Game 89: Blue Jays 7, Indians 1
by Ryan on Jul 10, 2011 6:11 PM EDT
in Game Recaps
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After taking two out of three from the Yankees and winning on Thursday in about as dramatic a fashion as you can, the Indians laid eggs in each of their final three games of their homestand. All phases of the game were lacking over the weekend, whether it be starting pitching, defense, or hitting with runners on base.
Carlos Carrasco, like in his last start, gave up a big inning early in the game. The Jays got on the board in the third when Eric Thames homered with a man on base. If Carrasco keeps the damage that inning to just two runs, the game might have turned out differently, but he allowed three more runs, all with two outs. He would be pulled after the inning, probably for a couple reasons: one, he had had three very taxing innings in a row (including a 35-pitch third inning), and two, with the All-Star Break coming up, Manny Acta could use the entire bullpen. Carrasco had command problems, falling behind often to a very talented lineup, and hung a lot of sliders in hitter's counts.
The offense had opportunities, but like in the previous games in this series, couldn't get that final hit to cap a rally. They loaded the bases in the first inning with one out, but Brett Cecil got out of the inning without allowing a run to score. Cecil was making his third start after returning to the majors, and wasn't exactly on his game; his velocity was several mph below his usual level, and he allowed nine base runners (six hits, three walks) in his six innings of work. The Indians scored one run while Cecil was in the game, and that run was unearned.
The Indians used most of their relievers today, and all but Rafael Perez pitched well. Perez, with second base open and two outs in the sixth, made a mistake on the plate to Jose Bautista, and Bautista hit a two-run double down the left field line. The Indians would get no closer than 5-1, but even so, that kind of mistake can't happen when facing a hitter like Bautista.
With Detroit's 2-1 victory, the Indians end the unofficial first half of the season a half-game out of first, and with a record of 47-42. It's a disappointing close to the first half of the season, but they're very much in the divisional race. I think all of us would have taken this outcome had it been offered us at the beginning of the season.
| Highest WPA | Lowest WPA | ||
| Santana | .066 | Carrasco | -.307 |
| Herrmann | .021 | Kearns | -.078 |
| Hafner | .014 | Sizemore | -.075 |
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A 3-4 record on this homestand wouldn’t have surprised me beforehand, given the way the Yankees dominated during the four game series in June. But dropping three straight is a tough way to go into the All-Star break and, Masterson aside, the starting pitching has been troubling of late.
by thestreaksofbenfrancisco on Jul 10, 2011 6:31 PM EDT reply actions
The only inning I saw was Pomeranz’s.
He started off very well, struck out the first batter (a lefty) on three pitches. The next two batters were right-handed, and he got a ground ball to the second baseman that the first baseman couldn’t pick (infield single) and a pop-up just out of the infield. So far, so good, no strong contact or anything. But then a fastball that was set up outside went right over the plate and over the fence. From there maybe he lost his composure because he walked a lefty, gave up a double to a righty and got pulled.
Steel Nick
He threw almost exclusively fastballs. Going back through the replay I see three curves, two against righties put in play for a grounder and a line drive double, and one way out of the strike zone to a lefty. I’m not much of a scout, so I can’t evaluate it on such little exposure.
He threw a great changeup for a swing and miss but I don’t think he ever went back to it.
Steel Nick
I saw two curves. The line-drive double was a changeup, I thought. I agree, his first changeup was very good.
That was my first look at him throwing more than a few pitches. My initial take is that he’s as advertised. It will come down to fastball command as to how dominant he can be. He’s too talented to not come up sometime next year, barring injury. But initially, I can see how he might end up being a high-pitch count guy who has trouble making it past the sixth. But that fastball is 93-95, with life.
Most would have been feeling pretty good if the record were 42-47 at this point.
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge..." C. Darwin
by Spidey on Jul 10, 2011 11:25 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Certainly I would have. That really puts it in perspective for me.
In the new Geico commercial, Marte sings "Let me be myself" on Wedge's front lawn (with the cavemen).
by V-Mart Shopper on Jul 11, 2011 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions
This is bull. This team won 44 of their first 81 games, and expectations have been raised. It’s a better team than we thought and I’m not going to apologize for holding them to that standard. Perspective is for after the season.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Jul 11, 2011 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Disagree. Upwards and onwards.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Jul 11, 2011 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s placing an awful lot of weight on Tomlin’s completely unsustainable start, Hannahan and OC briefly hitting, Brantley being productive, and a few other things. This team isn’t as good as they looked to start with. They played over their heads for awhile and continuing to hold them to that standard robs the joy of them still being better than we thought.
No way. Regression goes both ways, for one thing, and there are still several players who have not gone on a sustained hot streak. In addition, you have the old Billy Beane principle that divides the season into thirds—and we’re still in the third in which you build the team you want. The tweaks to the roster can be agonizingly slow with a front office that values smart roster management, but they are being made. Hannahan will not be an everyday player after the All-Star break and Talbot is almost certainly about to be replaced by someone who can be more effective (even if it takes a couple of tries to figure out who that is). I don’t pretend to know what they’re going to do with second, but based on the Phelps experiment I’m confident they’re going to settle on what they think is the most appropriate mix of offense and defense between the three guys by August 1.
Look, I don’t expect this team to make the World Series. I do expect them to be in a pennant race into September. They’ve earned that expectation.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Jul 12, 2011 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions
And another thing: what’s with all this negativity against Brantley? For two months, he played about to what you’d expect his abilities to be given his minor league numbers and his scouting profile (i.e. that he’d add at least Kenny Lofton power and perhaps more). There are a number of people here—including Jay before Brantley slumped—who think this slump means that was a mirage. But I just don’t see it. Sometimes a slump is a slump.
Again, regression goes both ways. I don’t normally like playing I-told-you-so, especially when hey, we’re all rooting for the same things, but you spent a lot of time last season and this offseason dismissing our 24-year-old, injury-plagued, highly thought of shortstop as a .683 OPS player as if that was all he’d ever be. Look, even in Cleveland, a team that wins 44 of its first 81 may just be capable of winning 44 of its next 81.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Jul 12, 2011 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions
I think regression only goes one way. The other ways is progression.
But I agree with you about Brantley. His OBP is still disappointing, but, completely unscientifically, my impression from watching him a lot more this year is that his approach at the plate has been much better and I’m much more optimistic about his upside than I was last year (and more optimistic than I am about LaPorta).
"Lotta heart in Cleveland." - Ian Hunter
by Denver Tribe Fan on Jul 12, 2011 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
You are confused as to what we mean by regression when we are using it in the context of baseball. Regression is return towards a central tendency, which is bidirectional in its possible trajectories. Progress, or progression, as you are using it would be an improvement in the expected performance or improvement in the true talent level of a player. Regression is not the opposite of progression. That would, I think, be more appropriately called decline in this context.
I was sort of trying to be funny, but I also stand corrected.
"Lotta heart in Cleveland." - Ian Hunter
by Denver Tribe Fan on Jul 12, 2011 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Wait, when was I down on Asdrubal? All the Cabrera bashing I’ve done has been directed at his grandfather.
I’ve never been a big believer in Brantley because I don’t see anything in his developmental numbers to make me think he will ever have any pop. When he isn’t getting on base, his value is extremely limited.
The pitching was the key to the hot start and, as it normalized, so did the team. I see us as a mediocre team that started out very well. You can’t throw out everyone’s track record because you like the first two months of this season more.
Entirely possible I mixed you up with junkballer with the Asdrubal thing.
You can’t throw out everyone’s track record because you like the first two months of this season more.
Watch me!
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Jul 12, 2011 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Ok, so maybe you can. I want you to be right and us to be really good.
I’m certain it wasn’t junkballer either, he’s a massive Asdrubal supporter. Perhaps it was a different erudite and strikingly handsome set of brothers.
Could be. I looked for support and couldn’t find it—and anyway, it was a silly personal attack I’m not interested in pursuing.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Jul 13, 2011 6:13 AM EDT up reply actions
I really do love the unbalanced divisional schedules. The entire second half is going to be mainly against divisional opponents (43 games total). 12 of them against the Tigers.
With no more games against the Yankees and Rays and only 4 against the Red Sox.
by Buckeye Brad on Jul 11, 2011 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah the team busted out of the gates in part due to not having to play the AL East (that perfect storm sweep of Boston aside) often in the first quarter of the season, then hit the AL East + west-coast trip + 9-away game National League vaunt that was a meatgrinder of sorts and the result is a half game out of first in a very winnable division. Could be worse.
We are still ahead of Detroit in the loss column
Lou Marson fan.
by Gradyforpresident on Jul 11, 2011 12:07 PM EDT reply actions
I’m no scout, but I thought Sizemore’s approach was pathetic in the first with the bases loaded and one out.
I’m no doctor, but I think decapitation kills people.
Trombone/creamy/soda.
by Joel D on Jul 11, 2011 2:10 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
You never know where Ray Milland will pop up.
by YoDaddyWags on Jul 11, 2011 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Sizemore’s out of zone attempts rate has been atrocious this season. I wish I heard what specifically might be the cause of this. The fact that it’s somewhat of an advanced statistic (I mean it does require one to type in www.fangraphs.com and do a search then also spend a little time researching what the metric means) seems to lead to none of the local beat writers being aware of it and nobody seems to be grilling either Sizemore or the coaching staff about it.
Sports Business Journal’s John Ourand tweeted this morning that Tribe ratings are up a whopping 80% this year. The second biggest surge in Major League Baseball is the Texas Rangers which have seen a 35% increase in tv viewership.
Is this supposed to be a surprise? Two years as essentially a last-place team, followed by the best record in the majors for six weeks or so. Of course ratings would be up 80%. Hell, I personally am probably watching them 80% more.
Im also enjoying the games 67.4% more than I did last year.
"Mixed emotions. Rather see him hit PEDroia [with that pitch]. I don’t care if he is in the dugout"
by Gradysmanldy on Jul 12, 2011 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
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