First-place on June 16: Commence Panic
by APV on Jun 16, 2011 11:06 AM EDT
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Print"There are few things as liberating as having your worst fears realized."
This is a quote from Conan O'Brien towards the end of what was a pretty funny and oddly moving commencement address given at Dartmouth College last weekend. It serves as a nice starting point for a consideration of where the first-place Cleveland Indians stand today. O'Brien went on, in his address, to say that it is how we respond to our failure to achieve an ideal that defines our trajectory...a cliched commentary, but one well delivered by the comedian.
The origin of the current 2011 season is in many ways born out of the realization of our greatest fears dating back to 2007. Up 3 games to 1 in the ALCS, with dueling Cy Young candidates Sabathia and Carmona lined up to face Boston, what is the worst that can happen? Heading into 2008, with all that optimism from 2007 and the players who provided that optimism in place, what is the worst that can happen? A few seasons later, few would argue that our worst fears had been realized. From that 96 win season in 2007, we won fewer than 70 games in 2009 and 2010. We had traded, in back to back years, Cy Young winning pitchers. Our team captain and starting catcher, as well as our starting shortstop, were also gone. Our best hitter was reduced to a mere shell of himself by lingering and mysterious injury, while our most exciting and dynamic player was out and facing an unprecedented microfacture surgery on the underside of his patella.
That is all old news, though. The exciting part is that on May 23rd of this year, following a 3-2 come from behind victory against the Boston Red Sox, we were a stunning 15 games over .500 and had the largest division lead in baseball by a sizeable margin. Back were the glorious days of the late '90s when the standings were just an afterthought to the boxscore itself. What is the worst that can happen?
What has happened is a widespread offensive drought, badly timed good and bad pitching performances, suddenly questionable defense, a reminder of the importance of good health and a frightening suspicion that fear of forced military servitude might be a compelling motivational factor. The Indians suddenly look a lot more like the team we feared they would be at the outset of the season than the team they actually were for the season's first 50 games.
And yet here we sit in first place. We are no longer 15 games over .500, but we are still +6. We have a chance today to take the series and reclaim sole bragging rights in the AL Central from Detroit. We probably do not have the talent to be the steamroller of a team we were for the season's first 50 games, but that stretch should give us all confidence that we have more talent than the last 20 games. We are probably somewhere in the middle. But where that puts us right now is in the middle of a pennant race even if it is still only June. A year ago we were 12.5 games out of first place. Two years ago we were 6.5 out of first. Three years ago we were 5.5 out. I don't care what is the worst thing that can happen...I'm enjoying what is happening now.
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It’s cliche, but you have to go to the old… “If before the season, I told you that the Indians would be in first place in the division on June 16th, you’d take that in a heartbeat…”
Yeah, but that doesn’t make this stretch any less painful to watch. In fact, I would argue it makes it even worse. We’ve seen them at their best and are currently suffering through watching them during what I hope is their worst. I just wish the decline was a little more gradual rather than crossing an imaginary line in the sand.
So OCAB has a great game and now is on the bench? I am not a manager but this seems odd, but hey maybe it Phelps swan song when Hafner gets back ?
why he should sit against righties is obvious.
why he played last night, i presume is not a national case. acta had a hunch, a legitimate reason, or simly wants to balance guys playing time with the aforementioned few lefty starters we’re due to face (see duncan option).
I still like this team. A lot.
I have no problems with fighting the Tigers tooth and nail for the rest of the year for first place even if we don’t prevail. A young team is better off going through a season where every win is big and meaningful, than breezing through a season always 6-8 games ahead of the second place team. And as Brick wrote above, “If before the season…” Amen.
A young team is better off going through a season where every win is big and meaningful, than breezing through a season always 6-8 games ahead of the second place team.
Uh, no it’s not.
Yeah, but after watching this team the past couple of weeks, are you still convinced they’re going to fight with the Tigers the rest of the year for first place? I don’t mean to sound overly pessimistic and I do realize this is just a really bad stretch during a very long year, but they’ve gone 6-16 since their peak, averaging 2.8 RPG and allowing 5.8, good for a -66 run differential.
day baseball
Lou Marson and Adam Everett apologist.
by Gradyforpresident on Jun 16, 2011 12:44 PM EDT reply actions
I don’t intend this to be an “all is well…nothing to see here” kind of piece. I did say about ten days ago that the canary is dead, and I think it is, but the team is not. Phelps’ promotion was the first (or second, if you count White) of several necessary moves. But I still believe the Indians have the right pieces in place, with a combination of luck and smarts, to ride this out to the finish in contention.
Does being in contention create pressure not to bring up guys and give them time to get seasoning though? Is the FO commitment different if they are sniffing first place? You seem to be implying the moves are still going to be made and the results may shake out positively. I tend to think that the moves might be different if you are looking at 2012/13 as your best chances and willing to suffer through some patchy results this year. If they find themselves within shouting distance now, the reaction might be different. Right?
Len Barker Perfect Game Attendee
by PortlandVinny on Jun 16, 2011 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Weglarz went deep twice tonight for Akron. Kipnis had a 2B and a HR in his first two ABs for Columbus.
Kipnis is on fire
Lou Marson and Adam Everett apologist.
by Gradyforpresident on Jun 17, 2011 8:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Anyone else get the feeling that if they do hang around the periphery of 1st and look to add (and at this point, maybe they become opportunistic about it being a starter or a right-handed bat, whichever) that Chisenhall could be dealt?
I go back to Jay’s piece on the neo-prospects and Hannahan’s stellar defense, I just don’t see that changing in terms of him being entrenched at third. Third also seems to be Donald’s spot who still seems more useful than Phelps if he can ever stay healthy. Valbuena still hasn’t completely bailed off the radar with his recent stretch.
The Chiz has had a middling year (at best) but still young for the league and carries that Top 30 prospect sheen at least from Prospectus.
But do we feel comfortable trading someone with Chisenhall’s upside while considering the team’s depth at that position includes Hannahan and a guy who hasn’t logged much time at the position? I like Donald, but I like him as a 2B.
Part of my point too is I thought the book on Chisenhall is that his ceiling isn’t all that high. But admittedly, I have no idea what I’m talking about.
I’ve read solid regular to potential all star, but of course that’s ceiling. Considering there are 16 qualified 3B in MLB and only 4 with an OPS above .800 with the median at .737, I’d have a hard time getting rid of him unless you get a pretty good offer. After all, I’d consider 3B to be one of our biggest holes, both at the ML level and down through the system.
A pretty good indicator of a team that’s not yet there – we’re more excited (legitimately) by guys in the minors than we are about just about anyone on the major league roster.
That isn’t true, and to the extent it is true, it’s our fallacy, not the club’s. None of these guys in the minors is expected to turn into Sizemore or Santana. And I mean none.
I would add, in all but the very best seasons — and I mean not just contending, but ridiculous, runaway leads in the race — we always look to the minors while fretting over deficiencies. We certainly did in 2005 and 2007, and won’t you be happy if this club ends up being as good as those?
I’ll grant your point about Santana. I think Pomerantz is expected to be a big time pitcher, however. And of course you’re right that looking at the minors occurs in “good” years too (although I also recall a lot of talk about guys who could be added from outside the organization in years like that. I’m not really hearing that now).
I overstated the point, but I do think the WAY in which people are talking about some of the minor league prospects reflects doubts about the current club (as well as excitement over what might happen over the next couple of years).
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