Playing Offseason GM:
I was a huge fan of the Ubaldo Jimenez trade from this past summer, but however I also feel as though Chris Antonetti might have put the Indians window on a Cleveland Indians championship solely on the 2012 and 2013 seasons and should plan this offseason accordingly. That means no Orlando Cabrera, Mike Redmond or Adam Everetts signing contracts and winning jobs on the 25 man roster. He's got to go big or go home to compete with Detroit - but I think it could be done. We already have tons of talent in the organization at the MLB level and are only a few pieces away in my opinion. So I am going to play offseason GM here and lay out a plan that I think could get the Cleveland Indians into the playoffs - and hopefully a world championship - in 2012
Trade #1: My first idea centers around two outfielders from Florida. Both are very young, very good, and are exactly not on the greatest terms with their current organizations. The first one, if you haven't guessed by now, is Logan Morrison. Morrison just filed a grievance for his demotion to Triple-A after he apparently no showed an event, the Marlins seem like they are growing tired of his tweeting and he has had some scuffles with teammates. Right now could be the time to "buy low" on Morrison. He is still just 23 years old, and despite having a "down year" this he is still the owner of a 116 OPS+ this season and a 124 OPS+ last year as a rookie. He had a .914 OPS his last year in Triple-A. The other outfielder I am after is B.J. Upton. Tampa had explored trading him at the deadline this season and reports say with the raise he is due in arbitration he could actually be a non-tender candidate. I know he has been a .240 hitter the last three years and has really never taken that "next step" to one of the games true elite players everyone thought he would after a 24 home run season in 2007 but he still has loads of POWER and loads of SPEED something this team is lacking. And as a bonus he hits right handed. He also is - in my opinion one of the top 3 defensive outfielders in all of baseball year in and year out. It would be like having Gutz all over again - expect this version of Gutz has the talent to put up a 30/30 season.
It might take a little more to get Morrison than it would Upton (potentially being non-tendered?) but I am going to call both teams and offer one time "top prospect" Matt LaPorta (while his name still has even the slightest trade value), package him with Ezequiel Carrera (seems like the Florida teams like Carrera type players) and relief pitcher Bryan Price who had a terrific season in Akron. If need be maybe I could throw in another prospect in the lower levels to make the deal get done. So why offer these guys? The Rays currently have Casey Kotchman as their starting first basemen and despite how sick we are of LaPorta he still has sick minor league stats - he is still young and his name has to have at least some minor value to it. He also has played some LF so even with Gaby Sanchez at first base for the fish they might still have interest. Carrera is a decent to good 4th OF who helps offset losing their respective outfielder. Bryan Price is a good relief prospect who should reach the majors sometime soon and probably has the ceiling to be a back end of the pen guy. This is my offer and whatever team from Florida accepts first I am doing business with. It gives us nice depth if Grady dosen't play much next year or if Michael Brantley is really just a fringe starting LF or realistically maybe even more of a 4th OF.
Trade #2: I have lots of friends in LA and we talk baseball often. My understanding is that Halo fans view Kendry Morales in the same light we view Grady Sizemore. We love him, keep our fingers crossed hoping he returns to old all-star form, but don't really expect much of anything from him. It was two years ago Morales was basically an MVP candidate and now the Halos have rookie of the year candidate Mike Trumbo racking in LA and top prospect C.J. Cron in the minors. Even if this is a perfect "buy low" situation we are still going to have to give up a lot - which is why I am prepared to offer all-star Pure Rage straight up. It is great having a closer for once but I am willing to make this trade because I feel first base is our biggest weakness and MLB ready arms are our biggest strength - and vise verse for the Angels. They do have Walden closing games for them and he is having a fine rookie year - but he also leads the league is blown saves and the Halos don't have a security blanket for him. Morales has two years left until he is a free agent which is perfect for the window of opportunity we have.
Trade #3: Given the state of the Chicago Cubs a full blown rebuild might be in the works. And if it is - I want in. Losing Carrasco for at least the next calendar year really sucks and suddenly makes us in the market for another starter. We would probably be ok signing a BOR guy for a few mill or hoping Huff/Kluber/Gomez/Whoever else could take a job and run with it - but hey go hard or go home lets try and win a dang championship. That is why I am going to try and pry loose Matt Garza. The Cubs pitching depth is terrible and they need to start looking into the future - Garza isn't going to be on their next playoff team. I am going to give Chicago some good MLB ready depth to start building on. They are going to get Cord Phelps and his .870 OPS he put up in Triple A. I am also going to let them choose two of Huff/Gomez/Kluber as possible fixtures in their future rotation. Huff despite how much my eyes tell me he sucks - has a 3.40 ERA in the American League. Gomez has outstanding numbers in Triple-A and has held his own in Cleveland. Kluber might be the most "talented" of the three. So they pick what two they want - and the 4th player in the deal is Frank Herrmann - who can slide into their pen.
Trade #4: I give my movie co-star, Billy Beane a call. Beane dosen't give a crap about "saves" and has been known to trade away his closers, plug another guy into the role and watch them succeed more than the guy that came before him. Bailey's name was dangled at the deadline this year and I think I have a guy Billy Beane is gonna love. He walks a ton, has loads of power and his average leaves something to the imagination. Perfect fit for Moneyball. Nick Weglarz is going to Oakland along with Corey Burns, who had 35 of those worthless saves himself down in Akron, and another arm to add depth, something along the lines of Espino/Berger/Langwell - or heck even two of them. We are getting a guy for the next three years with a career ERA+ of 210 and WHIP of 0.96!!
So here is my 2012 opening day roster - no Mark Grudzielanks or Jason Michaels this season. (I will try and get Frankenstein Duncan to come back as Triple A depth for whever Hafner's first DL stint is though.)
C - Carlos Santana, Lou Marson
1B - Kendry Morales
2B - Jason Kipnis, Jason Donald
3B - Lonnie Chisenhall, Jack Hannahan
SS - Asdrubal Cabrera
OF - Michael Brantley, Grady Sizemore, Shin-Soo Choo, Morrison/Upton
DH - Travis Hafner
SP - Jimenez, Garza, Masterson, Carmona, Tomlin
RP - Bailey, Pestano, Perez, Sipp, Smith
Last 2 pen spots - ST battle between Hagadone, Putnam, Judy, Bryson, Lee, Talbot and probably a few arms I invented on minor league contracts.
So what do you fellas think - whats the over/under on this team? 92 wins?? Lets take home a championship!!!
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This is exactly what I’ve been going on about on a few game recap threads here and there: the go big or go home mentality. By hook or by crook we need to position ourselves as the front-runner for the next two years — since that’s the bed we made by trading White and Pom. I was speaking (writing) in terms of FA acquisitions, however, trades like these will do just fine.
Added bonus of your scenario: not having to demolish my nails watching a Chris Perez save — or non-save, natch — situation.
Rather scared. Inquiring about dog.
I like everything except for wanting to dump Chris Perez. I find that quite short sighted.
Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.
If we could somehow convert Perez (albeit Perez + somebody else, for certain) into a reliable 1B option, I’d be alright with promoting Pestano. Or if that doesn’t work, letting a committee duke it out for single closer supremacy.
Rather scared. Inquiring about dog.
I don’t get a chance to watch most of the games, but from the boxscore as well as several baseball commentators, I’ve gleaned that Perez is not the closer that his oversized personality/reputation makes him out to be. He’s like Carmona of the back-end: he can get out the side or have 2 hit batsmen and WHIP of 1.7. What I’m suggesting is that should Vinnie not cut it as closer after an extended try-out, we have several options that we can float in committee format, with the idea that we end up with a single closer, a la Tampa Bay settling on Farnsworth this year.
Rather scared. Inquiring about dog.
I like the trade targets, (especially Garza, Morales, and Morrison), but I don’t think they come that cheap. I mean, maybe someone looks at Matt LaPorta and thinks he could put it all together, but at best he’d be a throw in in a deal. In a risk adverse way, I’d look to move him if he has any value on the trade market (i.e. if another team want’s him tossed in to complete a deal I’d do it), entering his age 27 season he may be able to completely turn it around, but at this point he’s more likely not to do that and a 27 year old with one fewer option years who only plays 1B is going to be an almost “0” net return.
Cord Phelps has to have some value I would imagine, but then it get’s tricky after that. None of those "C/C+ prospect pitchers in the minors vaulted themselves up the ranking all that much. I think Morrison may be moved and it would be a great “buy low” move if so, like you mentioned.
Anyone’s thoughts on trading Asdrubal Cabrera and going with Donald at SS? This will possibly the peak of value in his career. If we were able to get a starter and a league average 1B both with team control/contract for 2-3 years—these are hypothetical of course, perhaps these players exist, perhaps they don’t, but Garza does fit into that category, and ironically Carlos Pena would be a similar fit for the first base job, but he’ll be a free agent.
Given that Asdrubal has only been an All-Star for one season, and he’s ending it so poorly, I don’t think we’d be selling high on him. He is our number-one candidate for a long-term deal at the moment.
I think we could get a haul for him, but I don’t think we’d be a better team for it. We don’t need a roster full of All-Stars, but can we really win if we don’t have any?
Like Hans, I think these proposed trade packages are very optimistic.
The biggest problem for the Tribe this offseason is that we don’t have many assets to trade (unless you get aggressive and consider moving Asdrubal / Masterson / Kipnis etc). I think Upton might be a possbility, although the FO presumably made a move for him at the deadline and came up short.
Morrison would be very intriguing because he’s not the kind of personality the Shapiro-era Tribe has been fond of. But I don’t think we have enough to prise him from Florida.
I think the best route would be to look for a deal akin to the DeRosa trade in ‘09. We gave up three(?) unspectacular relief prospects in that one but were able to make it work by taking on DeRosa’s remaining contract. The key to this offseason will be how much payroll Dolan can add. If he can afford $10-15m on top of arb raises, that gives Antonetti a great opportunity to add a bat and maybe a veteran SP.
by thestreaksofbenfrancisco on Sep 18, 2011 8:57 PM EDT reply actions
The outfielder I’d like to target is the loser of the Philly competition, Mayberry vs Brown. Hopeflly Brown wins the competition because I don’t think the asking price for Mayberry would be as high.
How would you guys feel about signing Derrek Lee to a 1-year deal? He’d be an upgrade both defensively and offensively at 1st and there’s always the chance of him regaining some of his old form. The downside is that he’d likely cost around $7M and he’s a type B free agent, so we’d lose our 2nd round pick (do I have that right?).
Well he wasn’t really “much” of an upgrade offensively, he’s had a 105 OPS+ for a first baseman, which isn’t all that good. He’s also entering his age 36 season. But, he seems to be at least above replacement level defensively as you mentioned, and he’s going to be on a one year deal so the risk is limited. I don’t like the Type B aspect for such a middling player. Here’s the arguement that you might as well go with a Shelly Duncan/Matt LaPorta option because you’ll at least have the upside of LaPorta entering his age 27 season and Duncan has shown that he potentially could put up a ~105 OPS+ in expanded plate appearances.
Or possibly sign a LH batter to platoon with Duncan if they’re not convinced about LaPorta. Mills could be another option to platoon with Duncan, though I suspect they’ll want Mills to start off 2012 in AAA and get off to a good start to finish him off before he makes his ML debut.
One note – it’s interesting about the idea that LaPorta has been pretty much a “guess” hitter when it comes to pitch recognition – that might not have only explained LaPorta’s problem, but it might have also explained Andy Marte’s problem as well and why he never made it in the Majors either despite doing so well at AAA (LaPorta still could, but the odds are long at this point unless he does a quick turnaround).
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.

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