League Makeup Part IV: Draft Picks

Another step in looking into the League Makeup and how the Tribe compares to the league overall.

Part IV: Draft Picks

In Part I of the league discussion we did a review of when players are being used. And in Part II we discussed how players are signed, whether via the draft, amateur free agent (aFA) or others. In Part III, we dove a bit deeper into the amateur free agents, defining what parts of the globe they were coming from. Now we reach the one area that probably has the most interest, the amateur draft.

Now remember that for this data analysis, when identified as a drafted player, they did not necessarily have to come up through that organization. If that player is traded to another organization, he is still qualified as a draftee because that is how they were originally signed.

From Part II, the draft picks are approximately 75% of the all the players. This analysis will attempt to identify the rounds where the draftees are coming from. Going into this, my best guess that the majority of players would come from Rounds 1 through 5 and decreasingly significantly as the rounds neared 50 and above.

One note about the draft, I have decided to split them up into five areas: Round 1, Rounds 2 through 5, Rounds 6 through 15, Rounds 16 through 25, and Rounds 25 and higher. Before I dive into the data, let’s do a little history about the draft. The first year the amateur draft started was 1967. Originally there were three separate drafts. The main draft was the June draft for high school graduates and college seniors. The second draft involved high school seniors and college seniors that graduated in December, and this draft was held in January. The January draft lasted until 1986. The third draft was an August draft for players that played in amateur summer leagues, but only occurred in 1967 and 1968.

Also, there are compensatory picks, with the majority of them being after the first round and these players are considered first round draft picks. The number of rounds has also changed over the years. Teams were able to draft as many players as they wanted for a few seasons. The Astros drafted 100 players one season. But for the past 10 years or so, the number of players drafted was capped at 50, and this year, that number dropped to 40.

So let’s start with all drafted players who appeared in a game each season.

Fig 1.1 - All Players (Core + Role + Backup + Coffee) and (Hitters + Pitchers):

Fig11_medium

via i1254.photobucket.com

The Round 1 draft picks hold steadily at around 25% throughout the cycle. The 16-25 and 26+ sets hold fairly steady as well. The recent rise of the 2-5 has come at the expense of the 6-15 set. But surprisingly enough, each has held a slight edge over the Round 1 picks throughout the cycle save the 6-15 set in 2011. Median values over the 12 year cycle: Round 1: 24.15%; 2-5: 27.66%; 6-15: 26.29%; 16-25: 12.14%; 26+: 9.42%.

As expected, Tribe players who were formerly drafted had a bit more fluctuation. Round 1 picks had a high of 36.36% in 2001 but dipped below 20% from 2004 to 2007. The Tribe has relied a bit more heavily on the 2-5 set. Median values over the 12 year cycle: Median values over the 12 year cycle: Round 1: 22.93%; 2-5: 37.56%; 6-15: 25.18%; 16-25: 7.75%; 26+: 9.69%.

Now let’s see if splitting up the hitters and pitchers changes anything.

Fig 1.2 - All Hitters (Core + Role + Backup + Coffee) Fig12_medium

via i1254.photobucket.com

The hitters are even more tightly bunched during the first half of the chart. But as with the total player graph, the 6-15 set takes a late tumble. Also, many more 2-5 picks making a contribution late in the chart.. Median values over the 12 year cycle: Median values over the 12 year cycle: Round 1: 26.02%; 2-5: 27.39%; 6-15: 25.68%; 16-25: 11.64%; 26+: 8.97%.

The Tribe hitters were concentrated mostly on the 2-5 and 6-15 sets. In 2004 there wasn’t even a Round 1 pick on the roster. There was an increase in Round 1 picks in 2010 and 2011 though. Median values over the 12 year cycle: Round 1: 13.40%; 2-5: 40.63%; 6-15: 31.25%; 16-25: 2.78%; 26+: 8.61%.

Fig 1.3 - All Pitchers (Core + Role + Backup + Coffee) Fig13_medium

via i1254.photobucket.com

This graph surprised me the most as I thought pitchers that are Round 1 draft picks are given more leeway and this would show up here. But this graph shows a higher reliance on the 2-5 and 6-15 sets. But amazingly enough, this graph is very stable as well. Median values over the 12 year cycle: Round 1: 22.58%; 2-5: 27.64%; 6-15: 26.72%; 16-25: 12.96%; 26+: 9.93%.

The Tribe pitchers actually follow my theory much more closely. Mostly Round 1 and 2-5 sets. One oddball number though was the 22.73% number for the 26+ set in 2004. Median values over the 12 year cycle: Round 1: 28.57%; 2-5: 33.86%; 6-15: 17.43%; 16-25: 11.52%; 26+: 11.04%.

As before, we’ll split up the groups into Core, Role, Backup and Coffee players. Core players got 500 or more plate appearances, made 25 or more starts or pitched 60 innings or more in relief. Role players got 300-499 plate appearances, made 15-24 starts or pitched 30-59.2 innings in relief. Backup players got 100-299 plate appearances, made 5-14 starts or pitched 15-29.2 innings in relief. And Coffee players got less than 100 plate appearances, made less than 5 starts or pitched less than 15 innings in relief. For combination pitchers (starts and relief appearances) I subtracted 6 innings pitched per start from the total innings and if the resultant number bumped them another grade, I moved them up.

Fig 2.1 - All Core Players (Hitters + Pitchers) Fig21_medium

via i1254.photobucket.com

Now this is more like what I expected to see. The Round 1 picks lead the category, jumping from around 25% up to 35% with the groups descending in order, with a recent rise in the 2-5 set. Median values over the 12 year cycle: Round 1: 32.62%; 2-5: 26.83%; 6-15: 23.04%; 16-25: 10.50%; 26+: 7.87%.

The Tribe Core players are a mish mash from year to year, with a higher reliance on the 2-5 set. In fact in 2008 and 2009, all core hitters (4 and 2 respectively) were from the 2-5 set. Median values over the 12 year cycle: Round 1: 25.00%; 2-5: 38.75%; 6-15: 12.50%; 16-25: 0.00%; 26+: 12.92%.

Fig 2.2 - All Core Hitters

Fig22_medium

via i1254.photobucket.com

Another graph that shows how important the Round 1 and 2-5 sets are, with those two groupings making up around 65-70% of all core players. Median values over the 12 year cycle: Round 1: 39.78%; 2-5: 24.79%; 6-15: 19.34%; 16-25: 11.10%; 26+: 4.84%.

With the Tribe Core parsed down even further, they track the main graph fairly closer, but the sample size is again very small. There was a high of 7 core hitters in 2005 and no core hitters in 2010 or 2011. Median values over the 12 year cycle: Round 1: 0.00%; 2-5: 29.77%; 6-15: 25.00%; 16-25: 0.00%; 26+: 0.00%.

Fig 2.3 - All Core Pitchers

Fig23_medium

via i1254.photobucket.com

Again, this is the graph that is not quite what I expected. There is a much lower number of Round 1 picks than I would have thought. Median values over the 12 year cycle: Round 1: 26.69%; 2-5: 28.12%; 6-15: 26.28%; 16-25: 11.23%; 26+: 9.15%.

The Tribe Core pitchers match more to my expectations with a slightly higher sample size than the hitters. Interesting to note that the 26+ set is usually higher than the 6-15 and 16-25 sets though. Median values over the 12 year cycle: Round 1: 35.42%; 2-5: 38.75%; 6-15: 0.00%; 16-25: 0.00%; 26+: 14.59%.

Fig 3.1 - All Role Players (Hitters + Pitchers) Fig31_medium

via i1254.photobucket.com

The drafted Role players rely more on the 2-5 and 6-15 sets than the Round 1 players with the 16-25 and 26+ holding close to the overall numbers. Median values over the 12 year cycle: Round 1: 23.75%; 2-5: 25.81%; 6-15: 26.94%; 16-25: 13.36%; 26+: 8.85%.

The drafted Tribe Role players had more fluctuation as usual due to the smaller sample size, but rarely used a 16-25 or 26+ player, a total of 7 each over the 12 years. Median values over the 12 year cycle: Round 1: 25.00%; 2-5: 30.95%; 6-15: 31.67%; 16-25: 0.00%; 26+: 0.00%.

Fig 3.2 - All Role Hitters

Fig32_medium

via i1254.photobucket.com

The drafted Role hitters had a slightly higher reliance on the Round 1 set, but the 26+ set has steadily decreased, with a low of 1/14% in 2010. Median values over the 12 year cycle: Round 1: 23.75%; 2-5: 25.81%; 6-15: 26.94%; 16-25: 13.36%; 26+: 8.85%.

The Tribe Role hitters were mostly from the 2-5 and 6-15 sets with only one player from the 16-25 set in 2000 during the cycle. Median values over the 12 year cycle: Round 1: 0.00%; 2-5: 29.17%; 6-15: 25.00%; 16-25: 0.00%; 26+: 0.00%.

Fig 3.3 - All Role Pitchers

Fig33_medium

via i1254.photobucket.com

The drafted Role pitchers show a dip of the Round 1 guys below 20% for the first time. Also, there is a stronger showing by the 26+ set, passing the 16-25 set twice in 2006 and 2011. Median values over the 12 year cycle: Round 1: 23.75%; 2-5: 25.81%; 6-15: 26.94%; 16-25: 13.36%; 26+: 8.85%.

The Tribe Role pitchers lean on the Round 1 picks more than the league. Median values over the 12 year cycle: Round 1: 36.67%; 2-5: 19.45%; 6-15: 13.89%; 16-25: 5.56%; 26+: 0.00%.

Fig 4.1 - All Backup Players (Hitters + Pitchers) Fig41_medium

via i1254.photobucket.com

The drafted Backup players had the 6-15 set lead for the first four seasons, and both the 16-25 and 26+ hover above the 10% line for most of the timeframe. Median values over the 12 year cycle: Round 1: 23.83%; 2-5: 28.55%; 6-15: 28.54%; 16-25: 11.84%; 26+: 9.02%.

The drafted Tribe Backup players tend to lean on the 2-5 set the most, with very few 16-25 players. Median values over the 12 year cycle: Round 1: 23.61%; 2-5: 35.42%; 6-15: 23.61%; 16-25: 0.00%; 26+: 3.14%.

Fig 4.2 - All Backup Hitters

Fig42_medium

via i1254.photobucket.com

The drafted Backup hitters had two of the highest totals yet for the 2-5 set in 2007 and 2010, with the 26+ set almost passing the Round 1 set in 2005. Median values over the 12 year cycle: Round 1: 21.90%; 2-5: 28.99%; 6-15: 29.57%; 16-25: 9.84%; 26+: 9.88%.

The Tribe Backup hitters again are mostly from the 2-5 and 6-15 sets. Median values over the 12 year cycle: Round 1: 0.00%; 2-5: 29.17%; 6-15: 29.17%; 16-25: 0.00%; 26+: 0.00%.

Fig 4.3 - All Backup Pitchers

Fig43_medium

via i1254.photobucket.com

What a jumbled mess. The top three sets continue to bounce around. But the Round 1 set has its first dip below 15% in 2009. Median values over the 12 year cycle: Round 1: 25.27%; 2-5: 28.45%; 6-15: 24.72%; 16-25: 13.83%; 26+: 7.54%.

The Tribe Backup pitchers rely upon the Round 1 set the most heavily but did have 100$% peaks for the 2-5 set in 2003 and 16-25 set in 2005. Median values over the 12 year cycle: Round 1: 38.75%; 2-5: 25.00%; 6-15: 13.40%; 16-25: 0.00%; 26+: 0.00%.

Fig 5.1 - All Coffee Players (Hitters + Pitchers) Fig51_medium

via i1254.photobucket.com

And not surprisingly, the drafted Coffee players show the lowest reliance on the Round 1 players with the Round 1 the smallest in 2000 and almost again in 2011. Median values over the 12 year cycle: Round 1: 16.17%; 2-5: 29.03%; 6-15: 28.49%; 16-25: 13.92%; 26+: 11.16%.

The drafted Tribe Coffee are dominated by the 2-5 set. Median values over the 12 year cycle: Round 1: 14.38%; 2-5: 35.83%; 6-15: 29.71%; 16-25: 8.34%; 26+: 11.44%.

Fig 5.2 - All Coffee Hitters

Fig52_medium

via i1254.photobucket.com

The drafted Coffee hitters mirrored the overall Coffee players fairly closely. Median values over the 12 year cycle: Round 1: 16.31%; 2-5: 31.40%; 6-15: 27.00%; 16-25: 14.55%; 26+: 10.32%.

The Tribe Coffee hitters leaned more heavily on the 2-5 and 6-15 sets and very few round 1 players. Median values over the 12 year cycle: Round 1: 7.15%; 2-5: 41.43%; 6-15: 30.95%; 16-25: 0.00%; 26+: 7.15%.

Fig 5.3 - All Coffee Pitchers

Fig53_medium

via i1254.photobucket.com

The drafted Coffee pitchers have the highest reliance of the 6-15 set yet. Median values over the 12 year cycle: Round 1: 15.67%; 2-5: 26.98%; 6-15: 30.41%; 16-25: 13.43%; 26+: 12.47%.

The Tribe Coffee pitchers have median values for each set, but the 2-5 set has the highest domination yet at 50%. Median values over the 12 year cycle: Round 1: 19.09%; 2-5: 50.00%; 6-15: 17.15%; 16-25: 10.80%; 26+: 5.00%.

Summary

I always believed that the bulk of the major leaguers were from the first fifteen rounds with a smattering of the later rounds, but the data here does disprove that somewhat. The 16+ round players make up about 20% of the league and is about the same for the core players. The core players are dominated by the first round players, which in itself is not that surprising. The first round draft picks are highly regarded and typically get more than one or two chances to prove themselves and make a career of it. Also, there are many more first round picks due to the supplemental drafts and the signing rate is fairly high for that round as well.

However, my original opinion was that there would more first round pitchers as on the surface it seems there are more first round picks devoted to pitchers. But after a second glance, pitchers typically get hurt a lot more, and therefore the attrition rate will bring that number down to where it is.

The Tribe numbers, while interesting, do not accurately reflect how the team is truly made up. This would need to be done in a separate computation (which could occur in a later post if there is enough demand). But based on the evidence of the players we have used, the first round picks (ours or others) are used heavily, but the core players lean more heavily to the 2-5 set.

Coming in Part V, we will delve into which franchises are identifying the talent, at least initially, in the majors.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Let's Go Tribe

You must be a member of Let's Go Tribe to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Let's Go Tribe. You should read them.

Join Let's Go Tribe

You must be a member of Let's Go Tribe to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Let's Go Tribe. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker