Indians 2014 preview and predictions: Carlos Santana

Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

What's Carlos going to do in 2014?

This post is part of a contest in which you could win a free Let's Go Tribe t-shirt. In order to enter, just copy and paste the template at the bottom of this post into the comments, then fill in each category with your own prediction for how this player will do in 2014. Position players and pitchers will be featured as two separate contests. You need not submit predictions for every single player in either contest in order to win, but doing so will increase your chances, as points will be awarded separately for each player.

For position players, you'll be asked to predict each player's plate appearances (PA), home runs (HR), stolen bases (SB), batting average (BA), on-base percentage (OBP), and slugging percentage (SLG).

Find every previous entry in the series here.

The comments on each post in this series will remain open through Saturday, March 29.

Carlos Santana

2013 Recap

Santana was the Indians' best hitter in 2013, leading the team in OBP, SLG, OPS+, walks, and extra-base hits, while finishing second in runs, RBI, and home runs. After spending three years as the Tribe's primary catcher though, Carlos was transitioned out of that spot during the second half of last season, and he started more games as the team's DH than at any other position after the All-Star break, while also playing first base semi-regularly. He didn't hit quite as well as a DH, and expressed a preference for being on the field, but still put up strong enough numbers to finish 15th in American League MVP voting.

Recent Stats

Year Age Tm G PA AB H 2B 3B HR SB BB BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
2011 25 CLE 155 658 552 132 35 2 27 5 97 .239 .351 .457 .808 126
2012 26 CLE 143 609 507 128 27 2 18 3 91 .252 .365 .420 .785 121
2013 27 CLE 154 642 541 145 39 1 20 3 93 .268 .377 .455 .832 137

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com

2014 Preview and Projections

As you've probably heard, Santana spent much of his offseason playing third base in the Dominican Winter League, in an attempt to transform himself into a viable option at the hot corner for the Tribe. He'll be allowed to play there some during spring training as well, in addition to spending some time behind the plate. It remains to be seen how much time he'll spend at various positions in 2014, and it's impossible to know just what impact his position will have on his offensive performance.

Here are a variety of projections for Santana's 2014 season, all of which are available on his player page at FanGraphs, where you can find more detail, if you're so inclined:

System PA HR SB BA OBP SLG
Steamer 630 21 4 .251 .363 .433
Oliver 600 21 2 .262 .363 .447
ZiPS 608 21 4 .258 .370 .455

My Two Cents

I think Carlos is a good bet to post the top hitting numbers on the team again, no matter where he's at on the field. Put me down for 630 plate appearances, with 22 home runs, 3 stolen bases, and a line of .266/.372/.457.

Your Turn

You're welcome just to pull numbers out of thin air, but if you want to commute the rate stats more scientifically, here are some easy to use links that will help you with batting average, with on-base percentage, and with slugging percentage.

There will be an additional post with some "extras" to predict, including how many games in which Santana will play third base, but for now we're just talking offensive production.

To submit your entry, simply copy-and-paste the text below into a new comment, then fill in your predictions:

  • PA:
  • HR:
  • SB:
  • BA:
  • OBP:
  • SLG:
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