Shelley Duncan

by Ryan on Sep 20, 2011 6:12 AM EDT in Analysis

Power is not generally an undervalued commodity, especially in the recent pitching-dominant years, but the Indians were able to add it via minor-league free agency.

Shelley Duncan, the son of former Indian Dave Duncan, was drafted by the New York Yankees in the second round of the 2001 Draft (65th overall). His minor-league career was not spectacular, but he did show from the beginning of it the ability to hit for power, even if other aspects of his game weren't that attractive. Always old for his league, he first made it to AA in his Age 25 season, and his fifth professional season. He would spend two years in Trenton, and would finally make it to AAA in 2007, at the age of 27. But a very good season with Columbus, and an injury to Kevin Thompson, bought him a ticket to the majors. The Yankees purchased his contract, and he appeared in 34 games for New York, mostly as a Designated Hitter. He hit .257/.329/.554 in his 83 Plate Appearances, hitting 7 home runs in his limited playing time.

He started the 2008 season on the 25-man roster, but didn't hit, and was optioned to AAA on June 5. A couple weeks later, he separated his shoulder while making a catch, and missed almost two months. I believe that he was outrighted off the 40-man roster some time during the 2008 season or possibly that winter. He would rejoin Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in early August, and post an .848 OPS in 60 games. He would play almost the entire 2009 season in AAA, hitting .277/.370/.546 with 30 home runs, which won him AAA MVP honors. But he was doing this as a 29-year-old, and in his ninth minor-league season, so when the Yankees outrighted him again (after a very short September cup of coffee), he refused the assignment and elected to become a free agent.

He signed a minor-league contract with the Indians, and his contract was purchased on May 19th after Grady Sizemore went on the Disabled List. He played some both corner outfield positions and some first base, hitting .231/.317/.419 in 259 Plate Appearances with the Indians. He didn't start every day, but often made a pinch hitting appearance on days when was on the bench.

This season, Duncan started the season with the Indians, and has spent of the year in Cleveland. He was optioned to Columbus three times; his first stint in June was just for 16 days, and his stint in July and early August was about three weeks, and he spent August 14-19 in Columbus (he was recalled when Jason Kipnis went on the Disabled List. He's played regularly since his return, and is in the midst of his best stretch of hitting in his major-league career.

There's usually a reason why a hitter with power has only gotten 631 major-league Plate Appearances, and although Duncan had the misfortune of trying to break into a roster with no shortage of power hitters, his defensive limitations slowed his path to the majors. He can play left field and first base, but not that well. He has a good arm, but little range in the outfield.

The one thing he does well is hit for power, and that alone makes him a useful player; in 468 Plate Appearances with the Indians, he's hit 21 home runs, and power has been sorely lacking from the traditional power positions. He's not going to be the Tribe's starting left fielder or first baseman next season, but he's going to be on the roster in some capacity. Travis Hafner, even if he's healthy, is no longer an everyday player, and neither is Grady Sizemore.

Did I mention that Duncan can hit a fastball?

Player Value

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	PA	Rbat	Rbaser	Rroe	Rdp	Rfield	Rpos	Rrep	RAR	WAR	oRAR	oWAR	dWAR	Salary	Pos
2007	27	NYY	AL	83	2	0	0	0	1	-2	3	4	0.4	3	0.3	0.1	$	D/397
2008	28	NYY	AL	65	-5	0	1	1	-1	-1	2	-3	-0.3	-2	-0.2	-0.1	$398,300	3/9
2009	29	NYY	AL	15	-2	0	0	0	-1	0	1	-3	-0.3	-1	-0.1	-0.2	$	/9D
2010	30	CLE	AL	259	2	-1	0	-0	4	-4	9	10	1.0	6	0.6	0.4	$	7D/93
2011	31	CLE	AL	209	8	-0	-0	-2	-2	-4	7	7	0.7	10	1.0	-0.3	$	7D/39
5 Seasons				631	5	-1	1	-1	-1	-10	22	15	1.5	16	1.6	-0.1	$398,300

NYY (3 yrs)				163	-5	0	1	1	-2	-3	6	-2	-0.2	0	0.0	-0.2	$398,300
CLE (2 yrs)				468	10	-1	0	-2	1	-7	16	17	1.7	16	1.6	0.1	$

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/20/2011.

Offensive Statistics

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	Pos
2001	21	NYY-min	A-	70	302	273	43	67	17	2	8	39	5	3	21	62	.245	.311	.410	.722		STI · NYPL
2002	22	NYY-min	A	101	419	356	58	95	23	2	14	56	15	3	59	88	.267	.375	.461	.835		GBO · SALL
2003	23	NYY-min	A+	91	375	330	42	87	19	2	8	47	5	1	35	83	.264	.336	.406	.742		TAM · FLOR
2004	24	NYY-min	A+	123	494	424	65	105	27	1	19	78	6	3	54	119	.248	.336	.450	.787		TAM · FLOR
2005	25	NYY-min	AA	142	606	537	86	129	28	2	34	92	3	2	56	140	.240	.323	.490	.813		TRE · EL
2006	26	NYY-min	AA,AAA	104	442	394	48	98	25	0	20	65	3	1	39	87	.249	.321	.464	.786		TRE,CLB · EL,IL
2007	27	NYY-min	AAA	91	387	336	58	99	18	1	25	79	2	2	45	82	.295	.380	.577	.957		SWB · IL
2007	27	NYY	AL	34	83	74	16	19	1	0	7	17	0	0	8	20	.257	.329	.554	.883	127	D/397
2008	28	NYY-min	AAA,Rk	60	260	212	38	49	14	0	12	44	6	1	42	58	.231	.358	.467	.825		SWB,YNK · IL,GULF
2008	28	NYY	AL	23	65	57	7	10	3	0	1	6	0	0	7	13	.175	.262	.281	.542	43	3/9
2009	29	NYY-min	AAA	123	527	452	85	125	30	1	30	99	2	0	64	94	.277	.370	.546	.916		SWB · IL
2009	29	NYY	AL	11	15	15	1	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5	.200	.200	.200	.400	4	/9D
2010	30	CLE-min	AAA	38	166	146	21	44	11	0	6	34	0	0	17	28	.301	.380	.500	.880		CLB · IL
2010	30	CLE	AL	85	259	229	29	53	10	0	11	36	1	0	26	76	.231	.317	.419	.736	105	7D/93
2011	31	CLE-min	AAA	33	137	109	20	22	3	0	5	19	1	0	24	24	.202	.350	.367	.717		CLB · IL
2011	31	CLE	AL	65	209	190	26	52	14	0	10	38	0	1	15	46	.274	.335	.505	.840	132	7D/39
5 Seasons				218	631	565	79	137	28	0	29	98	1	1	56	160	.242	.316	.446	.762	107
162 Game Avg.				162	469	420	59	102	21	0	22	73	1	1	42	119	.242	.316	.446	.762	107

NYY (3 yrs)				68	163	146	24	32	4	0	8	24	0	0	15	38	.219	.290	.411	.701	81
CLE (2 yrs)				150	468	419	55	105	24	0	21	74	1	1	41	122	.251	.325	.458	.783	117

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/20/2011.

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Comments

This is random, but I didn’t realize that Chris and Shelley Duncan were two different people until I read this.

by rcpratt on Sep 20, 2011 8:25 AM EDT reply actions

What about Sandy Duncan?

by Jay on Sep 20, 2011 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Seymour Duncan?

Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.

by USSChoo on Sep 20, 2011 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions

You know what I like about Shelley? He’s always smiling and genuinely excited when the team does something good. Seems like an awesome team player.

But, I guess when you spend 9 years in the minors, you have to have that attitude to survive.

by Toxicadam on Sep 20, 2011 8:44 AM EDT reply actions

He’s always smiling and genuinely excited when the team does something good

the guy clearly loves baseball, even if he looks like an NFL tight-end

by APV on Sep 20, 2011 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions

He wants it so bad at the plate, too. I have never been more terrified than watching him in AAA hit a weak pop up. There were only a few people in the stands and being front row, I was way too close to his anger. Love him.

Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.

by USSChoo on Sep 20, 2011 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions

He is my favorite player. He may not be the most skilled, but like Toxicdam said, he is always smiling and seems excited. I will also never forget when he had to be restrained from cracking Josh Beckett’s face last year in that Red Sox brawl.

Adam Foote still blows!

by Heavysoviet on Sep 20, 2011 10:47 AM EDT reply actions

Funny that we love Duncan while most reviled Dellucci, a player with a very similar skill set (including the intangibles) who undeniably was better. Chalk another one up to expectations.

by Jay on Sep 20, 2011 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Huh? Based on bb-ref stats for both, Duncan has posted positive WAR both seasons for the Indians, over 468 plate appearances. If he were a full-time guy, he would produce at a level that bb-ref characterizes as “starter”. Dellucci posted three consecutive negative WAR seasons, totaling 619 plate appearances.

The story is the same even if you only consider offensive stats (since ostensibly dWAR is considered unreliable by some…I don’t really know anything about that debate), and also true if you look only at dWAR, despite defense being regarded as Duncan’s weakness. Dellucci had an OPS of .699 with the Indians (85 OPS+); Duncan has an OPS of .781 (117 OPS+).

I don’t know about their skill sets, but I’m not sure how Dellucci was undeniably better.

by Mr.Conic on Sep 20, 2011 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions

At best I could say Dellucci had a better career, but as you said, his time as an Indian was an absolute failure, while Duncan’s has been a plus.

by hans on Sep 20, 2011 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Umm….no, I can’t accept this. In his three seasons in Cleveland, Dellucci hit .238/.305/.394. Duncan has hit .249/.325/.456. They share a low batting average/on-base percentage, but Duncan has actually provided the power Dellucci was supposed to, but never did. The expectations also factor in, of course. Duncan was a never-was minor league signing, Dellucci was coming off back-to-back seasons with an OPS approaching .900 and was given a 3-year, $11.5M contract (getting more than 3x than he ever had annually before).

by APV on Sep 20, 2011 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions

I hope he gets a shot at 1B next year, I really like him

Twitter<

by danmang on Sep 20, 2011 11:57 AM EDT reply actions

I hope he gets another shot at Beckett’s face.

by gte619n on Sep 20, 2011 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Come on, people. There is room here for both!

Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.

by USSChoo on Sep 20, 2011 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

This!

Adam Foote still blows!

by Heavysoviet on Sep 20, 2011 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m not really sure what to make of Duncan’s odd reverse splits this season. Before the season I thought he fit very well on this lefty-leaning team since the one thing he had always done consistently well was hit LHP for power.

This year though, almost all of his pop has come v. RHP. A lot of it is probably just a fluke as evidenced by HR/FB of 26.5% v. RHP and just 2.6% v. LHP, but the added competency v. RHP is very encouraging since its unlikely he’s suddenly forgotten how to pound lefties.

by TKilbane on Sep 20, 2011 1:47 PM EDT reply actions

I’m quite sure what to make of it — almost nothing. It’s 100 PA on either side. You have to look for 500-1000 for significance.

The one thing you could consider making of it is that they suggest that it’s unlikely that Duncan would be a total disaster vs. RHP over the long haul. Someone with fundamental deficiencies is quite unlikely to produce a result this positive, even over a limited sample like 100 PA. He probably can’t maintain a decent contact rate vs. RHP, given his track record, but that’s balanced by the damage he can do when he “runs into one.”

On the other hand, even if you accept that premise, it is counterbalanced by the possibility that the scouting against him would impact his results in a significant way, given a full-time position. That is, that he would be “exposed” by a full-time role.

by Jay on Sep 20, 2011 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions

It’s kind of interesting that Duncan, Donald, Hannahan, Marson is already like carved in granite, etched in stone, cast in concrete as far as the 2012 bench is concerned barring the usual spring training hit by pitch wrist injury.

by cheech99 on Sep 20, 2011 5:17 PM EDT reply actions

Why is that interesting? These are exactly the type of players teams look for to fill out the bench roles. Two of the four are excellent defensively, one offers versatility and a respectable bat, and the fourth can mash lefties. These are generally the characteristics teams look for when finalizing the roster.

by callmrplow on Sep 21, 2011 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions