Game 138: Tigers 4, Indians 2
by Ryan on Sep 6, 2011 2:02 AM EDT
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This was a game that the Indians needed to win, but they couldn't pull it off.
Ubaldo Jimenez made one mistake, but that mistake was a three-run homer. Doug Fister made one mistake, but that only cost the Tigers one run. That was the difference in the game, and probably the season. The Indians came into the series down 6.5 games, and for them to have any realistic chance of catching the Tigers only their last 25 games would be to sweep Detroit. Now at best they'll head out on the road down 5.5 games with 22 games left, and making up that large a deficit would take an unrealistic Tigers collapse.
This game featured two starters added at the trading deadline. Doug Fister, who came over from Seattle, had a career day, striking out 13 Indians in eight innings while allowing just four hits and a walk. The outside corner was a generous one today, and Fister took advantage, getting ahead of virtually every Indians hitter. And once he was ahead in the count, he was able to get strikeouts with his two-seam fastball, curve, or four-seam fastball to either right-handed or left-handed batters. He controlled all his pitches impeccably, and the Indians' patient approach worked against them.
Fister's only jam occurred in the third inning. Jason Donald has hit by a pitch, then Ramon Santiago botched what could have been a double play to put runners on first and second with one out. After Grady Sizemore, who was playing for the first time since the middle of July, struck out, Kosuke Fukudome lined a single off Fister to load the bases. But Fister got ahead of Asdrubal Cabrera thanks to a generous strike call, and would get the strikeout to end the threat.
The Tigers took advantage of their one opportunity against Jimenez in the top of the fourth. Delmon Young singled with one out in the fourth, Miguel Cabrera worked a walk, and Victor Martinez jumped on a fastball down and in and hit it deep into the right field seats. Both hits Jimenez allowed happened in the same inning, but those were enough for Detroit. They would add a run in the eighth off Joe Smith, but didn't need it.
Jimenez went seven innings, striking out eight, but that one mistake cost him dearly. His fastball was tremendous, sitting at 94 or 95 on the gun, and often exactly on the edge of the strike zone. 15 days, had he thrown this exact game, he and the Indians would have cruised to victory. But not today.
The Indians scored a run in the fifth thanks to a throwing error by Fister, and would cut the deficit to 4-2 with Fukudome's eight inning solo shot. But two runs would be as close as they would get.
| Highest WPA | Lowest WPA | ||
| Donald | .068 | Cabrera | -.151 |
| Fukudome | .063 | Duncan | -.101 |
| Pestano | .016 | Chisenhall | -.098 |
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Not much to add. The recap really says it all.
This must be how the Tigers fans felt in 2007 when the Indians won all the big games down the stretch and beat up everyone in the division. They are the better team and are proving it.
Maybe the Indians can win the next two and keep the hope alive.
i think we would still be right in there if we win next 2 because that would mean 5.5 games back with another series against them plus it would mean we bet Verlander which would be a big mental boost!
"Hardwork beats talent when talent fails to work hard" -Norm Nixon
"Our greatest glory is not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall." -Confucius
It adds some salt to the wound to have Ubaldo taking the loss in two consecutive pivotal games against the Tigers. Not trying to pass judgment on the trade (its too early, he’s under team control through 2013, he actually looked good yesterday, etc.) but it does sting that he hasn’t been able to carry the team in some big moments the way many, including me, hoped he could down the stretch.
I guess carry would be completely shutting them down, but the offense has to take the blame in this one.
The offense takes the blame in almost every crucial loss this season. Here’s the list of the top four teams with regards to runs a game:
New York – 5.50
Boston – 5.34
Texas – 5.11
Detroit – 4.69
League average is: 4.43
Cleveland – 4.22
Agree, the offense (and by proxy the injuries) take(s) the blame for most of the shortcomings since June 1. My most optimistic hopes for Ubaldo naturally had him as a shut down stopper who we would want out there in must win games. While I still feel optimistic about his future as an Indian, he hasn’t pitched well enough for the team to win his last two starts against the Tigers. Was that his “fault” yesterday? No, not entirely. But he could have pitched better in both those games, and wins in those two would have the Indians 3.5 GB right now (2 in the loss column) and controlling their own destiny.
I’ll admit that I’ve yelled similar things with more expletives at the screen during a few of Ubie’s starts, and Fister’s notable success with the Tigers makes it even more difficult to stomach. But, as you noted parenthetically, it’s way too early to judge.
Partly, this is an issue of a media-based expectations game. This was set up from the beginning as a “will Ubaldo or Fister do better down the stretch” question. We got a guy with an undeniably better pedigree, more past success, and better stuff, but one who was also having an off-year that started with injuries that prevented him from getting into the proper shape/rhythm at the beginning of the year.
The Tigers got a guy whose minor league numbers at similar ages look a lot like Josh Tomlin and who projects to be a sub-Jake Westbrook starter for most of his career. (Lower GB rate, less vertical movement than Westbook, according to Fangraphs.)
I have to listen to the Tigers announcers due to MLB.TV’s blackout restrictions, which only adds to my frustration. The dude who chased that Japenese player around the outfield with the bat acts as if Fister is a future Cy Young winner who the Tigers got for nothing when Fister is actually a 3-4 starter on even a mediocre team and the Tigers had to give up a mediocre reliever (Furbush) a former #1 draft pick who was rushed and could be an excellent reliever (Ruffin), a solid #4 outfielder who might have a higher ceiling (Wells), and a really intriguing 3B prospect who has put up good numbers while being way, way young for his league (Martinez). To put it in perspective (even though there are no perfect comparisons), that would be something like Hermann, Judy or Lee, someone better than Carerra, and someone better than Jesus Aguilar for a guy who (like Tomlin) needs point-perfect control and an incredibly low WHIP in order to be successful.
The Tigers got really lucky on the Fat Cabrera trade (though it looked good for them from the start), but they might be unlucky with how the Fister trade turns out in the long run, while the Indians might be lucky with the Ubie trade. (White has been really struggling with COL so far.)
The bottom line is that Ubie could have thrown no-hitters in all of his starts so far and we’d be two (?) games better in the standings. That wouldn’t cut it. The frustration with the Ubie trade so far is really just frustration with the Indians semi-collapse after the All Star Break.
I think the key to the Fister/Jimenez (which sounds dirty) comparison yesterday was that Fister got to face a decimated Indians lineup, while Jimenez was going against a full-strength Tigers squad. I didn’t get to see the game, but Jimenez probably had to pitch better than Fister did to arrive at their respective lines.
Trombone/creamy/soda.
Nice analysis. One point, as I mentioned above if the two losses to the Tigers in Ubaldo starts went the other way, that would be a 4 game swing in the standings.
Good point. I forgot about that second start against Detroit, which was brutal. But he won his first against Det and really easily could have won last night if Fister wasn’t facing 1/2 of the Indians and 1/2 of the Clippers.
by J83 on Sep 6, 2011 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
As an aside, a more provocative comparison would be Martinez and Chisenhall, which seems more plausible than I imagined before looking at the numbers.
Martinez at 20 in AA: 289/321/426/746
Chisenhall at 21 in AA: .278/.351/.450/.801
In other words, it takes prospects to get pitching, and I think it’s way, way too soon to curse that we gave up two pitching prospects to get Ubaldo when Det had to give up a potentially high-upside 3B prospect to get Fister.
by J83 on Sep 6, 2011 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m certainly no expert on the Tigers minor league system, but Chisenhall’s minor league fielding numbers were only slightly better than Martinez’s and several scouting reports I read suggested he has the range/arm/hands to eventually stick at third. Once again, I was just being provocative to stress that it’s too soon to overreact to the Ubie trade. One way of putting that in perspective, I think is to note that the Tigers had to give up some interesting prospects to get Fister, a point that seems to have been completely lost in most of the commentary on the Fister trade.
by J83 on Sep 6, 2011 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Martinez and Ruffin were the potential gems of the trade
Furbush is going to be a back end pitcher at best and Wells, while we Tiger fans love him, probably has the upside of a 4th outfielder.
Martinez (if I remember correctly) will probably end up an outfielder when he fills out. Good all around talent and very athletic but the skill set doesn’t completely translate to 3B in the long run. Plus, for the Tigers, he was expendable because of Nick Castellanos who projects much higher (and is more likely to stay at 3B) than Martinez.
I always feel like it’s a damned shame when a guy can’t stay at 3B. A lot of value drains out when he gets thrown in the LF/1B pile. Occasionally you see a guy transition from 3B to RF, which has some logic to it and a bit more value, but for some reason it doesn’t seem to happen that often.
by Jay on Sep 6, 2011 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Didn’t Thome come up as a 3B?
"Lotta heart in Cleveland." - Ian Hunter
by Denver Tribe Fan on Sep 6, 2011 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Certainly. If you’re going to hit 600 HR, then of course you have value to spare.
by Jay on Sep 6, 2011 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions
The frustration with the Ubie trade so far is really just frustration with the Indians semi-collapse after the All Star Break.
The Ubaldo trade was not going “all-in” on this season. With roughly 2.5 yrs of control, that’s clear, but there’s no denying that the Tribe’s semi-collapse renders approximately 20% of Ubaldo’s acquired team control meaningless, regardless of how he performs.
This was my issue with the trade originally. We sacrificed the aggregate ceiling of Pom/White/Gardner for the more certain production of 2.5 years of Ubaldo. The trade probably also does not get made if not for Ubaldo’s extremely team friendly contract. Between the savings per win added to the ML team and the added gate revenue from a division race and potential postseason appearance, the financial implications were a huge factor. But now that the team has failed to keep it interesting until the end for the casual fan, we’ve lost 20% of the potential added value, and Ubaldo is left with only 2 yrs to add more value than what we gave away.
Placing a bet on Ubaldo over the next 2.5 years came with enough risks as it was, but ultimately I didn’t really have a problem with it since betting on 3 largely minor league pitchers is even riskier. But in order for the trade to make sense, the Tribe would have to be ready to contend for the next 2.5 years, so we were betting on the team as a whole as well and I think that’s were we may have erred.
To call it a semi-collapse after the ASB, and therefore largely eliminating it from the trade decision, isn’t quite accurate in my opinion. The injuries have been ridiculous and couldn’t have ever been predicted to this extent, but the team has been mostly below average since mid-May and by the time the trade deadline rolled around, I thought the writing was on the wall.
To conclude my response to your statement, I think it makes sense to be frustrated with the Ubaldo trade because of the Indians semi-collapse.
especially painful when you consider the immediate impact that both Sabathia and Lee made after we traded them. Ubaldo may not be a Sabathia or a Lee, but a similar boost would have us around 3-4 games out, not 7.5.
Ubaldo’s 1st 7 games….2-2, 41IP, 45H, 28R, 24ER, 14BB, 46K, 0CG, 0SHO Team record 3-4
Sabathia’s…………………….6-0, 57IP, 40H, 10ER, 40H, 12BB, 52K, 4CG, 1SHO Team record 6-1
Lee………………………………. 5-2, 48IP, 43H, 18R, 15ER, 6BB, 47K, 2CG, 0SHO Team record 5-2
Are you complaining about format or lack of useful metrics?
"Lotta heart in Cleveland." - Ian Hunter
by Denver Tribe Fan on Sep 6, 2011 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
wasn’t interested in metrics, just wanted to see results. Let me know which useful metric you would like to see. I will calculate it, throw an SSS after it if you’d like. Just a guess – Ubaldo will be much worse than Sabathia/Lee. Unless you’re useful metric is K/9.
Metrics are the best, though imperfect, way to predict results.
"Lotta heart in Cleveland." - Ian Hunter
by Denver Tribe Fan on Sep 6, 2011 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Metrics and format aside, I don’t find much usefulness in comparing Ubaldo to those trades. Lee and Sabathia, it could be argued, were the sole pieces to get their teams over the hump. Even if Ubaldo had performed closer to immediate expectations in the short term, our real problem is at the plate.
Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.
Good time to remind people about the “pre” tag. Via Jay:
You put it at the start and the end of the whole section — start with <pre>, end with </pre> — and it casts the text in between in a monotype format, where every character has the same width, just like a typewriter or a VT terminal session. That makes it easier to predict spacing and line things up consistently, and with some judicious use of the Preview button, you can nudge stuff into place.
AVG OBP SLG
Player 1: 111/222/333
Player 2: 222/333/444
Player 3: 333/444/555
by cleveland teamer on Sep 6, 2011 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I think that Det/Cle injury comparison says it all. We just couldn’t stay healthy. Reminds me of a horse I bet on that got through the second turn in the lead but by the fourth turn was well-behind and practically dead on the track. Thank God it was only a $2 bet.
Let’s spend a bit of money in the off season and get ’em next year.
Rather scared. Inquiring about dog.
health is a skill
Len Barker Perfect Game Attendee
by PortlandVinny on Sep 6, 2011 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
If we can’t win the division, I have no problem seeing the Tigers go to the playoffs, but I’m not ready to concede. This has been a strange season, and it has resulted in almost as many questions as answers. This will be a delicious off-season.
Considering the teams in the division, I’d much rather see the Tigers in than anyone else. But I am a little bit nervous about heading into the offseason if only because of the questions all of these injuries have raised for next year. Next year could be another frustrating year of “what if” that evoke negative memories rather than positive ones.
Valbuena? Don’t we have another AAA championship to win?
by AllenSmith on Sep 6, 2011 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Incidentally, some of you may have noticed some trolling activity from BYB users on Twitter, and we may see that starting to pop up here. Some of you may have seen, I made a vain attempt to go and reason with them earlier today, to make the case that there is no reason for one team’s fans to vilify the other team’s fans — certainly not in the AL Central. Those who chose to respond, almost without exception, could not see past the adolescent aspects of a sports rivalry even for a moment.
I invited BYB readers to come over here if they wanted to continue any of our discussions in a serious way. We may see some here in a friendly capacity, we may well see some trolling.
Having said that, I want to encourage everyone here to give BYB visitors the benefit of the doubt. Don’t read antagonism into statements that may have been well intended. Give at least a small berth for differences in perspective, maybe even a trash-talking. What I’m saying is, let’s not make trolls out of people who aren’t necessarily coming here to be trolls. If they’re here to troll, they’ll be dealt with quickly enough by the mods.
It doesn’t seem like your appeal to civility worked, considering that the game thread at BYB starts with calling Kipnis a “shithead” multiple times, then compared him to an STD.
by J83 on Sep 6, 2011 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed. However, while I here’s no reason to trash talk other team’s fans, I think it’s perfectly reasonable for Indians fans to silently harbor hate for the Tigers in our hearts that equals our hate for Red Socks fans, for example. I mean, their payroll IS 2X ours, and their city is responsible for Ted Nuget.
by J83 on Sep 6, 2011 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Ted Nugent.
And MC5, Kid Rock, Eminem, Motown, Della Reese, The Winans, Madonna, Don Was, Aaliyah, Suzi Quatro, Bill Haley, Hank Ballard & The Midnighters, Marshall Crenshaw, Glenn Frey, Mitch Ryder, Del Shannon (Grand Rapids), Iggy Pop (Ann Arbor), Alice Cooper, Bob Seger, Grand Funk Railroad, The White Stripes, Insane Clown Posse, and techno music.
Typo, though I don’t much care if I get Ted’s name right and picked him to be a jerk to Detroit’s musical history. I live in MI and know the rundown. It’s more impressive if the big Motown people are listed separately (even if I’ve always preferred Stax). Plus don’t forget Brownsville Station (from A2) who did the classic “Smokin in the boys room.”
by J83 on Sep 7, 2011 12:37 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yeah, but that’s their right on their site. I wasn’t asking them not to bash Indians players.
by Jay on Sep 6, 2011 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I know you weren’t talking about BYB. I’m just pointing out the larger culture they are coming from.
by J83 on Sep 6, 2011 9:12 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
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