All of Indiansdom was electrified Tuesday with the news that Mike Clevinger would be making his first Major League start Wednesday afternoon in Cincinnati. Now that the New Pitcher Smell has worn off Cody Anderson and he decided to turn into a meatball-pitching machine this past winter, the throng needs a new hero to heap hope on, someone they can celebrate and sing songs of potential.
So Clevinger it is. Which is fun, it could be rad. Could be hideous. But one thing is for sure. It’s going to be something.
In the preseason, Let's Go Tribe did a crowdsourced voting of the Indians’ top prospects, and Clevinger came in third behind Bradley Zimmer and Clint Frazier. They're going to be undoubtedly superstars, so it's good company. It's nice for him to be in such high regard, but really, that’s some painful recency bias. Breakout seasons in the minors can be sudden like that, and it’s tough to make sense of putting a guy like Brady Aiken above a more proven pitcher like Clevinger, but prospect lists don’t make real sense anyway. They're often based on talent and potential, and until like eight months ago it was Aiken and Rob Kaminsky who were the stud youngsters. But Clevinger spun magic for a year, so people are understandably jacked up for this because the hype train has boiled up to full steam. A new pitcher on the Tribe coming out of near-nowhere that can throw 97 is a brilliant barreling journey into the unknown. Doesn't that sound exciting?
I’ve read dozens of scouting reports of him over the last several months, and the way none of them agree is the best part about baseball. It’s why we know nothing. He definitely throws in the mid-90’s, or is it the low to mid-90’s? FanGraphs said when grading the prospects he doesn’t have the stuff or movement on the fastball to pound the zone,though, so who knows. The key is, he threw 97 one time. And his secondary stuff is anywhere from borderline plus to middling, needing work and refinement. So maybe he’s shutdown. Maybe he’s TJ House with a little velocity. I’d take that at least. We just need to see to believe.
There is no one way to judge how a minor leaguer will pan out, simple as that. The best touchstone are often the walk rate, strikeout rate, home run rate, just basic batted ball stuff. Clevinger gave scouts and fans a nice dose of excitement last year when he struck out 22.7 percent of hitters, walked only 6.3 percent and allowed eight home runs in 158 innings. That’s fun to look at. But was it a ruse?
This year the strikeout rate (24.7%) is strong, but the walk rate (11.6%) has spiked troublingly, and the homers have held firm. The walk thing is a problem too because 2015 was the only time since he’s been an Indian that he’s been below 10 percent. FanGraphs suggests walk rate normalizes at about 170 batters faced, and this year Clevinger has seen 146. Last year it was 639, which is much more comfortable, but was it a hot year? In 2014, when he was in High-A and facing worse competition and should have had no trouble blowing guys away, he walked 10.9 percent of batters, of 248 that he saw. So what is real? What is going on here?
As to the home run rate, he did have the second lowest HR/9 of Columbus Clippers pitchers who had thrown more than 25 innings. I’m confident he’ll at least keep the ball in the yard. As much as one can expect a rookie to at any rate. There are some bomb launchers on the Reds and Great American Ballpark is rude to all pitchers, but I’ll allow it.
The biggest positive about Clevinger is that he’s done the one thing Anderson never could -- strike guys out. Anderson’s weird uptick into the low 20’s with his K-rate in Triple-A last year was suspected to be an outlier and is being increasingly proven right. To add to that, he throws an awfully straight fastball. Even if his velocity has ticked up to 96 at times, as Nathan Eovaldi has proven, it doesn’t matter how hard you throw if it just comes in on a line. It gets turned around just as fast. Clevinger throws harder and reportedly with movement, AND may have an out pitch or two. As much as I liked Cody’s curveball and the developing changeup, it wasn't there, at least not yet. He needs to grow as a pitcher mentally, learn the strategy of winning the battle of the strike zone, when to throw what, that sort of thing. And not groove fastballs. That is a key.
Clevinger is so young, and it’s unlikely he’s any more of a "pitcher" than Anderson was. If he can get by on his stuff that’s wonderful, and he should be able to do that for a bit. But then that old devil Reckless Optimism shows up and makes me believe taht all these walks he’s given up this year aren’t because he’s good enough to get guys out by pounding the zone. In fact, it's the opposite. He's walking four guys per nine innings because he's trying to beat batters with his mind rather than just his arm. That he's expected this call up, and was just trying new things, new sequences, giving himself situations to pitch out of, getting ready for the big time. Playing the puppet master, if you will. We don’t know. It could be Clevinger is some sort of brilliant wunderkind or read up on the theories of Effective Velocity and can execute them better than Trevor Bauer. Or he just throws too many balls. This is the magic of the Brush of Potential.
We all want to see him do some sort of poor man’s Strasburg Debut, when the Washington pitcher struck out 14 in seven innings. Something more realistic is allowed in this dream, like nine strikeouts over six with an unearned run would be awesome. More realistically, he’ll likely allow three runs in five or six, strike out his innings’ number of batters, and skate on to better days ahead as he grows. Or he gets his Welcome to the Show moment, and gives up 12 home runs in the first inning because Francona had to run to the bathroom and isn’t there to pull the pitcher. Pick one. Anything is possible in this new Clevinger-rich world.
He does have great hair, though. This is unassailable.