Indians still in on Cespedes
As per Dionisio Soldevila. WFNY points out that the Yankees seem to be out because of the asking price, so it makes you wonder if the Indians will remain "in" much longer.
4 months ago
USSChoo
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I wonder if the fact that he will be a free agent, and that we are no longer allowed to over slot our draft picks has anything to do with our interest… Meaning, in the last few drafts, we have been willing to over-pay on signing bonuses to get a player later that we felt good about. In reality, this guy is similar to a AA player, without the scouting reports or team history in the lower levels. But his age, 27ish shows that he could be in the middle of his prime. They are saying 30-60 million to sign him, I am guessing at a 6 year deal? which really isn’t bad, between 5-10 million a year…That seems like the type of player and contract that we would go for. A guy that is not demanding the 20+ million dollar deal, that we can lock up through his prime, that has solid potential to be the guy that is worth more than he signs for. I doubt it will happen, becasue we don’t have the funds, but the tribe has to take some risks somewhere because we are out of it on the free agent market for big name players, and the advantage we were taking in the draft has been impeeded… High risk, high reward low risk, low reward…
Wait, an unscouted 27-year old AA caliber player is someone the Indians should lock up for 6 years at $5-10 million per?
If he’s unscouted, how do we know what caliber player he is?
by DixonCayne on Jan 13, 2012 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Just taking the description as provided by AdaminFL. There were 30 Cuban-born players active in MLB last year, but I don’t know how many of them came up through the Cuban system. Yonder Alonso, for instance, went to the University of Miami.
At any rate, Yoennis’s people have major league PR skills. Don’t know about Yoennis. Here’s Kevin Goldstein’s video review, for fun.
I guess I should have said limited scouting… I am saying that he is an untested player, similar to a draft pick in that the Indians might be willing to overpay for him on his potential, like we have in the past for overslotted draft picks.
But the Indians have paid out $33 million in draft bonuses— collectively—to all their draft picks from 2007 to 2011, which is the low end of what Yoennis (or Yoenis—internet, make up your mind!) is apparently expecting all by his lonesome.
I should say that I’m all in favor of signing Cespedes, and Prince Fielder, for that matter; it just seems out of character for the team, unless Larry Dolan is in secret negotiations with Carlos Slim or King Bhumibol Adulyadej to provide uncollateralized resources for speculative investments.
What? I thought the deal was done with some Indian conglomerate (Tata??). The only problem is that the right-handed batsman we would be signing is Rahul Dravid, who is clearly on the downside of his career.
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge..." C. Darwin
by Spidey on Jan 13, 2012 7:56 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
That’s his point. The new collective bargaining agreement has altered the market for player acquisitions. In order to stay competitive the Indians FO has to find another area of the market that allows them to best leverage their assets and acquire good players. The theory, according to AdaminFL, is that international signings are that area.
Now, whether I agree with this or not, remains to be seen. But if you’ve done the scouting and you think this guy is a potential everyday player $10 million per year is a reasonable price.
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jan 13, 2012 8:48 PM EST up reply actions
Clay Davenport, who is probably providing some of the best analytical information on Cespedes that is freely available, says he’s not only not a AA player, but comparable to Adam Jones. I wouldn’t guarantee the six years, as that would likely take you into Cespedes’ decline phase, especially if, as Davenport points out, Cespedes is even older than 26, but I think that would be worth close to 10 million a year.
Taking Davenport’s estimate of Cespedes’ MLB equivalency and applying it to the MLB player who matches it—Adam Jones, in this case—has the teleological effect of automatically granting to Cespedes MLB status. If you instead look at minor leaguers who have matched, to some degree, Cespedes’ numbers, what happens? Let’s see:
Davenport characterized Cuban baseball as the equivalent of low-A ball; I upped that a notch and looked at the Carolina League, Florida State League and California League, from 2001 (when MLB instituted random drug testing for all minor leaguers, just in case there were drug-addled numbers rolling around earlier) to 2005; pulling out players who had put up at least a 900 OPS and a 200 ISO in at least 250 PAs during that span. I further weeded out those players who didn’t accomplish the feat at least three times in their minor league careers, to eliminate flashes in the pan or poor matches.
The result: 34 players. Two dozen went on to play major league baseball—a healthy 70%—and ten of them have amassed 5 or more oWAR in their careers thus far—a healthy 30%. There are some familiar names: Brad Hawpe, Josh Willingham, Corey Hart, Jonny Gomes, Nelson Cruz, Howie Kendrick, Billy Butler and Matt Kemp stand out. (Adam Jones, by the way, is not a minor league match.) In total, they’ve had over 36,000 MLB PAs and collected 112 oWAR, or about 60 season’s worth and about 1.9 oWAR per season.
The thing is that Cespedes has more power than almost all of these guys, and might well be what he’s cracked up to be. If he made a quick leap to MLB and put up 1.9 oWAR for six years, at the rough free-agent rate of $4.5 million per WAR, he’d be worth $51.3 million. And that doesn’t count whatever defensive contributions he might make. So paying less than $50 million could be seen as a bargain.
Of course, he could also turn into Paul McAnulty, Brandon Wood or Tagg Bozied.
by YoDaddyWags on Jan 14, 2012 9:43 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Isn’t his defense part of the ballyhoo?
If Choo puts up a big season and becomes a $100 million ballplayer, which seems entirely possible, Cispedes could look like a cheap replacement, though if Yoennis is a hollow man, signing him would be like, or worse than, carrying Hafner’s contract for another three years. The question is whether Antonetti would, as AdaminFL proposes, take the high-risk, high-reward gamble, given the Window of Opportunity (WoO), the Dearth of Outfield Depth in the System (DoODS) and the prospective 2013 outfield of Brantley, Carrera and Crowe (BraCC).
by YoDaddyWags on Jan 14, 2012 12:22 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
from what I hear, Jason Michaels was a six bar player
by APV on Jan 15, 2012 8:18 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
If we flip Hafner to the Yanks to fill their DH need, we’re in business!
by Joel D on Jan 14, 2012 6:18 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
These rumors are ridiculous. So obvious that the Indians don’t have that kind of money. I am fine with that fact, so let’s concentrate on players we can afford.
Len Barker Perfect Game Attendee
He’s not that expensive. I think we can afford him, the question is really just whether he’s worth it.
Don’t we need to do a little gambling to win big?
Because the house always wins. Play long enough, you never change the stakes, the house takes you. Unless, when that perfect hand comes along, you bet and you bet big, then you take the house.
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