Praising the Indians offseason
Sorry if this is self promotion, but whatever.
The Indians are not my favorite team-- that would belong to the Seattle Mariners (God, help me) but I wrote a piece on a few of the Indians offseason moves and how much I've liked them.
4 months ago
Keenan Williams
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Surprised you didn’t talk about the Dan Wheeler signing, but not a bad collection and recap of the offseason.
I saw that he signed after I wrote the piece, and decided not include him because he was a mid-30s reliever who isn't anything special and doesn't have any sexy pitches
by Keenan Williams on Feb 6, 2012 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
eh, not anything special maybe. But his last three seasons totals look pretty good, right?
115 ERA+, 1.011 WHIP, 3.94 SO/BB. The only glaring weakness is his HR/9 at 1.4.
All of this without “sexy pitches”.
Additionally, some people consider Fergie of the Black Eyed Peas as “sexy”.
by hans on Feb 6, 2012 3:56 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
I just don’t think averaging 0.2 WAR over the last three years is anything to get excited about
by Keenan Williams on Feb 6, 2012 10:24 PM EST up reply actions
whoops, meth face and man hands not sexy.
by emd2k3 on Feb 7, 2012 11:38 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Yeah me either, I was sort of joking..
by Keenan Williams on Feb 8, 2012 5:18 PM EST up reply actions
Hmmmm something tells me that WAR may not be the best measure for a relief pitcher. Oh here it is:
Guys that had a below a .2 WAR last season on the Cleveland Indians:
Chris Perez
Tony Sipp
Frank Herrmann
Players around the league who had a .2 WAR last season:
Jeremy Affeldt
Luis Ayala
Luis Nunez
Christian Martinez
Is it possible that using WAR, considering it is not a full on rate state, would be a poor choice in evaluating relievers who due to the specification of reliever roles and the general volatility of IPs that occur from season to season are subject to playing time issues out of their control?
Look, sorry I came off as a dick. I just don’t think Dan Wheeler is anything to get excited about. He is what he is; a mid 3-ERA relief pitcher. There isn’t much to write about that other than the Indians got him for pretty cheap. There just isn’t that much more you can expect from him.
by Keenan Williams on Feb 7, 2012 9:34 AM EST up reply actions
I get that he may not be something to write about, and in fact he may not even make the team, but Wheeler’s track record is one of a guy who has proven an ability to pitch at the major league level. They were able to sign him to a minor league deal, it is a move that is completely in-line with the Lowe and Slowey moves. In fact it is almost erie how similar all three of those pitchers are in regards to the ole’ “coming off of a down year” theme.
I don’t think you guys really disagree all that much, given the argument is centering on whether Wheeler is a legitimate 5th or 6th member of the bulllpen. His track record suggests he is, but the track record of 5th or 6th guys in the pen is that from year to year they fluctuate to the point of being essentially fungible.
Agreed on the whole with regards to the effect of year to year fluctuation. But given the surface fluctuation (looking at RA/9 or something), a look beyond that sees that Wheeler has been fairly consistent over his career. In his last 9 seasons, he’s had only twice xFIP’s that could be considered “bad for a reliever” (‘03 and ’08) otherwise he’s been solid to pretty decent.
I’d like to make a point, that I’m no huge supporter of Wheeler, and as you’ve said fluctuation on the whole with regards to relievers particularly middle to low end ones would have me consider his making or not making the team as something that can just as likely chalked up to randomoness as anything else. But the value in a player like him at a minor league deal is a net positive for the Tribe.
fangraphs and B-Ref give very different WAR numbers for relief pitchers
by APV on Feb 7, 2012 9:59 AM EST up reply actions
Impressed with this piece, man. It was a very good read and you’ve got a great knowledge of the Tribe.
Small gripe: I don’t see the team putting Grady in LF. Otherwise, pretty good write-ups.
Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.
Yeah that was more of how I think they should put together roster
Question; Do you guys believe he will return to 2005-2008 form anytime soon?
by Keenan Williams on Feb 6, 2012 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
We are sans-subject line over here, just an FYI. But as for Sizemore, we are all very spread out on what we think will happen. Some of us are more optimistic that others, myself among them, but I don’t think many, if any, expect a return to 2005-2008 form. An “almost but not quite” seems like best case scenario.
Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.
Thanks for the heads up. A lot of Mariner fans were pushing to sign him this offseason because he’s from Seattle. I hope he does well this year.
by Keenan Williams on Feb 6, 2012 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
He cited, to someone I cannot remember, that he felt a sense of obligation to resign with Cleveland because he felt like he owed them a little something. That said, if he returns to anywhere near All-Star levels, that sense of obligation probably vanishes. At which point, neither you nor us will be able to afford him.
Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.
Wasn’t SEA in on Fielder? I think they can afford Sizemore.
by JulioBernazard on Feb 7, 2012 1:38 PM EST up reply actions
Paying for Fielder and paying for Sizemore is a very different thing. Sure, they could afford the money, but likely not the risk.
Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.
As has been discussed here, I’d say there is/was a pretty high level of risk involved with the Fielder deal, or a similar offer if the Mariners were indeed involved in the negotiations.
Sizemore in that outfield? With those knees?
by emd2k3 on Feb 7, 2012 4:11 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
His 2011 performance suggested that his raw hitting ability hasn’t really changed much, but it also suggested that he may never stay healthy for an extended period again.
Sizemore’s “off year” stats are all the result of playing hurt. When healthy, he basically has always been a stud.
by Jay on Feb 6, 2012 6:23 PM EST up reply actions
His raw power appears to be there, but his other numbers are all over the place. Even the difference between ‘09 and ’11 varies when you look at his BB and K rates (-5.8%, 10.2% respectively), as well as his swinging rates (12.9% O-swing%, -11% contact%). I’ll grant that there are sample size issues, but it’s still 300 plate appearances that should hardly instill confidence that he can even match his ’09 numbers, assuming (fairly or not) that ’11 is a fair representation of the player he is now.
Anything you can tell us about Jose Lopez?
by ken from alexandria on Feb 6, 2012 11:33 AM EST reply actions
Oh god, Jose Lopez
Back when I didn’t know anything, I thought he was the best player on the Mariners in 2009 because, dingers!
Looking back on it, despite his 25 home runs he hit, he doesn’t have much power. Pretty much all of them were balls that just barely got out of the park. And looking at hittracker, that is an accurate statement.
His defense is a bit underrated on the other hand. Jose moved to third base in 2010 and actually did quite well there. And unless his defense at second base has improved over the last year, he is pretty bad there.
The worst thing about Jose Lopez is his at-bats. He goes out of the zone more than you can imagine, and even though he makes contact, its pretty weak contact.
I can see him making his way into a bench role out of Spring Training to give Chisenhall or Kipnis a day off, but don’t expect much. Something like .250/.290/.390 is probably reasonable.
Jose Lopez was one of my favorite players because he looked like he was always having fun, and I liked that.
Whoops. That was meant to be a reply for ‘ken from alexandria’
by Keenan Williams on Feb 6, 2012 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
Thank you. Our left-leaning lineup is going to be vulnerable to lefties unless we find some decent right-handed bats. Lopez could make himself useful if he could spell Hannahan or Chisenhall at 3b once in awhile. Plan B would probably be Andy LaRoche (gulp).
If Jason Donald is the back-up at 2b (and ss), we should be all right there.
by ken from alexandria on Feb 6, 2012 3:31 PM EST reply actions
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