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Missing Matt LaPorta

The acquisition of Russ Canzler is the perfect segue into a look back at Matt LaPorta's 2011 relative to some of my thoughts from a year ago on what has ailed the disappointing "slugger." In the comments to that piece, I suggested a few positive indicators to look for from Matt in 2011.

  • Higher average ball speed on HRs (>105)
  • Fewer balls hit to the right side of the field (<25%)
  • Greater performance on balls hit the opposite way (>.400 OPS)
  • Fewer swinging strikes (<11%)
  • Less swinging at pitches outside of the zone (<30%)
  • Greater contact on pitches overall (>75%)
Those I have highlighted in bold are things he actually achieved this past season. My overall take last year was that LaPorta struggles against major league quality breaking and offspeed pitches, causing him to make poor contact and swing and miss too often. The result of LaPorta's weaknesses being too many weak outs to right field, too many Ks, and an overall lack of hitting ability and power. Not good for a former slugging top prospect.

2011 was not an entire disaster for LaPorta, despite the .247/.299/.412 line he produced. In particular, LaPorta actually did a much better going to the opposite field last year. LaPorta did actually reduce the percentage of balls in play to the right side to just under 25%, but perhaps more significantly, improved his line on balls to right field to .361/.355/.574. This was a dramatic leap from the sub .300 OPS on balls to the right side he had produced the past two seasons and not, based on his .333 BABIP to the right, simply the result of luck. LaPorta had nine extra-base hits to right last year, seven more than he produced in his career prior to 2011. LaPorta's success pulling the ball was not hurt in the process either, as he put up a .986 OPS to left. So why did he suck? Part of the answer seems to be he got on balls hit to center, hitting a career worst .661 on balls that direction, fueled by a .238 BABIP.

LaPorta's gains in hitting to the opposite field appear to reflect an improvement in his ability to hit breaking pitches (at least against RHP). As I noted last year, LaPorta sees very few fastballs. LaPorta was the only member of the 2011 Tribe to see less than 50% fastballs (49.2% according to fangraphs), and saw more sliders (22.5%) than anyone. The good news is that for the first time in his career he produced positive results (again based on fangraphs numbers) on both types of pitches. Changeups and curveballs were a different, and less encouraging, story. In summary, the good news is that LaPorta seems to have made some real adjustments last year that produced better results on at least some breaking pitches, giving him a better ability to utilize the whole field.

The bad news is these improvements still left LaPorta far short of being a good hitter.

Star-divide

And here the movement from 2010 to 2011 is not in a positive direction. LaPorta had swinging strikes on a career high 13.8% of the pitches he saw in 2011. His strikeout rate jumped over 22%, his walk rate fell by nearly half, and his K/BB ratio spiked from 1.78 to 3.78. His overall contact rate dipped to 71%, eight points below the league average. As he has done every season since he's been in the majors, he chased nearly 1/3 of the pitches he saw outside the strike zone (and as you might guess, pitchers don't pound the zone when LaPorta is at bat). Laporta must have been one of the worst batters in the league when he was ahead in the count, hitting just .226/.375/.321 in those situations.

Matt LaPorta's basic hit tool - his ability to see a pitch, recognize it, decide to swing or not, and make solid contact - is horrible. This is surprising for a guy with a career batting average at AAA of .313 and an overall minor league average of .298. Injuries, including a pitch to the head during Olympic play and offseason hip and toe surgery before the 2010 season, are almost certainly part of it. Last year was supposed to be the year it was different, as LaPorta had more time to rest and work out to prepare himself for the season. After a hot start, LaPorta declined every month until September garbage time. The Indians have filed positive reports on LaPorta's health and swing mechanics this offseason, but count me as a skeptic. Had LaPorta turned into what he looked like he would be in 2007 and 2008, the upcoming season would have a much rosier glow to it. Sadly, that version of reality is no longer possible.

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Comments

Display:

Nice.
My write up would have been:

Matt LaPorta was supposed to be good according to both his scouting reports and minor league stats. Turns out he sucks and his sucking is a large obstacle to the Indians contending in 2012.

by Cols714 on Jan 31, 2012 6:03 PM EST reply actions  

Still seems lengthy. It could be: “And LaPorta waves at another pitch outside, strike 3.”

Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.

by USSChoo on Feb 1, 2012 12:09 AM EST up reply actions  

I really hope LaPorta steps it up this year. I think he may be a big surprise this year.

BREAKING NEWS! Apple is releasing a special edition LeBron James iPhone. Problem is it only vibrates b/c it has no RING!...

by siejecy on Jan 31, 2012 6:09 PM EST reply actions  

Laporta is the most disappointing player on this team by a mile. Could you imagine how different the outlook on this season would be if we had the player we all thought Matt would be at 1B instead of the mess we have now?

by tr1betime on Jan 31, 2012 6:40 PM EST reply actions  

What I really hate is that he’s now 27 and, instead of being exciting lead-ins to what should be the beginning of his peak seasons, the last two years make you wonder if the guy is just going to be on a career injury/recovery cycle with lower performance peaks and longer injury stretches as he ages. Truth is, though, I’m stupidly optimistic. We could really use a good season from him, and I’m hoping we see it. So does Boras.

by MTF on Jan 31, 2012 6:41 PM EST reply actions  

the last two years make you wonder if the guy is just going to be on a career injury/recovery cycle with lower performance peaks and longer injury stretches as he ages.

Korean League in two years.

Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile

by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Jan 31, 2012 8:47 PM EST up reply actions  

His AAA stats suggest Japan League is his floor. There’s a major league regular in there somewhere.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 31, 2012 8:55 PM EST up reply actions  

You should probably consider his ML stats as well in making that last statement. Those stats seem to say otherwise.

by hans on Feb 1, 2012 12:41 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

He’d be OK if he were a SS or a catcher. Maybe a position change is in order.

by callmrplow on Feb 2, 2012 9:03 AM EST up reply actions  

I want to be positive about Laporta, but this breakdown is depressing. Maybe we can pull a Shin Soo Choo at 1B.

De La Cruz for Brandon Allen?

Justin Masterson for Kendrys Morales?

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 31, 2012 8:47 PM EST reply actions  

Justin for Kendry? No thanks.

by ahowie on Jan 31, 2012 10:10 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Yea, please do not trade Masterson. Read this Shapiro!

by Roger Dorn on Jan 31, 2012 11:25 PM EST up reply actions  

I’m all for trading him if we get great value, which is not Morales.

by ahowie on Feb 1, 2012 10:15 PM EST up reply actions  

history shows that hitters recover from long term injuries quite well. Injury is the only way you get a hitter like Morales for Masterson.

If he’s healthy this year, he will be worth more than Masterson by mid-May.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 2, 2012 2:22 AM EST up reply actions  

Are you serious? He’s not Albert Pujols. Masterson’s best season (4.9 WAR) was better than Morales (3.4 WAR). At most you’ve just shuffled 4~ WAR away for 4~ WAR in return (I know you have to consider replacements but you’re not getting much bang for your buck when you replace Matt LaPorta/New guy from TB value by Jeanmar Gomez value). Kind of spinning your tires there, right?

by hans on Feb 2, 2012 11:55 AM EST up reply actions  

He had a .382 wOBA and 34 HRs in a pitcher’s park. WAR dinged him for baserunning. I’m not a fan of WAR at all. I don’t buy the baserunning and defensive metrics, as they are highly subjective.

I think Masterson is a good pitcher. I’d take Morales for him though. Just my personal opinion. I realize there is a good argument against doing this.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 2, 2012 4:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Please let me know where you and your friend Kendry will be sitting to watch the games, as I would like to stop by and offer you a chance to purchase some magic beans I recently acquired.

Seriously, Morales last played a major league game on May 29th, 2010. Not 2011. 2010. And you would give up Justin Masterson for him? Are you sure you didn’t mean to post this on Halos Heaven?

by InfiniteMonkeyTypists on Feb 2, 2012 6:19 PM EST up reply actions  

I think Masterson’s weaknesses vs lefties are permanent. It’s just how his stuff plays. This limits his upside.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 2, 2012 2:21 AM EST up reply actions  

You realize that Masterson’s weakness against lefties resulted in a .746 OPS against right? And that, coupled with his absolute domination of righties (.560), resulted in a pretty great performance.

by APV on Feb 2, 2012 8:07 AM EST up reply actions  

Which was almost exactly league average last year. So lefties are league average and righties are miserable. I think I’ll keep him.

Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.

by USSChoo on Feb 2, 2012 10:24 AM EST up reply actions  

Went looking for the BIP split expecting he’d had some good luck in 2011. I was wrong — .321 BABIP against lefty batters in 2011.

To clarify, the 746 OPS is league average for LHB vs. RHP, not for LHB overall.

In sum, Masterson was about exactly average as a RHP facing lefties. He was far above average as a RHP facing righties.

by Jay on Feb 2, 2012 7:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Thus my point. I don’t see how his incredible ability to dominate righties will improve much, therefore, any improvement will more likely have to come vs lefties.

I think his fastball/slider combo is maxed out vs lefties given his extreme sidearm motion, so unless he adds another pitch, I doubt he takes the next step to elite.

I believe Morales is an elite player. History shows that batters recover extremely well from even long term injuries like this. Perhaps we could squeeze out another pitching prospect for the risk, but based on what I’m reading, I don’t think it’s necessary. It’s possible his recovery hasn’t gone as well as reported. I’m reading he’s fine now.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 3, 2012 1:37 AM EST up reply actions  

Why does he need to improve, though? You wouldn’t be pleased with him simply repeating 2011 over and over for a few seasons?

by ahowie on Feb 3, 2012 1:55 AM EST up reply actions  

I’d be delighted. I think I’m being misinterpreted here.

I really really like Masterson. I love Morales. We agree on how good Masterson. I think Morales is the type of hitter that is usually out of the Indians’ price range via FA, and it’s very difficult to develop a guy like him.

We’re not disagreeing on Masterson. We’re disagreeing on Morales.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 3, 2012 2:02 AM EST up reply actions  

I’m more confused with your love of Morales. He is freakishly broken in a way that is hard to project his recovery. On top of that, his career best isn’t really that great.

by APV on Feb 3, 2012 9:27 AM EST up reply actions  

Dude’s a beast. I’d be gambling on his health for sure. If healthy, him and Pujols are going to destroy this league.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 3, 2012 10:55 AM EST up reply actions  

He has been, at times, very good, but “beast” like? He has average contact abilities, but not to the extent of Vlad Guerrero in his prime, where his unwillingness to take a walk doesn’t hurt him. That makes his success heavily dependent on his power and luck on balls in play, the former of which was only really “very good” in 2009. These numbers become even worse when you realize that he is limited to first-base at best, and DH at worst.

by APV on Feb 3, 2012 11:17 AM EST up reply actions  

The Angels held him back way too long and screwed with his playing time. In his first full year where they left him alone, he almost won the MVP.

I’m very high on him, and I’m reserving judgement until he can establish himself as a long term regular. Based on his minor league performance and his absolute destruction of major league pitching in his first regular stint, I think his contact rates will improve drastically eventually.

I think he’s going to be a mega-star.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 3, 2012 11:44 AM EST up reply actions  

3.8 WAR

Great season, not an MVP-type season.

by Jay on Feb 3, 2012 12:30 PM EST up reply actions  

For context, Kenny Lofton had EIGHT seasons that were better than that, and two of them were strike-shortened.

by Jay on Feb 3, 2012 12:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Proving, as usual, that Lofton is criminally underrated outside of Cleveland.

Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile

by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Feb 3, 2012 5:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, it does also prove that.

by Jay on Feb 3, 2012 10:09 PM EST up reply actions  

65.3 WAR for Lofton’s career.
Barry Larkin, 68.9, HOF.
Just sayin’.

by Bogalusa Bomber on Feb 5, 2012 5:04 AM EST up reply actions  

But SS vs CF. The positional value adjustments put CF more on par with 2nd or 3rd base.

Not saying Lofton isn’t a worthy HOF candidate (Lofton 65 WAR, Rice 41), but I think it’s disingenuous to compare him to Larkin.

by callmrplow on Feb 6, 2012 9:38 AM EST up reply actions  

Has SS been more talent-rich the past 2 decades, even moreso than CF?

by emd2k3 on Feb 7, 2012 11:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Again, dinged a .380 wOBA for “baserunning”.

War, what is it good for? (rhetorical)

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 4, 2012 1:24 AM EST up reply actions  

He was dinged for three marginal runs — not wins, runs. Stole three bases and was caught seven times. I see nothing excessive in this.

More to the point, Lofton still had eight better seasons.

by Jay on Feb 4, 2012 2:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Lofton is one of my favorite players of all time. Doesn’t change the fact that I think good defense is overrated, and that Morales can be great.

We are comparing one of the best players of the past 20 years with a guy who’d had 1 full season.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 4, 2012 3:08 PM EST up reply actions  

You’re the one who said Morales was a near-MVP. Lofton never finished in the Top 3 and only twice in the 10. I think it’s a fair comparison given the kind of claims you made about that one season.

by Jay on Feb 4, 2012 6:14 PM EST up reply actions  

I didn’t see he’s a near MVP, the baseball writers did when they voted him 5th in his first full season in major league baseball.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 4, 2012 7:42 PM EST up reply actions  

So you’re now claiming that you weren’t saying he was a great player, that you were only claiming he had a great rep?

Come on. “You have a point” isn’t that hard to say, is it?

by Jay on Feb 5, 2012 2:00 AM EST up reply actions  

Hence, it takes a lot more than common language to communicate.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 5, 2012 2:58 AM EST up reply actions  

Let me re-phrase this. Would you have taken a healthy Morneau for a guy like Masterson?

Morneau was my comp for Morales as a prospect, and I actually think I may have undersold him. I think Morales is a Morneau with slightly more power and a better arm.

Like I said, we disagree on Morales, not Masterson. I love Masterson, but there’s a price for everyone.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 3, 2012 2:08 AM EST up reply actions  

I think the disagreement might really be over how to interpret Morales’ injury. Post-2011 Masterson for pre-2010 injury Morales is a discussion for me. Morales after this layoff? Just doesn’t have Masterson’s value, currently. If he did, Pujols likely wouldn’t be in LA.

by afh4 on Feb 3, 2012 8:11 AM EST up reply actions  

Right.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 3, 2012 10:53 AM EST up reply actions  

I think the confusion is simply that nobody else is worrying about Masterson’s capacity to improve, which admittedly is probably quite small. We just want him to hold on to what he’s already achieved.

by Jay on Feb 3, 2012 10:29 AM EST up reply actions  

If he does it again, I’ll buy into him. I have concern that last season is the high end of his range, and his value can only go down, which is a dangerous place to be with a pitcher.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 3, 2012 11:02 AM EST up reply actions  

I don’t see anything “dangerous” about it. Evidently, eating 200 innings even at Fauxberto level is worth a $7 million salary. Masterson is highly likely to be at least somewhat better than that. He was four Wins better than replacement last season, which is about two Wins better than average, and average is worth a lot. He’s healthy, he’s consistently been around 6.5 innings per start.

Anytime you have a player who is a valuable asset, there is a “danger” that his value will go down and for pitchers even a likelihood of it. But it’s trifling to act like that’s bad news; it’s more like a good problem to have.

It’s almost as if you want him to pitch worse, so you can have more upside to hope for.

by Jay on Feb 3, 2012 12:39 PM EST up reply actions  

It’s more like, “I’d consider selling high in exchange for buying low on Morales, who has a higher ceiling.”

Please don’t marginalize my view as sentiment.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 4, 2012 1:22 AM EST up reply actions  

What choice do I have, when I can’t make logical sense of them? You’re devaluing a guy based on having reached his (probable) ceiling.

If you want to make the case that we should sell high on him, I’m open to that. But that has to be accompanied by a pessimistic but sober evaluation of his projected value.

There is nothing evidently wrong with Masterson. Even if you were confident that he would regress all the way back to his 2010 level, trading him for Morales would still be completely indefensible.

by Jay on Feb 4, 2012 2:51 PM EST up reply actions  

“Indefensible”? Come on dude. He finished top 5 in his only full, healthy season and he’s only 29 years old.

Even if you disagree, do you really believe it’s “indefensible”?

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 4, 2012 11:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Injuries aren’t a good thing. You don’t get to say it was his only full season and act like that’s a positive indicator.

I like ex-Phillies prospects.

by Gradyforpresident on Feb 5, 2012 1:38 AM EST up reply actions  

But up above, you claim that YOU don’t think he was Top 5, only the voters did. So which is it?

Anyway, yes. I’m saying not only that I don’t agree, but that I couldn’t even make the argument for it.

It is indefensible. It would be mocked by literally every commentator.

by Jay on Feb 5, 2012 2:01 AM EST up reply actions  

I would rarely trade away the starting pitching that Masterson gives the club.

If I were a GM, you could probably find a dead cat under all of the starting pitching I was hoarding.

by emd2k3 on Feb 7, 2012 11:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Masterson is coming off a 4.1 WAR season, better than Morales’ peak of 3.6 oWAR in 2009. Kendrys was on pace for another 3.6 when he hurt himself on May 29, 2010. He’s yet to play since then, though he’s presumably in the best shape of his life and raring to go.

Morales top six age comps (hey, there’s Reggie Jefferson! Fred Whitfield! Garko!!) went on to compile 8 oWAR over their next three seasons, which is how long the Indians control Masterson. Masterson’s top six comps put up 19.3 WAR in their next three seasons.

Justin for Kendrys is a no-go, pending better arguments for it.

by YoDaddyWags on Feb 2, 2012 9:29 AM EST up reply actions  

I don’t think you’ve actually looked at Masterson’s 2011.

by gte619n on Feb 2, 2012 11:31 AM EST up reply actions  

I know his tendencies quite well. If he can repeat last years numbers, I’ll be a believer.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 2, 2012 4:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Compared to 2010, he really didn’t get worlds better against lefties: 110 sOPS+ vs. 101; he became devastating against righties: 94 vs 64. So, when you look at it, 2008’s poor numbers against lefties seem like the outlier.

Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.

by USSChoo on Feb 2, 2012 4:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Judging by his K:BB, he improved drastically vs lefties in my eyes. He surrendered less HRs in more ABs too.

I’m guessing you mean 2009 OPS against as an outlier, which is fair. The jump in his K:BB is what’s really encouraging for me. If he threw a better change or added a splitter, I’d be more optimistic about his upside. I’ve been on your side of the argument before. It’s more about how high on Morales I am, than being low on Masterson.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 2, 2012 5:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, I did mean 2009, thank you. But I think you’re pointing to his increased production against lefties, not the first sign of production. 2010 showed he could get them out, 2011 showed he could do by missing their bats.

So the question: Is a good (not great) 1B worth a front-end starter? I feel like good 1B are easier to find than very good, power starters.

Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.

by USSChoo on Feb 2, 2012 5:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Who is going to pitch if we trade Masterson?

by Bogalusa Bomber on Feb 5, 2012 4:54 AM EST up reply actions  

In fairness both to Masterson and you, he faced 513 lefties in 2011. It’s not a conclusive sample size, but it isn’t tiny either.

This should not be confused with a lefty batter, who may only face lefty pitchers 150 or so times in a season. Thus, lefty batter splits for a single season are far less statistically significant than a starting pitcher’s versus-lefty-batter splits for a single season.

by Jay on Feb 2, 2012 7:12 PM EST up reply actions  

The first sentence of the last paragraph says everything you need to know about Matt Laporta

by cheech99 on Jan 31, 2012 8:50 PM EST reply actions  

Here is a question I have (big hypothetical, yes): If LaPorta shows major progress at 1B early in the season but the Indians aren’t contending like expected, does Antonetti try to flip him a la Broussard or does he take his progress as genuine and permanent?

Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.

by USSChoo on Feb 1, 2012 12:12 AM EST reply actions  

If the moon was really made of cheese, should we harvest it?

by hans on Feb 1, 2012 12:42 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

We know the French will never make it that far, so I say it’s safe where it is.

Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.

by USSChoo on Feb 1, 2012 9:13 AM EST up reply actions  

I’d say we keep him under those circumstances. He will just be entering his arb years after this season and, if he’s hitting well, then let him hit here for a couple more years.

by MTF on Feb 1, 2012 6:42 AM EST up reply actions  

Well, I guess then maybe that is the question. If he puts in a half year’s worth of good numbers, do we think it will be sustainable? I suppose it matters how he goes about doing it.

Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.

by USSChoo on Feb 1, 2012 9:12 AM EST up reply actions  

Given the absence of Ed Wade and Bill Bavasi among the ranks of MLB GMs, I’m gonna say no.

by Jay on Feb 1, 2012 2:47 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

if we fall short it will likely be because we’ve not drafted, traded for, or developed an impact corner bat. laporta’s ineptitude is crippling.

even if he were mediocre but with some signs of an 825 ops year, we’d be a million times better off. but he’s just bad.

I like ex-Phillies prospects.

by Gradyforpresident on Feb 1, 2012 1:27 AM EST reply actions  

Cantlzer looks like Casey Blake 2.0… ugh!!!

Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic. - Robert S. Wieder

by jerseywahoo on Feb 1, 2012 2:43 AM EST reply actions  

So he’s, “The guy who got netted the Indians Carlos Santana 2.0”. Sweet!

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 1, 2012 4:32 AM EST up reply actions  

How the hell did the Indians swing that? An impact, very highly ranked catching prospect for 2 years of an average 3rd baseman?

by tr1betime on Feb 1, 2012 8:32 AM EST up reply actions  

It wasn’t even 2 years of Blake, it was 2.5 months if I am not mistaken.

by Roger Dorn on Feb 1, 2012 9:02 AM EST up reply actions  

Right. He was signed for 2008 only when the Indians traded him, the Dodgers chose to extend him. We paid his entire $6.1m contract that year for it to work. Worth it.

Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.

by USSChoo on Feb 1, 2012 9:18 AM EST up reply actions  

Thank the Colletti’s I suppose for their contentious divorce.

by Roger Dorn on Feb 1, 2012 12:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Colleti was the GM. The McCourts pwned the team.

That is not a typo.

by emd2k3 on Feb 1, 2012 12:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Yea, sorry about that.

by Roger Dorn on Feb 1, 2012 12:37 PM EST up reply actions  

At first I thought this said the McCourts pawned the team.

"Lotta heart in Cleveland." - Ian Hunter

by Denver Tribe Fan on Feb 2, 2012 1:38 AM EST up reply actions  

Well, they kind of did. In a backwards way.

by emd2k3 on Feb 3, 2012 3:21 PM EST up reply actions  

we also got that guy who couldn’t spell Malone right.

by stuart dean on Feb 1, 2012 2:04 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

Couldn’t spell “Jon” right either. Very strange.

by Jay on Feb 1, 2012 2:51 PM EST up reply actions  

I’m very surprised you think they’d keep LaPorta over Duncan in your initial scenario. I don’t see much of any reason to do that—Duncan was better last year, is more versatile defensively, and has an option. What’s it going to hurt to send LaPorta down?

by afh4 on Feb 1, 2012 10:56 AM EST up reply actions  

As I was writing/thinking aloud, I became less sure of that. I think it might be closer to a real toss-up and depend on how they perform and look during the spring. My nod to LaPorta is basically a nod to having at least one actual first baseman on the roster, and LaPorta’s 200 starts at that position for Cleveland far exceed his competition. But that is, admittedly, a pretty weak argument. I suppose this is just as likely:

RF: Choo
CF: Sizemore
LF: Brantley
4OF: Cunningham
1B: Duncan
2B: Kipnis
SS: Cabrera
3B: Chisenhall
C: Santana
BC: Marson
DH: Hafner
UI: Hannahan
U: Donald

by APV on Feb 1, 2012 11:01 AM EST up reply actions  

The starting lineup on that squad, listed by OPS+ 2009-2011 average (where applicable):

Choo, RF: 134
Kipnis, 2B: 131*
Santana, C: 128*
Hafner, DH: 126
Duncan, 1B: 110
Cabrera, SS: 110
Sizemore, CF: 98
Chisenhall, 3B: 93*
Brantley, LF: 88

A Sizemore bounceback and development from Brantley and Chisenhall, and that doesn’t look too bad.

by APV on Feb 1, 2012 11:19 AM EST up reply actions  

Adding the defensive ratings for the primary positions you have them listed at, according to the recent ZIPS projection
Choo, RF: AV
Kipnis, 2B: AV
Santana, C: FR (catcher’s ratings are arm only)
Duncan, 1B: FR
Cabrera, SS: FR
Sizemore, CF: AV
Chisenhall, 3B: VG
Brantley, LF: VG

On a EX>VG>AV>FR>PO scale.

Chisenhall’s rating was a surprise to me but the overall infield defense doesn’t look so good by this projection.

Hannahan gets an EX for 3B, AV for 1B. Cunningham is AV/PO/FR for LF, CF, and RF respectively. Donald is AV at 2B and 3B, FR at SS.

by InfiniteMonkeyTypists on Feb 1, 2012 12:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Seems about right. There is not a lot of defensive upside to the current Tribe roster.

by APV on Feb 1, 2012 12:38 PM EST up reply actions  

I think Kipnis has a chance to become a real good second baseman.

Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile

by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Feb 1, 2012 6:04 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t think we’ll be disappointed with his defense, but I could definitely see him have a stretch of games like Phelps went through last year.

by callmrplow on Feb 2, 2012 9:38 AM EST up reply actions  

I just hope I don’t have to see those games in person in a visiting stadium again, nervously explaining to the home team’s fan next to me that the defense is not usually that bad.

by ameliorate on Feb 2, 2012 9:46 AM EST up reply actions  

I meant long-term, not necessarily in April. He just seemed to be very athletic in the field when I saw him. He’s still learning to play, but I think he has the ability.

Though I look right at home, I still feel like an exile

by Manhattan Tribe Fan on Feb 2, 2012 5:43 PM EST up reply actions  

I know Choo can get a little loopy in the field, but I thought the arm would push him into VG territory.

Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.

by USSChoo on Feb 1, 2012 12:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Arm is actually separate, I just don’t list it in the basic report (I have his arm as VG still, IIRC).

--
Dan Szymborski
Dan's Stuff is on: BTF, ESPN, Twitter

by D.Szymborski on Feb 1, 2012 1:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Interesting. Thank you.

Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.

by USSChoo on Feb 1, 2012 1:56 PM EST up reply actions  

What do the * denote?

Len Barker Perfect Game Attendee

by PortlandVinny on Feb 1, 2012 12:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Just figured it out, not comprehensive of 2009-2011.

Len Barker Perfect Game Attendee

by PortlandVinny on Feb 1, 2012 12:41 PM EST up reply actions  

I guess I don’t see the defensive nativeness as any kind of argument. Duncan’s extensive experience at 1B in the minor seems as viable as LaPorta’s major league experience.

by afh4 on Feb 1, 2012 11:56 AM EST up reply actions  

you are probably right

by APV on Feb 1, 2012 11:57 AM EST up reply actions  

I wrote this in another thread, but I think Donald is assured a 25 man spot as the UT. It’s not really close in terms of defensive ability and ML experience and performance.

And given that Hannahan is the superlative defensive corner IF (the only one), to me it seems the competition boils down to 1B and 4th OF, where you have a real performance based competition in ST.

Given that Cunningham has no options left, and was acquired specifically for the role, he definitely has the leg up for the 4th OF spot. And for the most topical point, you’re right – LaPorta was and is the heir apparent at 1B, a good ST will seal it for the opening day roster. Not much point sending him down to Columbus if there’s not a clear upgrade. He needs ML at bats, not AAA ones.

But for both those spots, I think if someone in the mix has a real good ST, they could take it.

Btw, does Duncan have an option left? That would enter into it as well.

by mcrose on Feb 1, 2012 8:19 PM EST up reply actions  

No options for Duncan

by APV on Feb 1, 2012 8:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Thanks. Seems to be the one pertinent bit of info not readily available on the interwebs.

by mcrose on Feb 1, 2012 9:31 PM EST up reply actions  

When in doubt, check out Tony’s site. Here is his most recent update to the options chart.

by APV on Feb 1, 2012 9:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Gotta mention: Russ not Ross.

Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.

by USSChoo on Feb 1, 2012 11:53 AM EST reply actions  

you are definitely right

by APV on Feb 1, 2012 11:57 AM EST up reply actions  

I always feel weird saying anything about typos, but I knew you’d want that fixed.

Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.

by USSChoo on Feb 1, 2012 12:04 PM EST up reply actions  

I have significant personal animosity towards the name, “Ross.” You are correct that I would want that fixed.

by APV on Feb 1, 2012 12:06 PM EST up reply actions  

I’m a little disappointed he doesn’t go by Russell, we need a new Russell.

Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.

by USSChoo on Feb 1, 2012 12:11 PM EST up reply actions  

This is like that Friends episode from an early season when Rachel dates “Russ,” whom is basically a clone of Ross.

Also, did I use whom right?

I like ex-Phillies prospects.

by Gradyforpresident on Feb 1, 2012 2:16 PM EST up reply actions  

damn

I like ex-Phillies prospects.

by Gradyforpresident on Feb 1, 2012 9:27 PM EST up reply actions  

The “he/they” “him/them” substitution trick is a good way to go. Rethink your sentence: “Rachel dates Russ. He is basically a clone of Ross” tells you to use ‘who.’

If you wrote “Rachel dated many men, one of whom was a clone of Ross” the mental rewrite would be “One of them was a clone of Ross”, which gives you the heads-up for ‘whom.’ Think “M=whom.”

If the entire phrase in question is an object of the preposition, punch the nearest grammarian. And use ‘who.’

by YoDaddyWags on Feb 2, 2012 7:20 AM EST up reply actions  

Seems like the title of this piece should be “Miss, Matt, Miss”.

by CaptainPenny on Feb 2, 2012 12:19 AM EST reply actions  

I just had a legit OMGOL.

Totally off-topic, I just had to share.

by Jay on Feb 2, 2012 1:45 AM EST reply actions  

Did you say “OMG,” or “Oh My God” but thought “OMG”?

I like ex-Phillies prospects.

by Gradyforpresident on Feb 2, 2012 2:26 AM EST up reply actions  

I said “Oh My God” out loud, with nobody in the room.

by Jay on Feb 2, 2012 7:13 PM EST up reply actions  

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