Game 106: Indians 9, Red Sox 6
by Ryan on Aug 1, 2011 10:35 PM EDT
in Game Recaps
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The ongoing theme for these recent games have been decent to very good pitching performances, but poor offense. So any wins have been coming by the come-from-behind route, or a pitcher's duel. If the Indians give up more than three or four, they usually lose. Tonight, though, the Indians won a shootout, scoring nine runs in the process. Five of those runs came off the struggling John Lackey, but they also struck for four runs off the Boston bullpen, including three off of Daniel Bard.
Josh Tomlin got through his usual six innings, but was hit very hard. He didn't walk a batter, but allowed 10 hits, including two home runs. He would have given up more than five runs if not for two fine defensive plays. In the second inning, Tomlin knocked down a liner hit back to him, and then started a rundown with the runner on the third, and actually tagged Josh Reddick out after Lonnie Chisenhall missed him. In the third, Kevin Youkilis tripled, and after a poor relay back to the infield, attempted to go home, but Tomlin retrieved the ball and made a perfect throw to the plate to nab the Boston third baseman.
The Indians took a 5-3 lead in the sixth thanks to two homers, another rare occurrence. After Jason Kipnis doubled, Asdrubal Cabrera homered down the right field line, and Travis Hafner followed with a solo shot to the Boston bullpen. But in the bottom of the inning, Jarrod Saltalamacchia hit a two-run homer off Tomlin despite breaking his bat in the process. So the game became a battle of bullpens.
Daniel Bard came into the game in the eighth inning having not surrendered a run since May 23, coincidentally against the Indians. Of the 11 runs he'd given up this season, 6 of them have been scored by Cleveland. And before the inning was over, the Indians would add to that total. Jason Kipnis opened the inning with a single, and Asdrubal Cabrera hit a line drive that just cleared the fence (and off an unfortunate fan's knee) down the right field line for a two-run homer, his second of the night, though originally ruled a single. Matt LaPorta would double later in the inning off of Randy Williams to cap a key three-run inning. Jason Kipnis added another insurance run in the ninth with a home run.
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1,400+ comments in the game thread. Anyone care to summarize?
Nice start to the month.
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge..." C. Darwin
by Spidey on Aug 1, 2011 10:44 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Dear God no idea it was that high. Incredible performance
Lou Marson fan.
by Gradyforpresident on Aug 1, 2011 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions
It was epic.
@grantgw - sports and Cleveland and Columbus stuff
by woodsmeister on Aug 1, 2011 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Even we can hit Lackey.
We can’t hit anyone. Tomlin’s doomed.
LEAD! EMILY!
Dang it Tomlin
DROOBS!
SUCK IT SOX!
Then you asked for a summary.
What if...
by Danieldelamaiz on Aug 1, 2011 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
hardhat is a jerk, we are all nerds, jennifer love hewitt is hot, sarah michelle gellar might not be, hulk hogan v. ric flair v. the rock would have been a great wrestling match, ubaldo lives in his mom’s basement and fenway, the redsox, and pedroia all suck.
Also, Emily is a rally starter.
by Ryan Kelsey on Aug 1, 2011 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Add in Macho Man and Roddy Piper.
And what of Asdrubal???
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge..." C. Darwin
by Spidey on Aug 2, 2011 12:39 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Reading those threads after I knew the outcome of the game was fun.
I kind of like the line up tonight. Well, if we imagine that Kipnis will hit.
did anyone talk about how the live “k-zone” is one of the worst sports broadcasting ideas ever?
by AllenSmith on Aug 2, 2011 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Ya’ll are making me regret canceling my cable. Even my grandma called me to tell me to watch it on ESPN.
I just want to believe.
That’s right. You can survive quite well without ESPN. I gave it up last summer after the Lebron show.
But I am traveling and just happened to tune in to see highlights (no MLBTV) – when did Stuart Scott get so old???
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge..." C. Darwin
by Spidey on Aug 2, 2011 12:43 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
That’s not a picture from the game, is it? Asdrubal’s batting right-handed there. In this game, he faced right-handers all five times (Lackey 3 times, Bard, Albers), and batted left-handed.
"By being the manager and just playing whoever I want." - Acta on how he would choose to split playing time between Kearns and Buck.
Right. The white jerseys that say “Indians” on the chest and the Wahoo helmet are clues.
Il faut d'abord durer.
Good day to be an Indians fan. Bad day to be that lady’s knee.
Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.
by USSChoo on Aug 2, 2011 2:00 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
My wife came in the room because I was screaming at the TV – something about the angle of the ricochet and Hammy and Rick should’ve stayed awake during HS geometry classes
OCab is no longer my bête noire.
I was so confused that Undermanning was convinced it would stay a single. It clearly went over and hit something.
- It was pretty stunning to watch them hit like that after what they’ve done in the last couple of months.
- Lackey had a really good cutter/slider early…but in the middle innings, the break wasn’t sharp and they hammered him.
- Tomlin is a good athlete, and those defensive plays showed that. Not sure if it’s still the case, but he’s so quick to the plate that I don’t believe he’s had anyone have an official steal attempt against him all year.
- The rest appeared to really help Pestano and CPerez with their stuff. Pestano was electric.
3rd bullet is true, at least prior to this game. Hammy mentioned it on the radio.
"Mixed emotions. Rather see him hit PEDroia [with that pitch]. I don’t care if he is in the dugout"
I’m all for Tomlin being a good defender and quick to home, but I’d prefer if he were also better at run prevention.
Of course. But I think the point is that he does all the little things well, and so if you’re going to score runs, you have to get hits off him. He won’t walk you, he’ll play good defense, and he’ll control the running game. And this helps explain how he’s able to be an effective starting pitcher without being able to break 90 or have one plus pitch. Obviously his control is the biggest factor.
I think I kind of know where you’re going with this Andrew…we’re entering Sowersian territory. He’s struggled lately relative to where he was earlier. I have no idea if Tomlin can continue to do this next year and beyond, but I appreciate what he’s done this far and that he’s fun to watch. As someone said earlier (I believe Acta), you don’t have to wait around long to find out what’s going to happen. He’ll either get you out or you’ll knock him around a bit.
I recognize the things he does well but a lot of the trends are alarming; he does produce some excellent starts but he also has 1 QS in his last four starts—and a QS is not great shakes in this offensive climate.
I think the “five innings” thing has led to him being very overrated by the likes of Manning, Hamilton, etc. His ERA+ is 92 and falling. Certainly I want him to right the ship but, the current trend is towards a significantly below average pitcher.
by afh4 on Aug 2, 2011 11:06 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
No, he has 2 QS in his last 4. After getting 9 QS in his first 10 starts, he got belted 3 times in a row; since then, 6 QS in his last 9.
His 15-7 QS record puts him 4th in the Central behind Verlander (21-3), Masterson (17-5) and Buerhle (16-5).
Quality starts are up this year (55% in the AL, compared to 53/46/48/48 going backward to 2007), and they don’t translate into wins as often—Chicago has 12 more QS than victories this year—but it’s still a useful number.
The radar had him throwing a couple of 91s up in the zone, which he threw trying to get a 3rd strike; one was fouled off, and one was called a ball. It’s possible the Salty HR was similar, but I didn’t see a replay and I don’t know if he intentionally goes upstairs early in the count. I was very impressed with his last 3 innings, outside of the HR, because he couldn’t keep the ball down early and paid the price. But he seems smart and determined, and his quick pace helps him keep hitters off stride, too.
QS > ERA or ERA+, I think.
Right, and 1-3 is not a good record in QS. Call me a pessimist, but I’m not prepared to give him any benefit of the doubt—he’s always looked to me like a pitcher teetering on the edge and I’m afraid he’s gone off it. I will take everything I can get from him but I can’t shake the fact that success built primarily on walk rate is something I associate with guys like Carlos Silva, Josh Towers, late career Paul Byrd, and Zach Duke. In other words, guys who go over that cliff very quickly.
A the same time, maybe he’s Mark Buehrle.
Per 7foot3 below, I think looking at Tomlin’s most recent record makes some sense since he’s a player that’s still adjusting and being adjusted to; it’s obviously not totally fair, though.
So there have been vast adjustments made in the two weeks since he had four straight QS against top ten offenses? Maybe, but I’m skeptical. I agree that he is a guy who is going to always be walking a fine line, but we’re overreacting. Mediocre pitchers are going to go through stretches like that. I’m trying to garner some value out of fangraphs’ plate discipline stats, but it’s hard to tell which ones are truly sustainable. Even so, nothing there truly sticks out. The guy is a mediocre pitcher who has done a solid job keeping his team in the game and not burning out his bullpen. Add in the minimum salary and a team in this market should be fine with that at the back of the rotation.
As much as we’d like every pitching prospect to develop like Masterson has, or to be able to buy front of the rotation starters, those things just aren’t going to happen. We’re going to have to live with guys like Tomlin, and hope to find a way to separate the guys who are going to be able to put together an acceptable run of 30-40 starts from the guys like Huff of 09 and 10, which, I admit, may be darn near impossible.
I don’t know if it’s an adjustment by the league or (as noted) he’s a guy that teeters on the edge and has no margin for error. He’s been missing a lot early in the count by razor margins (last night he threw a lot of 1-0 counts, by eyeball test) and generally JUST missed on pitches. He gets into hitters counts and they tee off on him.
Also, seems like the Sox did a great job of driving crappy pitches. A lot of awkward swings produced hard hit balls.
"Mixed emotions. Rather see him hit PEDroia [with that pitch]. I don’t care if he is in the dugout"
by Gradysmanldy on Aug 2, 2011 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
11 first pitch strikes, 10 balls, 5 balls in play (from which 3 infield outs, a single and a homer).
Wrong again! 11 balls, 10 strikes (9 looking and 1 foul ball). Balls in play were accurately reported. More coffee for me, or straight to the alcohol?
Also against the Red Sox, who happen to have a pretty decent offense.
And let’s face it, Tomlin probably isn’t the guy who was among the better starters in the league for the first month – he’s a #4 starter at best. Considering this team had 1 starter last year with more than 10 starts with an ERA+ above 90, I’ll take a 92 from our #4/5 pitcher who averages over 6 IP per game.
I should also add this is especially true while he’s still cheap. Didn’t we give Paul Byrd $21M expecting pretty much this type of production?
Yes, but I think the difference is that with Tomlin, we can’t really expect it.
by Jay on Aug 2, 2011 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Right, and 1-3 is not a good record in QS
I’m no expert, but isn’t this a SSS?
"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway
I have felt the same way that he looked like he was teetering on the edge, but I am not going to stop giving him the benefit of the doubt or rag on him too much because of a 4 start sample size (especially if you expand it to 6 starts, he is 3-3 in Quality starts)
What we saw from him in July was solid and I think what we can expect from him in the short term. He still may adjust more too like you said.
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
First 10 starts- 65 IP, 2.74 ERA, babip .197, 68% pitches for strikes, 18% looking, 8% swinging, 49 hits 10 walks, .64 GB ratio, .390 SLG
Next 12 starts- 75 IP, 5.40 ERA, babip .293, 68% pitches for strikes, 19% looking, 8% swinging, 83 hits, six walks, .68 GB ratio, .477 SLG
Line drive pct is the same (21%) and Pitchfx suggests that, if anything, he’s gaining velocity. The only number that leaps out at me is the babip. He was extraordinarily lucky early in the year and has regressed toward league average. Without the luck, he’s just not that good.
Formerly fwembt
And who knows if the 293 BABIP isn’t still on the lucky side? It’s always hard to figure an individual pitcher’s BABIP level. Andrew’s comps, for instance: Silva 313, Towers 309, Duke 330; late Byrd 294. Tomlin has walked fewer batters, allowed fewer hits and struck out slightly more than any of these comps, and has a 260 BABIP and 4.30 ERA for his first 34 MLB starts. But with a 300 BABIP over his last 13 starts, he’s given up over 10 hits per nine, and begins to look unsatisfactory.
I’m enjoying watching this story unfold, whichever way it goes.
This is a great set of data, really. You could look at it non-empiracally and suggest that when he’s missing, he’s getting more of the plate, leading to a higher BABIP and SLG on the pitches that DO get hit.
IE, balls in play = less quality.
"Mixed emotions. Rather see him hit PEDroia [with that pitch]. I don’t care if he is in the dugout"
excellent breakdown. It really is all about BABip in this case, it seems.
"I want to be playing at the end of October or the end of September -- not just at the beginning of April." —Grady
Although an interesting wrinkle is that Tomlin’s “secondary skills” — defense and controlling the running game — become even more important when his luck is bad.
In addition, if Tomlin really is an “impact defender,” that will in fact keep his BAbip a little lower than the league average — as any impact defender playing behind him would.
by Jay on Aug 2, 2011 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I remember back when he was dominating I looked up the #s and saw that he had that BABIP and I knew then it was unsustainable. I even was thinking that once he fell, he would be pitching around the mid-4.50 range in ERA
I teach good life choices. That’s why I almost didn’t graduate High School.
Intensive Purposes? I could care less...
your whole argument is a fallacy!
Couldn’t decide which comment to post this as a reply to. This isn’t directed solely at you, just an interesting piece to the argument in favor of Tomlin.
He is 5th in all of baseball on the K/BB leaderboard. The others in the top 10 include Halladay, Haren, Lee, Verlander, Hamels, Zimmermann, Price, Kershaw, Bumgarner. That’s some mighty fine company.
Also, perhaps we should’ve taken the chance on Bartolo.
This is all good and true, but looking at that leaderboard, there are only 2 pitchers in the top 30 with both an ERA and an FIP over 4, and those are Tomlin at #5 and Lilly at #18. You still gotta get guys out.
Stunning is right. It looked like a different team.
Tomlin deserves credit for his sharp defensive play despite getting hit hard. Gold glove?
Right now, I have more confidence in Raffy than Sipp.
Probably noted by others, but Nick Johnson has started to hit a bit in Columbus. Not sure how, or if, he fits on the current roster, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he shows up at some point.
In a tent on the Georgia-Armenian border. An active gamethread pretty well exceeds my internet capacity.
No…the only significant travels I’m making on a daily basis is the half mile to and from the archaeological/paleontological site I work at. Many years ago when I was doing a much longer and far flung trip i did keep a blog, but that has long since been removed from the net.
I’m sure that he’s here September 1, unless the Clippers need him to defend their titles.
@grantgw - sports and Cleveland and Columbus stuff
by woodsmeister on Aug 2, 2011 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions
He’s in a great situation – he can take as long as he needs to rehab and get his swing back, and the only thing keeping him from playing time is Matt LaPorta. The only place better for him to have landed would have been pre-Derek Lee Pittsburgh.
@grantgw - sports and Cleveland and Columbus stuff
by woodsmeister on Aug 2, 2011 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Sunday I was all like, “Oh man we sold the farm and we suck.” and last night I was all like “WE’RE GONNA WIN THE WORLD SERIES THERE’S NO WAY WE CAN’T.”
Tonight should be interesting.
Forcing myself to be reasonable about tonight; Beckett vs. Huff is less than ideal, to say the least. The hinge is wednesday (winnable game) before getting Bedard in his first start vs. our ace. 2-4 in Boston would be very satisfying.
"Mixed emotions. Rather see him hit PEDroia [with that pitch]. I don’t care if he is in the dugout"
by Gradysmanldy on Aug 2, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Jared Head just went yard for the Clips in their Businessman’s Special. Z-Mac downt 3-2 to the Tides in the 4th.
@grantgw - sports and Cleveland and Columbus stuff
could you imagine if we could hit at a level remotely close to how we did last night for the remainder of the year? with our rotation and bullpen? With how weak the rest of the division is?
Fuhgettaboutit
I know, it’s sad. Our 2007 team went through a similar offensive funk during the summer, but had snapped out of it by this time.
August was the lowest-scoring month in 2007, but the pitching was a run better per game in August and September than it had been in the first four months.
I remember what sparked that resurgence…..DROOBS.
"Mixed emotions. Rather see him hit PEDroia [with that pitch]. I don’t care if he is in the dugout"
by Gradysmanldy on Aug 2, 2011 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Valbuena with a walkoff homer for the Clippers. Valbuena may be the definition of an AAAA player.
@grantgw - sports and Cleveland and Columbus stuff
Also, LaPorta has really improved at 1B this year. He might still be the bane of my existence at the plate on a regular basis, but he is getting better with the glove.
Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.
Remember how terrible he looked initially? This is one more surprising thing about this season.
by MTF on Aug 2, 2011 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m glad we’re getting in Bard’s head now and laying the groundwork for a meltdown against us in the ALCS.
by cleveland teamer on Aug 2, 2011 8:37 PM EDT reply actions
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