Game Thread: September 23, 2011
by Ryan on Sep 23, 2011 6:45 PM EDT
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PrintMinnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians, Sep 23, 2011 7:05 PM EDT
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They’re going to place a Thome statue in Heritage Park at the site of his longest home run. Very appropriate, and much deserved.
That’s really cool.
Fear the Fedora.
by MooneysRebellion on Sep 23, 2011 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Justin’s not real sharp tonight.
Fear the Fedora.
by MooneysRebellion on Sep 23, 2011 8:36 PM EDT reply actions
It could be partly the weather, but I’m guessing it’s the amount of innings that Masterson has thrown this year as compared to last year (over 200 IP this year; I think he was around 175-180 last year, if I remember correctly).
Masterson hasn’t been as sharp in several of his starts over the last 5-6 outings.
Personally, I would strongly consider shutting him down after tonight and allowing another pitcher to take his rotation spot against Detroit (even someone like Corey Kluber) – it’s not because of what Detroit might or might not do; it’s because when a pitcher is tired, and I’m guessing that that could be the case with Masterson (the only starting rotation member to stay in the rotation all season), you have more of a propensity to injure yourself.
Certainly, in this year of the injury bug, we don’t need to risk Masterson, and we certainly can’t afford to have anything happen to him that might affect him in 2012. I’m all for shutting him down, no matter how much he may want to start against Detroit (I believe he is scheduled to go the last day of the season on Wednesday).
If I’m Acta, someone else makes that start on Wednesday – whether that’s Kluber, or you push back someone like Gomez or McAllister to make the start, I’d certainly have someone else take that start on Wednesday.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
Glad to see Acta take him out of that inning before it finished and allowing Herrmann to finish the inning. Like I said above, I would shut Masterson down for the year, even if he says that he can go – no need to risk him, as I think he is probably tired from the long season, and he’s over that 10% increase that I think is suggested for pitchers to increase from year to year.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
216 IP now for Masterson. I hope this is his last start for this season. I think there is a strong chance now that McAllister makes that start on the last game of the season.
Jay, just curious – are you serious or not?
I’m thinking that you can’t be serious (though, from your later post, I see that you are actually serious) – really, you’re worried about win #80, #81, or #82, as compared to the potential health of your best starting pitcher and one of your projected two top starters for 2012?
Is there much difference between #79 to win #80, 81, or 82? Yes, 81 wins would be .500, and 82 wins would be over .500, but in the grand scheme of things, I really don’t think that’s going to impact the Indians’ play in 2012 whether they finish above, at, or below .500.
I would think that the Indians will be chomping at the bit to go at it again in 2012 regardless of the 2011 record, and especially against Detroit, who benefitted from all of our injuries and a hot streak that was unforeseen based on how they played for much of the season.
If circumstances are different in 2012 (i.e. the Indians remain healthy and Detroit plays more to the level that you would expect – a good .600-.650 team, but not the scorching hot .750 team that they’ve shown for the last month), the Indians can at the very least challenge, if not beat Detroit in 2012.
However, if something happens to Masterson trying to stretch him for one more game when he’s already laboring, our chances for 2012 decline significantly. It’s not worth the risk.
I see your point regarding having him pitch into a 7th month next season (and I hope that is the case where we are playing 7 months next year), but as Ryan pointed out, he’s already been extended, and he seems to be laboring (not just tonight, but in several starts over the past month – his command not as sharp, and his strike-ball ratio has not been the usualy 2-1 that it had been earlier in the year). Between stretching him to be ready for month 7 next year and possibly risk injuring him for a part of 2012, I’ll err on the side of having him healthy for 2012 – the extra 10-15% of IP this year should help him to go longer and stronger for 2012 already.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
First, marketing. It’s not about the momentum of the players so much as the perception of the fans. And there is research on this.
Second, I favor being cautious with him within games, as we have been. But if he’s not hurt, I see no reason for him not to start. Is it really that unlikely that he finishes the season with a gem? No, it isn’t. And then all you small-sample slurpers will wonder what you were so worked up about a week earlier.
Could an argument be made that if we want to anticipate his pitching into the post-season next year, we at least give him a full, top of the rotation workload this year? Or is that negligible?
Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.
Ryan mentioned that before – his increase in IP, if you go by the 30 IP addition argument, Masterson should be able to go about 245-246 IP next year, which would hopefully be enough to carry him through a full postseason, especially if Acta doesn’t have him go too many complete games (he could get a few, certainly, but not say like the 12 or so that Shields has this year for TB).
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
All due respect, Jay, Acta announced after the game that Masterson WILL be shut down for the year.
As I mentioned, over around his last 6 starts, Masterson hasn’t looked the same – even when he has kept his team in the game, which has been 5/6 or 6/6 times, his command hasn’t been as sharp, which would seem to indicate that he is tired. Combine that with Ryan’s mention of the IP increase, and I think the prudent move is to shut him down.
As I also mentioned, if we push Masterson to the point where he gets injured, and in this season of the injury bug, why take chances, especially with the one starter who has managed to stay in the rotation all year? We figured that out with Tomlin, and granted, he did come down with a sore elbow, whereas Masterson didn’t, but like I said, Masterson hasn’t looked the same for around the last 5-6 starts, even to the point where he’s been laboring a bit.
To me, that signals that he’s probably tiring, and it’s been mentioned on more than one occasion that once you try pushing through an exhaustion period, you’re more likely to injure yourself because you’re more likely to exert other muscles to compensate for the ones that are tiring, leading to changes in your delivery, which can lead to poorer command, and quite possibly, injury.
I agree we’ve been cautious with him (not letting him throw a ton of pitches, and especially, high-pressure pitches), but still, there’s really no need to push him for one more start – let Gomez, McAllister, or Kluber (Huff starts Saturday, so he’s not an option unless you want him to start on 3 days’ rest) get a start against the Tigers and see what they can do; we know pretty much what Masterson can do against them when he’s on.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
All due respect, Jay, Acta announced after the game that Masterson WILL be shut down for the year.
All due respect? What does Acta’s announcement have to do with you and me?
Acta has more information than we do. For all you know, Acta agreed with my position. He isn’t just looking at the meager set of data that we are.
The Indians totally tanked the last game of 2010, too, so I guess I shouldn’t be surprised. But I disagreed with that, and I think they should make their best effort this year, too.
Dum de dum de dum … oh, hey, Indians game!
We’re going to miss this when it’s gone.
by Jay on Sep 23, 2011 9:49 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
I’ve actually been watching most of this game, it’s been entertaining.
It’s annoying that they are still pitching Masterson. I said they should have shut him down after last start.
Most innings he’s ever pitched. Meaningless games against AAAA opponents. Athletes more likely to get injured when fatigued.
He’s pretty much already there. He’s already over 215 innings, so in theory (if you use the 30 inning rule) he’s good for 245 innings next year.
I would think, and hope, that 245 IP would be enough to cover all of 2012 (including the postseason).
When looking at Detroit’s roster and such, Verlander has really logged a lot of IP over the past 3 seasons, including this year (I think he’s at or approaching 250 IP, with still another two weeks to go, at least). One has to wonder how that could affect Verlander down the road – it’s not a guarantee of injury, certainly, but if I were a Detroit fan, I’d be concerned a bit.
After all, if Detroit loses Verlander for any length of time, their chances are significantly impacted, especially with the way their team is currently constituted for the foreseeable future (the rest of the rotation is iffy, with potential, but with erratic performances, outside of Fister, and even Fister is due to fall back a bit, as he’s never shown great K rates, around 5-5.5/9, so expecting him to fill in for Verlander on a longer-term basis is not really realistic, even with his very solid 2011 season).
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
I’ve been racking my brain for situations in which Thome can hit a triple in this park. Can’t think of any.
right fielder and center fielder collide, knocking each other out. that’s all I have.
@grantgw - sports and Cleveland and Columbus stuff
by woodsmeister on Sep 23, 2011 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions
No, in that you are giving a player credit for “being there” — right place at the right time — nearly as much as for what he actually did once there. The numbers really bear that out, too.
Think about how comfortable people are using FIP instead of ERA. FIP assumes that the pitcher had nothing to do with outs vs. hits on balls in play. We know that’s largely true, statistically speaking, but nonetheless, you’re failing to credit or blame the pitcher for actual outcomes. You’re rating him based on an estimation of what you think he did, not based on what actually happened.
Yet somehow, we’re prepared to go with essentially ERA or RBI for fielding. That one recent article said, essentially, we can’t use three-year rolling averages for dWAR, because we wouldn’t be giving a player credit for what he actually did in the current season. Yet the same logic is not applied to FIP, and honestly, what is the difference?
To take one example, Adrian Beltre is widely known as an excellent defender at third, plus he’s played a lot of full seasons. His dWAR has been all over the map, and defense normally isn’t that variable. Heck the season he won his first Gold Glove, he had a dWAR of -.4 – in other words, the statistic said he was below replacement!
CARLOSS!
"I want to be playing at the end of October or the end of September -- not just at the beginning of April." —Grady
Uh… I think I missed something – Yahoo has it that Marson hit the HR, though I do see Santana pinch hit for him in the 9th.
So much for Yahoo’s accuracy – I wonder how long before they update it to say Santana hit the HR, not Marson?
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
For the record, Yahoo still doesn’t have it right.
They do have Santana hitting and getting a base hit and an RBI, but they have the HR in Marson’s column, plus they have Marson’s name listed next to the HRs after Thome’s name, not Santana’s name.
Unbelievable! :-)
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
I’m upset I took a nap this evening and missed this game. SANTANA! And that Thome shot was killed. I remember wondering earlier in the season when the last ball was hit to dead center over the 19 foot wall. The answer is once again Thome.
What if...
by Danieldelamaiz on Sep 23, 2011 10:57 PM EDT reply actions
A game and a half behind Toronto and 1 behind the Dodgers. 2 games in front of the Nats.
It’d be nice if the Dodgers and Nats won out and we went like 5-3.
"I want to be playing at the end of October or the end of September -- not just at the beginning of April." —Grady
Hey, these Indians don’t lose, they just run out of time.
by YoDaddyWags on Sep 24, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Right now, from the opposite end of the spectrum, in case any one was wondering, I project somewhere between #12-#15 in the 2012 Draft (I’m not counting additional picks from teams that didn’t sign their 2011 picks – not familiar with those off of the top of my head).
I believe we are #15 right now. It’s possible we could go to 16 or 17 if we get pretty hot over the last 6 games, or we could “increase” up to #12.
The "cream of the crop" doesn't always rise to the top.
We have the 15th best record now, in line for the 16th pick (aside from 2010 compensation picks).
As I intimated on Twitter, the chance that the White Sox will catch us is around 11% now. Same for the Reds. We had a worse record than either team in 2010, so we’d get preference in the case of a tie.
With the Nats, however, we had the same record in 2010 but a better record in 2009 — so they perversely win the tiebreaker, despite already having won the tiebreaker last year. So we’d have to finish not in a tie but with a worse record than that. That is also very improbable at this point, around 7.3%
Those factors come out to around 73% against any of those outcomes happening. That leaves 27% in favor, but remember, the Dodgers and Blue Jays also have to remain ahead of us, so it’s probably a little bit less than 27%.
Bottom line, we’re almost out of the protected-pick race.
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