Eric's 2012 Cleveland Indians Projections...

by AmbienTribe8 on Feb 11, 2012 3:52 PM EST

I've been getting ready for the 2012 fantasy baseball season the past two weeks; and of course the first and most detailed team that I am projecting will be the Cleveland Indians. Last year I projected some players almost perfectly (Hafner, LaPorta, Santana, Brantley, both Perez's) and missed big on others (had Choo penciled in for 22 bombs and Asdrubal for 7. 450 plate appearances by Grady and missed Fausto's ERA by over a run.) Here are my 2012 projections that we could all be laughing at eight months time....

A few notes:

I have Hannahan & Chiz sharing time at around a 65/35 split. I simply think that Hannahan's defense is too valuable to not being playing on a semi-regular basis. I also like Hannahan's approach at the plate. I think he's a solid player.
I tried to go conservative but I do think this "could" be a bounce back season six years in the making for Travis Hafner. If he plays the way he has the previous five seasons I seriously doubt his option will be picked up in 2013 (see Grady Sizemore from last year.) If "Pronk" does fail to deliver a decent season this year - he could be done in the majors. Vladimir Guerrero and Johnny Damon - two probable future Hall of Famers - and to a lesser extent ~~Chris Gimenez~~ Raul Ibanez and Hideki Matsui, currently can't find work and they have a better track record than Pronk. The market for a DH isn't what it was even just a few years ago - more teams are using it as a revolting door to give guys a day off, using it as a platoon, ect. Travis Hafner dosen't peg me as the type of guy to play for the money; and I don't think that he hasn't been giving 100% the past five years, but I have to imagine the thought of this possibly being his last year in the majors - or at least last year as a starter (I guess he could find a Jim Thome role somewhere) isn't in the back of his mind somewhere.
Speaking of Pronk, I have him and Grady penciled in for one DL stint a piece, because frankly it seems silly not to predict that.
I have "Fausto Carmona" coming back sometime around the all-star break. He was the hardest to predict. I also put my rose colored glasses on and am imagining that this entire false identity thing being lifted from his shoulders might make him a bit more relaxed and maybe we'll see more of the "good" Fausto than the "bad."
No projections on guys that I think will have less than 150 AB or 25 IP. Too small of a sample to really make a prediction. Remember David Huff was actually Cliff Lee for about 25 innings last year and Orlando Cabrera was a .300 hitting RBI machine for a few weeks.

Onto the Predictions...

Starters:

Asdrubal Cabrera

POS: SS

H/AB: 170/592

R: 92

2B: 35

HR: 17

RBI: 84

BB: 48

SB: 18

BA: .287

OBP: .344

SLG: .453

OPS: .797

Carlos Santana

POS: C, 1B

H/AB: 147/565

R: 87

2B: 37

HR: 31

RBI: 97

BB: 103

SB: 4

BA: .260

OBP: .374

SLG: .497

OPS: .871

Shin-Soo Choo

POS: RF

H/AB:165/572

R: 83

2B: 34

HR: 20

RBI: 86

BB: 78

SB: 22

BA: .288

OBP: .374

SLG: .472

OPS: .846

Jason Kipnis

POS: 2B

H/AB:142/512

R: 78

2B: 32

HR: 18

RBI: 72

BB: 47

SB: 10

BA: .277

OBP: .341

SLG: .465

OPS: ..806

Michael Brantley

POS: LF, CF

H/AB:137/503

R: 70

2B: 25

HR: 8

RBI: 58

BB: 41

SB: 18

BA: .272

OBP: .333

SLG: .395

OPS: .728

Casey Kotchman:

POS: 1B

H/AB: 131/472

R: 50

2B: 28

HR: 9

RBI: 53

BB: 51

SB: 1

BA: .278

OBP: .352

SLG: .407

OPS: .759

Lonnie Chisenhall

POS: 3B

H/AB: 117/439

R: 58

2B: 28

HR: 14

RBI: 62

BB: 31

SB: 3

BA: .267

OBP: .318

SLG: .435

OPS: .753

Grady Sizemore

POS: CF, DH

H/AB: 104/437

R: 63

2B: 32

HR: 21

RBI: 61

BB: 38

SB: 4

BA: .237

OBP: .305

SLG: .459

OPS: .765

Travis Hafner

POS: DH

H/AB:116/412

R: 49

2B: 22

HR: 16

RBI: 62

BB: 50

SB: 0

BA: .281

OBP: .365

SLG: .452

OPS: .816

Bench:

Jack Hannahan, 3B/1B: 295 AB, 76 H, 37 R, 6 HR, 37 RBI, .258/.336/.389/.726

Jason Donald, Util: 237 AB, 68 H, 32 R, 2 HR, 24 RBI, .287/.357/.388/.745

Shelly Duncan, 1B/LF: 225 AB, 60 H, 29 R, 12 HR, 38 RBI, .267/.329/.480/.809

Lou Marson, C: 212 AB, 53 H, 25 R, 2 HR, 21 RBI, .250/.318/.344/.662

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Rotation:

Ubaldo Jimenez

IP: 208

W/L: 15-11

ER: 75

SO/BB: 192-84

HR: 14

OAV: .237

ERA: 3.61

WHIP:1.28

Justin Masterson

IP: 204

W/L: 14-10

ER: 76

SO/BB: 162-68

HR: 12

OAV: .258

ERA: 3.73

WHIP:1.31

Josh Tomlin

IP: 184

W/L: 11-9

ER: 82

SO/BB: 101/31

HR: 24

OAV: .254

ERA: 4.44

WHIP: 1.21

Derek Lowe

IP: 192

W/L: 10-12

ER: 87

SO/BB: 131-67

HR: 16

OAV: .278

ERA: 4.52

WHIP: 1.41

Kevin Slowey

IP: 131

W/L: 6-7

ER: 60

SO/BB: 108-28

HR: 20

OAV: .282

ERA: 4.58

WHIP: 1.37

Fausto Carmona:

IP: 107

W/L: 8-5

ER: 44

SO/BB: 60-35

HR: 11

OAV: .267

ERA: 4.12

WHIP: 1.34

Bullpen Mafia:

Chris Perez, CL: 65 IP, 38 SV, 49-27 K/BB, .212 OBA, 1.16 WHIP, 3.47 ERA

Rafael Perez, LHS: 63 IP, 0 SV, 36-21 K/BB, .258 OBA, 1.28 WHIP, 3.51 ERA

Tony Sipp, LSU: 61 IP, 2 SV, 61-30 K/BB, .207 OBA, 1.21 WHIP, 3.44 ERA

Vinnie Pestano, RSU: 61 IP, 6 SV, 78-26 K/BB, .195 OBA, 1.11 WHIP, 2.96 ERA

Joe Smith, RHS: 60 IP, 0 SV, 48-23 K/BB, .212 OBA, 1.23 WHIP, 3.18 ERA

Dan Wheeler, Long: 58 IP, 0 SV, 48-14 K/BB, .232 OBA, 1.14 WHIP, 3.81 ERA

Robinson Tejada, Mop: 52 IP, 0 SV, 45-34 K/BB, .254 OBA, 1.33 WHIP, 3.95 ERA

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AL Central Standings:

1. Cleveland Indians (89-73)

2. Detroit Tigers (88-74)

3. Chicago White Sox (80-82)

4. Kansas City Royals (78-84)

5. Minnesota Twins (71-91)

Cleveland Indians Team MVP:

1. Carlos Santana

2. Ubaldo Jimenez

3. Shin-Soo Choo

4. Justin Masterson

5. Asdrubal Cabrera

Opening Day Lineup:

Asdrubal, Kipnis, Choo, Santana, Pronk, Grady, Kotchman, Chisenhall, Brantley

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Comments

guys that i think will have a cup of coffee or two in the majors: Russ Canzler, Matt LaPorta, Jose Lopez, Fred Lewis, Luke Carlin, CC Lee, Nick Hagadone, Chris Ray, Frank Herrmann.

Christopher Colombus got more tail in 1492 than you get in a lifetime.

by AmbienTribe8 on Feb 11, 2012 11:52 PM EST reply actions

I’d be very happy to get all those numbers. especially the 89 wins.

by DixonCayne on Feb 12, 2012 5:19 PM EST reply actions

What is the basis for your projections?

by APV on Feb 12, 2012 7:18 PM EST reply actions

About 90% of my predictions are based on the date I have for what the individual players have done the past three seasons. The stats I looked at over the players past three seasons were 2B/100PA, HR/100PA, BB/100 PA, AVG+, OBP+, SLG+, OPS+, SB/SBA, Contact Rate, Hit Rate and Isolated Power. For pitchers I looked at IP/G, ERA+, WHIP+, OAV+, K/BB, K-BB/IP, HRA, FB Ratio and GB Ratio.

The other 10% is based off a few different variables. I look at what players have done prior to my three year research. For players like Grady & Hafner who were elite players not too long ago I give their projections a small boost because I feel its not entirely impossible they wont return to elite form. A recent example off the top of my head is I remember Jermaine Dye almost playing himself out of a career in Oakland before becoming an MVP candidate in Chicago. J.J. Hardy from last year would be another example – I don’t think Grady & Pronk are going to be turning out 30 home run seasons again but it’s far from impossible. I also looked at the consistency of the player. The more consistent a guy is the more confident I am in projecting a stronger season for him. The last variable is just my gut feeling. I don’t put a lot of stock into this but I still do listen to it a bit.

For runs and RBI’s it is as simple as where I think they player will spend the majority of the time in the lineup. At bats is me looking at injury history and how much PT I think they will get if they are healthy all season, i.e. I don’t expect Chisenhall to get 600 AB’s even if he never has as much as a cold this year because I value Hannahan.

Christopher Colombus got more tail in 1492 than you get in a lifetime.

by AmbienTribe8 on Feb 12, 2012 9:00 PM EST up reply actions

data* not date

Christopher Colombus got more tail in 1492 than you get in a lifetime.

by AmbienTribe8 on Feb 12, 2012 9:01 PM EST reply actions

Not a huge projections guy (there are many more able on this site to do that), but perhaps a slightly better formatting might have made this more readable.

by talonk on Feb 13, 2012 11:20 AM EST reply actions

Since these are basically guesses I’d say I’d like the result without regard to how you got there.

One guy on our team has a lot of money riding on this season. If Choo can turn in another 6 WAR season, Boras can get him something over $100 million. Look at what he did for lesser producers, like Werth and Crawford. If he turns in a season closer to last season, conversely, or even somethingin the middle, I’d bet he rates something closer to $50 million. He is going to be lots richer either way, but that $50 million (plus) differential is going to be a huge motivator.

by MTF on Feb 14, 2012 1:26 PM EST reply actions