Indians 2014 preview and predictions: Lonnie Chisenhall

Lonnie Chisenhall after one of his homers in his hot September - John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

Next up is the player who has had a lot of ink spilled over him already this spring, Lonnie Chisenhall.

This post is part of a contest in which you could win a free Let's Go Tribe t-shirt. In order to enter, just copy and paste the template at the bottom of this post into the comments, then fill in each category with your own prediction for how this player will do in 2014. Position players and pitchers will be featured as two separate contests. You need not submit predictions for every single player in either contest in order to win, but doing so will increase your chances, as points will be awarded separately for each player.

For position players, you'll be asked to predict each player's plate appearances (PA), home runs (HR), stolen bases (SB), batting average (BA), on-base percentage (OBP), and slugging percentage (SLG).

Find every previous entry in the series here.

The comments on each post in this series will remain open through Saturday, March 29.

Lonnie Chisenhall

2013 Recap

The 2008 first round pick had an up and down season. He struggled in April/May with a .604 OPS and 22 strikeouts compared to just 3 walks in 99 PA. He was sent down to Columbus and promptly hit the cover off the ball, posting a line of .390/.456/.676 in 125 PA, earning a return trip to Cleveland in June. Playing mostly against right-handed starters the rest of the season, he hit .231/.279/.421 in 209 PA. He had a pretty poor August that brought those numbers down, but he helped the Indians clinch a playoff spot by hitting .270/.325/.595 in September and was one of the few to do well in the Wild Card Game, going 3 for 4. His .142 ISO (isolated power) for the season is really good, he needs a better batting eye though (and maybe better luck).

Recent Stats

Year Age G PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
2011 22 66 223 27 54 13 0 7 22 1 0 .255 .284 .415 .699 94
2012 23 43 151 16 38 6 1 5 16 2 1 .268 .311 .430 .741 107
2013 24 94 308 30 65 17 0 11 36 1 0 .225 .270 .398 .668 88
3 Yrs 203 682 73 157 36 1 23 74 4 1 .244 .284 .411 .694 94

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com

2014 Preview and Projections

Obviously it would be great if he continues that hot September (and the talk of Carlos Santana taking his job would vanish), but a 920 OPS is not sustainable, as he is not Miguel Cabrera. A few more walks and positive regression in his BABIP (which was just .243 last year), and his OPS would jump to the mid 700s, which would likely make him the team's fourth or fifth best hitter (after Santana, Jason Kipnis, Nick Swisher, and maybe Yan Gomes). So far this spring, he has shown the ability to take a walk (small-sample warnings apply!!), but until the season really starts, I don't think we will know anything. He should get all of this year to prove himself as our third baseman of the future. He will be a first-year arbitration player in 2015.

Here are a variety of projections for Chisenhall's 2014 season, all of which are available on his player page at FanGraphs, where you can find more detail, if you're so inclined:

System

PA

HR

SB

BA

OBP

SLG

Steamer

419

14

3

252

303

424

Oliver

600

22

5

264

316

449

ZIPS

461

13

2

258

307

413

My Two Cents

I think Steamer and ZIPS are a tad low, but Oliver might be a bit high. I think he'll finish closer to the Oliver numbers though: 525 plate appearances, with 17 home runs, 4 stolen bases, and a line of .260/.323/.432.

Your Turn

You're welcome just to pull numbers out of thin air, but if you want to commute the rate stats more scientifically, here are some easy to use links that will help you with batting average, with on-base percentage, and with slugging percentage.

To submit your entry, simply copy-and-paste the text below into a new comment, then fill in your predictions:

  • PA:
  • HR:
  • SB:
  • BA:
  • OBP:
  • SLG:
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