Notable Numbers
In putting together some of the offseason prospect write-ups I came across a number of interesting numbers that didn't make it in elsewhere. Here are a few of those, highlighting a couple of guys who might otherwise not get much attention.
62% - TJ McFarland's GB-rate last year in 137+ innings of action at AA Akron, good enough for the Eastern League lead in the category among qualifying pitchers. And actually, aside for a few journeyman minor-league vets, right near the top of the list for qualifying full-season minor league pitchers in general. He put up the same number a year ago in Kinston, so McFarland's figure this year was not anomalous. For such an extreme groundball pitcher, McFarland's K-rate (16.9% in A+, 17.5% in AA) is not bad, but he would certainly benefit from some improvement in his control (8.5% last year) which isn't bad, but given his style of pitching could be better. I can't get the numbers, but I would be interested in what kind of double-play rate McFarland experienced with Akron last year. McFarland had what was probably a decent defense behind him most of the time in Akron last year (particularly Kyle Bellows at 3B, but also Juan Diaz at SS and Karexon Sanchez/Cristo Arnal at 2B), so his overall performance probably benefited, but he still might be something of a sleeper to watch this season given his age and experience.
17.6% - Roberto Perez's BB-rate in Kinston, also good enough for the league lead among qualifying hitters. In Lake County in 2010, Perez put up a similar 17.2% BB-rate. Overall, Perez is not a good hitter. While he might take a lot of walks, his plate discipline is still undercut by a too high K-rate (22.4% last year) given his poor outcome on balls in play (.084 ISO last year, .225 BA despite a .304 BABIP, 54% groundballs). Nevertheless, fresh after being labeled the system's best defensive catcher by BA, Perez seems like a prototypical backup catcher. I am a little surprised we don't hear more about him and/or see the Indians handle his development a little more aggressively. He is currently taking part in the Indians winter development program in Cleveland, so maybe this is the year we see and hear more from him.
21% - LeVon Washington's listed line-drive percentage last year with Lake County, good for second in the Midwest League among qualified batters. I have no idea how good the ball-in-play scoring is across the minors, but this (along with Wash's 14.0% BB-rate) might be one of the few encouraging numbers from an otherwise dreadful debut season for the 2010 pick. Back of the envelope calculations suggest that given his LD%, LeVon got pretty unlucky on his balls-in-play, with a BABIP of .298 (compared to the other guys on the leaderboard, with BABIPs between .331 and .408).
30.4% - The K% for Toru (or Tooru) Murata in Kinston last season. Murata, 26, signed as a free-agent out of Japan last offseason (Tony has a nice writeup of this at IPI), so this was his debut season with the organization. Murata is too old to be a prospect in the traditional sense, but was a former high profile prospect in Japan. His strikeout numbers last year far exceeded anything he had put up in Japan and may reflect his mastery over the level of competition, but could also suggest the benefit of adjustments from the Indians staff. He also put up a near 6:1 KK/B ratio, a number that moved upward as the season went on. I would suspect the Indians will be more aggressive with Murata's placement and usage this season and could be another sleeper pitching prospect.
.365/34/6 - The on-base percentage, SB and CS for Kinston centerfielder, Tyler Holt. Holt, like Perez, was recognized by BA for his defensive prowess, earning the "best defensive outfielder" label in the recent Indians overview piece. Holt might be the best of the Indians speedy, no-pop centerfielders (e.g. Jordan Henry, Delvi Cid, Ezequiel Carrera). In his brief 2010 debut with Lake County he was able to use his speed to rack up decent power (.171 ISO) with 8 2Bs and 2 3Bs in just 89 plate appearances. Last year, in a full season of play he only managed 18 doubles, four triples and two homeruns. If he can improve those numbers a little, his defense, on-base abilities and speed might make him a guy worth watching.
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At Case Western. And I meant tomorrow, not today.
"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway
by notthatnoise on Jan 18, 2012 5:04 PM EST up reply actions
Another number…
.224 - The isolated power (ISO, SLG-BA) of both Beau Mills and Jared Goedert last season. Both saw extended time at Columbus, both can play 1B, both had decent K-rates (< 20%) and both are right-handed. Neither of them look like a solution to any problem worth solving, but should the Indians not do any additional upgrades before spring training and should an injury create an opening, Beau Mills might be positioned to take advantage of the opportunity.
I didn’t realize he was only 24 last year
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jan 18, 2012 1:32 PM EST up reply actions
An old 24. He’ll be 26 this coming August, so he certainly is not young anymore. But I was actually somewhat surprised to go back and look at his numbers from this past season a little more closely. Columbus is a plus hitters environment, but Mills hit even better while in Akron in what is much more of a pitcher’s park. His walk-rate isn’t great, but that is somewhat ameliorated by the fact that he was actually an above average contact hitter last year while maintaining above average power. Attempts to produce better minor league defensive metrics in the past have suggested he is a good defender at first, though it would be good to see more of those data as well as his platoon splits. He is hardly blowing open the door to Cleveland, but he has positioned himself to be standing near its vicinity.
Yes. The Indians switched him to first full-time his first full season in the organization. I think they just saw his body and quickness and saw him as at first.
And another one…
9.9 – That was Kelvin De La Cruz’s strikeouts per 9 innings. A good number until you see the 6 walks/9IP he allowed, which in addition to being bad, help drive down his K% to (a still quite good) 25.3%. Ks and BBs don’t tell De La Cruz’s whole story from last season, though, which included a switch to the bullpen late in the season. Generally these kinds of moves disappoint me, because they fundamentally lower a guy’s ceiling. But De La Cruz put up interesting numbers in his brief bullpen stint. In his 7 appearances out of the pen Kelvin struck out 11 of the 25 batters he faced (44%). De La Cruz could turn into another interesting bullpen arm to watch this season…
Was there a specific explanation for the move to the pen? Or was it simply a matter of performance?
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Jan 18, 2012 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
His switch to the pen came after a DL-stint associated with shoulder inflammation. Tony Lastoria had an unsourced comment at the end of August when he returned that said the return to the bullpen was because there was not enough time in the season to build him back up to start. However, he has seen action out of the bullpen in the Dominican League this winter as well. So…I suppose it is wait and see what the Indians do with him to begin the year. His health record is not so great (86IP in ’11, 127 in ’10, 19 in ’09, 130 in ’08), so a full-time bullpen conversion might be in order, though I think there is room in the Akron rotation if he is up for it.
I’d rec this twice if I could. Nice job of analysis, and nice job of writing it up in an interesting and straightforward format. It’s hard to sort through a large volume of data, like the ml stats for the whole system, and separate the relevant from the irrelevant, so it’s great when somebody else does it for you. For free. Thanks!
by InfiniteMonkeyTypists on Jan 19, 2012 9:16 AM EST reply actions

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