2012 Age: 27
2012 WAR (Fangraphs): 2.3 (Starter Level)
2012 WAR (B-Ref): 0.0 (Sub Level)
2012 Salary: $3.825M (Arbitration)
2013 Contract Status: Arbitration (4.108)
Masterson was not a Cy Young candidate last season, but by most measures was a very good pitcher. Masterson was a workhorse in 2011, throwing 216 innings in 33 starts, and averaging roughly 6.1 innings per start. He posted a very nice 3.21 ERA (122 ERA+), largely because he was much better in one category than previous seasons: Walks. In 2010, his first full season as a starter, he walked 3.7 per 9 innings. In 2011 he lowered that to 2.7 per 9.
You might be thinking that he pitched better against left-handed hitters as well, but that was most due to to walks as well. In 2010, left-handed hitters had a slash line of .290/.370/.414, in 2011 they hit .291/.331/.415. The difference wasn't batting average or power, but on-base percentage. By limiting those free passes, he was able to have success even while he struggled against a subset of the batters faced in a game.
So then what was the main driver of his problems in 2012? Walks, with a bit of gopheritis thrown in. Only 2.7% of fly balls hit off Masterson's sinker went over the fence in 2011; in 2012 that number jumped to 13.8%. In other words, Masterson was "hanging" more of his sinkers. His ground-ball percentage didn't change all that much from 2011, and neither did his velocity for that matter, nor the BABIP on his pitches.
So in other words, it wasn't Justin's stuff (velocity or movement), and it wasn't the defense, but his mistakes, whether they were pitches outside the zone, or right down the middle of the plate. The odd thing about this season is that Justin didn't just randomly sprinkle bad pitches throughout an otherwise good start, he'll pitch really really well for several innings at a time (or even games at a time) and just suddenly lose it. I think that's due to high-maintenance mechanics, where if one little facet of his delivery is off just a bit, the whole thing goes haywire.That could happen right from the beginning of the game, or after 3-4 excellent innings.
To prove my point, in 2012 Masterson had Game Scores of more than 60 (6 or more innings, 2 or fewer runs) in 13 of his 34 starts, but 13 Game Scores below 40 (6 or less innings, 4 or more runs).
The good news is that I think Masterson can once again be that dominant starter that we saw in 2011; it's going to take the next pitching coach, whoever that is, to not only improve his standard mechanics, but to be able to quickly fix them if something goes wrong. Easier said than done, I know, but Tim Belcher managed to do it in 2011.
I know this sounds crazy, but this winter might be a good time to extend Justin Masterson. I know there's a risk that he never gets it back together, but you could always move him back to the bullpen if starting becomes a hopeless cause, and if he does manage to figure things out, you'll have a durable and effective starter locked up for the next 3-4 seasons. It's a risk, but a risk that's worth taking. Two years before free agency seems to be the sweet spot for getting a deal done, and if the Indians wait until a successful 2013 to get an extension done, it might be too late.
2012 Game Logs:
Rk | Gcar | Gtm | Date ▴ | Tm | Opp | Rslt | Inngs | Dec | DR | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | HBP | BF | Pit | Str | GSc | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 147 | 1 | Apr 5 | CLE | TOR | L,4-7 | GS-8 | 99 | 8.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1.12 | 27 | 99 | 66 | 83 | ||
2 | 148 | 5 | Apr 11 | CLE | CHW | L,6-10 | GS-5 | L(0-1) | 5 | 5.0 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2.77 | 25 | 94 | 58 | 36 | |
3 | 149 | 9 | Apr 17 | CLE | @ | SEA | W,9-8 | GS-4 | 5 | 3.2 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6.48 | 22 | 71 | 39 | 12 | |
4 | 150 | 14 | Apr 22 | CLE | @ | OAK | L,1-5 | GS-5 | L(0-2) | 4 | 5.0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6.65 | 27 | 111 | 61 | 35 |
5 | 151 | 18 | Apr 27 | CLE | LAA | W,3-2 | GS-9 | 4 | 8.1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 5.40 | 33 | 112 | 62 | 67 | ||
6 | 152 | 23 | May 3 | CLE | @ | CHW | W,7-5 | GS-7 | W(1-2) | 5 | 6.1 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5.20 | 29 | 96 | 63 | 48 |
7 | 153 | 29 | May 8 | CLE | CHW | L,3-5 | GS-6 | 4 | 6.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4.89 | 27 | 109 | 60 | 50 | ||
8 | 154 | 34 | May 13 | CLE | @ | BOS | L,1-12 | GS-6 | L(1-3) | 4 | 6.0 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5.40 | 28 | 94 | 58 | 37 |
9 | 155 | 39 | May 18 | CLE | MIA | L,2-3 | GS-7 | 4 | 7.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5.04 | 26 | 111 | 65 | 59 | ||
10 | 156 | 44 | May 24 | CLE | DET | W,2-1 | GS-7 | W(2-3) | 5 | 7.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4.62 | 31 | 100 | 64 | 62 | |
11 | 157 | 49 | May 29 | CLE | KCR | L,2-8 | GS-6 | L(2-4) | 4 | 6.0 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 5.14 | 28 | 111 | 78 | 32 | |
12 | 158 | 53 | Jun 3 | CLE | MIN | L,3-6 | GS-6 | L(2-5) | 4 | 6.0 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5.09 | 28 | 103 | 62 | 46 | |
13 | 159 | 58 | Jun 9 | CLE | @ | STL | L,0-2 | GS-7 | L(2-6) | 5 | 7.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 4.76 | 25 | 90 | 65 | 69 |
14 | 160 | 63 | Jun 15 | CLE | PIT | W,2-0 | GS-7 | W(3-6) | 5 | 7.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 4.38 | 28 | 109 | 70 | 75 | |
15 | 161 | 68 | Jun 20 | CLE | CIN | W,8-1 | CG | W(4-6) | 4 | 9.0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 3.98 | 30 | 110 | 76 | 88 | |
16 | 162 | 73 | Jun 26 | CLE | @ | NYY | L,4-6 | GS-6 | L(4-7) | 5 | 6.0 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4.09 | 28 | 114 | 70 | 41 |
17 | 163 | 78 | Jul 1 | CLE | @ | BAL | W,6-2 | GS-7 | W(5-7) | 4 | 7.0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3.92 | 26 | 97 | 65 | 68 |
18 | 164 | 83 | Jul 6 | CLE | TBR | L,3-10 | GS-5 | L(5-8) | 4 | 4.1 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 4.40 | 26 | 102 | 57 | 16 | |
19 | 165 | 86 | Jul 13 | CLE | @ | TOR | W,1-0 | GS-7 | W(6-8) | 6 | 7.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4.14 | 25 | 103 | 67 | 71 |
20 | 166 | 91 | Jul 18 | CLE | @ | TBR | W,10-6 | GS-5 | 4 | 4.1 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.29 | 26 | 109 | 62 | 27 | |
21 | 167 | 96 | Jul 23 | CLE | BAL | W,3-1 | GS-8 | W(7-8) | 4 | 7.1 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 4.12 | 28 | 92 | 60 | 65 | |
22 | 168 | 101 | Jul 28 | CLE | @ | MIN | L,5-12 | GS-6 | L(7-9) | 4 | 5.2 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4.47 | 28 | 103 | 66 | 19 |
23 | 169 | 106 | Aug 3 | CLE | @ | DET | L,2-10 | GS-4 | L(7-10) | 5 | 4.0 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4.78 | 25 | 81 | 48 | 14 |
24 | 170 | 111 | Aug 8 | CLE | MIN | W,6-2 | GS-7 | W(8-10) | 4 | 7.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 4.68 | 28 | 111 | 73 | 66 | |
25 | 171 | 116 | Aug 13 | CLE | @ | LAA | W,6-2 | GS-7 | W(9-10) | 4 | 6.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4.50 | 24 | 99 | 56 | 61 |
26 | 172 | 121 | Aug 19 | CLE | @ | OAK | L,0-7 | GS-6 | L(9-11) | 5 | 5.2 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4.73 | 27 | 101 | 63 | 27 |
27 | 173 | 126 | Aug 25 | CLE | NYY | W,3-1 | GS-7 | W(10-11) | 5 | 6.2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4.60 | 29 | 106 | 72 | 60 | |
28 | 174 | 131 | Aug 30 | CLE | OAK | L,7-12 | GS-5 | L(10-12) | 4 | 4.0 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4.91 | 22 | 89 | 53 | 13 | |
29 | 175 | 136 | Sep 4 | CLE | @ | DET | W,3-2 | GS-6 | W(11-12) | 4 | 6.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4.84 | 22 | 93 | 63 | 59 |
30 | 176 | 141 | Sep 10 | CLE | @ | MIN | L,2-7 | GS-7 | L(11-13) | 5 | 6.2 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4.96 | 29 | 94 | 65 | 37 |
31 | 177 | 146 | Sep 15 | CLE | DET | L,3-5 | GS-5 | L(11-14) | 4 | 4.2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 4.93 | 26 | 105 | 62 | 44 | |
32 | 178 | 151 | Sep 21 | CLE | @ | KCR | L,3-6 | GS-6 | L(11-15) | 5 | 6.0 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4.97 | 26 | 99 | 58 | 43 |
33 | 179 | 156 | Sep 26 | CLE | @ | CHW | W,6-4 | GS-5 | 4 | 4.2 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5.03 | 25 | 109 | 59 | 32 | |
34 | 180 | 161 | Oct 2 | CLE | CHW | W,4-3 | GS-6 | 5 | 6.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4.93 | 22 | 99 | 67 | 64 | ||
CLE | 206.1 | 212 | 122 | 113 | 88 | 159 | 18 | 13 | 4.93 | 906 |
Career Stats
Year | Age | Tm | Lg | GS | GF | CG | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | IBB | SO | BF | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2008 | 23 | BOS | AL | 3.16 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 88.1 | 68 | 31 | 31 | 10 | 40 | 3 | 68 | 365 | 147 | 6.9 | 1.0 | 4.1 | 6.9 | 1.70 |
2009 | 24 | TOT | AL | 4.52 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 129.1 | 128 | 73 | 65 | 12 | 60 | 3 | 119 | 568 | 99 | 8.9 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 8.3 | 1.98 |
2009 | 24 | BOS | AL | 4.50 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 72.0 | 72 | 38 | 36 | 7 | 25 | 2 | 67 | 312 | 104 | 9.0 | 0.9 | 3.1 | 8.4 | 2.68 |
2009 | 24 | CLE | AL | 4.55 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 57.1 | 56 | 35 | 29 | 5 | 35 | 1 | 52 | 256 | 94 | 8.8 | 0.8 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 1.49 |
2010 | 25 | CLE | AL | 4.70 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 180.0 | 197 | 107 | 94 | 14 | 73 | 4 | 140 | 802 | 84 | 9.9 | 0.7 | 3.7 | 7.0 | 1.92 |
2011 | 26 | CLE | AL | 3.21 | 33 | 0 | 1 | 216.0 | 211 | 89 | 77 | 11 | 65 | 4 | 158 | 908 | 122 | 8.8 | 0.5 | 2.7 | 6.6 | 2.43 |
2012 | 27 | CLE | AL | 4.93 | 34 | 0 | 1 | 206.1 | 212 | 122 | 113 | 18 | 88 | 1 | 159 | 906 | 79 | 9.2 | 0.8 | 3.8 | 6.9 | 1.81 |
5 Yrs | 4.17 | 121 | 10 | 4 | 820.0 | 816 | 422 | 380 | 65 | 326 | 15 | 644 | 3549 | 98 | 9.0 | 0.7 | 3.6 | 7.1 | 1.98 | |||
162 Game Avg. | 4.17 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 185 | 184 | 95 | 86 | 15 | 74 | 3 | 145 | 802 | 98 | 9.0 | 0.7 | 3.6 | 7.1 | 1.98 | |||
CLE (4 yrs) | 4.27 | 106 | 0 | 4 | 659.2 | 676 | 353 | 313 | 48 | 261 | 10 | 509 | 2872 | 92 | 9.2 | 0.7 | 3.6 | 6.9 | 1.95 | |||
BOS (2 yrs) | 3.76 | 15 | 10 | 0 | 160.1 | 140 | 69 | 67 | 17 | 65 | 5 | 135 | 677 | 124 | 7.9 | 1.0 | 3.6 | 7.6 | 2.08 |