrose on May 17, 2011 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

I have only speculated on what the Indians think about Phelps, and not confidently. All I’ve said is, they’ve had a few opportunities to show that they think he’s a serious prospect, and they haven’t taken them. Based purely on their actions, it’s hard to demonstrate that they think more highly of him than Jordan Brown — but that isn’t conclusive.

Phelps should be considered behind Donald primarily because of defensive value and major league experience. I like Phelps plenty, but while Donald hasn’t proven that much, he’s proven more than Phelps and would be a reasonable option at shortstop. That has real value.

Phelps opportunity comes if there are delays with Kipnis and Chisenhall arriving. Donald’s injury woes help, the relatively good performances of Antonetti’s veteran pickups do not. Something has to go wrong, basically, for him to get a shot.

by Jay on May 18, 2011 5:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

Fwiw, Buck was asked about what it was like to play with the Columbus prospects, and he singled out Phelps as being the guy that impressed him.

by mcrose on May 18, 2011 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, but what does he know?

by Jay on May 18, 2011 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

Seriously. He was taking hitting tips from Choo all spring and what has he done at the plate? What a hack!

RALLY SIG

by USSChoo on May 18, 2011 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

We just should of let Tomlin pitch the whole game

by UnSafe 70 on May 17, 2011 7:52 AM EDT reply actions  

How does that make any sense?

Trombone/creamy/soda.

by Joel D on May 17, 2011 8:20 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Apropos of nothing, every single time I see Josh Tomlin’s headshot on this site as that day’s starting pitcher I always think he’s Jeremy Sowers. I should probably stop thinking that way since he throws with the opposite hand and, you know … isn’t.

My primitive mind can't grasp these concepts.

by Ockus_NYC on May 17, 2011 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

it’s ok. i do it too.

by AngG on May 17, 2011 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

He looks like Jeremy’s brother who is less book smart but knows his way around the block a little better.

RALLY SIG

by USSChoo on May 17, 2011 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

I said this in a game thread early in the year and everyone acted like I was blaspheming horribly. I resent the agreement you’re getting here.

by ameliorate on May 18, 2011 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

There is a time to take one for the team and leading by more than 10 runs is not that time.

"I’ll happily embrace elevated hopes if that is the price to pay." - APV

On Twitter at @grantgw - sports and Cleveland and Columbus stuff

by woodsmeister on May 17, 2011 8:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

What is your logic for keeping Tomlin in? Tomlin’s arm is far more valuable to the team than Germano and Durban’s, why take a chance on injury in a blowout? And Germano and Durbin needed the work.

by LeftyCatcher on May 17, 2011 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

I disagree with you as strongly as one can disagree with someone. Do you care to elaborate?

by JulioBernazard on May 17, 2011 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hosmer’s double and Betamin’s single (when Hosmer was held at third account for that little bump at the end of the 5th inning… Just wondering at what point the game flatlined.

"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge..." C. Darwin

by Spidey on May 17, 2011 9:19 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

I’ve been living six hours ahead of EST all season and have actually figured out which nights each week I can justify staying up into the morning to watch games. My record on those nights (mornings) is 5-2.

My primitive mind can't grasp these concepts.

by Ockus_NYC on May 17, 2011 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

3 hours every night is a lot of time.

by Gradyforpresident on May 17, 2011 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

“Some of the plays didn’t go my way.” – Vin Mazzaro

by SuddenSam on May 17, 2011 10:40 AM EDT reply actions  

Vin Mazzaro, Master of Understatement

"I’ll happily embrace elevated hopes if that is the price to pay." - APV

On Twitter at @grantgw - sports and Cleveland and Columbus stuff

by woodsmeister on May 17, 2011 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

The interview was conducted on the overnight bus to Omaha.

My primitive mind can't grasp these concepts.

by Ockus_NYC on May 17, 2011 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

I’ll give him the Hafner bases clearing double. Melky blew any chance at catching that.

by Roger Dorn on May 17, 2011 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

So Duffy is coming up to make Wednesday’s start. KC’s “all-in” strategy continues…

by APV on May 17, 2011 11:28 AM EDT reply actions  

Duffy one of their heralded prospects?

by jhon on May 17, 2011 1:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Apparently he’s like #65 on BA’s 100. Never heard of him.

"I want to be playing at the end of October or the end of September -- not just at the beginning of April." —Grady

by westbrook on May 17, 2011 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Danny Duffy. A lefty who looks like he’ll be some trouble for us.

by jhon on May 17, 2011 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Then it’s a good thing we don’t play KC on Wednesday.

by Buckeye Brad on May 17, 2011 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

It’s a 2-game set in KC.

by JulioBernazard on May 17, 2011 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

had mental health problems, quit the game before the season last year, maybe got himself some decent Rx because he’s pitching lights out

by Gradyforpresident on May 17, 2011 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes. Clearly they learned from our mistake of not calling up LaPorta a month early in 2009.

by Jay on May 18, 2011 6:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

It’s bewildering, and what’s more, it’s giving my Scoresheet team a hell of a roster crunch

by Gradyforpresident on May 18, 2011 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

This one’s just for you, jhon

My watch is broken... it's stuck on Tribe Time
#suckitLaw

by Turkmenbashi on May 17, 2011 12:20 PM EDT reply actions  

So cute.

by jhon on May 17, 2011 1:37 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Indians beat the Royals 19-1, meanwhile the yankees lose their 6th straight.
guess which is the sportscenter highlight of the night?

Lets gooo Maryland

by Terrapin13 on May 17, 2011 12:40 PM EDT reply actions  

ESPN News had a 5+ minutes segment on the effect of Posada’s hissy fit on the fragile Jackass clubhouse

My watch is broken... it's stuck on Tribe Time
#suckitLaw

by Turkmenbashi on May 17, 2011 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

This might get lost, but Joe Posnanski does a great job in detailing last night’s game.

http://joeposnanski.si.com/2011/05/16/the-worst-pitching-performance-ever/

by Toxicadam on May 17, 2011 2:21 PM EDT reply actions  

What do we think the Tribe will do with the rotation when Talbot comes back? Just send down White?

by ahowie on May 17, 2011 2:34 PM EDT reply actions  

Yes. Probably with a detailed assessment regarding what he can tune up at AAA in order to be more effective the next time he’s in Cleveland.

"I’ll happily embrace elevated hopes if that is the price to pay." - APV

On Twitter at @grantgw - sports and Cleveland and Columbus stuff

by woodsmeister on May 17, 2011 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was brainstorming (dreaming) the other day of a scenario in which STL falls out of contention and they take Talbot for that Westbrook guy. CarCar to AAA then takes the 07laffey role in the postseason.

And yes, I love Talbot too.

"I want to be playing at the end of October or the end of September -- not just at the beginning of April." —Grady

by westbrook on May 17, 2011 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think I’d rather have Talbot at this point. That’s probably just based on a SSS involving Westbrook being more or less terrible so far this season and Talbot’s last start being a gem.

by ahowie on May 17, 2011 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Also, if the Indians add an impact starter (they wont) for the postseason, i’d prefer Talbot as the first man out of the pen, as I believe he has some experience pitching out of the bullpen already.

"Mixed emotions. Rather see him hit PEDroia [with that pitch]. I don’t care if he is in the dugout"

by Gradysmanldy on May 17, 2011 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

He had 2 relief appearances for the Rays in 2008, and one in the minors in 2006, but that’s it.

by InfiniteMonkeyTypists on May 17, 2011 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

We’d be out of our minds to replace any of our top 7 or 8 guys with Westbrook. Even Huff looks like a better option, to say nothing of the contracts involved.

by jhon on May 17, 2011 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

A month ago, I would have throught so too, but his last 5 starts:

3.58 ERA with a 294 BABIP against CIN, ATL, FLA, CHI and PHI — I watched the first and last of that bunch and he looked good in both. His K:BB is rather pedestrian though.

"I want to be playing at the end of October or the end of September -- not just at the beginning of April." —Grady

by westbrook on May 17, 2011 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

You’re right, I should rank him ahead of Huff as a theoretical option. Last game was pretty good.

by jhon on May 17, 2011 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Age.

Salary.

Years under contract.

by Jay on May 18, 2011 6:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

I was listening to Brian Kinney on ESPN radio while I was driving to Portland last night and he was going on and on about the ALEast and how the toughest teams in the AL were in the East and he spoutted a bunch of those New Agey metrics we’re all so found of. He mentioned the run differentials the Rays, and Yankees had for the seaon and the talked about how the Saux had improved their RD over the last dozen or so games. Kinney saw this as proof positive that these three teams were the best in the AL and then mentioned – almost in passing – that the Yankees or Saux – I forget which – were second in the AL in RD with ~28 behind the Indians with 41. And this was before we added 18 runs to that total against KC. As with the rest of the ESPN twits he said that “the Indians probably can’t keep this up”. Boy I wish I’da taped that show for future reference for this year’s WS.

Our best players wear suits.

by mauichuck on May 17, 2011 9:43 PM EDT reply actions  

I don’t feel powerfully secure about a small lead in the standings, but it is interesting to note that our current 5 game lead is as big as all the 1st – 2nd place leads in the other 5 divisions added together.

by jhon on May 18, 2011 1:23 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

The AL Central is the only division with 3 teams 7+ games behind the division leader. The only other division with even 2 is the NL Central and the other 4 divisions don’t even have 1. I don’t feel secure with a 5 game lead either, but it is nice to know that at least 2 teams are pretty much out of the race (2 teams with a playoff percentage of 3.3 or lower).

by callmrplow on May 18, 2011 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yes, it is nice knowing that the Twins won’t be fluking themselves into the race.

by Jay on May 18, 2011 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions   2 recs

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