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The Breakdown: May 30-June 28



Record: 10-17
Overall:  41-36
Run Diff (Season): 88-125 (+8)
Old Mood: Kodiak with an inferiority complex
New Mood: Justifiably feeling inferior

  W L % GB
Detroit 43 36 .544 -
Cleveland 41 36 .532 1.0
Chicago
38 41 .481 5.0
Kansas City 33 46 .418 10.0
Minnesota 32 45 .416 10.0



@ Toronto: Lost 11-1, Won 6-3, Won 13-9

Texas: Lost 7-4, Lost 11-2, Lost 4-0, Lost 2-0

Minnesota: Lost 6-4, Won 1-0, Lost 3-2

@ NYY: Lost 11-7, Lost 4-0, Lost 9-1, Won 1-0

@ Detroit: Lost 4-0, Won 6-4, Lost 6-2

Pittsburgh: Won 5-1, Won 5-1, Won 5-2

Colorado: Lost 8-7, Lost 4-3, Won 4-3

@ San Francisco: Lost 4-3, Lost 1-0, Lost 3-1

@ Arizona: Won 5-4

THE BIG STORY: There's a popular baseball-ism about evaluating teams at the quarter turn or just after, meaning that you need a sample around 45 games to really get a handle on what a team is. The Indians made it to game 50 with a record of 31-19 and, as was outlined extensively in the last edition of this column, the team appeared legitimately awesome. Nearly as soon as the ink was dry on the personal newspaper I print and mail to myself and which contains only this column, the Indians set out undoing all of the good work they had done over the first fifty. The team has been putrid since that day, losing at home, losing on the road, and struggling, intensely, to score runs. Over the last twenty-seven games, the team has scored only 3.25 runs a game and this offensive ineptitude, along with injuries to a number of key players, including Shin-Soo Choo and Matt LaPorta, has led to much lineup shuffling—Adam Everett is now gone, Orlando Cabrera and Jack Hannahan have finally lost their starting jobs, and top prospect Lonnie Chisenhall has joined middle-of-the-pack prospect Cord Phelps in the Cleveland lineup. 

Besides general poor performance, the other major thread is that Shin-Soo Choo broke his thumb on an HBP in San Francisco and is out of the lineup for the foreseeable future.

Star-divide

 

THE BEST THING GOING: It would be inappropriate to select an offensive performance considering how terrible the offense has been, but I feel obligated to beat the drum a bit on a couple of guys. Carlos Santana, still wearing the scarlet letter of a low batting average, has OPS'd 826 in our sample and his phenomenal eye refuses to falter—on the season, he leads the Indians in walks, having drawn 53 free passes in 308 plate appearances (Choo is second with 31 BB's in the same number of PAs). His BB% is third in all of baseball, and puts him in some very good company. Carlos has obviously not reached the MVP-expectations that were foisted on him but he has maintained unbelievable plate discipline and is getting better. He is still the Indians best asset going forward. 

Secondly, it's worth noting that Hafner came back from the DL and didn't miss a step—he's been OPS'ing over 1000 since his return. It remains to be seen how many games Hafner can play but this is his best offensive performance in years. 

The actual best thing going might very well be the bullpen, which features five ERAs under 2.45. However, the peripherals are still a bit yawn worthy, with only Pestano, among the group with the minuscule ERAs, posting a K/9 over 7.4. Since ERAs don't mean much for relievers and I still haven't totally figured out how a number of these guys are succeeding, Rafael Perez chief among them, I'll turn to one of the very best things about the Indians season, period. 

If you thought back to the goals that many set for the 2011 Cleveland Indians season, they were centered on player development. While a focus on finding pieces for the future has evaporated in the heat of a pennant race (trade for Beltran!), the clear-headed among us have probably noticed that it's becoming increasingly difficult to deny that the Indians have two very good, young starters: 


W-L ERA WHIP K BB
2011 - Carlos Carrasco 7-4 3.62 1.21 53 23


W-L ERA WHIP K BB
2011 - Justin Masterson 5-6 2.98 1.32 75 35

 

Carrasco was brilliant over the last month, averaging over seven innings per start, posting a 3:1 K:BB and (ding ding ding) surrendering only one homerun. Masterson was nearly as good, going over six innings a start, posting a similar K:BB, and holding opponents to a 680 OPS. Masterson still struggles against lefties (OPS of 789) but he's showing that it's a problem he can work around and still be effective. Both of these pitchers are likely more middle of the rotation starter than frontline ace—that doesn't mean they're not extremely valuable players, though. 

NOT AS GOOD AS IT LOOKS: The aforementioned Rafael Perez, who has a K:BB of less than 2.0 and yet sports an ERA of 1.13. I doubt anyone is silly enough to want to acquire Perez for anything more than a bag of balls but, if they are, this is about as good as he's ever going to look. 

NOT AS BAD AS IT LOOKS: No, it's pretty much that bad. 

DON'T LOOK AT THIS: .207/.295/.337—Grady Sizemore since May 30.

30 IP, 13 BBs, 14 Ks, 8.70 ERA—Fausto Carmona since May 30.

Welcome to the future, ladies and gentlemen! 

THE RISKY PLAY: The Indians made one yesterday, bringing up Lonnie Chisenhall, he of the sweet swing that scouts love and the minor league stats that indicate  he might need more time. Still, there are way more chips to use, even with Phelps and Chisenhall in Cleveland. Jeanmar Gomez posted an ERA of 1.75 in five June starts and, at 23 years old, suddenly looks quite valuable. Similarly, it's not obvious Zach McAllister can carry his low strikeout rate to Cleveland and still succeed, but it does seem obvious that this is the pitcher the 24 year old is—he's biding his time before he can try his hand at the highest level. Scott Barnes is the most intriguing of the AAA starters, with his big K-rate and vacant stare. The pitching staff just doesn't quit—Huff was quite good in June, and Zach Putnam might be ready for a bullpen that needs him (not the one in Cleveland, currently), and Nick Hagadone is struggling with the AAA transition but still carries the best pedigree of the bunch. 

In addition to all the arms, Jason Kipnis looked like himself in June (948 OPS), Donald returned from the DL and began mashing (888 OPS), and Luis Valbuena refuses to go the way of Josh Barfield and forget how to dominate AAA (Luis had a 1074 OPS in June). In short, the Clippers roster is loaded with guys who look like they'll eventually contribute in the majors, even if none of those guys look like obvious stars. 

So, what's the risky play? I guess you could move any of these young players for help (Kipnis seems to be the trade chip du jour in these parts), or you could punt on even more veterans with the hope that these young guns can contribute. A truly insane person might suggest turning Asdrubal Cabrera's hot streak into assets the Indians valued more highly, and needed more desperately, but the truth is there's a decent argument that Asdrubal is hitting a natural peak, not a fluke one, and, besides, shortstop is not an organizational strength. 

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Comments

Display:

Excellent recap; however… FLAG for Huff as useful MLB pitcher inference.

by gte619n on Jun 28, 2011 2:36 PM EDT reply actions  

He hopes other teams’ front offices get their information on Huff from LGT. “This Huff guy is useful? Let’s trade for him!”

by Matt Y. on Jun 28, 2011 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

It’s hard to discern any difference between Huff.2011aaa and the Huff.2010aaa and Huff.2009aaa versions. Unless the virus database has been updated.

by YoDaddyWags on Jun 28, 2011 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

What would you call the person who puts the insane person’s thoughts to paper???

Great writeup and summary (except for the insanity at the end)…

"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge..." C. Darwin

by Spidey on Jun 28, 2011 3:55 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

We need this guy in the bullpen.

by Toxicadam on Jun 28, 2011 6:45 PM EDT reply actions  

Now that is a leg kick. Bob Feller is smiling.

Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.

by USSChoo on Jun 29, 2011 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

One random thought… not sure if this was brought up elsewhere, but barring any other bizarre injuries, one would think Chisenhall’s promotion indirectly spells the end for any scenario where Nick Johnson is added to the 25 man right? Clearly they value Hannahan too much and I can’t see him starting over LaPorta/Santana at 1B.

by cheech99 on Jun 28, 2011 7:35 PM EDT reply actions  

Johnson’s sitting out tonight with a sore wrist, he can’t play in more than three consecutive games…I think it was always a long shot and I think you’re correct in that it’s pretty much a no shot at this point.

by afh4 on Jun 28, 2011 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Down at C’bus, Jason Kipnis just hit a true missile off the top of the scoreboard in right center. The board is set well back of the wall and is a high jumbotron. It was a line drive that almost made it over and out of the park. The dude has some pop, and has made fairly steady improvement at 2B.

Still not a polished defender, but the bat is for real. The brass made an excellent decision converting him to 2B without messing around. No reason to think he is not in the starting lineup in Cleveland next year.

Never noticed it before, but the stadium announcer has a set call on home runs:

“Goodbyyyyyyye Coluuumbusss!”

by mcrose on Jun 28, 2011 8:42 PM EDT reply actions  

Law noted today in the MLB podcast that Kipnis’ bat is more ready than Chiz.

by The Spider That Bit Brian Giles on Jun 28, 2011 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Even without seeing them play, that seems pretty apparent just looking at their numbers. Being 18 months older probably doesn’t hurt, either.

by callmrplow on Jun 29, 2011 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

  1. for Kip, a high lofter to center that rode the jetstream out over the fence. Four solo hr’s for Cbus, Goedert and Philips with the other two.

Jeanmar Gomez tossing 5 shutout innings so far. Safe to say after some jockeying and a return from a Cleveland stint, that Gomez is the ace of the staff and first in line for a callup. He’s done a good job developing his offspeed pitches, and as a result his K’s are going up and he’s becoming a decent ML prospect at a still fairly tender age.

by mcrose on Jun 28, 2011 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Weird edit – #2 for Kip.

by mcrose on Jun 28, 2011 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

urp. 3 run HR given up by Gomez. His 4th on the season.

by mcrose on Jun 28, 2011 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Gomez leaves with 8 K’s thru 5+. I like him better than Talbot going forward. Good disposition for a pitcher, able to calm himself down with men on base and still learning new pitches.

by mcrose on Jun 28, 2011 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

McAllister has slightly better numbers than Gomez, though Gomez is younger and showing a better K% in AAA (but high BB% as well).

by hans on Jun 29, 2011 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Awesome. Any guess on distance if the scoreboard hadn’t interfered?

If you squint just right....you can sometimes see the ghost of Andy Marte...playing dominoes in the dugout.

by Seattle Tribe Fan on Jun 28, 2011 9:00 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Well over 400 – the impressive part was how quickly it got there. It was a line drive.

by mcrose on Jun 28, 2011 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Cool – thanks.

If you squint just right....you can sometimes see the ghost of Andy Marte...playing dominoes in the dugout.

by Seattle Tribe Fan on Jun 28, 2011 10:18 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Kipnis hit another…

by johio1 on Jun 28, 2011 9:22 PM EDT reply actions  

What are the chances that Kipnis or Gomez get called up soon?

by emily522 on Jun 29, 2011 11:21 AM EDT reply actions  

I think that would require a trading of Orlando Cabrera. I’m not sure what the team would do about Hannahan. I don’t think they would cut or demote him (not sure on his contract status off hand), but once Jason Donald is healthy and perhaps getting some reps in at 3B in AAA, than you’d have a supporting option at the position.

Having Phelps, Asdrubal Cabrera, Kipnis, AND Orlando Cabrera seems excessive unless they like Orlando better at 3B than Hannahan, which I have to doubt.

by hans on Jun 29, 2011 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Unless the season is absolutely over for the Indians by mid-August, I have to imagine that one of Hannahan or Orlando finished the year with the team.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Jun 29, 2011 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah that’s likely if only to keep depth options available. I have to think that Kipnis coming up knocks one of them out, but Donald may be kept in AAA as a depth option if anyone gets injured up on the big club. I think Kipnis will have to continue an offensive ascent for them to make a change sooner rather than later though.

by hans on Jun 30, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Phelps sent down if Kipnis came up.

by Roger Dorn on Jun 30, 2011 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

I wouldn’t necessarily be happy with that, but I could see the possible merit being infield depth, though with Valbuena tearing it up, there already is a decent option there. and Donald is basically another version of Phelps as is. I think it is worth the risk to cut/trade/attempt to demote one of Orlando or Hannahan.

by hans on Jun 30, 2011 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

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