Travis Hafner: Exit stage left
by APV on Feb 7, 2012 11:40 AM EST
in Analysis
Email
Print
"...it's better to burn out, 'cause rust never sleeps/ The king is gone, but he's not forgotten..."
Sometime during the 2008 season, mauichuck made the prediction that Travis Hafner would either rebound and become the type of monster hitter he had been from 2004-2006, or flame out altogether. Hafner, of course, was in the midst of his worst season as a pro. Just two years removed from putting up an OPS just shy of 1.100, Hafner hit .197/.305/.323 in 2008, struggling with the after effects of a still amorphous shoulder problem. Chuck's prediction seemed reasonable enough at the time, but has proven to be completely wrong. The past three seasons, in a somewhat strange way, Hafner has been remarkably consistent. Here are his batting lines from 2009-2011:
- 2009: 96 games, .272/.355/.470, .826 OPS, 16 HRs, 1.63 K/BB
- 2010: 118 games, .278/.374/.449, .824 OPS, 13 HRs, 1.84 K/BB
- 2011: 94 games, .280/.361/.449, .811 OPS, 13 HRs, 2.17 K/BB
Hafner has become a steady part-time player, with moderately above average power and discipline. Not bad, though not great for a one-time monster slugger with the team's largest contract. Given his skill set, there isn't really any reason to expect a massive and sudden decline from Hafner in the immediate future, and most projections for him (fangraphs has a few here) show him putting up similar numbers in 2012 as he has over the past three seasons.
What is sort of interesting is the final number I put up in the lines above. In his prime, Hafner put up fantastic walk-rates partly because of his great plate discipline and party because of the unwillingness of pitchers to challenge him with pitches over the plate. Over the past three seasons Hafner's strikeout rates have increased incrementally each year (21.2% last season) while his BB-rates have been on the decline (his 9.8% rate last season was a career low). What I find interesting is that his decline has come almost entirely as the result of his performance against left-handed pitchers. His line against right-handed hitters in 2011 was .302/.404/.482 with a 13.1 BB% and a 20.8 K%, right in line with what he has done each of the past three years. But against lefties he dropped to a .233/.259/.379 line, with a remarkably low 1.9 BB% (dropping precipitously over the past three seasons) and a 22.2 K%. Travis Hafner can't hit lefties anymore.
And more importantly, Hafner shouldn't hit against lefties in 2012. Despite his struggles, Hafner still logged 108 plate appearances against lefties last season, good for more than 29% of his total PAs. This was actually up from the previous two seasons in which he had faced about 24% lefties. One of the reasons the Indians need to have a right-handed bat on the team who can hit lefties is so that Travis Hafner doesn't have to face them. Sadly, of the guys most likely to fill the role of Hafner's replacement against lefties (Duncan, Cunningham, Santana) - none of them really fit the bill of lefty-specialist. But even if they aren't fantastic against lefties, merely being good, which they all have at some point, could represent a significant incremental improvement in the 2012 Tribe.
67 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Though I should add on to my final line, each of the three guys I mentioned would likely perform considerably better than Hafner did against lefties in 2011.
Possibly you should amend to expand a bit on that point. The last sentence kind of negates the rest of the article.
Back of the envelope calculation:
80 plate appearances that went to Hafner go instead to one of the three I mention. The production in those 80 ABs goes from something on the order of .650 OPS (.275/.375) to a number around .800 (.350/.450). If I’m plugging the numbers in right, that is something like a net +10-15 runs, or about 1 win.
So giving Hafner’s ABs against lefty starters to any of the three I mentioned is a good idea.
by APV on Feb 7, 2012 1:26 PM EST up reply actions
To put Hafner’s 1.9% BB-rate against lefties in perspective, Orlando Cabrera’s walk rate last year was double what Hafner did against lefties.
Could be. But wouldn’t you expect to see more of an increase in his K-rate, either overall or by platoon?
by APV on Feb 7, 2012 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
You might, but Hafner is a lot better than average at making contact.
by Jay on Feb 8, 2012 2:00 AM EST up reply actions
Hafner’s splits against lefty starters are better than his platoon split totals; I’m not sure that his bad 2011 should be viewed as definitive. The end of his dominance dates from 2007, and here are his GS, OBP and SA numbers from then:
2007. 42, 333/390
2008. 13, 302/244
2009. 15, 349/571
2010. 16, 411/397
2011. 19, 276/370
His BABIPs versus lefty starters, always over 300 through 2006, have been 246, 273, 282, 333 and 271 in the last five years. iSO, 259 through 2006, has been 170 since, 138 and 135 over the last two years.
I expect he’ll get another dozen or more starts versus lefties this year.
I hope you are wrong. The total collapse in walks against lefties, coupled with the basically stable strikeout and power numbers, suggests to me that Hafner is simply not set up and seeing the ball well versus lefties. I don’t know if that is a product of injuries and deterioration or a correctable batting approach issue, but if it is the former, I don’t see much point in throwing him out there against lefties. I tried, and failed to find readily available numbers on how Hafner performs with and without rest, having vague recollections of someone pointing out that he does better, particularly in in the power department, when he has had time off. If my recollections are right, the other advantage of sitting Hafner against lefties is getting more out of him against right handed pitchers.
Admittedly, this whole argument is one of those fantasy GM style discussions completed disconnected from the actual player and game.
by APV on Feb 7, 2012 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
Sixteen starts after days off—including two, I guess, DL stints. 71 plate appearances, 297/366/438/804. In the rest of his season, which includes pinch-hitting, he was 276/360/452/812.
I know less than nothing, of course, but I’m guessing Acta is not one to totally eschew the old idea of letting his players get into a groove, though he doesn’t seem like one to put up with prolonged pooch-screwing.
“Prolonged Pooch-screwing”
Seems like just yesterday I got married. Miss those days.
This is a euphamism, no?
"Mixed emotions. Rather see him hit PEDroia [with that pitch]. I don’t care if he is in the dugout"
by Gradysmanldy on Feb 10, 2012 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
“Screw the pooch” was the bowdlerized version of a phrase coined by test pilots in the 1960s, or perhaps earlier, and indicated one had made a memorable mistake. The Mercury astronauts, test pilots all, used the phrase (often at Gus Grissom’s expense, apparently) and it was popularized by Tom Wolfe in his 1988 book about them, “The Right Stuff.” I found a few instances of the phrase making it into print before that, the earliest being in Laurence Gonzales’ 1981 novel, “The Last Deal.”
by YoDaddyWags on Feb 10, 2012 12:27 PM EST up reply actions
Wow. Props.
"Mixed emotions. Rather see him hit PEDroia [with that pitch]. I don’t care if he is in the dugout"
by Gradysmanldy on Feb 10, 2012 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
I couldn’t agree more. I have no space in my brain for these true and interesting facts because it forces me kick out false and uninteresting non-facts. That creates an imbalance in my skull that gives me headaches.
by Bogalusa Bomber on Feb 11, 2012 1:24 AM EST up reply actions
Is SA the same as SLG?
No trend evident in the BABIP. ISO disturbingly low. If Hafer’s best outcomes against LHP are squib singles—and it looks like that has been the case for the last couple years, along with the declining BB and rising K rates noted by APV—that’s all we need to know about his effectiveness.
You never know, Hafner straight-up might not make the team this year. We have plenty of LHH who can play positions.
You never know, Hafner straight-up might not make the team this year. We have plenty of LHH who can play positions.
Highly unlikely. Hafner is still a consistently above-average hitter, and the team is still going to pay him a large amount of money. The Tribe’s roster is not so overwhelmingly full of hitting talent as to warrant paying Hafner to leave. I could imagine an unlikely scenario in which Hafner played well enough to warrant a trade to a contending AL-team in need of a left-handed DH bat.
by APV on Feb 7, 2012 1:33 PM EST up reply actions
You never know what situation might arise where an NL team might use him as well. Obviously, we aren’t going to see compensation like we would for an AL trade, but if the Phillies can pay Jim Thome, anything can happen.
Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.
I think the difference is that while Thome has shown he is a terrible defender, Hafner has shown he physically breaks himself when he tries to defend.
by APV on Feb 7, 2012 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
I’m not sure Chuck is in hiding so much as he might be buried under ice and snow in central Asia
by APV on Feb 7, 2012 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I doubt the Indians haven’t noticed he can’t hit lefties. I’d guess they are letting him play to maintain hope that he can build enough trade value to be dumped.
Eliminating personal preference, the market tells us his salary is worth something in the neighborhood of a CJ Wilson type of starter. The Indians would be a healthy Choo and slight bounce back from Ubaldo away from being a serious contender if you add 90% of what CJ Wilson was last year.
Hafner is an enormous anchor. Getting rid of him is at least as important as anything else going on in the org. If a number of low probability events put them in position to capitalize on the additional win by benching Haf vs lefties, I’m sure they’ll do it. Building his trade value to get rid of him is much more likely to pay off.
Most arguments are really about context.
I think the Indians have known for awhile that this year was the only one where we might be able to trade him, and even then not all that likely in my opinion.
I’d pay 7 or 8 mil of his remaining contract to see if the Yanks would give up Nova or a package of Warren and Phelps to get him.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 8, 2012 5:02 PM EST up reply actions
Nova gets a sore forearm, Hafner starts out hot and their offense is just good, instead of amazing. Indians pay 8 mil of his remaining salary.
It’s unlikely, but could happen.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 9, 2012 10:15 AM EST up reply actions
I doubt the Indians haven’t noticed he can’t hit lefties.
Haha, I’m sorry, but really?
Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.
Started out saying something else, then reverse, reversed it.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 8, 2012 5:00 PM EST up reply actions
I was waiting for the flea flicker.
Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.
by USSChoo on Feb 8, 2012 5:23 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
A big no on trading Hafner this year. If he’s hitting, then you keep him because the Indians should be decent this year and if things go well they’ll be contending.
If he’s not hitting, then no one’s going to want him anyways. They could trade him in that case, but don’t expect much for him at all.
I’d deal him as a pure salary dump, getting nothing in return. If he can recover to be even decent vs lefties, he’s not a bad DH. For someone taking over a 2 year commitment, he’d be in the ball park of market value.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 8, 2012 6:10 PM EST up reply actions
Not this year. We need him to hit this year. No reason to be pinching pennies when you are supposed to contend.
Ah, ok. True true.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 8, 2012 6:25 PM EST up reply actions
Getting rid of Hafner isn’t a goal. The money is already sunk, we’ve already failed to allocate it elsewhere for 2012.
It is incredibly unlikely that we’ll shed even half of his 2012 salary, and we’re definitely stuck with that 2013 buyout.
by Jay on Feb 8, 2012 5:31 PM EST up reply actions
It can be recovered if he starts hitting lefties, thus my point.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 8, 2012 6:11 PM EST up reply actions
No, it really can’t. He won’t have the chance to hit lefties long enough to prove anything to anyone. Again, the number of really dumb GMs has seriously dwindled.
by Jay on Feb 9, 2012 1:29 AM EST up reply actions
Is it possible his injuries have only hampered his swing vs lefties? It’s not the same swing.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 9, 2012 10:40 AM EST up reply actions
What continues to confuse me is how isolated and huge the difference in BB% is between right and left. The differences in ISO between right and left for Hafner are negligible. Last year there was a big different in his overall batting line, but that had a lot to do with a .100+ differential in BABIP, a difference that wasn’t there in 2010. But the difference in BB% numbers has been there since 2009 and has gotten worse every year. Even his K-rates are pretty much the same against right and left. I keep coming back to something about how Hafner sees the ball against lefties.
Maybe pitchers found a new “hole” in his post injury swing. He can hit everything else the same, but if the pitcher locates to his new weakness, he’s powerless.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 10, 2012 12:41 AM EST up reply actions
An analysis of his BABIP or average per hitting zone vs lefties might tell a story.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 10, 2012 12:41 AM EST up reply actions
Apparently he was offered a scholarship to play basketball at North Dakota state. Considering his height, he must not have been nearly as bulky in those days.
Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.
The wine & gold should put him on the low block and see what he can do.
by JulioBernazard on Feb 9, 2012 1:26 PM EST up reply actions
Still, he’s what, 6’2’’-6’3"? Had to have some sort of quickness.
Matt LaPorta is the bane of my existence.
Even Case’s basketball team is mostly taller than that.
"An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools" -Hemingway
by notthatnoise on Feb 10, 2012 12:07 AM EST up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Let's Go Tribe
Related FanShots on Let's Go Tribe
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
Featured Stories
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
- Benches clear at Fenway as Red Sox-Rays rivalry heats up
- Keeping good company: Albert Pujols becomes fourth-youngest player to hit 450 home runs
- Giancarlo Stanton misses cutoff man, and Logan Morrison is thankful he did (Video)
