FanPost

My 2015 Ballot

I've identified the following players as worthy of enshrinement in the Hall of Fame:

Pitchers:

Randy Johnson

Pedro Martinez

Mike Mussina

Curt Schilling

John Smoltz

Roger Clemens

Position Players:

Barry Bonds

Mark McGwire

Jeff Bagwell

Craig Biggio

Edgar Martinez

Mike Piazza

Tim Raines

Alan Trammel

Larry Walker

That's 6 pitchers and 9 position players, 15 players total. I need to trim 5 players off my ballot. There are a few ways I can go about it, I can pick the 10 best players on the ballot,* I could pick the 10 players least likely to make it into the Hall of Fame (thus raising their vote total for eventual induction), I could vote somewhat strategically, picking the players most likely to get in, to ensure they make it, and free up my ballot next year or I could exclude the steroid guys and make them 'wait' to get in.

*Of course, there are many ways I could go about choosing the BEST players on the ballot, either by career WAR, WAR by position historically, or just gut feeling

As much as I'd like to be entirely practical, I can't bring myself to not vote for Johnson and Martinez, even though I'm almost 100% sure they'll get elected. I think the best method is to elect as many players as possible this year, to free up the ballot next year, so the first three players I can include immediately are:

Randy Johnson
Pedro Martinez
Craig Biggio

Johnson and Martinez are getting in for sure, and should be unanimous, and I want to make sure Biggio gets in this year as well, that's three players on my ballot. There are also some players I'm quite confident wont get elected, by the BBWAA this year or ever, they are:

Alan Trammel
Larry Walker
Mark McGwire
Edgar Martinez

I think they all belong in the Hall of Fame, however, based on their ballot history, and the attitudes of the current electorate, I don't see them every gaining entrance into the Hall through balloting. That leaves eight players for seven spots:

Jeff Bagwell
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Mike Mussina
Mike Piazza
Tim Raines
Curt Schilling
John Smoltz

Of these players Mike Piazza and John Smoltz are the most likely to be inducted next season, so they go on the ballot, giving me:

Craig Biggio
Randy Johnson
Pedro Martinez
Mike Piazza
John Smoltz

Tim Raines and Jeff Bagwell had gained some strong momentum prior to last year's ballot so I think they should be included. It's unclear how the electorate will respond to John Smoltz, his career is quite similar to Curt Schilling's, who did not come close to election, but he also won a Cy Young and spent three excellent seasons as a closer, some think he will be elected first ballot. Of the remaining players I think Roger Clemens is the least likely to be elected, and that gives me an even split between pitchers and hitters, filling out my ballot to:

Jeff Bagwell (HOU, 1B)
Craig Biggio (HOU, 2B)
Barry Bonds (SF, LF)
Randy Johnson (ARI, SP)
Pedro Martinez (BOS, SP)
Mike Mussina (BAL, SP)
Mike Piazza (C, LAD)
Tim Raines (MON, LF)
Curt Schilling (BOS, SP)
John Smoltz (ATL, SP)

My prediction for next year's ballot:

Randy Johnson: 95%
Pedro Martinez: 91
Craig Biggio: 83%
Mike Piazza: 70%
John Smoltz: 70%
Jeff Bagwell: 60%
Tim Raines: 48%
Curt Schilling: 38%
Bonds/Clemens: 33%
Mussina: 20%

Everyone else will fall around the 10-20% mark. Sosa and Big Mac fall off the ballot.

FanPosts are reader-generated, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Covering the Corner or the Covering the Corner staff.