Russ Canzler Enters 1B/LF Fracas
The Indians added Russ Canzler from the Rays today, acquiring him for cash and a willingness to throw him on the 40. Canzler will compete against Matt LaPorta and, probably to a lesser extent, the pile of LF'ers the Indians have (Felix Pie, Aaron Cunningham, and favorite in the clubhouse Michael Brantley) for time at 1B and LF.
Canzler was drafted out of high school in the 30th round of the 2004 draft by the Chicago Cubs. He never hit at anything close to a prospect-level until he was getting his second look at AA. That was too late for the Cubs, though. Teams get six contract renewals with a player before they are forced to either grant him free agency or add him to the 40-man roster. The Cubs used last offseason to tackle their 1B deficiency aggressively when they signed Carlos Peña, and that plan was certainly already being formed when they elected to let Canzler walk.
Similarly, the Rays must have known that Peña's contract demands were not going to fit within their budget when they entered the winter break and, as a result, they went looking for ways to bolster depth. The eventual solution came in the form of Casey Kotchman but earlier in the ofseason, in mid-November, they signed Canzler to a minor-league contract as a way to backstop their free agent shopping and gird against injury.
For his part of the bargain, Canzler got to play Speaker of the House (that's 3rd in line) to President Kotchman and Vice President Dan Johnson. He also got regular time at AAA, appearing in 1B, 3B, RF, and LF, splitting duties with Johnson, among others. Canzler did well with that playing time and was rewarded with his first taste of the major leagues, appearing in three September games after rosters expanded. You can evaluate Canzler's 2011, and the rest of his minor league career, for yourself:
| Year | Age | Tm | Lev | Aff | G | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 18 | Cubs | Rk | CHC | 32 | 119 | 26 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 35 | .248 | .310 | .352 | .663 |
| 2005 | 19 | Cubs | Rk | CHC | 49 | 188 | 47 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 41 | .299 | .387 | .427 | .814 |
| 2006 | 20 | Boise | A- | CHC | 73 | 311 | 74 | 22 | 4 | 16 | 22 | 70 | .264 | .319 | .543 | .862 |
| 2007 | 21 | Peoria | A | CHC | 125 | 503 | 124 | 24 | 2 | 7 | 35 | 88 | .270 | .321 | .376 | .697 |
| 2008 | 22 | Daytona | A+ | CHC | 98 | 361 | 89 | 22 | 2 | 12 | 27 | 70 | .273 | .327 | .463 | .790 |
| 2009 | 23 | 2 Teams | AA-A+ | CHC | 118 | 375 | 87 | 23 | 1 | 8 | 38 | 65 | .261 | .337 | .408 | .745 |
| 2009 | 23 | Daytona | A+ | CHC | 28 | 108 | 27 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 24 | .270 | .315 | .430 | .745 |
| 2009 | 23 | Tennessee | AA | CHC | 90 | 267 | 60 | 15 | 0 | 6 | 31 | 41 | .258 | .346 | .399 | .745 |
| 2010 | 24 | Tennessee | AA | CHC | 112 | 411 | 102 | 28 | 4 | 21 | 46 | 95 | .287 | .372 | .566 | .938 |
| 2011 | 25 | Durham | AAA | TBR | 131 | 549 | 149 | 40 | 4 | 18 | 67 | 129 | .314 | .401 | .530 | .930 |
So, the trajectory here is of a 1B-type who never does anything of note until he becomes a bit too old for his level, taking on the man-among-boys mantle and, even at that point, still not setting the world on fire. His 2010 and 2011 were decent go-rounds, but he struggles in some key areas. Notably, Canzler has a lot of swing-and-miss in his game, and his power, while good looking the SLG column, is more tied up in doubles than any Canzler-devotees would like to see. Stop me if you've heard this one, but AAA doubles are often the product of poor fielding combined with some decent contact, and at the big league level, those balls stop finding inflated gaps.
It's fun to think of Canzler as having the upside of a Phil Nevin or Nelson Cruz, late-blooming sluggers, but those gentlemen each have creation stories that don't comp easily to our man Russ. Nevin was rushed, then injured and when he finally clicked, it was as a 25 year-old with 24 AAA home runs in only 98 games; if you add in his stint in the majors that year, he had 32 taters 136 games. You can back of the napkin how different that is from Canzler's power display and the G/HR rates are quite different: Canzler went yard about every 7 games in AAA, while Nevin did it every 4.25 across AAA and the majors. In other words, Russ was setting off a bottle rocket in his driveway while Phil was running the 4th of July finale for the the local parks department. Nevin still had a lot to figure out, but he showed a power tool that Canzler has not.
The Cruz story is much the same and I'll abbreviate it. Nelson hit 46 homeruns as a 22 and 23 y/o across all four minor league levels; Russ hit only 39 as a 24 and 25 y/o in AA and AAA. Again, the comparison is the same: cap gun, meet cannon. Granted, HR totals in a vacuum aren't indicative of pedigree but in the context of Cruz and Nevin's scouting reports, it's clear that there's a difference between Canzler and the genuine article.
None of this is to say that Canzler isn't a cagey acquisition. He was acquired for little cost and no one should be shocked if he wins a job out of camp: he's right-handed and, at a minimum, he has not had time to condition Manny Acta's throat to fill with stomach acid the way it does when Matt LaPorta steps into the batter's box. And, of course, we can be hard on Canzler, but it takes all kinds of trajectories to fill out 30 rosters and it would not be shocking if Canzler has turned enough of a corner to hang around as a useful piece for a number of major league seasons. He could easily fashion a Shelley Duncan career for himself or, on the high side, turn into a less defensively capable Casey Blake. If he were able to do either of those things, he'd help the Indians a lot in the process.
We'll close with a note from an expert. Kevin Goldstein wrote up Canzler as part of his piece on minor league MVPs (Canzler hoisted the IL MVP trophy last season), and he stated all of what I did above, just much more succinctly:
Canzler is a classic upper-level MVP, a 25-year-old former 30th-round pick by the Cubs who signed with the Rays over the winter as a free agent. He’s in his eighth minor-league season. As a bulky, slow first baseman who can also play left field, he's a good bat, but not good enough to everyday big-league play at either position. His right-handedness doesn’t help his cause. Canzler’s .314/.401/.530 line is impressive, but a high strikeout rate and merely average power will likely leave him as an up-and-down type.
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Yes. As badly as you want Kotchman, I would have thought you’d be tracking that.
Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.
by USSChoo on Jan 31, 2012 1:16 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
OK, If your the GM and you have to decide between two guys, player A has a career OPS of .701 and player B has a career OPS of .733 and is better defensively (even though overall defensive metrics say they are of the same defensive value the past two years), which one do you chose if you know player B costs $6M more for the year? Is the .032 OPS difference worth that much money?
Kotchman manages to get on base 1 more time in 9 games and that difference is worth $6m. Those are the career stats. If your point is Laporta doesn’t hit MLB pitching, neither does Kotchman.
What does regression towards the mean tell you about where to predict those two players for next season?
It’s a mean world out there, and Matt LaPorta sucks.
by Jay on Feb 1, 2012 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
Not confident Kotchman gets anywhere near $6mil at this point. Teams in need of a 1B are dwindling fast.
Fear the Fedora.
by MooneysRebellion on Jan 31, 2012 2:58 PM EST up reply actions
If the FO liked Kotchman, he’d have been signed already. Based on nothing but a hunch, I think there’s another trade yet to come.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Jan 31, 2012 6:23 PM EST up reply actions
Um… oops.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Feb 3, 2012 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Kotchman did have one decent year as a result of an abnormally high BABIP. It’s not like he was all of a sudden hitting lasers into the gaps.
by mmorgan184 on Jan 31, 2012 3:03 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Your completely missing the point. What’s available right now is not great or even good. Kotchman is slightly better than LaPorta and may not be as good as a hitter as Duncan. I want the best 1B in the league, just like you. I would hate to see the team sign a stiff to make folks who don’t understand what they are getting happy. $6m wasted on slightly better than LaPorta doesn’t help the team. $6m saved is the best option if its Kotchman or keep looking.
I’m not sure where the $6M is coming from, but yes I think it’s OK to spend some money to find someone who is better than LaPorta. Even if it is only a modest improvement.
And I get your point, but it’s leading to us having LaPorta at 1B, which is unacceptable.
It would be awesome though, if LaPorta had a monster season.
Well, at the age of both, which one is more likely regress? The salary part is a guess. Even at $4m your looking at lots of money per hit for a dozen or two hits more over a season. If LaPorta is not acceptable at first, neither should be Kotchman. Save the money, find a deal for a truly better 1B.
Although you are a little more consistent than I would prefer about the 1B discussion, I think you’re right here:
And I get your point, but it’s leading to us having LaPorta at 1B, which is unacceptable.
Bottom-line, if Laporta is our plan for a starting first basemen, then something has failed, and someone is out of ideas.
Purely based on sales, there is a 90% chance that you own at least two NIckelback albums.
Depends on what you spend the rest of that cash ($6 million – league min salary). Are we getting the chance to use that money to upgrade another of the 25 man roster spots? Or does that money get to go in bank vault or some other area of the non-25 man roster area of the organization?
See Bastian’s answer to Andrew’s question. I’d guess a budget has been set and they’ll use it somehow.
If your asking my opinion, I hope that they can work a trade for either solid OFer or 1B. But what can you trade to get anything of value? It’ll have to be deal like Lowe or the proposed Carlos Lee deal. Again something less than optimal and probably why nothing has happened so far.
Yeah the Carlos Lee deal is pretty close to acceptable in my opinion. Of course a better deal would be welcomed, but there isn’t much to deal at the moment.
Lee would likely be an upgrade, but not much. He’s averaged 1.2 oWAR the past 3 years. Granted, it’s nearly 10x what LaPorta has averaged the past 3 years, but he’ll be 36 compared to LaPorta at 27. Not sure it would be worth the acquisition cost for such a marginal upgrade.
Anything to help motivate LaPorta to play better. Sometimes, all you need is a reminder that your job isn’t guaranteed.
Ohio's premier Russian fan.
I think this motivation angle is overplayed. Do you honestly believe a Major League player needs a reminder that his job is always in jeopardy?
Our minds are mysterious things, especially to ourselves.
It’s really hard to say what exactly will motivate a specific person effectively. See also the discussion regarding performance in high-leverage situations.
by Jay on Feb 1, 2012 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
Certainly. All the more reason to avoid making the assumption that competition will motivate. Based on his performance after his demotion, perhaps the reminder worked, but that also assumes we have to ignore all of his other stats when his job was also in jeopardy.
I don’t think it’s a blind assumption, but it’s more like, maybe this will help. Also, assumptions get made with varying degrees of strength based on the staff’s specific knowledge of specific players.
I’ll tell you this much, I don’t think DiamondView has much to say about it.
by Jay on Feb 2, 2012 6:51 PM EST up reply actions
Well, it’s not like LaPorta has faced much competition in Cleveland for the 1B spot,
Ohio's premier Russian fan.
Right, as I recall, we played out the rest of the season with an imaginary first baseman.
"Lotta heart in Cleveland." - Ian Hunter
by Denver Tribe Fan on Feb 1, 2012 3:02 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t think so, I think there was certain roster issues at work for sure, but it was clear the LaPorta was “demoted” in the truest sense of the word.
Not like Santana did much better at 1B.
Ohio's premier Russian fan.
by Heavysoviet on Feb 1, 2012 6:13 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Ah, well, my point rests more on LaPorta being demoted because of what he was doing with his bat. His defense was mediocre, which isn’t bad, but also not worth keeping him up at the ML level when his bat was so terrible.
Someone needs to tell the front office to send word along to Edwin Jackson’s agent that Progressive Field is a very friendly stadium for flyball pitchers.
by APV on Jan 31, 2012 3:03 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
I was thinking the exact same thing if he really is looking for that one year deal.
Fear the Fedora.
by MooneysRebellion on Jan 31, 2012 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
Hell, so is Detroit and Minnesota’s stadiums, which he’d get to pitch in frequently.
Fear the Fedora.
by MooneysRebellion on Jan 31, 2012 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
Best not to tell him that, though. Or at least tell him that Minneapolis is considerably colder than Cleveland and that Detroit will butcher his BABIP numbers.
My Prodigy account is sending me messages that Edwin Jackson is signing a 1-year deal with Washington. Looks like another missed upgrade.
by APV on Feb 2, 2012 2:02 PM EST up reply actions
Doesn’t look like his defense is even average in the IF. Read a couple of comments (TB writer for one) and saw 30 errors in 96 games at 3B the last 2 years. 7 errors in 44 games at 1B. I realize errors aren’t the best measure but don’t have any other stats.
Interestingly, Canzler is 4 months older than Mills. Not sure what that means about Canzler, but it certainly makes Mills slip further into the abyss.
by The DiaTriber on Feb 1, 2012 3:54 PM EST up reply actions
Good point
Len Barker Perfect Game Attendee
by PortlandVinny on Feb 1, 2012 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
The difference is that it almost matters how young Canzler is, whereas Mills’ age is just irrelevant.
I don’t deny the premier importance of age, but I think the number of years of pro-ball you have been exposed to is also an important factor. Both Mills and Canzler are reaching the end of the spectrum where that almost certainly matters less, but it should be noted that even though he is younger, Canzler has a full three extra years of pro ball under his belt.
by APV on Feb 2, 2012 8:01 AM EST up reply actions
To which I will counter, Beau Mills has always sucked.
by Jay on Feb 2, 2012 6:51 PM EST up reply actions
except for those two months in high A or whatever.
yeah, whatever.
I like ex-Phillies prospects.
by Gradyforpresident on Feb 2, 2012 6:57 PM EST up reply actions
Really questioning the FO’s long-term planning now. Why would they dump Constanza last year and preclude a Constanzler platoon??
by cleveland teamer on Jan 31, 2012 7:02 PM EST reply actions 4 recs
Rob Neyer in Baseball Nation:
The history of players like Canzler who apparently nobody really wants isn’t encouraging. Another season or two in the minors, no matter how well he hits, means a spot on everybody’s Quadruple-A All-Star Team.
But every now and then. . . . What about Jayson Werth and Shane Victoriano? Casey Blake?
by ken from alexandria on Feb 1, 2012 11:43 AM EST reply actions
He swings an absolute log
Good to know.
by JulioBernazard on Feb 1, 2012 1:11 PM EST up reply actions
Link.
I don’t suppose his [Canzler’s] 2011 Major League Equivalency (MLE) would be all that impressive, but still good enough for some sort of job with the Indians, especially considering how many plate appearances have been wasted on Matt LaPorta’s potential over the last three seasons.
Not much of a Door fan, that Neyer.
by JulioBernazard on Feb 1, 2012 1:22 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t know why Neyer brings up his MLEs but then doesn’t tell us what they are (or maybe bother looking them up)? Based on Jeff Sackman’s old numbers (here), Canzler’s 2011 in Durham would translate to Cleveland as a .272/.343/.445….a result we’d all probably be ok with.
by APV on Feb 1, 2012 1:40 PM EST up reply actions
Wow, sign me up for those MLEs. But I’m not putting a whole lot of faith into Canzler’s late bloom, myself.
LaPorta, AAA (483 PA’s over 3 seasons, age 24-26):
.313/.400/.553, 29 (2B+3B), 23 HR
Canzler, AAA (549 PA’s, 1 season, age 25):
.314/.401/.530, 44 (2B+3B), 18 HR
And Canzler’s not the one with the super-prospect pedigree.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Feb 1, 2012 6:29 PM EST up reply actions
That last sentence is why Canzler won’t get 900 sucky MLB PAs to play with. I guess Canzler has to have 100 terrific PAs, counting ST, to win and hold a major league job.
Of course, Casey Blake was hiting 230/300/385 through mid-May of his rookie year, so it helps to marry the boss’s daughter. He did, didn’t he?
Hadn’t those guys basically already broken through to the majors, in an age-appropriate way, but were then slowed by injuries?
Very tough to be a major leaguer when you’re a mediocre minor leaguer clear through age 23.
by Jay on Feb 1, 2012 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
True enough. Sometimes guys get slowed down by a position change (Werth was originally a catcher in the Orioles system). And sometimes injuries (Werth again). But guys like Victorino and Blake might have just been misjudged. Other guys become valuable all of a sudden because of some kind of role change (like Jose Mesa, from starter to reliever). But yeah, late bloomers (I always think of Maury Wills) are pretty rare.
by ken from alexandria on Feb 1, 2012 3:02 PM EST up reply actions
Fauxberto.
Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile
by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Feb 1, 2012 6:29 PM EST up reply actions
Interesting you should say that because when I saw the news, I thought “Russ Canzler doesn’t sound like a baseball player”
Perhaps, but Jordan Brown sounds like a guy in a boy band.
by Jay on Feb 2, 2012 1:46 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

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