FanPost

27 Games Later Part Deux


Recap: I previously posted why I like to look at baseball seasons in 27 game sections. 6 to be exact. As we are at the half way point, here are the numbers to help gauge the pace of a team

For a team to finish with 78 wins and 84 losses they would go 13-14 in each 27 game set.

84-78: 14-13

90-72: 15-12

96-66: 16-11

Thus, you expect playoff teams (90+ wins) not only to have zero sets below .500, but they are more than a game above .500 (semantic discussions on this not allowed) every set.

So far the Indians sets have been:

Set 1 (Opening Day - May 4): Opening series at Toronto, 8 games against the AL East, 2 series with the CWS, a series with Houston, Philly, and KC. They went 14-13, and ended the set on a 6 game win streak.

Set 2 (May 5 - May 31): a 4 game sweep of Oakland, Seattle, a series win against Detroit, , getting swept by Detroit, and a six game losing streak. They went 15-12.

Set 3 (June 1 - June 29). This set included an 8 game losing streak, including sweeps at the hands of Detroit and the Yankees, and splitting a series at Baltimore. There were also 3 game series with Texas, Washington, KC, Minnesota, and the first 3 of the 4 game series at CWS.

So we have

14-13, 15-12, ???

Tribe went 14-13 again. That brings us to two sets of 84-win pace and 1 of 90-win pace. It's encouraging that with all the streaks ( a 6 game and an 8 game losing streak; but also winning 18 of 24), the Indians are still above .500 in each set. If we set the playoffs at 90 wins, the Indians have to finish 47-34. That means more or less two of the three remaining sets should be 16-11 and one should be 15-12.

That's a little tough to pull off. But we have a somewhat favorable schedule:

Set 4 - KC Series x 2, 4 game series vs. DET, and TOR at home. Then we have MIN, SEA, Texas, and 4 games against the White Sox. That's winning 2 of 3 in every 3 game series and splitting the series against Detroit and Chicago. Doable, and there is a potential for a MIN or SEA (or even another CWS sweep in there) to help us against the DET, TOR, and TEX series.

Set 5 - Miami, another 4 game Detroit series, 6 games with the Angels, 6 with the Twins, 3 oakland, 3 Atlanta, and then 2 more at Detroit. This is probably the set to go 15-12, as we would have to win 2 of 3 in every series, then one of the last five games (3 ATL, 2 DET). Again doable, but challenging.

Set 6 - September brings us only 1 DET game, but 3 baltimore. But after that it's 3 against the Mets, 6 KC, 6 CWS, 4 Houston, and 4 Minnesota - so not only is 16 wins possible (or likely) but if the Tribe gets hot, it gives them a chance to make up ground if they fall short in set 4 or 5.

For the next two months, root for being 74-61 on August 31. That will make September competitive and keep us in the Wild Card race (hopefully) - and maybe the division? For now the playoffs remain alive, but could easily be derailed. Here's to a second half that's as enjoyable as the first.

SB Nation Featured Video
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Let's Go Tribe

You must be a member of Let's Go Tribe to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Let's Go Tribe. You should read them.

Join Let's Go Tribe

You must be a member of Let's Go Tribe to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Let's Go Tribe. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker