Game 154: White Sox 8, Indians 4

by Ryan on Sep 22, 2011 4:53 AM EDT in Game Recaps

Travis Hafner's two-run homer put the Indians ahead....briefly.

It was looking really good until the seventh. Ubaldo Jimenez was looking good, and the Indians had just taken the lead on Travis Hafner's two-run homer.

Old nemesis Mark Buerhle was on the hill for Chicago. This was his 46th start versus the Indians, and usually he's either really good or really bad. Tonight he was very good, allowing four hits in six innings, but two of the hits were key. With one out in the sixth, Jason Kipnis doubled down the left field line, and two batters later, Travis Hafner hit a towering fly ball that just cleared the right field fence for his 13th home run of the year. The blast gave the Indians a 2-1 lead.

Meanwhile, Jimenez was having one of his better starts of the season. Going into the seventh inning, he had allowed one run on four hits and no walks, and struck our seven along the way. But two walks and two hits later, the White Sox took back the lead 4-2. The key hit of the inning was an Alejandro De Aza two-run single with two outs. Previously in the at-bat, Jimenez uncorked a wild pitch to send the two runners on base two second and third.

Chad Durbin came in to pitch the eighth, and removed all doubt by giving up three home runs in the inning. Durbin had been pitching better in the second half of the season (3.07 ERA), but he's given up runs in each of his last four appearances.

The Indians, who had been toying with having Josh Tomlin pitch on Saturday, wised up and shut him down for the remainder of the season. Instead, Mitch Talbot will be brought back to make the start.

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via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Hafner	.378	Jimenez	-.336
Kipnis	.034	Marson	-.127
Carrera	.013	Durbin	-.118

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Ubaldo looked really good. I still hate his delivery.

by Toxicadam on Sep 22, 2011 8:24 AM EDT reply actions

Pitch Type / Avg Speed / Max Speed
FourSeam Fastball 94.57 96.5

According to Brooks Baseball

Fangraphs has him at 93.9 MPH for the season excluding this start. It’s encouraging to see his average fastball velocity closer to 95 MPH. But he’s still not averaging over 95 MPH which he has done in all of his previous seasons. Our hope is that Ubaldo can regain his lost velocity by next season.

by hans on Sep 22, 2011 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions

If he’s throwing 95 and holding it (which he was in the 7th), I could not care less about increased velocity. It’s all about control and location at that point, that’s what needs a return to form.

by mcrose on Sep 22, 2011 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions

reply fail

by TKilbane on Sep 22, 2011 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Well considering the difference in results, and the research done on velocity’s impact on the hitter’s ability to make solid contact on the ball regularly, I’d say regaining velocity is very important for Jimenez. It’s not all about control and location “at that point”. It’s about control, location, and velocity.

by hans on Sep 23, 2011 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions

Well, they are working on his throwing motion. So, maybe that it could be part of it.

by Toxicadam on Sep 22, 2011 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Which of these looks more likely to “return to form”?

‘09-’11 … BB/9 – 3.51, 3.74, 3.68 … FB MPH – 96.1, 96.1, 93.4

Increased control and location would obviously be awesome, but its not really who Ubaldo is. Making batters whiff with his high 90’s heat is what made him an ace in Colorado.

by TKilbane on Sep 22, 2011 1:56 PM EDT reply actions

Sure, it was all about the heat. That’s why Jason Davis and Fernando Cabrera are perennial All-Stars.

by Jay on Sep 22, 2011 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Good sir, on my current season in MVP 2005, Jason Davis IS an All-Star.

Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.

by USSChoo on Sep 22, 2011 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Well each team gets one.

by emd2k3 on Sep 22, 2011 9:46 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions

So is Victor, Coco Crisp, Millwood and Bob Wickman. I’m loaded.

Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.

by USSChoo on Sep 23, 2011 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions

This isn’t Jason Davis or Fernando Cabrera, nor did TKilbane expand his statement to include any other pitcher other than Ubaldo Jimenez. Jimenez’s velocity drop on his fastball (and slider, which is pretty important) is the single greatest observable underlying difference between his previous three seasons and this past season. You can go up and down the line of indicators that reinforce the likelihood that this was the key to his ability to be hit hard, swinging strike pct, contact pct, fastball and slider pitch values, lower IFFB%, lower GB%, HR/FB%. His K and BB pcts were all about the same for the past few years. The difference was all in the BIP, and not explained away by BABIP unluckiness (i.e. removing a portion of the singles he gave up possibly attributable to bad luck), his sOPS+ against was 96 on GBs, but 116 on FBs and 122 on LDs, but despite this luck on those BIP results, he saw the drop in his GB% and IFFB% and more well hit balls in the air.

by hans on Sep 23, 2011 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions

I tend to agree with hans here. Ubaldo has NEVER been a pure strike-thrower…he’s a “stuff” guy. Going with my eyes, he’s throwing harder consistently now than he did right after the trade. While I’m not sure he’ll get back to where he was velocity-wise, I’d say it’s a decent bet his velocity will increase next season.

by TribeJay on Sep 23, 2011 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions

I think it is interesting to speculate on how Jimenez will evolve as a pitcher away from Colorado. Superficially, his performance at home and on the road while with the Rockies were pretty equivalent in terms of overall success. But his underlying peripherals were fairly different. In particular, Jimenez has shown greater strikeout and walk tendencies on the road. Without going through and compiling a table of his home and road pitchFX splits, I’m guessing he gets a significant added movement effect on his pitches away from Colorado. If that carries over into his performances in Cleveland, it will be interesting to see how much the added walks limit his effectiveness versus the bonus of added Ks. Either way, I think his pitch movement is an equally important part of the equation around his success. In a perfect world, pitching more regularly in Cleveland allows Jimenez to develop increased comfort and improve his control while maintaining his K-rate.

by APV on Sep 23, 2011 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions

Well said

by TKilbane on Sep 23, 2011 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Somehow I don’t think if he was throwing 96 instead of 95 last nite it would have made a lot of difference. Putting the ball closer to where he intended would.

Can’t say I closely followed U as a Rockie, but there doesn’t seem to be anything wrong with his arm. I believe he and the coaches have said he has to smooth out some mechanics in his funky delivery. If that means more velocity AND control, fine – but when you’re already throwing mid-nineties, its the latter that makes the difference, not a couple ticks on the gun.

by mcrose on Sep 22, 2011 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m not saying which skill increase would be more effective at his margins, only that if it’s a “return to form” that we’re looking for, its going to come from added speed, not control.

If we are going to try to remake his delivery to something he’s never done before, then by all means, let’s shoot for mechanics that will give him better control.

by TKilbane on Sep 22, 2011 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions