The New Moneyball

"The surprising Indians ran to the top of the American League with a defense that ranked second in the AL in Defensive Efficiency as recently as May 23, but a 4-14 slump in their ensuing 18 games was joined by a drastic decline in their defensive performance. Cleveland currently ranks 23rd in Defensive Efficiency, 11th in the American League."

12 months ago emd2k3 14 comments 0 recs |

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Thanks for the link. I wouldn’t have suspected that the defense was a culprit in the recent decline, except for some blunders in the OF.

by JulioBernazard on Jun 14, 2011 1:28 PM EDT reply actions

The defense began to make the pitcher’s lives more difficult before the losses started mounting. On the west coast trip in early May, for instance, there was a stretch of games that featured errors or misplays by Hannahan, of all people (May 4), Kearns & Hannahan (May 5), LaPorta & OCab (May 6), Grady (May 7) and Everett (May 8).

I don’t think that they’re a substandard defensive team, but this staff, with its low K rates, really needs its defense to turn BIPs into outs. Only 3B (Hannahan) and LF/CF (Grady/Brantley) have better-than-league-average F2O rates; every other position is 2 to 4 points lower than the average.

by YoDaddyWags on Jun 14, 2011 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions

That article mentions defense and the bullpen being two of the main ways that the Rays were able to turn their team around very quickly, and that’s discussed in greater detail in Jonah Keri’s book about the Rays, The Extra 2%. I’m reading the book right now and I’d highly recommend it to any baseball fan. Keri describes how three guys from Wall Street who didn’t have much baseball experience were able to use the strategies detailed in this article — finding undervalued assets — to build the Rays in to contenders in a tough division with big spenders. it’s a very good read.

by Buckeye Brad on Jun 14, 2011 1:52 PM EDT reply actions

Thanks for the rec.

by JulioBernazard on Jun 14, 2011 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions

I still have a hard time reconciling that book with all the top-three picks the Rays had. Sure, they were well-managed, but isn’t “The Extra 2%” really just draft position?

by Chemo on Jun 14, 2011 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Of course, the management team before them also had top picks and wasted them. High draft picks don’t mean anything without using them correctly and along with other moves. Especially competing in that division, against the Yankees and Red Sox, it take more than just good draft picks to compete. When you read about all the moves they made between 07 and 08 which instantly turned them in to a winner — especially with defense and in the bullpen — that really shows what a great job Friedman and company did. They found good players all over the diamond which other teams had rejected.

by Buckeye Brad on Jun 14, 2011 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Just came here to post a link to this article. Very nice.

by Toxicadam on Jun 14, 2011 3:38 PM EDT reply actions

Liked this a lot. The Marinersfail paragraph was hilarious to read.

"I want to be playing at the end of October or the end of September -- not just at the beginning of April." —Grady

by westbrook on Jun 14, 2011 4:54 PM EDT reply actions

This was going to be my original pullquote:

Babies get mohawks now, and they come out of the womb knowing that Jeff Francoeur sucks.

But I thought I should make it more pertinent to the Indians.

Mistake By The Jake

by emd2k3 on Jun 15, 2011 10:19 AM EDT reply actions

Eh, I feel like this has been a popular schtick the past few years. On-base percentage is still very valuable, whether or not the market values it highly. Moneyball was in part taking advantage of market inefficiencies but it wasn’t its sole purpose.

Also, anyone else kind of tepid on making such major decisions about the structure of your team based off of such flawed statistics? I mean it’s obvious from the article the Rays are doing it. I just question how smart of an idea it is.

LGT's resident moderate Yankee hating fan.

by Joe. on Jun 16, 2011 2:54 AM EDT reply actions

The Indians have been developing their own metrics and collecting their own data on defense for the better part of a decade. It’s not like they’re using fielding percentage.

by Jay on Jun 16, 2011 7:26 AM EDT up reply actions