2011 In Review: Carlos Carrasco

by Ryan on Sep 26, 2011 3:28 AM EDT in Analysis

Age 24 Season

2011 Salary: $415,800

Service Time (est): 1.034

2012 Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration

Options Remaining: One

How Acquired: Trade (Philadelphia, 7-29-2009)

If Opening Day was tomorrow: On 60-Day Disabled List and out for the season.

Repertroire: (via Fangraphs)

Pitch	Percentage	Avg. Velocity
Fastball*	57.8%	92.5
Slider	10.6%	83.9
Curve	11.9%	79.7
Change	19.7%	85.5

*Carlos throws both a two-seam and a four-seam fastball, but both pitches are included under the same category.

2011 Transactions/Injuries:

4-28-2011: Placed on 15-Day Disabled List (right elbow)

5-11-2011: Reinstated from 15-Day Disabled List

8-1-2011: Suspended by MLB for six games

8-8-2011: Placed on 15-Day Disabled List (right elbow)

9-6-2011: Transferred to 60-Day Disabled List (right elbow surgery)

This looked like the season in which Carrasco would break out. He closed the 2010 season with the Indians after spending most of the year in Columbus, and held his own in seven starts in September/October, and that finish earned him a spot in this year's rotation. He was the headliner of the Cliff Lee deal, and had an impressive arsenal of pitches, though at times he would rely more on his off-speed pitches than his fastball. He landed on the Disabled List in late April with a strained right elbow, but came back quickly, and pitch his best ball in May and June. After a clunker against the Rangers on June 2, he ran off a string of five Quality Starts in a row, highlighted by two straight starts in which the Indians won 1-0 (these were the Indians' only two victories in a span of twelve games).

Once the calendar hit July, though, he fell off dramatically, posting a 9.13 ERA during the month, and having especially bad start against the Royals on July 29th. He not only gave up seven earned runs in 3.1 innings, but would earn a suspension after throwing at Billy Butler's head. Unfortunately, he still has yet to serve the suspension, as after he dropped his appeal, he went on the Disabled List again with inflammation in his right elbow. As late as August, the Indians were hoping that he'd pitch before the season was over. But in early September, rumors of Tommy John surgery were surfacing, and on September 6th, he was scheduled for the reconstructive surgery. The ligament damage was not of a sudden nature (in other words, he didn't injure the ligament based on one throw) but appeared to be based on an injury Carrasco suffered as a teenager:

In conversations with Carrasco, 24, Soloff said it was learned that the pitcher suffered an elbow injury when he was around 14 years old. At the time, Carrasco sat out for roughly six weeks before throwing again. This season, the pitcher complained of discomfort on the outside of his elbow, rather than on the inside, where the injured ligament is located.

Soloff said one option was to scope the elbow -- removing loose bodies -- but that route would only provide temporary relief for the pitcher. After seeking multiple opinions, the Indians determined that pursuing Tommy John surgery was the best option for a pitcher considered to be a key part of the rotation's long-term plans.

Carrasco had the surgery on September 14th, and although he may start throwing in games again a year from now, it's more likely that he won't pitch for the Indians until the 2013 season.

2011 Pitching Log

Rk	Date		Opp	Rslt	Inngs	Dec	DR	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	HBP	ERA	BF	Pit	Str	StL	StS	GB	FB	LD	PU	Unk	GSc
1	Apr 2		CHW	L,3-8	GS-7	L(0-1)	99	6.2	10	7	7	2	2	0	0	9.45	31	103	64	16	10	10	17	8	1	0	26
2	Apr 8	@	SEA	W,12-3	GS-6	W(1-1)	5	6.0	4	1	1	3	6	0	1	5.68	25	99	55	11	9	7	8	2	1	0	63
3	Apr 13	@	LAA	L,3-4	GS-7		4	7.0	5	3	3	2	5	1	0	5.03	26	90	59	18	11	9	10	2	0	0	58
4	Apr 18	@	KCR	W,7-3	GS-7		4	6.1	7	3	3	1	4	0	0	4.85	26	93	65	8	9	7	14	9	1	0	50
5	Apr 24	@	MIN	L,3-4	GS-3		5	3.0	6	2	2	2	1	0	0	4.97	14	56	33	10	2	6	5	2	1	0	38
May			Opp	Rslt	Inngs	Dec	DR	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	HBP	ERA	BF	Pit	Str	StL	StS	GB	FB	LD	PU	Unk	GSc
6	May 11		TBR	L,2-8	GS-5	L(1-2)	16	5.0	6	4	4	3	2	0	0	5.29	25	100	56	17	7	16	4	3	1	0	38
7	May 17	@	KCR	W,7-3	GS-6	W(2-2)	5	5.1	5	2	2	2	5	0	0	5.03	23	97	60	10	9	10	6	1	0	0	53
8	May 22		CIN	W,12-4	GS-7	W(3-2)	4	6.0	6	4	4	1	3	2	0	5.16	25	99	66	14	9	8	13	8	1	0	46
9	May 28	@	TBR	W,7-3	GS-6	W(4-2)	5	6.0	7	2	2	0	4	1	0	4.91	25	94	62	20	7	11	10	1	2	0	54
June			Opp	Rslt	Inngs	Dec	DR	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	HBP	ERA	BF	Pit	Str	StL	StS	GB	FB	LD	PU	Unk	GSc
10	Jun 2		TEX	L,4-7	GS-6	L(4-3)	4	6.0	8	6	5	2	0	0	0	5.18	28	88	55	15	4	14	12	5	1	0	32
11	Jun 7		MIN	W,1-0	GS-9	W(5-3)	4	8.1	3	0	0	1	6	0	0	4.52	28	104	72	20	13	15	6	0	2	0	82
12	Jun 13	@	NYY	W,1-0	GS-7	W(6-3)	5	7.0	5	0	0	3	7	0	0	4.09	28	100	60	19	7	10	8	2	0	0	71
13	Jun 18		PIT	W,5-1	GS-7	W(7-3)	4	6.1	4	1	1	1	4	0	0	3.87	24	102	66	14	9	12	7	2	0	0	64
14	Jun 24	@	SFG	L,3-4	CG(8)	L(7-4)	5	8.0	6	4	1	0	4	1	0	3.62	30	91	64	15	8	14	12	1	3	0	64
15	Jun 29	@	ARI	W,6-2	GS-7	W(8-4)	4	7.0	4	2	2	0	7	2	2	3.54	27	106	69	20	9	8	10	3	3	0	68
July			Opp	Rslt	Inngs	Dec	DR	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	HBP	ERA	BF	Pit	Str	StL	StS	GB	FB	LD	PU	Unk	GSc
16	Jul 5		NYY	L,2-9	GS-4	L(8-5)	5	4.0	10	6	6	3	3	2	0	3.95	25	93	59	22	4	12	7	2	1	0	18
17	Jul 10		TOR	L,1-7	GS-3	L(8-6)	4	3.0	7	5	5	2	4	1	0	4.28	18	72	47	12	10	6	6	2	1	0	27
18	Jul 16	@	BAL	L,5-6	GS-7	L(8-7)	5	7.0	5	3	3	2	6	1	0	4.25	27	103	67	11	12	7	12	4	2	0	59
19	Jul 22		CHW	L,0-3	GS-7	L(8-8)	5	6.1	6	3	3	4	6	1	1	4.25	30	102	66	11	8	5	14	5	3	0	51
20	Jul 29		KCR	L,0-12	GS-4	L(8-9)	6	3.1	7	7	7	3	1	3	0	4.67	20	60	33	7	3	8	8	2	0	0	16
August			Opp	Rslt	Inngs	Dec	DR	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	HBP	ERA	BF	Pit	Str	StL	StS	GB	FB	LD	PU	Unk	GSc
21	Aug 3	@	BOS	L,3-4	GS-8		4	7.0	9	3	3	3	5	0	0	4.62	31	112	77	17	10	13	10	5	1	0	49
								124.2	130	68	64	40	85	15	4	4.62	536

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/14/2011.

Career Stats

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	ERA+	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2004	17	PHI-min	Rk	5	4	.556	3.56	11	8	0	0	48.0	53	23	19	2	15	0	34		1.417	9.9	0.4	2.8	6.4	2.27
2005	18	PHI-min	A,A-,Rk	1	10	.091	7.92	19	19	1	0	83.0	110	76	73	19	34	0	60		1.735	11.9	2.1	3.7	6.5	1.76
2006	19	PHI-min	A	12	6	.667	2.26	26	26	2	0	159.1	103	50	40	6	65	0	159		1.054	5.8	0.3	3.7	9.0	2.45
2007	20	PHI-min	AA,A+	12	6	.667	3.86	26	25	2	2	140.0	114	64	60	17	68	0	102		1.300	7.3	1.1	4.4	6.6	1.50
2008	21	PHI-min	AA,AAA	9	9	.500	3.69	26	25	1	0	151.1	146	73	62	14	58	1	155		1.348	8.7	0.8	3.4	9.2	2.67
2009	22	PHI-CLE-min	AAA	11	10	.524	4.64	26	26	0	0	157.0	149	91	81	17	45	0	148		1.236	8.5	1.0	2.6	8.5	3.29
2009	22	CLE	AL	0	4	.000	8.87	5	5	0	0	22.1	40	23	22	6	11	1	11	49	2.284	16.1	2.4	4.4	4.4	1.00
2010	23	CLE-min	AAA	10	6	.625	3.65	25	25	0	0	150.1	139	69	61	16	46	0	133		1.231	8.3	1.0	2.8	8.0	2.89
2010	23	CLE	AL	2	2	.500	3.83	7	7	1	0	44.2	47	20	19	6	14	1	38	104	1.366	9.5	1.2	2.8	7.7	2.71
2011	24	CLE-min	AA	0	0		9.82	1	1	0	0	3.2	4	4	4	1	3	0	3		1.909	9.8	2.5	7.4	7.4	1.00
2011	24	CLE	AL	8	9	.471	4.62	21	21	1	0	124.2	130	68	64	15	40	3	85	86	1.364	9.4	1.1	2.9	6.1	2.13
3 Seasons				10	15	.400	4.93	33	33	2	0	191.2	217	111	105	27	65	5	134	81	1.471	10.2	1.3	3.1	6.3	2.06
162 Game Avg.				10	15	.400	4.93	34	34	2	0	198	224	114	108	28	67	5	138	81	1.471	10.2	1.3	3.1	6.3	2.06

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/26/2011.

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Comments

In a weird season filled with encouraging and depressing players/performances, Carrasco’s injury is the gut punch

by APV on Sep 26, 2011 7:54 AM EDT reply actions

Agreed. Everything seemed to be setting up for Carrasco to become a solid to good major-league starter.

by Ryan on Sep 26, 2011 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah. Sigh. Any idea if there is a large enough SS now of TJ pitchers, and what we might expect? I’d think not, but I guess I want something to grasp onto with Carrasco.

by tabler84 on Sep 26, 2011 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions

We should expect good things. The recovery rate is very high, and most come back with a little more velocity.

by Jay on Sep 26, 2011 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions

As far as I can tell, the downside here is the lost time, not the lasting effects of the surgery. Please correct me if I’m wrong.

"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway

by notthatnoise on Sep 26, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Which is what makes Hector Rondon something of a wildcard for next year’s rotation

by APV on Sep 26, 2011 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions

So, what’s the consensus on how excited to get about Rondon in 2012?

by 7foot3 on Sep 26, 2011 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions

not at all (but you are allowed a smug grim if he does well)

by APV on Sep 26, 2011 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions

A smug of grim is the perfect nightcap.

by YoDaddyWags on Sep 26, 2011 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Though I think I recall hearing that the velocity gain is in comparison to the recent pre-injury velocity which may have been slightly lower than peak anyways due to the degradation of the progressing injury.

by hans on Sep 26, 2011 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes, but what about control and commad? I would assume that takes quite a bit of time to regain.

by callmrplow on Sep 27, 2011 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions

It does, but he’s got time. He’ll be 18 months past surgery by Opening Day 2013.

by Jay on Sep 27, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Can someone more knowledgeable than I tell me if Carrasco will accrue ML service time for the 2012 season, while rehabbing from his injury?

by MTF on Sep 26, 2011 5:59 PM EDT reply actions

As long he’s on a major-league disabled list, he’ll accrue time.

by Ryan on Sep 26, 2011 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Yup, this is why it’s best to get the TJ out of the way while the player is in the minors…but of course we don’t really control that.

by hans on Sep 26, 2011 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Except then of course you face potential 40-man roster decisions

by APV on Sep 27, 2011 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions

I have wondered if TJ is considered so solid now that teams would actually Rule 5 draft a pitcher still recovering from it. The rules seem pretty permissive in that regard.

by Jay on Sep 27, 2011 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions

If we’re fortunate enough to be in the hunt next September and still playing in October, I wonder how much pressure there will be to get Carrasco throwing out of the pen at least for the playoffs.

by TKilbane on Sep 26, 2011 6:26 PM EDT reply actions

I seriously doubt he’d be ready. That would assume he’d recover at the very low end of the recovery period, and even his elbow would be healthy, I don’t think he’d be of much use as a pitcher. Think about how Jake Westbrook struggled for his first month or so back in the rotation.

by Ryan on Sep 26, 2011 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions

His effectiveness will certainly be in question, but there are examples of players doing this. Didn’t Strasburg come back in about a year?

by callmrplow on Sep 27, 2011 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions

No doubt. I just wonder if a temporary bullpen role would allow him to be effective without having regained his full control yet. It’s not hard to envision his stuff, at least as constituted pre-surgery, making him one of our best late inning options.

Either way, I’ll be very pleased if we can even entertain this discussion in a little less than a year.

by TKilbane on Sep 27, 2011 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions

The game that stands out for me this year when I realized this guy can be really good is that win in New York in June. It was fun because the game was on TV and it was an important one as the team was reeling having lost 9 of 10. It was such a clutch performance exactly when it was needed.

by johnf34 on Sep 26, 2011 10:15 PM EDT reply actions