With a rare day off of work and the excitement of Spring Training in my veins, I decided to channel my inner nerd and spend the day simulating fake baseball game's. I used whatifsports.com, a simulation website that has a full database of every player, from every individual season, from every individual team - to create my 2013 Cleveland Indians simulation results. Whatifsports allows the user to build a "dream team" so I went through the depth charts of each 30 teams, came up with what I thought would be the closest opening day roster for each team, looked at the Indians 2013 schedule and simulated all 162 games.
I did this just for fun - and I have the results saved so that at the end of the season I can see exactly how useful (if at all) this information really is. What I did certainly has flaws - their are no injuries on whatifsports simulation so I used the same 25 man roster for all 162 games. Fatigue is off - so I can use Lonnie Chisenhall from last season at 3B for the entire season. However I didn't play any player the full 162 - I allowed occasional days off for the regulars and tried to get the reserves around the number of plate appearances I expect them to get this season. While compiling this roster I mainly just used each players 2012 season, but I looked at each player's past three seasons and tried to do my best judgement on how I think their 2013 season will most closely resemble a year of data from one of their past three seasons.
After lots of thought and second guessing, here is the roster I decided to choose to play out my simulation:
- Carlos Santana - .260/.372/437 with 25 HR and 2 SB. Allowed 87 SB to 23 CS in 118 starts at C, 27 at DH.
- Nick Swisher - .267/.358/.453 with 18 HR and 1 SB. Started 18 games in LF, 43 in RF and 82 at 1B. -1 RS.
- Jason Kipnis - .267/.338/.407 with 17 HR and 28 SB. Saved 8 runs in 147 starts at 2B.
- Lonnie Chisenahll - .273/.316/.432 with 16 HR and 4 SB. Saved 7 runs in 128 starts at 3B.
- Asdrubal Cabrera - .276/.333/.434 with 14 HR and 11 SB. Saved 14 runs in 150 starts at SS.
- Michael Brantley - .296/.348/.408 with 7 HR and 16 SB. Saved 11 runs in 144 starts at LF.
- Michael Bourn - .283/.347/.393 with 5 HR and 53 SB. Saved 14 runs in 152 starts in CF.
- Drew Stubbs - .252/.312/.396 with 15 HR and 37 SB. Saved 15 runs in 119 starts at RF and 10 in CF.
- Mark Reynolds - .232/.331/.452 with 31 HR and 4 SB. Saved 5 runs in 80 games at 1B, 0 in 63 games at DH.
- Lou Marson - .236/.303/.285 with 1 HR and 4 SB. Allowed 47 SB to 21 CS in 44 starts at C.
- Mike Aviles - .268/.307/.395 with 5 HR and 12 SB. Saved 6 runs in 15 starts at 2B, 34 at 3B and 12 at SS.
- Jason Giambi - .243/.361/.425 with 8 HR and 0 SB. Started 41 games at DH.
- Ryan Raburn - .250/.292/.405 with 4 HR and 1 SB. Started 31 games at DH.
- Justin Masterson - 234 IP, 3.63 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, .255 OAV
- Ubaldo Jimenez - 197.1 IP, 4.40 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, .258 OAV
- Brett Myers - 214.2 IP, 4.14 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, .264 OAV
- Scott Kazmir - 187 IP, 4.43 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, .257 OAV
- Carlos Carrasco - 181.33 IP, 4.52 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, .278 OAV
- Matt Capps - 58 IP, 3.28 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
- Rich Hill - 44 IP, 4.09 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
- Bryan Shaw - 58.1 IP, 4.29 ERA, 1.43 WHIP
- Diasuke Matsuzaka - 147.2 IP, 4.33 ERA, 1.37 WHIP
- Joe Smith - 63 IP, 2.54 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
- Vinnie Pestano - 65.2 IP, 2.59 ERA, 1.08 WHIP
- Chris Perez - 61 IP, 3.26 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 41/48 SV
There wasn't enough data on guys like Trevor Bauer, Cody Allen and Nick Hagadone to get a good simulation out of them so I'm not sure how accurate I guessed the 25 man roster. I'm not sure if there is anything in here or not - probably not but if anything else hopefully it was fun to read. Total record of simulation was 84-78.