The AL Central is impossible to predict. Seriously, simply too many different possibilities exist to predict the current race. You have the reigning AL Champions in the Royals (luck and all), with their young roster budding with yet untapped potential. You have the reigning Central champs, the Detroit Tigers (warts and all), with their INSANE core: David Price, Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez; I would stack their lineup against anyone’s. You also have the Chicago White Sox, who spent (by my calculations) abazillion dollars and made a frenzy of trades to revamp their roster. Finally, you have the Cleveland Indians, the quiet one in the bunch. The Indians have their advantages as well, the reigning Cy Young Award winner in Corey Kluber and Michael Brantley, arguably the best position player in our division in 2015. However, I would argue, the Indians have one huge advantage over their division rivals: depth.
As it stands, the Indians maintain a solid core of young position players and pitchers. Of course, things start with Michael Brantley and Corey Kluber (two of the best players of 2014). However, they also have other great players under control: Carlos Santana remains an on-base machine and led the league in walks and Yan Gomes is the premier offensive catcher in the AL and an elite pitch framer. Compared to our rivals, we’re in pretty good shape. The Detroit Tigers have David Price anchoring their staff, with Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and J.D. Martinez sliding into the middle of their lineup, the White Sox have the always injure…I mean incredible Chris Sale (many consider him the best starting pitcher in the AL) paired with Jeff Samardzija, to go along with Jose Abreu (who led the league in homeruns last year). Finally, we have the Kansas City Royals, who lack the star power of Detroit and Chicago, but make up for it with plenty of young talent. Danny Duffy and (insert KC pitcher here) are two insanely talented pitchers, and Eric Hosmer and Alex Gordon could both win an MVP. If you look at the best players on each contender, the Indians certainly are at or near the top.
I mean, don’t take my word for it, and consider the stats:
Name |
FIP |
K% |
BB% |
WAR |
Corey Kluber |
2.35 |
28.3% |
5.4% |
7.3 |
David Price |
2.78 |
26.9% |
3.8% |
6.1 |
Chris Sale |
2.57 |
30.4% |
5.7% |
5.4 |
3.60 |
20.3% |
8.8% |
2.8 |
Name |
OBP |
SLG |
wRC+ |
WAR |
Michael Brantley |
.385 |
.506 |
155 |
6.6 |
Miguel Cabrera |
.371* |
.524 |
147 |
5.4 |
Jose Abreu |
.383 |
.581 |
165 |
5.3 |
Alex Gordon |
.351 |
.432 |
122 |
6.6 |
*I am still stunned Michael Brantley reached base more frequently than Miguel Cabrera. I get it was a banner year for Mike and all, but still
Overall, the Tribe’s top players match up quite well with their competition, at least if you look at 2014. Overall, the Indians roster stacks up fairly well against our rivals.
However, this isn’t what makes the Indians interesting in 2015. The Indians starting rotation is still up in the air. Trevor Bauer and Carlos Carrasco are guaranteed spots in the rotation, making a powerful (and young) starting rotation. However, to back them up the Tribe has:
Danny Salazar, an incredible talent with a blazing fastball
TJ House, a young southpaw who befuddled the league in 2015
Zach McAllister, a young arm, with a good fastball and potential
Gavid Floyd, an older pitcher (sadly injured) who could come back to be a solid starter
This doesn’t count Bruce Chen, Shaun Marcum, and Josh Tomlin, all veterans of many Major League campaigns. Nobody in our division comes close to that kind of depth. Why, you may ask, do we care about the 6th starter? Because inevitably a team will lean on their 6th starter; no starting rotation remains intact for an entire season. Consider the 2014 Indians, here’s how our rotation began the year:
Corey Kluber
Carlos Carrasco
Zach McAllister
Danny Salazar
Of course, only one of those pitchers made it through the entire season. Masterson got hurt, and struggled. Carrasco continued his roller coaster career, McAllister ended up in the bullpen and Danny Salazar was demoted. However, despite the rotation remaining in flux until the last two months, the Indians managed to maintain a solid rotation all year round. Why? Depth. First the Indians brought up Trevor Bauer who, while infuriating at times, managed provide average ball for 26 starts. TJ House started 19 games and managed a 3.69 FIP. Overall, the Indians found pitchers to keep them in the game all season long.
In fact, of all the teams in the AL Central only the Royals had five starters make 30 starts. The Tigers had three* and the White Sox only had two, meaning each team, at some point, was forced to rely on their depth options. How does the Tribe’s depth options compare to the rest of the division? Quite well.
*If you include David Price’s time in Tampa Bay they had four
Let’s suppose the Indians starting five this year is Kluber, Carrasco, Bauer, House and McAllister (based on how they’ve pitched this spring, I think this is a safe assumption), that makes Danny Salazar the Tribe’s 6th starter, let’s compare the 6th starters of each contender:
Name |
Age |
FIP |
K% |
BB% |
WAR |
Danny Salazar |
25 |
3.52 |
25.3% |
7.4% |
1.8 |
Klye Lobstein |
26 |
3.82 |
16.5% |
8.5% |
0.5 |
22 |
(DNP) |
(DNP) |
(DNP) |
(DNP) |
|
36 |
5.02 |
15.7% |
8.7% |
0.2 |
There’s no comparison. Salazar is the second youngest, but also the second most experienced, starter in this group, with easily the most talent. Certainly, Carlos Rodon matches Salazar’s talented, but he’s pitched all of 3 professional baseball games in his career. Kyle Lobstein nearly matched Salazar’s FIP, but with far worse peripherals, and less raw talent. Chris Young is old, and hasn’t pitched a good season since his All-Star campaign in 2007.
Obviously, far more goes into a team than depth, and the players at top of your depth chart make a huge difference as well. However, the Indians can match their Central rivals for talent at the top of the roster, but their depth will be the key to the season. Frankly, I wish the Indians had done more to bolster their depth, our starters are still quite young, but compared to the rest of our division we’re doing quite well.